Owning Your View of Risk in a Changing Market

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Not all risk is created equal. The most successful insurers uncover opportunities amid increasing global uncertainty when armed with a deep understanding of risk. Learn more about taking control of your modeling to: - Avoid “personal” catastrophe events - Identify unique opportunities for your business - Interact more productively with regulators and rating agencies

1Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. December 15, 2015
OWNING YOUR VIEW OF RISK IN A
CHANGING MARKET
Mark Cravens – Vice President, Professional Services
December 10, 2015

2Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. December 15, 2015
AGENDA
CONCEPT
IMPACT
ELEMENTS
PROCESS
What does it mean to “Own Your View of Risk”?
Benefits of enabling your view of risk
Key components in building a view of risk practice
Building, evolving, and refining your practice

3Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. December 15, 2015
Introduction

4Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. December 15, 2015
WHAT DOES IT MEAN TO OWN
YOUR VIEW OF RISK?
Know Your View
 Understand your unique business attributes
 Clarify and prioritize goals and challenges
 Identify practical and effective risk and business
management options

5Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. December 15, 2015
WHAT DOES IT MEAN TO OWN
YOUR VIEW OF RISK
Own Your Risk
 Establish a practice to quantify, qualify, and manage risk,
uncertainty, and volatility
– Information development
– Analytical and empirical
– Interpretation and synthesis
 Respect and reflect the variances in prospective business
behavior

6Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. December 15, 2015
Oakland
Firestorm 1991
Insurance Loss: $2.9 billion (2014 dollars)
Source: Aon Benfield
Exposure concentration | Economic variance

7Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. December 15, 2015
Northridge
Earthquake 1994
Insurance Loss: $24.4 billion (2014 dollars)
Vulnerability | Unexpected losses
Source: Insurance Information Institute

8Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. December 15, 2015
World Trade
Center 2001
Insurance Loss: $43.4 billion (2014 dollars)
Clash | Information response
Source: Insurance Information Institute

9Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. December 15, 2015
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
RoE in Extreme Catastrophe Years
(‘01, ‘04, ‘05, ‘08, ‘11, ‘12)
RoEinMildCatastropheYears
(‘00,‘02,‘03,‘06,‘07,‘09,‘10)
Performance vs. Catastrophe Risk
Superior
risk-reward
performance
Below-average
performance in
benign years
Below-average
performance in
bad catastrophe
years
DEMONSTRATED VALUE

10Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. December 15, 2015
ELEMENTS OF A VIEW OF RISK
Data
Development, detail, consistency,
exceptions
Quality
Extension/Integration

11Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. December 15, 2015
ELEMENTS OF A VIEW OF RISK
Data
Development, detail, consistency,
exceptions
Quality
Extension/Integration
Exposure
Hazard/Risk
Prospective behavior
Accumulations

12Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. December 15, 2015
ELEMENTS OF A VIEW OF RISK
Data
Development, detail, consistency,
exceptions
Quality
Extension/Integration
Correlation
Perils/Events
Contingent risk
Clash
Exposure
Hazard/Risk
Prospective behavior
Accumulations

13Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. December 15, 2015
ELEMENTS OF A VIEW OF RISK
Data
Development, detail, consistency,
exceptions
Quality
Extension/Integration
Correlation
Perils/Events
Contingent risk
Clash
Volatility
Sensitivities/Variability
Uncertainty
Business parameters
Exposure
Hazard/Risk
Prospective behavior
Accumulations

14Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. December 15, 2015
ELEMENTS OF YOUR OWN VIEW OF RISK
Data
Exposure
Correlation
Volatility
All insurance carriers have unique business
dimensions…
– Underwriting appetite
– Distribution channel
– Producer relationships
– Coverage forms
– Pricing approach
– Large loss(es) influence
– Claims settlement approach

15Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. December 15, 2015
EXAMPLE APPROACH TOWARDS OWNING
A VIEW OF CATASTROPHE RISK
Stage 1:
Current
State
Data and quality
Exposure management
Modeled risk
Stage 2:
Initial View
Underwriter experience
Expert opinion (e.g.,
modeling companies)
Historical industry
findings
Stage 3:
Additional
Analyses
Claims analysis
Sensitivity tests
Multiple models
VIEW OF RISK

16Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. December 15, 2015
EXAMPLE APPROACH TOWARDS OWNING
A VIEW OF CATASTROPHE RISK
Stage 1:
Current
State
Data and quality
Exposure management
Modeled risk
Stage 2:
Initial View
Underwriter experience
Expert opinion (e.g.,
modeling companies)
Historical industry
findings
Stage 3:
Additional
Analyses
Claims analysis
Sensitivity tests
Multiple models
VIEW OF RISK
Business Benefits
Risk Selection and Pricing | Capacity Management | Post-Event Insight

17Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. December 15, 2015
INVESTING: ENABLING BUSINESS GOALS
GOAL: Access better business more efficiently
DATA EXPOSURE CORRELATION VOLATILITY
Identify superior risk profiles
more rapidly
Establish criteria to drive
target portfolio performance
Reduce potential for
surprises

18Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. December 15, 2015
Summary
Owning your view of risk
in a changing market
Escalating
Need
View of Risk =
Unique
Business
Effective
Solution
Design Is Key

19Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. December 15, 2015
QUESTIONS?
For more information, contact Ryan Neugebauer at
Ryan.Neugebauer@rms.com or sales@rms.com.

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Owning Your View of Risk in a Changing Market

1. 1Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. December 15, 2015 OWNING YOUR VIEW OF RISK IN A CHANGING MARKET Mark Cravens – Vice President, Professional Services December 10, 2015

2. 2Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. December 15, 2015 AGENDA CONCEPT IMPACT ELEMENTS PROCESS What does it mean to “Own Your View of Risk”? Benefits of enabling your view of risk Key components in building a view of risk practice Building, evolving, and refining your practice

4. 4Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. December 15, 2015 WHAT DOES IT MEAN TO OWN YOUR VIEW OF RISK? Know Your View  Understand your unique business attributes  Clarify and prioritize goals and challenges  Identify practical and effective risk and business management options

5. 5Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. December 15, 2015 WHAT DOES IT MEAN TO OWN YOUR VIEW OF RISK Own Your Risk  Establish a practice to quantify, qualify, and manage risk, uncertainty, and volatility – Information development – Analytical and empirical – Interpretation and synthesis  Respect and reflect the variances in prospective business behavior

6. 6Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. December 15, 2015 Oakland Firestorm 1991 Insurance Loss: $2.9 billion (2014 dollars) Source: Aon Benfield Exposure concentration | Economic variance

7. 7Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. December 15, 2015 Northridge Earthquake 1994 Insurance Loss: $24.4 billion (2014 dollars) Vulnerability | Unexpected losses Source: Insurance Information Institute

8. 8Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. December 15, 2015 World Trade Center 2001 Insurance Loss: $43.4 billion (2014 dollars) Clash | Information response Source: Insurance Information Institute

9. 9Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. December 15, 2015 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% RoE in Extreme Catastrophe Years (‘01, ‘04, ‘05, ‘08, ‘11, ‘12) RoEinMildCatastropheYears (‘00,‘02,‘03,‘06,‘07,‘09,‘10) Performance vs. Catastrophe Risk Superior risk-reward performance Below-average performance in benign years Below-average performance in bad catastrophe years DEMONSTRATED VALUE

11. 11Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. December 15, 2015 ELEMENTS OF A VIEW OF RISK Data Development, detail, consistency, exceptions Quality Extension/Integration Exposure Hazard/Risk Prospective behavior Accumulations

12. 12Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. December 15, 2015 ELEMENTS OF A VIEW OF RISK Data Development, detail, consistency, exceptions Quality Extension/Integration Correlation Perils/Events Contingent risk Clash Exposure Hazard/Risk Prospective behavior Accumulations

13. 13Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. December 15, 2015 ELEMENTS OF A VIEW OF RISK Data Development, detail, consistency, exceptions Quality Extension/Integration Correlation Perils/Events Contingent risk Clash Volatility Sensitivities/Variability Uncertainty Business parameters Exposure Hazard/Risk Prospective behavior Accumulations

14. 14Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. December 15, 2015 ELEMENTS OF YOUR OWN VIEW OF RISK Data Exposure Correlation Volatility All insurance carriers have unique business dimensions… – Underwriting appetite – Distribution channel – Producer relationships – Coverage forms – Pricing approach – Large loss(es) influence – Claims settlement approach

15. 15Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. December 15, 2015 EXAMPLE APPROACH TOWARDS OWNING A VIEW OF CATASTROPHE RISK Stage 1: Current State Data and quality Exposure management Modeled risk Stage 2: Initial View Underwriter experience Expert opinion (e.g., modeling companies) Historical industry findings Stage 3: Additional Analyses Claims analysis Sensitivity tests Multiple models VIEW OF RISK

16. 16Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. December 15, 2015 EXAMPLE APPROACH TOWARDS OWNING A VIEW OF CATASTROPHE RISK Stage 1: Current State Data and quality Exposure management Modeled risk Stage 2: Initial View Underwriter experience Expert opinion (e.g., modeling companies) Historical industry findings Stage 3: Additional Analyses Claims analysis Sensitivity tests Multiple models VIEW OF RISK Business Benefits Risk Selection and Pricing | Capacity Management | Post-Event Insight

17. 17Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. December 15, 2015 INVESTING: ENABLING BUSINESS GOALS GOAL: Access better business more efficiently DATA EXPOSURE CORRELATION VOLATILITY Identify superior risk profiles more rapidly Establish criteria to drive target portfolio performance Reduce potential for surprises

18. 18Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. December 15, 2015 Summary Owning your view of risk in a changing market Escalating Need View of Risk = Unique Business Effective Solution Design Is Key

Editor's Notes

Most companies address catastrophe risk in a piece-meal and reactive fashion Owning your View of Risk provides an informed basis driving stability and profitability Consider a more holistic approach Assess your unique business traits Establish a View of Risk that reflects those traits and key business/risk dynamics Clarify and prioritize business goals Align and focus on business processes that best support goals and leverage your View of Risk Also want to speak to what is changing: margins, distribution, regulation
Possible analogy? Know Your View = compass to tell you what direction you’re headed? Own Your Risk = Map of landscape around you at this time? -------------------- Falling out of love with definitions. Increased ask to do Here are some examples: Know Your View (understanding from your perspective) Own your risk (engrain in your business process) Going to be unique to each business. Be practical about putting it in place.
Possible analogy? Know Your View = compass to tell you what direction you’re headed? Own Your Risk = Map of landscape around you at this time? -------------------- Falling out of love with definitions. Increased ask to do Here are some examples: Know Your View (understanding from your perspective) Own your risk (engrain in your business process) Going to be unique to each business. Be practical about putting it in place.
Image source: https://www.google.com/search?q=Personal+Lines+Oakland+Fires+91&rlz=1C1GIGM_enUS527US527&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwip74WirLvJAhVSwGMKHbJzAVIQ_AUICigE&biw=1920&bih=995#q=Personal+Lines+Oakland+Fires+91&tbm=isch&tbs=isz:l&imgrc=hyyTFJACUBbVLM%3A
Image source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_Northridge_earthquake#/media/File:FEMA_-_1681_-_Photograph_by_FEMA_News_Photo_taken_on_01-17-1994_in_California.jpg
Image source: https://www.google.com/search?q=world+trade+center+2001&rlz=1C1GIGM_enUS527US527&espv=2&biw=1920&bih=995&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiBptHbrbvJAhVL3WMKHZ2eD1IQsAQIGw#imgrc=W8_6PMDq3Fq8QM%3A
Previous point was “not knowing your VoR can create bad surprises” This slide is “knowing your VoR can lead to superior performance.” Only way to stay in the upper right is to know your risk and manage it closely and consistently no matter the market cycles.
Split out into 4 slides so i builds (instead of animation) Change from "framework" - "elements?"
Split out into 4 slides so i builds (instead of animation) Change from "framework" - "elements?” EXAMPLES: Prospective behavior 0- Northridge tilt-up, Accumulations: Oakland Fire
Split out into 4 slides so i builds (instead of animation) Change from "framework" - "elements?” EXAMPLES Contingent risk – again Oakland code losses, Clash – WTC..
Split out into 4 slides so i builds (instead of animation) Change from "framework" - "elements?"
Most companies address catastrophe risk in a piece-meal and reactive fashion Owning your View of Risk provides an informed basis driving stability and profitability Consider a more holistic approach Assess your unique business traits Establish a View of Risk that reflects those traits and key business/risk dynamics Clarify and prioritize business goals Align and focus on business processes that best support goals and leverage your View of Risk Also want to speak to what is changing: margins, distribution, regulation

Owning Your View of Risk in a Changing Market

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Editor's Notes