9. Exponen'al Change
Ray Kurzweil
”Technical progress is currently doubling every decade. The
technological progress in the 21st century will be equivalent to
what would require (in the linear view) on the order of 200
centuries. In contrast, the 20th century saw only about 25
percent of progress (at today’s rate of progress) since we have
been speeding up to current rates. So, the 21st century will see
almost a thousand times greater technological change than its
predecessor.”
18. Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U
A G R I C U LT U R A L R E V O L U T I O N
19. Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U
A G R I C U LT U R A L R E V O L U T I O N
20. Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U
A G R I C U LT U R A L R E V O L U T I O N I N D U S T R I A L R E V O L U T I O N
21. Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U
A G R I C U LT U R A L R E V O L U T I O N I N D U S T R I A L R E V O L U T I O N
22. Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U
A G R I C U LT U R A L R E V O L U T I O N I N D U S T R I A L R E V O L U T I O N
8 , 0 0 0 Y E A R S
23. Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U
I N D U S T R I A L R E V O L U T I O N
8 , 0 0 0 Y E A R S
24. Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U
I N D U S T R I A L R E V O L U T I O N
8 , 0 0 0 Y E A R S
25. Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U
I N D U S T R I A L R E V O L U T I O N
26. Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U
I N D U S T R I A L R E V O L U T I O N L I G H T B U L B
27. Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U
I N D U S T R I A L R E V O L U T I O N L I G H T B U L B
28. Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U
I N D U S T R I A L R E V O L U T I O N L I G H T B U L B
1 2 0 Y E A R S
29. L I G H T B U L B
Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U
30. L I G H T B U L B
Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U
31. L I G H T B U L B M O O N L A N D I N G
Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U
32. L I G H T B U L B M O O N L A N D I N G
9 0 Y E A R S
Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U
33. L I G H T B U L B M O O N L A N D I N G
9 0 Y E A R S
Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U
34. L I G H T B U L B M O O N L A N D I N G
W O R L D W I D E W E B
9 0 Y E A R S
Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U
35. L I G H T B U L B M O O N L A N D I N G
W O R L D W I D E W E B
2 2 Y E A R S9 0 Y E A R S
Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U
36. L I G H T B U L B M O O N L A N D I N G
W O R L D W I D E W E B
2 2 Y E A R S9 0 Y E A R S
Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U
37. L I G H T B U L B M O O N L A N D I N G
W O R L D W I D E W E B
2 2 Y E A R S9 0 Y E A R S
H U M A N G E N O M E
S E Q U E N C E D
Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U
38. L I G H T B U L B M O O N L A N D I N G
W O R L D W I D E W E B
2 2 Y E A R S9 0 Y E A R S
H U M A N G E N O M E
S E Q U E N C E D
9 Y E A R S
Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U
39. The World We Knew
The ShiC
The World Ahead
Exponen'al Government
Where to Start
53. • States on track to meet revenue projections: 41*
• State debt levels decline for the first time in 28 years **
• Ending balances for cities nearing pre-recession highs, but still lower than
2006 levels
• State pension shortfalls approaching $1 Trillion - gap between promised
and available rising by 6% ***
* NASBO ** Moody’s *** Pew
Scarce Public Resources
55. Exponen'al Bow Wave of 1% Raise
Base: $50,000
Health Insurance: $15,000/year
Source: Portland State University
Hatfield School
1% Raise: $500
Health Insurance: $750 (+5%)
PERS, PTO, FICA, UI, Payroll Taxes: $220 (45%)
“Felt Raise”
to Employee
Cost to
Public Employer
Cost to
Taxpayer
Before Tax
56. Exponen'al Bow Wave of 1% Raise
Base: $50,000
Health Insurance: $15,000/year
Source: Portland State University
Hatfield School
1% Raise: $500
Health Insurance: $750 (+5%)
PERS, PTO, FICA, UI, Payroll Taxes: $220 (45%)
“Felt Raise”
to Employee
Cost to
Public Employer
Cost to
Taxpayer
Before Tax
$400
57. Exponen'al Bow Wave of 1% Raise
Base: $50,000
Health Insurance: $15,000/year
Source: Portland State University
Hatfield School
1% Raise: $500
Health Insurance: $750 (+5%)
PERS, PTO, FICA, UI, Payroll Taxes: $220 (45%)
“Felt Raise”
to Employee
Cost to
Public Employer
Cost to
Taxpayer
Before Tax
$400 $1420 $1800
130. Where to Start With
1. Start: The Covey Admonition
2. Take a Principled Approach
3. Non Linear Path: The Grove Imperative
4. Go Where the People Are
5. Launch and Learn
6. Educate Yourself & Your Employees
7. Experiment Like You Invest
8. Start a Conversation With Your Network
9. Embrace Constraints
10.Don’t Be Afraid to do Big Things
131. Paul W. Taylor, Chief Content Officer
ptaylor@erepublic.com
@pwtaylor
Dustin Haisler, Chief Innovation Officer
dhaisler@erepublic.com
@dustinhaisler