PDF from my presentation at Mobile Monday in Amsterdam, March 30, 2009. Some predictions: the next 18 months • Twitter will reach 50 Million + Users • Facebook will become the default social utility - and the biggest global Content Broadcaster • Google will double it’s Advertising revenues • The RIAA and the IFPI will run out of cash • Telecoms will get flat-rate content licenses • Skype will re-emerge as content player PDF etc on my blog: http://tinyurl.com/dmaf2w

1. ★ twitter.com/gleonhard
★ www.mediafuturist.com
Mobile Content Futures
Gerd Leonhard @
Mobile Monday #10 in Amsterdam
March 30 2009

3. TOTAL Mobility
CONSTANT Peering and Connecting
DEEP & VAST Oceans of Content
and Information

4. •Straight to Digital Content
•Straight to Mobile
•Straight to Advertising 2.0

5. • Adding Location
Awareness is like
going from dial-up to
broadband
• Social and cultural
challenges are
enormous

6. (just)
Source: Sander Duivestein

7. I also noticed 3 recent changes ;)
• Domination is out - Collaboration is In
- Egosystem becomes Ecosystem
• Control is out - Openness is In
• Monolog is out - Conversation is In

8. It used to be: More Control = More $$

9. Now: Collaboration is REQUIRED
Osani Image provided by Susan Fassberg, Connectingdotz.com

10. especially for

11. Command & Control
becomes
Coordinate & Cultivate
*Thomas Malone “The Future of Work”
Governments Advertisers
& Brands
Search Telecoms
Engines & Device
Makers &
Content
CE Co’s
Social
Owners
Networks

12. Next
Generation
‘Advertising’
New
Content
Economy
New Data
Economy

13. Starting in 2009:
• Total convergence of Telecom & Web Layers
• Over-the top layers (devices, search, social
media, content etc) will come down,
Telecoms will move up!

14. Image via: kk.org
This year, Google will get really
involved in making ‘free’ Internet
content legitimate and monetizable

15. A decade of Content Control: time to learn!

16. Total Control =
Total $ Decline

17. Because this is where Content resides now...

18. Our Future is in the
Cloud and the
Crowd

19. The Future of Content: Attention-based Income Explodes
Copy Based Revenues Attention Based Revenues
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
0
Was Is Soon Near Future Mid-term Future

20. We
Brands are Now... Broadcasters
Narrowcasters
Conversation Leaders
Participants
Engagers

21. Marketing and
Advertising - as we knew it -
is just about dead
People subscribe to
People

22. Going forward, trust and Openness
will make more $$$ - and earn

23. And maintaining trust will be hard work

24. It used to be: Yell more - Sell more

25. Now: Talk more = Sell more

26. and this is accelerating very quickly

27. Wired.com
http://flickr.com/photos/foxwillow/

30. Centralized Models are becoming hard to maintain
Decentralized
Centralized>>>
Microsoft / Windows Google
MTV Youtube
Traditional Telco Skype
Cable TV Internet TV / IPTV
WSJ The Guardian (UK)

31. Digital Content Trends
Music Video Games Books Mags & Print
Percentage of Revenues from Digital Services
100%
75%
50%
25%
0%
2008 2009 2010 2012 2015

32. Digital Content Trends

33. Digital unit prices
should be 1/5 of
physical prices
because you don’t
just sell something
- you also buy
something

36. ‘Free’ gets my Attention...
Merit and Trust gets my Money.

37. Some predictions: the next 18 months
• Twitter will reach 50 Million + Users
• Facebook will become the default social utility -
and the biggest global Content Broadcaster
• Google will double it’s Advertising revenues
• The RIAA and the IFPI will run out of cash
• Telecoms will get flat-rate content licenses
• Skype will re-emerge as content player
• I will actually publish my next book, and finally
make Honor’s Circle at Lufthansa Miles & More!

38. Participate or be participated!

40. Thanks for listening!
Please talk back
★ email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com
★ twitter.com/gleonhard
★ facebook: gleonhard
★ more presentations at
www.mediafuturist.com