Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, CBO’s Assistant Director for Macroeconomic Analysis, at the Economic Outlook Forum hosted by the NYU Stern Center for Global Economy and Business.

1. Congressional Budget Office
Presentation at the NYU Stern Economic Outlook Forum
New York City, New York
Wendy Edelberg
Assistant Director, Macroeconomic Analysis
CBO’s Economic Projections
September 8, 2015

2. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 1

3. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 2
Growth of Real GDP

4. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 3
Contributions to the Growth of Real GDP

5. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 4
Real Total Compensation of Employees

6. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 5
Business Investment

7. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 6
Household Formation

8. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 7
Growth of Trade

9. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 8

10. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 9
Rates of Short- and Long-Term Unemployment

11. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 10
Underuse of Labor

12. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 11
Employment Shortfall
The employment shortfall is the number of people who would be employed if the unemployment rate equaled its rate in
December 2007 (the light blue bars) and if the labor force participation rate equaled its potential rate (the dark blue bars).

13. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 12
The Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment

14. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 13
Labor Force Participation Rates

15. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 14
Hourly Labor Compensation

16. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 15

17. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 16
GDP and Potential GDP

18. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 17
Inflation

19. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 18
Forecasts of Interest Rates by CBO, the Federal Reserve,
and Federal Funds Futures

20. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 19
Interest Rates

21. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 20
Nominal and Real 10-Year Treasury Notes
*Calculated using the consumer price index for all urban consumers.

22. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 21
Spread Between 10-Year Treasury Notes and 3-Month Treasury Bills

23. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 22
Interest Rates on 10-Year Treasury Notes