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INFLATION PREDICTIONS BASED ON GAME
THEORY MODEL
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Author.......................................................................................................................................................................2
Month of Publication..................................................................................................................................................2
Objectives and Scope..................................................................................................................................................2
Objectives...............................................................................................................................................................2
Non-Objectives .......................................................................................................................................................2
Economic Fundamentals.............................................................................................................................................2
Model Principles.........................................................................................................................................................3
Model Assumptions for Next 10 Years..........................................................................................................................4
Model Tuningfor United States...................................................................................................................................7
Variable Names for Tuning Data...............................................................................................................................7
Tuning Data Source and Data...................................................................................................................................7
Model TuningAssumptions......................................................................................................................................7
Model Tuning Mathematics.........................................................................................................................................8
Model Constants.....................................................................................................................................................8
Variables.................................................................................................................................................................8
Model TuningVariables...........................................................................................................................................8
Model Tuning Equations FromAccompanying Excel Sheet.........................................................................................9
TuningProcess........................................................................................................................................................9
Model Tuning Results..............................................................................................................................................9
Using Model for Predictions........................................................................................................................................9
Case 1: Fixed Consumption......................................................................................................................................9
Constants for this Case ......................................................................................................................................10
Equations for this Case ......................................................................................................................................10
Case 2: Austerity ...................................................................................................................................................10
Constants for this Case ......................................................................................................................................10
Equations for this Case ......................................................................................................................................10
Model Predictions ....................................................................................................................................................11
For Fixed Consumption..........................................................................................................................................11
For Austerity.........................................................................................................................................................11
The Middle Path....................................................................................................................................................12
Appendix..................................................................................................................................................................12
Attached excel Sheet.............................................................................................................................................12
Excel Calculation Table for Fixed Consumption........................................................................................................12
TuningParameters............................................................................................................................................12
Numerical Results..............................................................................................................................................13
Excel Calculation Table for Austerity Case...............................................................................................................13
TuningParameters............................................................................................................................................13
Numerical Results..............................................................................................................................................13
AUTHOR
 Alias:Leo1992
 Email:leoleo1992@protonmail.com
MONTH OF PUBLICATION
Decemberof 2021
OBJECTIVES AND SCOPE
OBJECTIVES
1. Create an approximate mathematical macroeconomicmodel fordevelopedeconomieslike UnitedStatesbased
bothon EconomicFundamentals, andGame Theory.
2. Simulate thisMathematical Model inExcel topredictmajoroutcomespossiblefordevelopedeconomieslike
UnitedStates.
NON-OBJECTIVES
1. The model isfor whole economy.There isnoattempttomodel individual sectorsorcompanies.
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS
Thissectionreiteratessome fundamental rulesof economythatare usedto buildthe model
1. Moneycan onlybe createdbydoingwork.Thiswork can create goodsor servicesthatare valuable,andmoney
representsthisvalue.
a. Governmentandfed can onlyprintthe currency,buttheycannot printreal moneythatis backedby
goodsand services.
b. Printingcurrencydoesnotbyitself create more goodsandservicesforpeople toconsume.
c. Actual productivityisthe creationof money(value) andnotthe printingof currency.
d. Alsoprintingcurrencyisveryeasytodaybecause governmentsdon’treallyhavetothe printcurrency
notes,theyjustpressa buttonto generate numbersinadatabase andcreateddata filesforTreasuries.
2. Central Bankis notall powerful andthe Governmentisnotall powerful aswell.
a. Both Central Banksandgovernmentruntreasurydepartmentscannotcreate real money.
b. Whena governmentissuestreasuries,itcreateddebtthatissupposedtobe paidback bythe hard work
of all itstaxpayers.
c. Governmenthaspowertocollectmoneyastaxesand redistribute itunequallythroughitsown
spending.
d. Currencyspentbya governmentcanbe currencyearnedbyothernon-governmententities.
3. Central Banksand Governmentshave repeatedlybeenproven wrongontheireconomicpredictions
a. Despite all theirexpertise,boththeseentitieshave notbeenable topredictthe type,nature andscale
of majoreconomiccrisis,time andagain.
b. As theyhave beencaughtunaware,theyhave respondedbyprintingcurrencytomitigate the crisis.
c. These entitieshave notbeenable togetthe economytoa state where theycanhandle the nextcrisis
withoutprintingmore currencyagain.
4. Financial Investmentsbringprosperityonlywhenthe activityinvestedinisproductive andcreatesreal value.
a. Investmentsrequire someonetotake money,use ittobuy resourcesandlaborto create something
valuable tosell itformore money.
5. Bondsand stocksare productive investmentswhen
a. Theyare usedto raise moneytofundproductive activitiesthatcreate more value thatwhatwasfunded.
6. If the moneyraisedfromBondsandStocksis usedto fundactivitiesthatisnotcreatingmore value,these
investmentsbecome counterproductive andlose real money.
7. Real estate isa productive investmentwhen
a. A specificareadevelopsbecausenew businessesenablepeople tobe more productive.Thisareathen
becomesmore desirabledue tobetteropportunitiescausingpeople towanttomove there.
b. A house mayalsoappreciate byvalue basedonSupplyand Demandif the numberof housesinan area
are limitedandthe overall productivityof the areagoesup(i.e.the productof numberof people inthe
area and the average productivityperpersoninthe area).
c. Buildinghousesisaproductive activityashousesprovide shelter.Similarlyremodelinghousesis
productive againif itimprovesthe qualityof shelter.
8. If the above doesnothold,a house isnormallynotaninvestmentbecausehousesbythemselvesare not
productive.Housesdon’tgrowbythemselvesand dorequire maintenance.
a. House pricescan still inflate incurrencydue tocurrencyprintinglike everyotherassetandcommodity
and so housescanbe a hedge againstinflation.
9. Printingcurrenciesoftencausesinflation
a. Whena governmentprintscurrencythatisnot backedby real goodsand services,the amountof
currencythat chasesthese goodsandservicescanincrease while the latterremainsthe same.Thiscan
cause inflation.
b. As the governmentcontrolsdistributionsof thiscurrency,theycandirectit to targetspecificsectorsso
that the goodsand servicesfromthese sectorsinflate more thanothers.
10. GovernmentsandCentral Bankscan create currencyintwo forms
a. Governmentscancreate treasuriesthatdirectlyincreasethe debtandbringsmore currencyinto
circulation.
b. Central Bankscan buy treasuries,Mortgage-BackedSecurities,Bonds,Stocksandanyotherassetsby
printingreservesoutof thinair.Thisresultsinmore liquidityasnow financial entitiescanlendmore
currencyto buy assetsandotherbusinessescanborrow more currencyat artificiallylowinterestrates.
MODEL PRINCIPLES
Thissectionlaysouta setof principlesonwhichthe model isbased.Some of these principlesare basedonandcurrent
and historical trends.Othersassume that all entitieswillcontinuetoworkintheirownbestinterestlike isassumedin
othermodelsbasedonGame Theory.
1. In currentFinancial System,there shouldalwaysbe sufficientcollateral informof assetstomathematically
justifythe debtinthe balance sheetsof entitiesatmacroeconomiclevel.
a. Balance sheetsare accountedforin currenciesandnotin real money.
b. CurrencyinflationthatraisesAssetvaluesandnotthe Debtcan helpbalance the Balance Sheetsof
otherwise insolventcompanies
2. If debtin balance sheetof large financial entitiesishigh,the Governmentwill ensure thatBigInvestorsdon’t
lose moneyirrespectiveof the state of economytoprotectassetcollateral
a. These investmentsinclude stock,bond,treasuries,andreal estate.
b. Big investorsare smart,andhence lookat the real moneyearnedoveractual currencyinflationto
determine if theyare makingmoneyorlosingit.The governmentknowsthis.
c. Thisis because,if biginvestorswalkawayfromthese investments,the pricesof these investmentswill
collapse.However,inmanycases,these veryinvestmentsshow upasassetsinbalance sheetsof large
financial entitiesandare usedas collateral.So,adrop inpricesof these assetswouldmake these large
financial entitiesinsolvent.
3. To ensure biginvestorsdon’tlose moneyinanenvironmentwhereeconomyisnotdoingwell,Governmentwill
have to playa Zero-Sumgame of transferringsome wealthtobiginvestors
a. The simplestmethodof doingthisisusingCentral BankstobuyAssets normallyheldbybiginvestorslike
TreasuriesandMortgage-BackedSecuritiestopumpupthe price of these Assets.
b. Thisalsoartificiallyreducesinterestrates(yields) thatresultsinmore liquiditythatcango intobuying
more assetslike Commercial andResidential Real estate andStockstherebyraisingthe pricesof these
assetsas well toagaincompensate the biginvestors.
4. All governmentsandcentral banksmeasure GDPintheirowncurrencyunitandnot as a measure of real
productivityandthismay not alwaysbe accurate.For Example:
a. Suppose anauto companymanufacturesandsells1,000,000 unitsof a specificcarmodel for$40,000 in
one year,and then,nextyearitmanufacturesandsellsonly900,000 unitsof identical carsat $50,000.
So total salesinfirstyearis $40 Billionandinthe secondyearis $45 Billion.
b. Real productivityof thiscar companymaybe measuredincar unitsas theywere nearlyidentical and
hence decreasedby10%.
c. Accordingto the governmentstatistics,there wouldonlybe a4% netinflationcorrectiontoGDPand
GDP contributionof car companywouldgrow by 12.5% - 4% = 8.5%.
d. Stock analystsmaypredictthatthe car company’srevenuesgrew by12.5% and hence the stock price
can go up by “50%” insecondyearafteraccounting for future growthpossibilities.
e. Similarly,whenyougetabasic Haircut for$15 inone year andget the same haircut nextyearfor$25,
GDP wouldgrowsignificantlyevenwhenthere wasnogrowthinactual productivity(asitwasan
equivalenthaircut!).
MODEL ASSUMPTIONS FOR NEXT 10 YEARS
Thismodel onlyattemptstopredictdatafor next10 yearsand assumesthatthe followingwill holdvalidforthese 10
years.
1. Interestrateswouldneverrise above real inflationrate ashasbeenthe trendfor last10+ years.
a. HighInterestRates=> HighCost of ServicingDebt=> Bankruptcies=> AssetPrice crash=> Not enough
Collateral inBalance Sheet=>Financial MarketCrash=> Big InvestorsLose Moneythatis notallowedas
statedabove.
b. To avoidHyperinflation throughJawboning,the central bankswouldkeeppretendingthattheywould
beginraisingratesinfuture butwouldyieldonfirstmarkettantrumfromanyuncertainty.
2. These artificiallyloweredinterestrateswouldresultinthe assetpricestogetdistorted
a. To maintainlowinterestrates,Central bankswill have tobuyTreasuriesandMortgage-backed
securitiesandattimesevencorporate andmunicipal bonds.
b. The abilitytotake a large amountof debtat negative real interestrate will resultinissuingof bonds and
treasuriestocreate significantliquidity.
c. In an environmentwhere Productivityisnotincreasing,mostof thisliquiditywill chase bothphysical
and financial assetstherebyresultinginassetprice inflation.
3. DistortedAssetPriceswill hurtProductivity
a. Higherhouse pricesandhigherRentsthatwill resultinincrease inwagesthatwouldresultinhighercost
of Production.
b. Thisartificiallyhighercostof Productionwouldresultinlackof competitivenessforlow margin
businessesthatwouldhave toclose.
c. As these once profitablebusinesseswillclose,jobopportunitiesinproductivesectorswillreduce and
thiswill hurtnetproductivity.
d. There may alsobe significantdemotivationashigherpercentage of populationrealizesthattheir
significanthardworkisno longersufficienttosustainadecentlifestyle.
4. Consumptionof goodsandserviceswillremainthe same inreal terms
a. Developedeconomieswillpreventconsumptionof actual goodsandServicesfromfallingforboth
Economicand Political reasons.
i. Economicreason:Drop inConsumption=>Drop in GDP => Drop inProfitability=>Big Investors
Lose Money thatis not allowedasstatedabove.
ii. Political reason:Topreventlivingstandardsof General Populationfromdegradingrapidlyas
that can cause political unrest.
b. As productivityisnotincreasingandinflationcanrun high,itwouldbe hardto evenmaintainnet
consumptioninreal terms.However,thismodel assumesthatthe lossinconsumptionbygeneral
populationwillbe offsetbyextravagance frombiginvestorswhoexperience wealtheffectthrough
distortedAssetPricesandhence the netreal consumptionwouldremainsteady.
5. Real Inflationwillrise significantlyindevelopedeconomies
a. As productivitywill getreduced,tomaintainconsumption,developedeconomieswill resorttoissuing
treasurestopay for expenses.
b. As thislargeramountof currency unitschase a smallernumberof goodsandservices,the pricesof
these goodsandserviceswill rise significantly.
6. GovernmentsandCentral Banksof developedeconomieswill be forcedtoplayaZero-Sumgame and must
compensate biginvestorsforall the currencyprinting
a. All biginvestorsholdingBonds,StocksandReal Estate will demandapositivereal returnfromtheir
investments.
b. For thisan ever-increasingshare of printedcurrencymustbe divertedtowardsinflatingassetsheldby
biginvestors.Thisamountmustbe highenoughtoinflate these assetshigherthanthe inflationof
currency.
7. The model assumesthatall thisinflationcompensationtoBigInvestorswouldbe providedthroughcentral
banksbuyingassets.
a. The model alsoassumesthattodaythisis the onlymoneythatis goingintoinflatingassetvalues.
8. The model assumesthatbiginvestorsare smartenoughto demandinflationcompensationintermsof cash
inflowstotheirinvestmentsasagainstassetinflationincurrency.
a. Cash inflowsandprice doesnothave adirectcorrelation,andina bubble phase,assetvaluationscan
inflate five timesthe amountof the CashInflow.Fore.g.If a companyhas a total 100 sharesand Last
tradedshare value was$10 givingittotal Market Cap of $1000. Now if an investorbuys20 sharesof this
companyat $11, the total cash inflow is20 x ($11 - $10) = $20. However,these orderspushthe total
marketcapitalizationof thisshare to$11 x 100 = $1100 that ishigherthanpreviousvalue by$100.
Hence inthisexample a$20 cash inflow hasresultedin$100 increase intotal valuation,thatis5X of the
cash inflow.
9. The model assumesthatdecrease in productivityindevelopedeconomiesisafunctionof the following:
a. Distortionof assetprices:Higherassetpricesleadtohighercostof labor that will make businessesnon
profitable resultinginoutsourcingof jobstodevelopingeconomies.Thiswould hurtproductivityof
developedeconomies.Thismodelassumesthatthe decrease inproductivityinthisspecificenvironment
will be directlyproportional toDistortionof assetpricesintermsof real money.
b. Decrease incapital that isusedforoperating expensesinproductive businesses:Asprofitsfromcore
businessesandlaborreduce,more capital will be puttowardsspeculatingininflatedfinancialassets
(e.g.BuyingstocksusingmarginthroughRobinhood,buyingandflippinghousesetc.) causinglesser
capital for use as operatingexpensesinproductivebusinesses.Asthisishardto calculate byitself,this
model will assume thatthisiscapturedinproductivitychange w.r.t.distortioninAssetprices.
c. Futilityof labor:Asqualityof life between beingemployedandunemployedgetsnarrower,manyfolks
may tendto optfor latter.Asthisis hard tocalculate by itself,thismodel will assumethatthisis
capturedinproductivitychange w.r.t.distortioninAssetprices.
10. The model alsoassumesthatCentral Banksof developedeconomieswill neverbe able toreduce theirbalance
sheetsizes
a. Most corporatesprefertouse cash forshare buybacksinsteadof keepingitasbufferforrainydays.Only
feware reinvestingthiscashtogrow theircore business.
b. There will be some orotherform of recurringfinancial stressinthe overleveragedfinancialsystemthat
lackssavingsas buffers.So,toprotectthe systemfromimplodingdue tolackof collateral,central banks
and governmentswill keepresortingback tomoneyprintingtosave majorentitiesandcutlossesof big
investors.
c. Central bankshave beenrepeatedlywrongonwhentheywouldreduce balance sheetsandstart
increasinginterestrates.Thiswouldnotchange andwhile central bankswillkeepplanningthese actions
for nearfuture,theywouldneverbe able toincrease interestratesabove real rate of inflation.
11. Populationanditsdemographicswill notchange significantlytocause anyeffectonthismodel.
12. There will be nomajorinnovation/ discoverythatcansignificantlychange humanproductivity.Examplesof
such majorinnovationsanddiscoveriesfromhistoryare Wheel,Fire,Agriculture,Metals,Steam/ICEngines,
Electricity,Crude Oil,Polymers,Petrochemicals,NuclearPower,GreenRevolution,Electronics,
Computers/Smartphones,Internetetc.
13. Major Global Currencieswill inflateinternationallyinasynchronized/linkedmanner
a. While manydevelopedeconomieswill become netimportersdue toreducedproductivity,still their
combinedmilitarymightwillpreventtheircurrenciesfromcollapsingastheywill still control exportof
Energy(Crude Oil,LNG,NuclearFuel) andwill alsobe able tomaintaincontrol oncore technologies.
b. Countriesthatare net exporterof goodscanstill claimsupplychainshortagesandhigherinputcosts
and use themto raise prices.Theircurrencieswill notappreciate astheyneedtoconsume energyand
technologyatinflatedcost.
c. As productionandmanufacturingindevelopedeconomieswill remaininfeasibledue todistortedasset
prices,theywill have toacceptthisprice rise fromnetexportercountries.
MODEL TUNING FOR UNITED STATES
VARIABLE NAMES FOR TUNING DATA
Name Description
TW Total HouseholdWealthassummationof all Assetsminusall Liabilities.Here all Assetsinclude
financial assetslikeCommercial andResidential Real estate,Stocks,Commodities,Treasuries,MBS
and variousbonds.
GDP Gross DomesticProductof a Quarter,also the total Consumptionof GoodsandServices
TD Total Federal GovernmentDebt,alsothe Total OutstandingTreasury+CashValuation
TGA Cash heldbyFederal Government
BS Total Balance Sheetof Central Bank
TUNING DATA SOURCE AND DATA
All figuresbeloware inBillionsof Dollars.
Year Quarter Quarterly GDP TD TGA BS TW
Source -> GDP Source TD Source TGA Source BS Source TW Source
2018 Q3 $5,188 $21,516 $368 $4,175 $108,000
2018 Q4 $5,283 $21,974 $380 $4,058 $104,330
2019 Q1 $5,117 $22,028 $310 $3,969 $110,113
2019 Q2 $5,345 $22,023 $245 $3,813 $112,461
2019 Q3 $5,398 $22,719 $335 $3,946 $113,171
2019 Q4 $5,513 $23,201 $383 $4,174 $116,814
2020 Q1 $5,224 $23,687 $429 $5,812 $110,586
2020 Q2 $4,877 $26,477 $1,658 $7,009 $118,585
2020 Q3 $5,302 $26,945 $1,697 $7,075 $122,911
2020 Q4 $5,490 $27,748 $1,669 $7,335 $130,916
2021 Q1 $5,368 $28,133 $1,010 $7,709 $136,206
2021 Q2 $5,712 $28,529 $753 $8,098 $142,347
2021 Q3 $5,819 $28,429 $136 $8,464 $144,709
MODEL TUNING ASSUMPTIONS
1. We usedthe above available dataforQ3 2018 to Q3 2021 forthistuning.
2. The total Productivityof US Peakedin2019 Q2 before COVID19 and TaperTantrum that causedUS Fed to start
increasingitsbalance sheetagain.
3. US Productivityfell duringLockdownsdue toCOVID19 and Unemploymentsoared,andlaborparticipationrates
decreased.
4. So,this model assumesthatthe Actual Total HouseholdWealthof UShas notincreasedfrom2019 Q2 to 2021
Q3 andthe increase inTotal HouseholdWealthof USintermsof USD is a resultof Assetinflation.
5. Furtherthismodel alsoassumesthatTotal Inflationof USDcurrency matchesAssetInflationandhence the
actual inflationcompensatedvalueforfinancial datalike GDPcanbe obtainedbyaccountingforassetinflation.
6. For more assumptions,see Model Constantsbelow.
MODEL TUNING MATHEMATICS
MODEL CONSTANTS
Name Value Details
C_TP 50% Thisis the fractionof PrintedCurrencythatis usedforConsumption.Thismodelassumes
that exactly50% of all PrintedCurrencyisusedforConsumptioninthe same Quarter.
C_MTP 20% As Assumedbythe model,thisisthe fractionof 2019 Q2 Productivitythatwill notbe
affectedbyAssetInflation.
VARIABLES
Name Description
TW Total HouseholdWealthassummationof all Assetsminusall Liabilities.Here all Assetsinclude
financial assetslikeCommercial andResidential Real estate,Stocks,Commodities,Treasuries,
MBS andvariousbonds.
GDP Gross DomesticProductof a Quarter alsothe total Consumptionof GoodsandServices
TD Total Federal GovernmentDebtalsothe Total OutstandingTreasuryValuation
TGA Cash heldbyFederal Government
BS Total Balance Sheetof Central Bank
TP Total productionof Goodsand ServicesinaQuarter
∆<VariableName> Whena variable isprecededby ∆,itrepresentschange inRespective Variableoverlastquarter.
e.g.∆TW, ∆BS
TDS Total DebtSpendinginaQuarter,Measuredas ∆TD - ∆TGA.
TIC Total Increase inCurrencyUnits,measuredasTDS + ∆BS
AINR Actual AssetInflationrate asmeasuredinTW/(TWon 2019 Q2) - 1.
<VariableName>’ Whena variable issucceededby ‘,itrepresentsitrepresentsActual variablevalue correctedfor
inflationbyusingAINRasbase.e.g.GDP’,TD’, TGA’,BS’,TW’, TP’
M_TP’ ModeledTP’byTuningrespective TuningVariablesasgivenbelow
TD/GDP Federal GovernmentDebttoGDP ratio
MODEL TUNING VARIABLES
The followingVariableswere derivedfromModel tuningforuse inFuture Predictions
Name Details
TV_TW The ratio for cumulative increase inTotal HouseholdWealthtocumulativeincreaseinCurrency
Unitsover lastcouple of years.Thisratiois proportional toratioof AssetInflationtocashinflows
towardsthese assetsdue toincrease inCurrencyunits.We calculate the average forlast4 quarters
and use itfor predictions.
TV_BS The ratio for cumulative increase Central Bankbalance sheettocumulativeGovernmentDept
Spendingoverlastcouple of years.The ratiorepresentsthe InflationCompensationgiven tobig
investors.We calculate the average forlast4 quartersand use itfor predictions.
TV_TP The ratio of AINRby whichthe Inflationcompensatedproductivity(TP’) isreduceddue to
distortionof AssetPrices.
MODEL TUNING EQUATIONS FROM ACCOMPANYING EXCEL SHEET
1. TDS = ∆TD - ∆TGA
2. TIC = TDS + ∆BS
3. TP = GDP - (TIC* C_TP)
4. AINR= TW / TW(2019 Q2) – 1
5. TV_TW = ∑∆TW / ∑TIC
6. TV_BS = ∑∆BS / ∑TDS
7. GDP’ = GDP / (1 + AINR)
8. TD’ = TD / (1 + AINR)
9. TGA’ = TGA / (1 + AINR)
10. BS’ = BS / (1 + AINR)
11. TW’ = TW / (1 + AINR)
12. TP’ = TP / (1 + AINR)
13. M_TP’ = TP’(2019 Q2) * (C_MTP + (1 - C_MPT) / (1 + AINR(Last Quarter) * TV_TP))
TUNING PROCESS
1. TV_TP ischangedby Goal SeekingtosetM_TP’ value same asTP’ for 2021 Q3.
2. For TV_TW and TV_BS,averagesare takenforlast 4 years.
MODEL TUNING RESULTS
1. For last9 quartersfrom2019 Q2 to 2021 Q3, whenassumingthatUS as a whole didnotreallygetwealthierin
termsof actual goodsand servicesdue toCovid19 pandemic,the combinednetassetinflationrate comesto
~28.7%. So, the average annual compoundednetassetinflationforlast9 quartershas been 11.8% per year.
2. US QuarterlyGDP (aka Consumption) inactual termspeakedin2019 Q2 and is still 15.4% belowthat value asof
2021 Q3.
3. US QuarterlyProductivityinactual termspeakedin2019 Q2 and isstill 22.5% belowthat value asof 2021 Q3.
4. TV_BS ~= 74%.
5. TV_TW ~= 268%
6. TV_TP ~= 147%
USING MODEL FOR PREDICTIONS
It’shard to accuratelypredicthowmuch stimulusandspendingwillhappenovernextone decade.So,tosimpli fythis,
we will considertwobordercasesthatwill helpusdefinethe range foractual outcome that isexpectedtobe within
these bordercases.
CASE 1: FIXED CONSUMPTION
1. For thiscase,we will assume governmentwill spendenoughmoneytoensure thatnet consumptioninreal term
remainsconstantas productivitydrops.
2. While thismeansthatGDP inreal termswill holdsteady,livingstandardsforsome insocietymaystill gohigher
at the expenseof livingstandardsforothersgoinglower.
3. Thiscase isrepresentedinaccompanyingExcel WorkbookinWorksheetwithname “FixedConsumption”.
CONSTANTS FOR THIS CASE
1. GDP’ = 4,535 billionUSD
2. TV_TP = 137%
3. TV_TW = 271%
4. TV_BS = 74%
5. TGA = 136 billion(Made Constantforease)
6. ∆TGA = 0
EQUATIONS FOR THIS CASE
1. M_TP’ = TP’(2019 Q2) * (C_MTP + (1 - C_MPT) / (1 + AINR(Last Quarter) * TV_TP))
2. TP = M_TP’ * (1 + AINR(Last Quarter))
3. GDP = GDP’ * (1 + AINR(Last Quarter))
4. TIC = (GDP – TP) / C_TP
5. TDS = TIC / (1+ TV_TW)
6. ∆BS = TIC * TV_TW / (1+ TV_TW)
7. ∆TW = TV_TW * TIC
8. ∆TD = TDS (as∆TGA = 0)
9. AINR= TW / TW(2019 Q2) – 1
10. GDP’ = GDP / (1 + AINR)
11. TD’ = TD / (1 + AINR)
12. TGA’ = TGA / (1 + AINR)
13. BS’ = BS / (1 + AINR)
14. TW’ = TW / (1 + AINR)
CASE 2: AUSTERITY
1. For thiscase,we will assume thatgovernmentwill preferAusterityandwillletthe netconsumptiondecreasein
real term as productivitydropstoreduce the rate at whichdebtgrows.
2. It’sstill requiredthatgovernmentcanprojecta positive impressionof growthandforthis,sowe assume that
the governmentwill fix itsownmeasuredinflationataround5% and will control stimulusandspendingsuch
that the Nominal GDPcomesto 2% aftercompensatingforitsownInflationof 5%.
3. Thiscase isrepresentedinaccompanyingExcel WorkbookinWorksheetwithname “Austerity”.
CONSTANTS FOR THIS CASE
1. C_GMIN = 5% (Thisisthe governmentmeasuredAnnualinflationrate)
2. C_NGDP = 2% (Thisisthe governmentmeasuredAnnual GDPaftercompensatingforC_GMIN)
3. TV_TP = 90%
4. TV_TW = 271%
5. TV_BS = 74%
6. TGA = 136 Billion(Made Constantforease)
7. ∆TGA = 0
EQUATIONS FOR THIS CASE
1. ∆GDP = GDP(Previous Quarter) * (1 + (GMIN + C_NGDP))^(1/4) [Here 1/4 comes from annual to quarterly conversion]
2. M_TP’ = TP’(2019 Q2) * (C_MTP + (1 - C_MPT) / (1 + AINR(Last Quarter) * TV_TP))
3. TP = M_TP’ * (1 + AINR(Last Quarter))
4. TIC = (GDP – TP) / C_TP
5. TDS = TIC / (1+ TV_TW)
6. ∆BS = TIC * TV_TW / (1+ TV_TW)
7. ∆TW = TV_TW * TIC
8. ∆TD = TDS (as∆TGA = 0)
9. AINR= TW / TW(2019 Q2) – 1
10. GDP’ = GDP / (1 + AINR)
11. TD’ = TD / (1 + AINR)
12. TGA’ = TGA / (1 + AINR)
13. BS’ = BS / (1 + AINR)
14. TW’ = TW / (1 + AINR)
MODEL PREDICTIONS
FOR FIXED CONSUMPTION
1. If we go downthe pathof fixedconsumption,the model predictsthat:
a. The Actual AssetInflationRate will reachanannual value of 50% injust 4 yearsand so will resultin
Hyperinflationwithinadecade.
b. The actual productivityfordevelopingeconomieswill take asignificanthit.
c. Due to hyperinflation,all numbersmeasuredinUSDwill show exponentialgrowth
d. Real Debtto GDP whencorrectedfor AINRwill notjumpsignificantly.
2. The above showsthat while “FixedConsumption”preventsthe societyfromgettingpoorer,itsunsustainable
and we are veryclose tothe endof its run.
FOR AUSTERITY
1. If we practice austeritysuchthatstatedGDP grown remains2% in dollartermsandinflationisstatedas5%, we
see that the netconsumptionreducestonearlyhalf overthe nextdecade.
2. Decrease inconsumptionwouldmeanthatthe societywouldgetpoorer.
3. Evenin thiscase Actual AssetInflationRate indicatesAssetinflationof 5timesinnext10 yearsintermsof USD.
While thisisnothyperinflation,it’sstillsignificantlyhighinflation.
THE MIDDLE PATH
1. The above two casesare twoboundaryconditionsandthe actual path chosenmaylie betweenthese twocases.
2. Evenfor the middle path,the model predictsthatmajorworldcurrenciesare goingtolose significantvaluewith
respectto real goodsand servicesandsodiversifyingintootherAssetclassesmayhelp.
APPENDIX
ATTACHED EXCEL SHEET
INFLATION
PREDICTIONS BASED ON GAME THEORY MODEL.xlsx
EXCEL CALCULATION TABLE FOR FIXED CONSUMPTION
TUNING PARAMETERS
C_TP 50%
C_MTP 20%
TV_TP 147%
NUMERICAL RESULTS
Actual Equivalent of Q2 USD
Year Quarter Time GDP TD TGA BS TW TP ∆ TW TDS ∆ BS TIC TV_TW TV_BS AINR GDP' TD' TGA' BS' TW' TP' M_TP' TD/GDP
2018 Q3 2018 Q3 $ 5,188 $ 21,516 $ 368 $ 4,175 $ 108,000
2018 Q4 2018 Q4 $ 5,283 $ 21,974 $ 380 $ 4,058 $ 104,330 $ 5,118 $ (3,670) $ 446 $ (117) $ 329 5,28321,974 380 4,058 104,3305,118 104%
2019 Q1 2019 Q1 $ 5,117 $ 22,028 $ 310 $ 3,969 $ 110,113 $ 5,100 $ 5,782 $ 124 $ (89) $ 35 5,11722,028 310 3,969 110,1135,100 108%
2019 Q2 2019 Q2 $ 5,345 $ 22,023 $ 245 $ 3,813 $ 112,461 $ 5,393 $ 2,348 $ 60 $ (156) $ (96) 0%5,34522,023 245 3,813 112,4615,393 103%
2019 Q3 2019 Q3 $ 5,398 $ 22,719 $ 335 $ 3,946 $ 113,171 $ 5,028 $ 710 $ 606 $ 133 $ 739 95% 22% 1%5,36422,577 333 3,921 112,4614,997 5393 105%
2019 Q4 2019 Q4 $ 5,513 $ 23,201 $ 383 $ 4,174 $ 116,814 $ 5,182 $ 3,643 $ 434 $ 228 $ 662 311% 35% 4%5,30822,337 369 4,018 112,4614,989 5353 105%
2020 Q1 2020 Q1 $ 5,224 $ 23,687 $ 429 $ 5,812 $ 110,586 $ 4,185 $ (6,228) $ 439 $ 1,638 $ 2,077 -54% 135% -2%5,31324,089 436 5,911 112,4614,256 5160 113%
2020 Q2 2020 Q2 $ 4,877 $ 26,477 $ 1,658 $ 7,009 $ 118,585 $ 3,498 $ 7,999 $ 1,561 $ 1,197 $ 2,758 98% 105% 5%4,62525,1101,572 6,647 112,4613,317 5502 136%
2020 Q3 2020 Q3 $ 5,302 $ 26,945 $ 1,697 $ 7,075 $ 122,911 $ 5,054 $ 4,326 $ 429 $ 66 $ 495 155% 94% 9%4,85124,6551,553 6,474 112,4614,625 5072 127%
2020 Q4 2020 Q4 $ 5,490 $ 27,748 $ 1,669 $ 7,335 $ 130,916 $ 4,945 $ 8,006 $ 830 $ 260 $ 1,090 236% 82% 16%4,71623,8361,434 6,301 112,4614,248 4873 126%
2021 Q1 2021 Q1 $ 5,368 $ 28,133 $ 1,010 $ 7,709 $ 136,206 $ 4,659 $ 5,290 $ 1,044 $ 374 $ 1,418 257% 73% 21%4,43223,228 834 6,365 112,4613,847 4552 131%
2021 Q2 2021 Q2 $ 5,712 $ 28,529 $ 753 $ 8,098 $ 142,347 $ 5,191 $ 6,141 $ 654 $ 389 $ 1,043 291% 71% 27%4,51322,540 595 6,398 112,4614,101 4369 125%
2021 Q3 2021 Q3 $ 5,819 $ 28,429 $ 136 $ 8,464 $ 144,709 $ 5,378 $ 2,362 $ 516 $ 366 $ 882 289% 71% 29%4,52222,094 106 6,578 112,4614,1794,178 122%
$ 5,819 $ 28,429 $ 136 $ 8,464 $ 144,709 268% 74% 29%4,546 112,4614,179 4111 122%
2021 Q4 2021 Q4 $ 5,849 $ 29,071 $ 136 $ 8,942 $ 147,711 $ 5,290 $ 3,001 $ 642 $ 478 $ 1,120 268% 74% 31%4,54622,133 104 6,808 112,461 4111 124%
2022 Q1 2022 Q1 $ 5,971 $ 29,849 $ 136 $ 9,521 $ 151,349 $ 5,292 $ 3,638 $ 778 $ 579 $ 1,357 268% 74% 35%4,54622,180 101 7,074 112,461 4029 125%
2022 Q2 2022 Q2 $ 6,118 $ 30,790 $ 136 $ 10,221 $ 155,750 $ 5,297 $ 4,401 $ 941 $ 700 $ 1,642 268% 74% 38%4,54622,232 98 7,380 112,461 3936 126%
2022 Q3 2022 Q3 $ 6,296 $ 31,926 $ 136 $ 11,066 $ 161,059 $ 5,305 $ 5,310 $ 1,136 $ 845 $ 1,981 268% 74% 43%4,54622,292 95 7,727 112,461 3831 127%
2022 Q4 2022 Q4 $ 6,510 $ 33,292 $ 136 $ 12,083 $ 167,448 $ 5,319 $ 6,389 $ 1,366 $ 1,017 $ 2,383 268% 74% 49%4,54622,360 91 8,115 112,461 3714 128%
2023 Q1 2023 Q1 $ 6,768 $ 34,932 $ 136 $ 13,303 $ 175,115 $ 5,339 $ 7,667 $ 1,640 $ 1,220 $ 2,860 268% 74% 56%4,54622,434 87 8,543 112,461 3585 129%
2023 Q2 2023 Q2 $ 7,078 $ 36,894 $ 136 $ 14,762 $ 184,288 $ 5,368 $ 9,173 $ 1,962 $ 1,460 $ 3,422 268% 74% 64%4,54622,514 83 9,009 112,461 3447 130%
2023 Q3 2023 Q3 $ 7,449 $ 39,234 $ 136 $ 16,504 $ 195,230 $ 5,408 $ 10,942 $ 2,340 $ 1,741 $ 4,082 268% 74% 74%4,54622,601 78 9,507 112,461 3300 132%
2023 Q4 2023 Q4 $ 7,891 $ 42,017 $ 136 $ 18,575 $ 208,244 $ 5,464 $ 13,015 $ 2,783 $ 2,071 $ 4,855 268% 74% 85%4,54622,691 73 10,031112,461 3148 133%
2024 Q1 2024 Q1 $ 8,417 $ 45,319 $ 136 $ 21,031 $ 223,680 $ 5,539 $ 15,436 $ 3,301 $ 2,456 $ 5,758 268% 74% 99%4,54622,785 68 10,574112,461 2991 135%
2024 Q2 2024 Q2 $ 9,041 $ 49,224 $ 136 $ 23,937 $ 241,940 $ 5,636 $ 18,259 $ 3,905 $ 2,906 $ 6,811 268% 74% 115%4,54622,881 63 11,127112,461 2834 136%
2024 Q3 2024 Q3 $ 9,779 $ 53,832 $ 136 $ 27,366 $ 263,486 $ 5,761 $ 21,546 $ 4,608 $ 3,429 $ 8,037 268% 74% 134%4,54622,977 58 11,680112,461 2678 138%
2024 Q4 2024 Q4 $ 10,650 $ 59,258 $ 136 $ 31,403 $ 288,856 $ 5,919 $ 25,370 $ 5,426 $ 4,037 $ 9,463 268% 74% 157%4,54623,071 53 12,226112,461 2526 139%
2025 Q1 2025 Q1 $ 11,676 $ 65,635 $ 136 $ 36,148 $ 318,670 $ 6,115 $ 29,814 $ 6,377 $ 4,745 $ 11,121 268% 74% 183%4,54623,163 48 12,757112,461 2381 141%
2025 Q2 2025 Q2 $ 12,881 $ 73,116 $ 136 $ 41,714 $ 353,650 $ 6,357 $ 34,980 $ 7,481 $ 5,567 $ 13,048 268% 74% 214%4,54623,251 43 13,265112,461 2243 142%
2025 Q3 2025 Q3 $ 14,295 $ 81,881 $ 136 $ 48,237 $ 394,633 $ 6,651 $ 40,984 $ 8,765 $ 6,522 $ 15,287 268% 74% 251%4,54623,334 39 13,746112,461 2115 143%
2025 Q4 2025 Q4 $ 15,952 $ 92,140 $ 136 $ 55,869 $ 442,596 $ 7,006 $ 47,963 $ 10,258 $ 7,633 $ 17,891 268% 74% 294%4,54623,412 35 14,196112,461 1997 144%
2026 Q1 2026 Q1 $ 17,890 $ 104,133 $ 136 $ 64,794 $ 498,675 $ 7,431 $ 56,078 $ 11,994 $ 8,924 $ 20,918 268% 74% 343%4,54623,484 31 14,612112,461 1888 146%
2026 Q2 2026 Q2 $ 20,157 $ 118,146 $ 136 $ 75,220 $ 564,193 $ 7,937 $ 65,518 $ 14,013 $ 10,426 $ 24,439 268% 74% 402%4,54623,550 27 14,994112,461 1790 147%
2026 Q3 2026 Q3 $ 22,805 $ 134,508 $ 136 $ 87,394 $ 640,694 $ 8,537 $ 76,501 $ 16,362 $ 12,174 $ 28,536 268% 74% 470%4,54623,610 24 15,340112,461 1702 147%
2026 Q4 2026 Q4 $ 25,898 $ 153,603 $ 136 $ 101,603 $ 729,977 $ 9,246 $ 89,283 $ 19,095 $ 14,208 $ 33,304 268% 74% 549%4,54623,664 21 15,653112,461 1623 148%
2027 Q1 2027 Q1 $ 29,507 $ 175,881 $ 136 $ 118,179 $ 834,139 $ 10,079 $ 104,163 $ 22,278 $ 16,576 $ 38,854 268% 74% 642%4,54623,713 18 15,933112,461 1553 149%
2027 Q2 2027 Q2 $ 33,717 $ 201,864 $ 136 $ 137,512 $ 955,628 $ 11,059 $ 121,488 $ 25,983 $ 19,334 $ 45,317 268% 74% 750%4,54623,756 16 16,183112,461 1491 150%
2027 Q3 2027 Q3 $ 38,628 $ 232,163 $ 136 $ 160,057 $ 1,097,293 $ 12,206 $ 141,665 $ 30,299 $ 22,544 $ 52,843 268% 74% 876%4,54623,794 14 16,404112,461 1436 150%
2027 Q4 2027 Q4 $ 44,354 $ 267,488 $ 136 $ 186,341 $ 1,262,459 $ 13,549 $ 165,166 $ 35,325 $ 26,284 $ 61,609 268% 74% 1023%4,54623,828 12 16,599112,461 1389 151%
2028 Q1 2028 Q1 $ 51,030 $ 308,667 $ 136 $ 216,982 $ 1,454,999 $ 15,120 $ 192,541 $ 41,180 $ 30,641 $ 71,820 268% 74% 1194%4,54623,858 11 16,771112,461 1347 151%
2028 Q2 2028 Q2 $ 58,813 $ 356,668 $ 136 $ 252,698 $ 1,679,431 $ 16,955 $ 224,432 $ 48,000 $ 35,716 $ 83,716 268% 74% 1393%4,54623,884 9 16,922112,461 1310 152%
2028 Q3 2028 Q3 $ 67,885 $ 412,614 $ 136 $ 294,326 $ 1,941,017 $ 19,097 $ 261,586 $ 55,947 $ 41,628 $ 97,575 268% 74% 1626%4,54623,907 8 17,053112,461 1279 152%
2028 Q4 2028 Q4 $ 78,458 $ 477,820 $ 136 $ 342,844 $ 2,245,892 $ 21,597 $ 304,875 $ 65,205 $ 48,517 $ 113,723 268% 74% 1897%4,54623,926 7 17,168112,461 1251 152%
2029 Q1 2029 Q1 $ 90,782 $ 553,813 $ 136 $ 399,388 $ 2,601,207 $ 24,513 $ 355,314 $ 75,993 $ 56,544 $ 132,537 268% 74% 2213%4,54623,944 6 17,267112,461 1227 153%
2029 Q2 2029 Q2 $ 105,144 $ 642,375 $ 136 $ 465,285 $ 3,015,292 $ 27,914 $ 414,085 $ 88,563 $ 65,897 $ 154,460 268% 74% 2581%4,54623,959 5 17,354112,461 1207 153%
2029 Q3 2029 Q3 $ 121,882 $ 745,584 $ 136 $ 542,080 $ 3,497,859 $ 31,880 $ 482,567 $ 103,209 $ 76,795 $ 180,004 268% 74% 3010%4,54623,972 4 17,429112,461 1189 153%
2029 Q4 2029 Q4 $ 141,388 $ 865,860 $ 136 $ 631,574 $ 4,060,224 $ 36,503 $ 562,365 $ 120,276 $ 89,494 $ 209,770 268% 74% 3510%4,54623,983 4 17,493112,461 1174 153%
2030 Q1 2030 Q1 $ 164,119 $ 1,006,023 $ 136 $ 735,865 $ 4,715,574 $ 41,892 $ 655,350 $ 140,163 $ 104,292 $ 244,455 268% 74% 4093%4,54623,993 3 17,550112,461 1160 153%
2030 Q2 2030 Q2 $ 190,609 $ 1,169,360 $ 136 $ 857,400 $ 5,479,277 $ 48,173 $ 763,703 $ 163,337 $ 121,535 $ 284,872 268% 74% 4772%4,54624,001 3 17,598112,461 1149 153%
2030 Q3 2030 Q3 $ 221,479 $ 1,359,702 $ 136 $ 999,028 $ 6,369,242 $ 55,495 $ 889,965 $ 190,341 $ 141,628 $ 331,969 268% 74% 5564%4,54624,008 2 17,640112,461 1139 153%
2030 Q4 2030 Q4 $ 257,453 $ 1,581,511 $ 136 $ 1,164,070 $ 7,406,338 $ 64,027 $ 1,037,096 $ 221,809 $ 165,042 $ 386,851 268% 74% 6486%4,54624,014 2 17,676112,461 1131 154%
2031 Q1 2031 Q1 $ 299,373 $ 1,839,989 $ 136 $ 1,356,397 $ 8,614,885 $ 73,971 $ 1,208,547 $ 258,478 $ 192,327 $ 450,805 268% 74% 7560%4,54624,020 2 17,707112,461 1123 154%
2031 Q2 2031 Q2 $ 348,224 $ 2,141,197 $ 136 $ 1,580,518 $ 10,023,223 $ 85,560 $ 1,408,338 $ 301,208 $ 224,121 $ 525,330 268% 74% 8813%4,54624,024 2 17,733112,461 1117 154%
2031 Q3 2031 Q3 $ 405,151 $ 2,492,200 $ 136 $ 1,841,689 $ 11,664,377 $ 99,065 $ 1,641,154 $ 351,002 $ 261,171 $ 612,173 268% 74%10272%4,54624,028 1 17,756112,461 1112 154%
EXCEL CALCULATION TABLE FOR AUSTERITY CASE
TUNING PARAMETERS
C_TP 50%
C_MTP 20%
TV_TP 147%
C_GMIN 5%
C_NGDP 2%
NUMERICAL RESULTS
Year Quarter Time GDP TD TGA BS TW TP ∆ TW TDS ∆ BS TIC TV_TW TV_BS AINR GDP' TD' TGA' BS' TW' TP' M_TP' TD/GDP
2018Q3 2018 Q3 $ 5,188 $ 21,516 $ 368 $ 4,175 $ 108,000 104%
2018Q4 2018 Q4 $ 5,283 $ 21,974 $ 380 $ 4,058 $ 104,330 $ 5,118 $ (3,670)$ 446 $ (117)$ 329 5,28321,974 380 4,058 104,3305,118 104%
2019Q1 2019 Q1 $ 5,117 $ 22,028 $ 310 $ 3,969 $ 110,113 $ 5,100 $ 5,782$ 124 $ (89)$ 35 5,11722,028 310 3,969 110,1135,100 108%
2019Q2 2019 Q2 $ 5,345 $ 22,023 $ 245 $ 3,813 $ 112,461 $ 5,393 $ 2,348$ 6
0 $ (156)$ (96) 0%5,34522,023 245 3,813 112,4615,393 103%
2019Q3 2019 Q3 $ 5,398 $ 22,719 $ 335 $ 3,946 $ 113,171 $ 5,028 $ 710$ 606 $ 133 $ 739 96% 22% 1%5,36422,577 333 3,921 112,4614,997 5353 105%
2019Q4 2019 Q4 $ 5,513 $ 23,201 $ 383 $ 4,174 $ 116,814 $ 5,182 $ 3,643$ 434 $ 228 $ 662 311% 35% 4%5,30822,337 369 4,018 112,4614,989 5160 105%
2020Q1 2020 Q1 $ 5,224 $ 23,687 $ 429 $ 5,812 $ 110,586 $ 4,185 $ (6,228)$ 439 $ 1,638 $ 2,077 -54% 135% -2%5,31324,089 436 5,911 112,4614,256 5502 113%
2020Q2 2020 Q2 $ 4,877 $ 26,477 $ 1,658 $ 7,009 $ 118,585 $ 3,498 $ 7,999 $ 1,561 $ 1,197 $ 2,758 98% 105% 5%4,62525,1101,572 6,647 112,4613,317 5072 136%
2020Q3 2020 Q3 $ 5,302 $ 26,945 $ 1,697 $ 7,075 $ 122,911 $ 5,054 $ 4,326$ 429 $ 66 $ 495 155% 94% 9%4,85124,6551,553 6,474 112,4614,625 4873 127%
2020Q4 2020 Q4 $ 5,490 $ 27,748 $ 1,669 $ 7,335 $ 130,916 $ 4,945 $ 8,006$ 830 $ 260 $ 1,090 236% 82% 16%4,71623,8361,434 6,301 112,4614,248 4552 126%
2021Q1 2021 Q1 $ 5,368 $ 28,133 $ 1,010 $ 7,709 $ 136,206 $ 4,659 $ 5,290 $ 1,044 $ 374 $ 1,418 257% 73% 21%4,43223,228 834 6,365 112,4613,847 4369 131%
2021Q2 2021 Q2 $ 5,712 $ 28,529 $ 753 $ 8,098 $ 142,347 $ 5,191 $ 6,141$ 654 $ 389 $ 1,043 291% 71% 27%4,51322,540 595 6,398 112,4614,101 4178 125%
2021Q3 2021 Q3 $ 5,819 $ 28,429 $ 136 $ 8,464 $ 144,709 $ 5,378 $ 2,362$ 516 $ 366 $ 882 289% 71% 29%4,52222,094 106 6,578 112,461 4179 4111 122%
$ 5,819 $ 28,429 $ 136 $ 8,464 $ 144,709 268% 74% 29%4,546 112,461 4179 4111 122%
2021Q4 2021 Q4 $ 5,918 $ 29,595 $ 136 $ 9,332 $ 150,163 $ 4,901 $ 5,453 $ 1,166 $ 868 $ 2,034 268% 74% 34%4,43222,165 102 6,989 112,461 3809 125%
2022Q1 2022 Q1 $ 6,019 $ 30,871 $ 136 $ 10,281 $ 156,129 $ 4,906 $ 5,967 $ 1,276 $ 950 $ 2,226 268% 74% 39%4,33622,237 98 7,406 112,461 3675 128%
2022Q2 2022 Q2 $ 6,122 $ 32,253 $ 136 $ 11,310 $ 162,592 $ 4,917 $ 6,462 $ 1,382 $ 1,028 $ 2,411 268% 74% 45%4,23422,309 94 7,823 112,461 3541 132%
2022Q3 2022 Q3 $ 6,226 $ 33,737 $ 136 $ 12,414 $ 169,530 $ 4,932 $ 6,939 $ 1,484 $ 1,104 $ 2,588 268% 74% 51%4,13022,380 90 8,235 112,461 3412 135%
2022Q4 2022 Q4 $ 6,333 $ 35,319 $ 136 $ 13,591 $ 176,924 $ 4,953 $ 7,394 $ 1,581 $ 1,177 $ 2,758 268% 74% 57%4,02522,450 86 8,639 112,461 3286 139%
2023Q1 2023 Q1 $ 6,441 $ 36,993 $ 136 $ 14,836 $ 184,753 $ 4,981 $ 7,828 $ 1,674 $ 1,246 $ 2,920 268% 74% 64%3,92022,518 83 9,031 112,461 3166 144%
2023Q2 2023 Q2 $ 6,550 $ 38,756 $ 136 $ 16,148 $ 192,994 $ 5,013 $ 8,241 $ 1,763 $ 1,312 $ 3,074 268% 74% 72%3,81722,584 79 9,410 112,461 3052 148%
2023Q3 2023 Q3 $ 6,662 $ 40,602 $ 136 $ 17,522 $ 201,628 $ 5,052 $ 8,634 $ 1,847 $ 1,374 $ 3,221 268% 74% 79%3,71622,647 76 9,773 112,461 2944 152%
2023Q4 2023 Q4 $ 6,776 $ 42,529 $ 136 $ 18,955 $ 210,635 $ 5,096 $ 9,007 $ 1,926 $ 1,433 $ 3,360 268% 74% 87%3,61822,707 73 10,121112,461 2842 157%
2024Q1 2024 Q1 $ 6,891 $ 44,531 $ 136 $ 20,445 $ 219,996 $ 5,145 $ 9,362 $ 2,002 $ 1,490 $ 3,492 268% 74% 96%3,52322,764 70 10,451112,461 2747 162%
2024Q2 2024 Q2 $ 7,009 $ 46,605 $ 136 $ 21,989 $ 229,696 $ 5,200 $ 9,700 $ 2,074 $ 1,544 $ 3,618 268% 74%104%3,43222,818 67 10,766112,461 2658 166%
2024Q3 2024 Q3 $ 7,129 $ 48,749 $ 136 $ 23,584 $ 239,718 $ 5,259 $ 10,022 $ 2,143 $ 1,595 $ 3,738 268% 74%113%3,34422,870 64 11,064112,461 2575 171%
2024Q4 2024 Q4 $ 7,250 $ 50,958 $ 136 $ 25,227 $ 250,048 $ 5,323 $ 10,330 $ 2,209 $ 1,644 $ 3,853 268% 74%122%3,26122,919 61 11,346112,461 2497 176%
2025Q1 2025 Q1 $ 7,374 $ 53,231 $ 136 $ 26,918 $ 260,674 $ 5,392 $ 10,626 $ 2,273 $ 1,691 $ 3,964 268% 74%132%3,18122,965 59 11,613112,461 2425 180%
2025Q2 2025 Q2 $ 7,500 $ 55,564 $ 136 $ 28,655 $ 271,585 $ 5,465 $ 10,911 $ 2,334 $ 1,736 $ 4,070 268% 74%141%3,10623,009 56 11,866112,461 2358 185%
2025Q3 2025 Q3 $ 7,628 $ 57,957 $ 136 $ 30,435 $ 282,770 $ 5,541 $ 11,185 $ 2,392 $ 1,780 $ 4,172 268% 74%151%3,03423,050 54 12,104112,461 2295 190%
2025Q4 2025 Q4 $ 7,758 $ 60,406 $ 136 $ 32,257 $ 294,221 $ 5,622 $ 11,451 $ 2,449 $ 1,822 $ 4,272 268% 74%162%2,96523,089 52 12,330112,461 2236 195%
2026Q1 2026 Q1 $ 7,890 $ 62,910 $ 136 $ 34,121 $ 305,931 $ 5,706 $ 11,710 $ 2,504 $ 1,864 $ 4,368 268% 74%172%2,90023,126 50 12,543112,461 2181 199%
2026Q2 2026 Q2 $ 8,025 $ 65,469 $ 136 $ 36,024 $ 317,893 $ 5,794 $ 11,962 $ 2,558 $ 1,904 $ 4,462 268% 74%183%2,83923,161 48 12,744112,461 2130 204%
2026Q3 2026 Q3 $ 8,161 $ 68,080 $ 136 $ 37,967 $ 330,102 $ 5,884 $ 12,209 $ 2,611 $ 1,943 $ 4,554 268% 74%194%2,78023,194 46 12,935112,461 2082 209%
2026Q4 2026 Q4 $ 8,301 $ 70,743 $ 136 $ 39,949 $ 342,554 $ 5,978 $ 12,451 $ 2,663 $ 1,981 $ 4,644 268% 74%205%2,72523,225 45 13,115112,461 2037 213%
2027Q1 2027 Q1 $ 8,442 $ 73,457 $ 136 $ 41,968 $ 355,243 $ 6,076 $ 12,690 $ 2,714 $ 2,019 $ 4,734 268% 74%216%2,67323,255 43 13,286112,461 1995 218%
2027Q2 2027 Q2 $ 8,586 $ 76,221 $ 136 $ 44,025 $ 368,169 $ 6,176 $ 12,926 $ 2,765 $ 2,057 $ 4,821 268% 74%227%2,62323,283 42 13,448112,461 1955 222%
2027Q3 2027 Q3 $ 8,733 $ 79,036 $ 136 $ 46,119 $ 381,329 $ 6,278 $ 13,159 $ 2,814 $ 2,094 $ 4,909 268% 74%239%2,57523,309 40 13,601112,461 1918 226%
2027Q4 2027 Q4 $ 8,882 $ 81,900 $ 136 $ 48,250 $ 394,720 $ 6,384 $ 13,392 $ 2,864 $ 2,131 $ 4,995 268% 74%251%2,53123,334 39 13,747112,461 1883 231%
2028Q1 2028 Q1 $ 9,033 $ 84,814 $ 136 $ 50,418 $ 408,343 $ 6,492 $ 13,623 $ 2,914 $ 2,168 $ 5,081 268% 74%263%2,48823,358 37 13,886112,461 1850 235%
2028Q2 2028 Q2 $ 9,187 $ 87,777 $ 136 $ 52,623 $ 422,197 $ 6,604 $ 13,854 $ 2,963 $ 2,205 $ 5,168 268% 74%275%2,44723,381 36 14,017112,461 1819 239%
2028Q3 2028 Q3 $ 9,344 $ 90,789 $ 136 $ 54,864 $ 436,281 $ 6,717 $ 14,085 $ 3,012 $ 2,241 $ 5,254 268% 74%288%2,40923,403 35 14,142112,461 1789 243%
2028Q4 2028 Q4 $ 9,503 $ 93,851 $ 136 $ 57,143 $ 450,597 $ 6,833 $ 14,316 $ 3,062 $ 2,278 $ 5,340 268% 74%301%2,37223,423 34 14,262112,461 1761 247%
2029Q1 2029 Q1 $ 9,666 $ 96,962 $ 136 $ 59,458 $ 465,146 $ 6,952 $ 14,549 $ 3,112 $ 2,315 $ 5,427 268% 74%314%2,33723,443 33 14,375112,461 1735 251%
2029Q2 2029 Q2 $ 9,830 $ 100,124 $ 136 $ 61,810 $ 479,929 $ 7,073 $ 14,783 $ 3,162 $ 2,352 $ 5,514 268% 74%327%2,30423,462 32 14,484112,461 1710 255%
2029Q3 2029 Q3 $ 9,998 $ 103,336 $ 136 $ 64,200 $ 494,947 $ 7,197 $ 15,018 $ 3,212 $ 2,390 $ 5,602 268% 74%340%2,27223,480 31 14,587112,461 1686 258%
2029Q4 2029 Q4 $ 10,169 $ 106,599 $ 136 $ 66,628 $ 510,203 $ 7,323 $ 15,256 $ 3,263 $ 2,428 $ 5,691 268% 74%354%2,24123,497 30 14,686112,461 1664 262%
2030Q1 2030 Q1 $ 10,342 $ 109,913 $ 136 $ 69,094 $ 525,699 $ 7,452 $ 15,496 $ 3,314 $ 2,466 $ 5,780 268% 74%367%2,21223,513 29 14,781112,461 1643 266%
2030Q2 2030 Q2 $ 10,519 $ 113,279 $ 136 $ 71,599 $ 541,437 $ 7,583 $ 15,739 $ 3,366 $ 2,505 $ 5,871 268% 74%381%2,18523,529 28 14,872112,461 1622 269%
2030Q3 2030 Q3 $ 10,698 $ 116,698 $ 136 $ 74,142 $ 557,422 $ 7,717 $ 15,984 $ 3,419 $ 2,544 $ 5,962 268% 74%396%2,15823,544 27 14,958112,461 1603 273%
2030Q4 2030 Q4 $ 10,880 $ 120,170 $ 136 $ 76,726 $ 573,655 $ 7,853 $ 16,233 $ 3,472 $ 2,583 $ 6,055 268% 74%410%2,13323,558 27 15,042112,461 1584 276%
2031Q1 2031 Q1 $ 11,066 $ 123,695 $ 136 $ 79,349 $ 590,140 $ 7,991 $ 16,485 $ 3,526 $ 2,623 $ 6,149 268% 74%425%2,10923,572 26 15,121112,461 1567 279%
2031Q2 2031 Q2 $ 11,255 $ 127,276 $ 136 $ 82,013 $ 606,881 $ 8,133 $ 16,741 $ 3,581 $ 2,664 $ 6,245 268% 74%440%2,08623,585 25 15,198112,461 1550 283%
2031Q3 2031 Q3 $ 11,447 $ 130,912 $ 136 $ 84,719 $ 623,882 $ 8,276 $ 17,001 $ 3,636 $ 2,705 $ 6,342 268% 74%455%2,06323,598 25 15,271112,461 1534 286%

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Inflation predictions based on game theory model

  • 1. INFLATION PREDICTIONS BASED ON GAME THEORY MODEL TABLE OF CONTENTS Author.......................................................................................................................................................................2 Month of Publication..................................................................................................................................................2 Objectives and Scope..................................................................................................................................................2 Objectives...............................................................................................................................................................2 Non-Objectives .......................................................................................................................................................2 Economic Fundamentals.............................................................................................................................................2 Model Principles.........................................................................................................................................................3 Model Assumptions for Next 10 Years..........................................................................................................................4 Model Tuningfor United States...................................................................................................................................7 Variable Names for Tuning Data...............................................................................................................................7 Tuning Data Source and Data...................................................................................................................................7 Model TuningAssumptions......................................................................................................................................7 Model Tuning Mathematics.........................................................................................................................................8 Model Constants.....................................................................................................................................................8 Variables.................................................................................................................................................................8 Model TuningVariables...........................................................................................................................................8 Model Tuning Equations FromAccompanying Excel Sheet.........................................................................................9 TuningProcess........................................................................................................................................................9 Model Tuning Results..............................................................................................................................................9 Using Model for Predictions........................................................................................................................................9 Case 1: Fixed Consumption......................................................................................................................................9 Constants for this Case ......................................................................................................................................10 Equations for this Case ......................................................................................................................................10 Case 2: Austerity ...................................................................................................................................................10 Constants for this Case ......................................................................................................................................10 Equations for this Case ......................................................................................................................................10 Model Predictions ....................................................................................................................................................11 For Fixed Consumption..........................................................................................................................................11 For Austerity.........................................................................................................................................................11 The Middle Path....................................................................................................................................................12
  • 2. Appendix..................................................................................................................................................................12 Attached excel Sheet.............................................................................................................................................12 Excel Calculation Table for Fixed Consumption........................................................................................................12 TuningParameters............................................................................................................................................12 Numerical Results..............................................................................................................................................13 Excel Calculation Table for Austerity Case...............................................................................................................13 TuningParameters............................................................................................................................................13 Numerical Results..............................................................................................................................................13 AUTHOR  Alias:Leo1992  Email:leoleo1992@protonmail.com MONTH OF PUBLICATION Decemberof 2021 OBJECTIVES AND SCOPE OBJECTIVES 1. Create an approximate mathematical macroeconomicmodel fordevelopedeconomieslike UnitedStatesbased bothon EconomicFundamentals, andGame Theory. 2. Simulate thisMathematical Model inExcel topredictmajoroutcomespossiblefordevelopedeconomieslike UnitedStates. NON-OBJECTIVES 1. The model isfor whole economy.There isnoattempttomodel individual sectorsorcompanies. ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS Thissectionreiteratessome fundamental rulesof economythatare usedto buildthe model 1. Moneycan onlybe createdbydoingwork.Thiswork can create goodsor servicesthatare valuable,andmoney representsthisvalue. a. Governmentandfed can onlyprintthe currency,buttheycannot printreal moneythatis backedby goodsand services. b. Printingcurrencydoesnotbyitself create more goodsandservicesforpeople toconsume. c. Actual productivityisthe creationof money(value) andnotthe printingof currency. d. Alsoprintingcurrencyisveryeasytodaybecause governmentsdon’treallyhavetothe printcurrency notes,theyjustpressa buttonto generate numbersinadatabase andcreateddata filesforTreasuries. 2. Central Bankis notall powerful andthe Governmentisnotall powerful aswell. a. Both Central Banksandgovernmentruntreasurydepartmentscannotcreate real money.
  • 3. b. Whena governmentissuestreasuries,itcreateddebtthatissupposedtobe paidback bythe hard work of all itstaxpayers. c. Governmenthaspowertocollectmoneyastaxesand redistribute itunequallythroughitsown spending. d. Currencyspentbya governmentcanbe currencyearnedbyothernon-governmententities. 3. Central Banksand Governmentshave repeatedlybeenproven wrongontheireconomicpredictions a. Despite all theirexpertise,boththeseentitieshave notbeenable topredictthe type,nature andscale of majoreconomiccrisis,time andagain. b. As theyhave beencaughtunaware,theyhave respondedbyprintingcurrencytomitigate the crisis. c. These entitieshave notbeenable togetthe economytoa state where theycanhandle the nextcrisis withoutprintingmore currencyagain. 4. Financial Investmentsbringprosperityonlywhenthe activityinvestedinisproductive andcreatesreal value. a. Investmentsrequire someonetotake money,use ittobuy resourcesandlaborto create something valuable tosell itformore money. 5. Bondsand stocksare productive investmentswhen a. Theyare usedto raise moneytofundproductive activitiesthatcreate more value thatwhatwasfunded. 6. If the moneyraisedfromBondsandStocksis usedto fundactivitiesthatisnotcreatingmore value,these investmentsbecome counterproductive andlose real money. 7. Real estate isa productive investmentwhen a. A specificareadevelopsbecausenew businessesenablepeople tobe more productive.Thisareathen becomesmore desirabledue tobetteropportunitiescausingpeople towanttomove there. b. A house mayalsoappreciate byvalue basedonSupplyand Demandif the numberof housesinan area are limitedandthe overall productivityof the areagoesup(i.e.the productof numberof people inthe area and the average productivityperpersoninthe area). c. Buildinghousesisaproductive activityashousesprovide shelter.Similarlyremodelinghousesis productive againif itimprovesthe qualityof shelter. 8. If the above doesnothold,a house isnormallynotaninvestmentbecausehousesbythemselvesare not productive.Housesdon’tgrowbythemselvesand dorequire maintenance. a. House pricescan still inflate incurrencydue tocurrencyprintinglike everyotherassetandcommodity and so housescanbe a hedge againstinflation. 9. Printingcurrenciesoftencausesinflation a. Whena governmentprintscurrencythatisnot backedby real goodsand services,the amountof currencythat chasesthese goodsandservicescanincrease while the latterremainsthe same.Thiscan cause inflation. b. As the governmentcontrolsdistributionsof thiscurrency,theycandirectit to targetspecificsectorsso that the goodsand servicesfromthese sectorsinflate more thanothers. 10. GovernmentsandCentral Bankscan create currencyintwo forms a. Governmentscancreate treasuriesthatdirectlyincreasethe debtandbringsmore currencyinto circulation. b. Central Bankscan buy treasuries,Mortgage-BackedSecurities,Bonds,Stocksandanyotherassetsby printingreservesoutof thinair.Thisresultsinmore liquidityasnow financial entitiescanlendmore currencyto buy assetsandotherbusinessescanborrow more currencyat artificiallylowinterestrates. MODEL PRINCIPLES
  • 4. Thissectionlaysouta setof principlesonwhichthe model isbased.Some of these principlesare basedonandcurrent and historical trends.Othersassume that all entitieswillcontinuetoworkintheirownbestinterestlike isassumedin othermodelsbasedonGame Theory. 1. In currentFinancial System,there shouldalwaysbe sufficientcollateral informof assetstomathematically justifythe debtinthe balance sheetsof entitiesatmacroeconomiclevel. a. Balance sheetsare accountedforin currenciesandnotin real money. b. CurrencyinflationthatraisesAssetvaluesandnotthe Debtcan helpbalance the Balance Sheetsof otherwise insolventcompanies 2. If debtin balance sheetof large financial entitiesishigh,the Governmentwill ensure thatBigInvestorsdon’t lose moneyirrespectiveof the state of economytoprotectassetcollateral a. These investmentsinclude stock,bond,treasuries,andreal estate. b. Big investorsare smart,andhence lookat the real moneyearnedoveractual currencyinflationto determine if theyare makingmoneyorlosingit.The governmentknowsthis. c. Thisis because,if biginvestorswalkawayfromthese investments,the pricesof these investmentswill collapse.However,inmanycases,these veryinvestmentsshow upasassetsinbalance sheetsof large financial entitiesandare usedas collateral.So,adrop inpricesof these assetswouldmake these large financial entitiesinsolvent. 3. To ensure biginvestorsdon’tlose moneyinanenvironmentwhereeconomyisnotdoingwell,Governmentwill have to playa Zero-Sumgame of transferringsome wealthtobiginvestors a. The simplestmethodof doingthisisusingCentral BankstobuyAssets normallyheldbybiginvestorslike TreasuriesandMortgage-BackedSecuritiestopumpupthe price of these Assets. b. Thisalsoartificiallyreducesinterestrates(yields) thatresultsinmore liquiditythatcango intobuying more assetslike Commercial andResidential Real estate andStockstherebyraisingthe pricesof these assetsas well toagaincompensate the biginvestors. 4. All governmentsandcentral banksmeasure GDPintheirowncurrencyunitandnot as a measure of real productivityandthismay not alwaysbe accurate.For Example: a. Suppose anauto companymanufacturesandsells1,000,000 unitsof a specificcarmodel for$40,000 in one year,and then,nextyearitmanufacturesandsellsonly900,000 unitsof identical carsat $50,000. So total salesinfirstyearis $40 Billionandinthe secondyearis $45 Billion. b. Real productivityof thiscar companymaybe measuredincar unitsas theywere nearlyidentical and hence decreasedby10%. c. Accordingto the governmentstatistics,there wouldonlybe a4% netinflationcorrectiontoGDPand GDP contributionof car companywouldgrow by 12.5% - 4% = 8.5%. d. Stock analystsmaypredictthatthe car company’srevenuesgrew by12.5% and hence the stock price can go up by “50%” insecondyearafteraccounting for future growthpossibilities. e. Similarly,whenyougetabasic Haircut for$15 inone year andget the same haircut nextyearfor$25, GDP wouldgrowsignificantlyevenwhenthere wasnogrowthinactual productivity(asitwasan equivalenthaircut!). MODEL ASSUMPTIONS FOR NEXT 10 YEARS Thismodel onlyattemptstopredictdatafor next10 yearsand assumesthatthe followingwill holdvalidforthese 10 years. 1. Interestrateswouldneverrise above real inflationrate ashasbeenthe trendfor last10+ years.
  • 5. a. HighInterestRates=> HighCost of ServicingDebt=> Bankruptcies=> AssetPrice crash=> Not enough Collateral inBalance Sheet=>Financial MarketCrash=> Big InvestorsLose Moneythatis notallowedas statedabove. b. To avoidHyperinflation throughJawboning,the central bankswouldkeeppretendingthattheywould beginraisingratesinfuture butwouldyieldonfirstmarkettantrumfromanyuncertainty. 2. These artificiallyloweredinterestrateswouldresultinthe assetpricestogetdistorted a. To maintainlowinterestrates,Central bankswill have tobuyTreasuriesandMortgage-backed securitiesandattimesevencorporate andmunicipal bonds. b. The abilitytotake a large amountof debtat negative real interestrate will resultinissuingof bonds and treasuriestocreate significantliquidity. c. In an environmentwhere Productivityisnotincreasing,mostof thisliquiditywill chase bothphysical and financial assetstherebyresultinginassetprice inflation. 3. DistortedAssetPriceswill hurtProductivity a. Higherhouse pricesandhigherRentsthatwill resultinincrease inwagesthatwouldresultinhighercost of Production. b. Thisartificiallyhighercostof Productionwouldresultinlackof competitivenessforlow margin businessesthatwouldhave toclose. c. As these once profitablebusinesseswillclose,jobopportunitiesinproductivesectorswillreduce and thiswill hurtnetproductivity. d. There may alsobe significantdemotivationashigherpercentage of populationrealizesthattheir significanthardworkisno longersufficienttosustainadecentlifestyle. 4. Consumptionof goodsandserviceswillremainthe same inreal terms a. Developedeconomieswillpreventconsumptionof actual goodsandServicesfromfallingforboth Economicand Political reasons. i. Economicreason:Drop inConsumption=>Drop in GDP => Drop inProfitability=>Big Investors Lose Money thatis not allowedasstatedabove. ii. Political reason:Topreventlivingstandardsof General Populationfromdegradingrapidlyas that can cause political unrest. b. As productivityisnotincreasingandinflationcanrun high,itwouldbe hardto evenmaintainnet consumptioninreal terms.However,thismodel assumesthatthe lossinconsumptionbygeneral populationwillbe offsetbyextravagance frombiginvestorswhoexperience wealtheffectthrough distortedAssetPricesandhence the netreal consumptionwouldremainsteady. 5. Real Inflationwillrise significantlyindevelopedeconomies a. As productivitywill getreduced,tomaintainconsumption,developedeconomieswill resorttoissuing treasurestopay for expenses. b. As thislargeramountof currency unitschase a smallernumberof goodsandservices,the pricesof these goodsandserviceswill rise significantly. 6. GovernmentsandCentral Banksof developedeconomieswill be forcedtoplayaZero-Sumgame and must compensate biginvestorsforall the currencyprinting a. All biginvestorsholdingBonds,StocksandReal Estate will demandapositivereal returnfromtheir investments. b. For thisan ever-increasingshare of printedcurrencymustbe divertedtowardsinflatingassetsheldby biginvestors.Thisamountmustbe highenoughtoinflate these assetshigherthanthe inflationof currency. 7. The model assumesthatall thisinflationcompensationtoBigInvestorswouldbe providedthroughcentral banksbuyingassets.
  • 6. a. The model alsoassumesthattodaythisis the onlymoneythatis goingintoinflatingassetvalues. 8. The model assumesthatbiginvestorsare smartenoughto demandinflationcompensationintermsof cash inflowstotheirinvestmentsasagainstassetinflationincurrency. a. Cash inflowsandprice doesnothave adirectcorrelation,andina bubble phase,assetvaluationscan inflate five timesthe amountof the CashInflow.Fore.g.If a companyhas a total 100 sharesand Last tradedshare value was$10 givingittotal Market Cap of $1000. Now if an investorbuys20 sharesof this companyat $11, the total cash inflow is20 x ($11 - $10) = $20. However,these orderspushthe total marketcapitalizationof thisshare to$11 x 100 = $1100 that ishigherthanpreviousvalue by$100. Hence inthisexample a$20 cash inflow hasresultedin$100 increase intotal valuation,thatis5X of the cash inflow. 9. The model assumesthatdecrease in productivityindevelopedeconomiesisafunctionof the following: a. Distortionof assetprices:Higherassetpricesleadtohighercostof labor that will make businessesnon profitable resultinginoutsourcingof jobstodevelopingeconomies.Thiswould hurtproductivityof developedeconomies.Thismodelassumesthatthe decrease inproductivityinthisspecificenvironment will be directlyproportional toDistortionof assetpricesintermsof real money. b. Decrease incapital that isusedforoperating expensesinproductive businesses:Asprofitsfromcore businessesandlaborreduce,more capital will be puttowardsspeculatingininflatedfinancialassets (e.g.BuyingstocksusingmarginthroughRobinhood,buyingandflippinghousesetc.) causinglesser capital for use as operatingexpensesinproductivebusinesses.Asthisishardto calculate byitself,this model will assume thatthisiscapturedinproductivitychange w.r.t.distortioninAssetprices. c. Futilityof labor:Asqualityof life between beingemployedandunemployedgetsnarrower,manyfolks may tendto optfor latter.Asthisis hard tocalculate by itself,thismodel will assumethatthisis capturedinproductivitychange w.r.t.distortioninAssetprices. 10. The model alsoassumesthatCentral Banksof developedeconomieswill neverbe able toreduce theirbalance sheetsizes a. Most corporatesprefertouse cash forshare buybacksinsteadof keepingitasbufferforrainydays.Only feware reinvestingthiscashtogrow theircore business. b. There will be some orotherform of recurringfinancial stressinthe overleveragedfinancialsystemthat lackssavingsas buffers.So,toprotectthe systemfromimplodingdue tolackof collateral,central banks and governmentswill keepresortingback tomoneyprintingtosave majorentitiesandcutlossesof big investors. c. Central bankshave beenrepeatedlywrongonwhentheywouldreduce balance sheetsandstart increasinginterestrates.Thiswouldnotchange andwhile central bankswillkeepplanningthese actions for nearfuture,theywouldneverbe able toincrease interestratesabove real rate of inflation. 11. Populationanditsdemographicswill notchange significantlytocause anyeffectonthismodel. 12. There will be nomajorinnovation/ discoverythatcansignificantlychange humanproductivity.Examplesof such majorinnovationsanddiscoveriesfromhistoryare Wheel,Fire,Agriculture,Metals,Steam/ICEngines, Electricity,Crude Oil,Polymers,Petrochemicals,NuclearPower,GreenRevolution,Electronics, Computers/Smartphones,Internetetc. 13. Major Global Currencieswill inflateinternationallyinasynchronized/linkedmanner a. While manydevelopedeconomieswill become netimportersdue toreducedproductivity,still their combinedmilitarymightwillpreventtheircurrenciesfromcollapsingastheywill still control exportof Energy(Crude Oil,LNG,NuclearFuel) andwill alsobe able tomaintaincontrol oncore technologies. b. Countriesthatare net exporterof goodscanstill claimsupplychainshortagesandhigherinputcosts and use themto raise prices.Theircurrencieswill notappreciate astheyneedtoconsume energyand technologyatinflatedcost.
  • 7. c. As productionandmanufacturingindevelopedeconomieswill remaininfeasibledue todistortedasset prices,theywill have toacceptthisprice rise fromnetexportercountries. MODEL TUNING FOR UNITED STATES VARIABLE NAMES FOR TUNING DATA Name Description TW Total HouseholdWealthassummationof all Assetsminusall Liabilities.Here all Assetsinclude financial assetslikeCommercial andResidential Real estate,Stocks,Commodities,Treasuries,MBS and variousbonds. GDP Gross DomesticProductof a Quarter,also the total Consumptionof GoodsandServices TD Total Federal GovernmentDebt,alsothe Total OutstandingTreasury+CashValuation TGA Cash heldbyFederal Government BS Total Balance Sheetof Central Bank TUNING DATA SOURCE AND DATA All figuresbeloware inBillionsof Dollars. Year Quarter Quarterly GDP TD TGA BS TW Source -> GDP Source TD Source TGA Source BS Source TW Source 2018 Q3 $5,188 $21,516 $368 $4,175 $108,000 2018 Q4 $5,283 $21,974 $380 $4,058 $104,330 2019 Q1 $5,117 $22,028 $310 $3,969 $110,113 2019 Q2 $5,345 $22,023 $245 $3,813 $112,461 2019 Q3 $5,398 $22,719 $335 $3,946 $113,171 2019 Q4 $5,513 $23,201 $383 $4,174 $116,814 2020 Q1 $5,224 $23,687 $429 $5,812 $110,586 2020 Q2 $4,877 $26,477 $1,658 $7,009 $118,585 2020 Q3 $5,302 $26,945 $1,697 $7,075 $122,911 2020 Q4 $5,490 $27,748 $1,669 $7,335 $130,916 2021 Q1 $5,368 $28,133 $1,010 $7,709 $136,206 2021 Q2 $5,712 $28,529 $753 $8,098 $142,347 2021 Q3 $5,819 $28,429 $136 $8,464 $144,709 MODEL TUNING ASSUMPTIONS 1. We usedthe above available dataforQ3 2018 to Q3 2021 forthistuning. 2. The total Productivityof US Peakedin2019 Q2 before COVID19 and TaperTantrum that causedUS Fed to start increasingitsbalance sheetagain. 3. US Productivityfell duringLockdownsdue toCOVID19 and Unemploymentsoared,andlaborparticipationrates decreased. 4. So,this model assumesthatthe Actual Total HouseholdWealthof UShas notincreasedfrom2019 Q2 to 2021 Q3 andthe increase inTotal HouseholdWealthof USintermsof USD is a resultof Assetinflation.
  • 8. 5. Furtherthismodel alsoassumesthatTotal Inflationof USDcurrency matchesAssetInflationandhence the actual inflationcompensatedvalueforfinancial datalike GDPcanbe obtainedbyaccountingforassetinflation. 6. For more assumptions,see Model Constantsbelow. MODEL TUNING MATHEMATICS MODEL CONSTANTS Name Value Details C_TP 50% Thisis the fractionof PrintedCurrencythatis usedforConsumption.Thismodelassumes that exactly50% of all PrintedCurrencyisusedforConsumptioninthe same Quarter. C_MTP 20% As Assumedbythe model,thisisthe fractionof 2019 Q2 Productivitythatwill notbe affectedbyAssetInflation. VARIABLES Name Description TW Total HouseholdWealthassummationof all Assetsminusall Liabilities.Here all Assetsinclude financial assetslikeCommercial andResidential Real estate,Stocks,Commodities,Treasuries, MBS andvariousbonds. GDP Gross DomesticProductof a Quarter alsothe total Consumptionof GoodsandServices TD Total Federal GovernmentDebtalsothe Total OutstandingTreasuryValuation TGA Cash heldbyFederal Government BS Total Balance Sheetof Central Bank TP Total productionof Goodsand ServicesinaQuarter ∆<VariableName> Whena variable isprecededby ∆,itrepresentschange inRespective Variableoverlastquarter. e.g.∆TW, ∆BS TDS Total DebtSpendinginaQuarter,Measuredas ∆TD - ∆TGA. TIC Total Increase inCurrencyUnits,measuredasTDS + ∆BS AINR Actual AssetInflationrate asmeasuredinTW/(TWon 2019 Q2) - 1. <VariableName>’ Whena variable issucceededby ‘,itrepresentsitrepresentsActual variablevalue correctedfor inflationbyusingAINRasbase.e.g.GDP’,TD’, TGA’,BS’,TW’, TP’ M_TP’ ModeledTP’byTuningrespective TuningVariablesasgivenbelow TD/GDP Federal GovernmentDebttoGDP ratio MODEL TUNING VARIABLES The followingVariableswere derivedfromModel tuningforuse inFuture Predictions Name Details TV_TW The ratio for cumulative increase inTotal HouseholdWealthtocumulativeincreaseinCurrency Unitsover lastcouple of years.Thisratiois proportional toratioof AssetInflationtocashinflows towardsthese assetsdue toincrease inCurrencyunits.We calculate the average forlast4 quarters and use itfor predictions. TV_BS The ratio for cumulative increase Central Bankbalance sheettocumulativeGovernmentDept Spendingoverlastcouple of years.The ratiorepresentsthe InflationCompensationgiven tobig investors.We calculate the average forlast4 quartersand use itfor predictions.
  • 9. TV_TP The ratio of AINRby whichthe Inflationcompensatedproductivity(TP’) isreduceddue to distortionof AssetPrices. MODEL TUNING EQUATIONS FROM ACCOMPANYING EXCEL SHEET 1. TDS = ∆TD - ∆TGA 2. TIC = TDS + ∆BS 3. TP = GDP - (TIC* C_TP) 4. AINR= TW / TW(2019 Q2) – 1 5. TV_TW = ∑∆TW / ∑TIC 6. TV_BS = ∑∆BS / ∑TDS 7. GDP’ = GDP / (1 + AINR) 8. TD’ = TD / (1 + AINR) 9. TGA’ = TGA / (1 + AINR) 10. BS’ = BS / (1 + AINR) 11. TW’ = TW / (1 + AINR) 12. TP’ = TP / (1 + AINR) 13. M_TP’ = TP’(2019 Q2) * (C_MTP + (1 - C_MPT) / (1 + AINR(Last Quarter) * TV_TP)) TUNING PROCESS 1. TV_TP ischangedby Goal SeekingtosetM_TP’ value same asTP’ for 2021 Q3. 2. For TV_TW and TV_BS,averagesare takenforlast 4 years. MODEL TUNING RESULTS 1. For last9 quartersfrom2019 Q2 to 2021 Q3, whenassumingthatUS as a whole didnotreallygetwealthierin termsof actual goodsand servicesdue toCovid19 pandemic,the combinednetassetinflationrate comesto ~28.7%. So, the average annual compoundednetassetinflationforlast9 quartershas been 11.8% per year. 2. US QuarterlyGDP (aka Consumption) inactual termspeakedin2019 Q2 and is still 15.4% belowthat value asof 2021 Q3. 3. US QuarterlyProductivityinactual termspeakedin2019 Q2 and isstill 22.5% belowthat value asof 2021 Q3. 4. TV_BS ~= 74%. 5. TV_TW ~= 268% 6. TV_TP ~= 147% USING MODEL FOR PREDICTIONS It’shard to accuratelypredicthowmuch stimulusandspendingwillhappenovernextone decade.So,tosimpli fythis, we will considertwobordercasesthatwill helpusdefinethe range foractual outcome that isexpectedtobe within these bordercases. CASE 1: FIXED CONSUMPTION 1. For thiscase,we will assume governmentwill spendenoughmoneytoensure thatnet consumptioninreal term remainsconstantas productivitydrops. 2. While thismeansthatGDP inreal termswill holdsteady,livingstandardsforsome insocietymaystill gohigher at the expenseof livingstandardsforothersgoinglower. 3. Thiscase isrepresentedinaccompanyingExcel WorkbookinWorksheetwithname “FixedConsumption”.
  • 10. CONSTANTS FOR THIS CASE 1. GDP’ = 4,535 billionUSD 2. TV_TP = 137% 3. TV_TW = 271% 4. TV_BS = 74% 5. TGA = 136 billion(Made Constantforease) 6. ∆TGA = 0 EQUATIONS FOR THIS CASE 1. M_TP’ = TP’(2019 Q2) * (C_MTP + (1 - C_MPT) / (1 + AINR(Last Quarter) * TV_TP)) 2. TP = M_TP’ * (1 + AINR(Last Quarter)) 3. GDP = GDP’ * (1 + AINR(Last Quarter)) 4. TIC = (GDP – TP) / C_TP 5. TDS = TIC / (1+ TV_TW) 6. ∆BS = TIC * TV_TW / (1+ TV_TW) 7. ∆TW = TV_TW * TIC 8. ∆TD = TDS (as∆TGA = 0) 9. AINR= TW / TW(2019 Q2) – 1 10. GDP’ = GDP / (1 + AINR) 11. TD’ = TD / (1 + AINR) 12. TGA’ = TGA / (1 + AINR) 13. BS’ = BS / (1 + AINR) 14. TW’ = TW / (1 + AINR) CASE 2: AUSTERITY 1. For thiscase,we will assume thatgovernmentwill preferAusterityandwillletthe netconsumptiondecreasein real term as productivitydropstoreduce the rate at whichdebtgrows. 2. It’sstill requiredthatgovernmentcanprojecta positive impressionof growthandforthis,sowe assume that the governmentwill fix itsownmeasuredinflationataround5% and will control stimulusandspendingsuch that the Nominal GDPcomesto 2% aftercompensatingforitsownInflationof 5%. 3. Thiscase isrepresentedinaccompanyingExcel WorkbookinWorksheetwithname “Austerity”. CONSTANTS FOR THIS CASE 1. C_GMIN = 5% (Thisisthe governmentmeasuredAnnualinflationrate) 2. C_NGDP = 2% (Thisisthe governmentmeasuredAnnual GDPaftercompensatingforC_GMIN) 3. TV_TP = 90% 4. TV_TW = 271% 5. TV_BS = 74% 6. TGA = 136 Billion(Made Constantforease) 7. ∆TGA = 0 EQUATIONS FOR THIS CASE 1. ∆GDP = GDP(Previous Quarter) * (1 + (GMIN + C_NGDP))^(1/4) [Here 1/4 comes from annual to quarterly conversion] 2. M_TP’ = TP’(2019 Q2) * (C_MTP + (1 - C_MPT) / (1 + AINR(Last Quarter) * TV_TP))
  • 11. 3. TP = M_TP’ * (1 + AINR(Last Quarter)) 4. TIC = (GDP – TP) / C_TP 5. TDS = TIC / (1+ TV_TW) 6. ∆BS = TIC * TV_TW / (1+ TV_TW) 7. ∆TW = TV_TW * TIC 8. ∆TD = TDS (as∆TGA = 0) 9. AINR= TW / TW(2019 Q2) – 1 10. GDP’ = GDP / (1 + AINR) 11. TD’ = TD / (1 + AINR) 12. TGA’ = TGA / (1 + AINR) 13. BS’ = BS / (1 + AINR) 14. TW’ = TW / (1 + AINR) MODEL PREDICTIONS FOR FIXED CONSUMPTION 1. If we go downthe pathof fixedconsumption,the model predictsthat: a. The Actual AssetInflationRate will reachanannual value of 50% injust 4 yearsand so will resultin Hyperinflationwithinadecade. b. The actual productivityfordevelopingeconomieswill take asignificanthit. c. Due to hyperinflation,all numbersmeasuredinUSDwill show exponentialgrowth d. Real Debtto GDP whencorrectedfor AINRwill notjumpsignificantly. 2. The above showsthat while “FixedConsumption”preventsthe societyfromgettingpoorer,itsunsustainable and we are veryclose tothe endof its run. FOR AUSTERITY
  • 12. 1. If we practice austeritysuchthatstatedGDP grown remains2% in dollartermsandinflationisstatedas5%, we see that the netconsumptionreducestonearlyhalf overthe nextdecade. 2. Decrease inconsumptionwouldmeanthatthe societywouldgetpoorer. 3. Evenin thiscase Actual AssetInflationRate indicatesAssetinflationof 5timesinnext10 yearsintermsof USD. While thisisnothyperinflation,it’sstillsignificantlyhighinflation. THE MIDDLE PATH 1. The above two casesare twoboundaryconditionsandthe actual path chosenmaylie betweenthese twocases. 2. Evenfor the middle path,the model predictsthatmajorworldcurrenciesare goingtolose significantvaluewith respectto real goodsand servicesandsodiversifyingintootherAssetclassesmayhelp. APPENDIX ATTACHED EXCEL SHEET INFLATION PREDICTIONS BASED ON GAME THEORY MODEL.xlsx EXCEL CALCULATION TABLE FOR FIXED CONSUMPTION TUNING PARAMETERS C_TP 50% C_MTP 20%
  • 13. TV_TP 147% NUMERICAL RESULTS Actual Equivalent of Q2 USD Year Quarter Time GDP TD TGA BS TW TP ∆ TW TDS ∆ BS TIC TV_TW TV_BS AINR GDP' TD' TGA' BS' TW' TP' M_TP' TD/GDP 2018 Q3 2018 Q3 $ 5,188 $ 21,516 $ 368 $ 4,175 $ 108,000 2018 Q4 2018 Q4 $ 5,283 $ 21,974 $ 380 $ 4,058 $ 104,330 $ 5,118 $ (3,670) $ 446 $ (117) $ 329 5,28321,974 380 4,058 104,3305,118 104% 2019 Q1 2019 Q1 $ 5,117 $ 22,028 $ 310 $ 3,969 $ 110,113 $ 5,100 $ 5,782 $ 124 $ (89) $ 35 5,11722,028 310 3,969 110,1135,100 108% 2019 Q2 2019 Q2 $ 5,345 $ 22,023 $ 245 $ 3,813 $ 112,461 $ 5,393 $ 2,348 $ 60 $ (156) $ (96) 0%5,34522,023 245 3,813 112,4615,393 103% 2019 Q3 2019 Q3 $ 5,398 $ 22,719 $ 335 $ 3,946 $ 113,171 $ 5,028 $ 710 $ 606 $ 133 $ 739 95% 22% 1%5,36422,577 333 3,921 112,4614,997 5393 105% 2019 Q4 2019 Q4 $ 5,513 $ 23,201 $ 383 $ 4,174 $ 116,814 $ 5,182 $ 3,643 $ 434 $ 228 $ 662 311% 35% 4%5,30822,337 369 4,018 112,4614,989 5353 105% 2020 Q1 2020 Q1 $ 5,224 $ 23,687 $ 429 $ 5,812 $ 110,586 $ 4,185 $ (6,228) $ 439 $ 1,638 $ 2,077 -54% 135% -2%5,31324,089 436 5,911 112,4614,256 5160 113% 2020 Q2 2020 Q2 $ 4,877 $ 26,477 $ 1,658 $ 7,009 $ 118,585 $ 3,498 $ 7,999 $ 1,561 $ 1,197 $ 2,758 98% 105% 5%4,62525,1101,572 6,647 112,4613,317 5502 136% 2020 Q3 2020 Q3 $ 5,302 $ 26,945 $ 1,697 $ 7,075 $ 122,911 $ 5,054 $ 4,326 $ 429 $ 66 $ 495 155% 94% 9%4,85124,6551,553 6,474 112,4614,625 5072 127% 2020 Q4 2020 Q4 $ 5,490 $ 27,748 $ 1,669 $ 7,335 $ 130,916 $ 4,945 $ 8,006 $ 830 $ 260 $ 1,090 236% 82% 16%4,71623,8361,434 6,301 112,4614,248 4873 126% 2021 Q1 2021 Q1 $ 5,368 $ 28,133 $ 1,010 $ 7,709 $ 136,206 $ 4,659 $ 5,290 $ 1,044 $ 374 $ 1,418 257% 73% 21%4,43223,228 834 6,365 112,4613,847 4552 131% 2021 Q2 2021 Q2 $ 5,712 $ 28,529 $ 753 $ 8,098 $ 142,347 $ 5,191 $ 6,141 $ 654 $ 389 $ 1,043 291% 71% 27%4,51322,540 595 6,398 112,4614,101 4369 125% 2021 Q3 2021 Q3 $ 5,819 $ 28,429 $ 136 $ 8,464 $ 144,709 $ 5,378 $ 2,362 $ 516 $ 366 $ 882 289% 71% 29%4,52222,094 106 6,578 112,4614,1794,178 122% $ 5,819 $ 28,429 $ 136 $ 8,464 $ 144,709 268% 74% 29%4,546 112,4614,179 4111 122% 2021 Q4 2021 Q4 $ 5,849 $ 29,071 $ 136 $ 8,942 $ 147,711 $ 5,290 $ 3,001 $ 642 $ 478 $ 1,120 268% 74% 31%4,54622,133 104 6,808 112,461 4111 124% 2022 Q1 2022 Q1 $ 5,971 $ 29,849 $ 136 $ 9,521 $ 151,349 $ 5,292 $ 3,638 $ 778 $ 579 $ 1,357 268% 74% 35%4,54622,180 101 7,074 112,461 4029 125% 2022 Q2 2022 Q2 $ 6,118 $ 30,790 $ 136 $ 10,221 $ 155,750 $ 5,297 $ 4,401 $ 941 $ 700 $ 1,642 268% 74% 38%4,54622,232 98 7,380 112,461 3936 126% 2022 Q3 2022 Q3 $ 6,296 $ 31,926 $ 136 $ 11,066 $ 161,059 $ 5,305 $ 5,310 $ 1,136 $ 845 $ 1,981 268% 74% 43%4,54622,292 95 7,727 112,461 3831 127% 2022 Q4 2022 Q4 $ 6,510 $ 33,292 $ 136 $ 12,083 $ 167,448 $ 5,319 $ 6,389 $ 1,366 $ 1,017 $ 2,383 268% 74% 49%4,54622,360 91 8,115 112,461 3714 128% 2023 Q1 2023 Q1 $ 6,768 $ 34,932 $ 136 $ 13,303 $ 175,115 $ 5,339 $ 7,667 $ 1,640 $ 1,220 $ 2,860 268% 74% 56%4,54622,434 87 8,543 112,461 3585 129% 2023 Q2 2023 Q2 $ 7,078 $ 36,894 $ 136 $ 14,762 $ 184,288 $ 5,368 $ 9,173 $ 1,962 $ 1,460 $ 3,422 268% 74% 64%4,54622,514 83 9,009 112,461 3447 130% 2023 Q3 2023 Q3 $ 7,449 $ 39,234 $ 136 $ 16,504 $ 195,230 $ 5,408 $ 10,942 $ 2,340 $ 1,741 $ 4,082 268% 74% 74%4,54622,601 78 9,507 112,461 3300 132% 2023 Q4 2023 Q4 $ 7,891 $ 42,017 $ 136 $ 18,575 $ 208,244 $ 5,464 $ 13,015 $ 2,783 $ 2,071 $ 4,855 268% 74% 85%4,54622,691 73 10,031112,461 3148 133% 2024 Q1 2024 Q1 $ 8,417 $ 45,319 $ 136 $ 21,031 $ 223,680 $ 5,539 $ 15,436 $ 3,301 $ 2,456 $ 5,758 268% 74% 99%4,54622,785 68 10,574112,461 2991 135% 2024 Q2 2024 Q2 $ 9,041 $ 49,224 $ 136 $ 23,937 $ 241,940 $ 5,636 $ 18,259 $ 3,905 $ 2,906 $ 6,811 268% 74% 115%4,54622,881 63 11,127112,461 2834 136% 2024 Q3 2024 Q3 $ 9,779 $ 53,832 $ 136 $ 27,366 $ 263,486 $ 5,761 $ 21,546 $ 4,608 $ 3,429 $ 8,037 268% 74% 134%4,54622,977 58 11,680112,461 2678 138% 2024 Q4 2024 Q4 $ 10,650 $ 59,258 $ 136 $ 31,403 $ 288,856 $ 5,919 $ 25,370 $ 5,426 $ 4,037 $ 9,463 268% 74% 157%4,54623,071 53 12,226112,461 2526 139% 2025 Q1 2025 Q1 $ 11,676 $ 65,635 $ 136 $ 36,148 $ 318,670 $ 6,115 $ 29,814 $ 6,377 $ 4,745 $ 11,121 268% 74% 183%4,54623,163 48 12,757112,461 2381 141% 2025 Q2 2025 Q2 $ 12,881 $ 73,116 $ 136 $ 41,714 $ 353,650 $ 6,357 $ 34,980 $ 7,481 $ 5,567 $ 13,048 268% 74% 214%4,54623,251 43 13,265112,461 2243 142% 2025 Q3 2025 Q3 $ 14,295 $ 81,881 $ 136 $ 48,237 $ 394,633 $ 6,651 $ 40,984 $ 8,765 $ 6,522 $ 15,287 268% 74% 251%4,54623,334 39 13,746112,461 2115 143% 2025 Q4 2025 Q4 $ 15,952 $ 92,140 $ 136 $ 55,869 $ 442,596 $ 7,006 $ 47,963 $ 10,258 $ 7,633 $ 17,891 268% 74% 294%4,54623,412 35 14,196112,461 1997 144% 2026 Q1 2026 Q1 $ 17,890 $ 104,133 $ 136 $ 64,794 $ 498,675 $ 7,431 $ 56,078 $ 11,994 $ 8,924 $ 20,918 268% 74% 343%4,54623,484 31 14,612112,461 1888 146% 2026 Q2 2026 Q2 $ 20,157 $ 118,146 $ 136 $ 75,220 $ 564,193 $ 7,937 $ 65,518 $ 14,013 $ 10,426 $ 24,439 268% 74% 402%4,54623,550 27 14,994112,461 1790 147% 2026 Q3 2026 Q3 $ 22,805 $ 134,508 $ 136 $ 87,394 $ 640,694 $ 8,537 $ 76,501 $ 16,362 $ 12,174 $ 28,536 268% 74% 470%4,54623,610 24 15,340112,461 1702 147% 2026 Q4 2026 Q4 $ 25,898 $ 153,603 $ 136 $ 101,603 $ 729,977 $ 9,246 $ 89,283 $ 19,095 $ 14,208 $ 33,304 268% 74% 549%4,54623,664 21 15,653112,461 1623 148% 2027 Q1 2027 Q1 $ 29,507 $ 175,881 $ 136 $ 118,179 $ 834,139 $ 10,079 $ 104,163 $ 22,278 $ 16,576 $ 38,854 268% 74% 642%4,54623,713 18 15,933112,461 1553 149% 2027 Q2 2027 Q2 $ 33,717 $ 201,864 $ 136 $ 137,512 $ 955,628 $ 11,059 $ 121,488 $ 25,983 $ 19,334 $ 45,317 268% 74% 750%4,54623,756 16 16,183112,461 1491 150% 2027 Q3 2027 Q3 $ 38,628 $ 232,163 $ 136 $ 160,057 $ 1,097,293 $ 12,206 $ 141,665 $ 30,299 $ 22,544 $ 52,843 268% 74% 876%4,54623,794 14 16,404112,461 1436 150% 2027 Q4 2027 Q4 $ 44,354 $ 267,488 $ 136 $ 186,341 $ 1,262,459 $ 13,549 $ 165,166 $ 35,325 $ 26,284 $ 61,609 268% 74% 1023%4,54623,828 12 16,599112,461 1389 151% 2028 Q1 2028 Q1 $ 51,030 $ 308,667 $ 136 $ 216,982 $ 1,454,999 $ 15,120 $ 192,541 $ 41,180 $ 30,641 $ 71,820 268% 74% 1194%4,54623,858 11 16,771112,461 1347 151% 2028 Q2 2028 Q2 $ 58,813 $ 356,668 $ 136 $ 252,698 $ 1,679,431 $ 16,955 $ 224,432 $ 48,000 $ 35,716 $ 83,716 268% 74% 1393%4,54623,884 9 16,922112,461 1310 152% 2028 Q3 2028 Q3 $ 67,885 $ 412,614 $ 136 $ 294,326 $ 1,941,017 $ 19,097 $ 261,586 $ 55,947 $ 41,628 $ 97,575 268% 74% 1626%4,54623,907 8 17,053112,461 1279 152% 2028 Q4 2028 Q4 $ 78,458 $ 477,820 $ 136 $ 342,844 $ 2,245,892 $ 21,597 $ 304,875 $ 65,205 $ 48,517 $ 113,723 268% 74% 1897%4,54623,926 7 17,168112,461 1251 152% 2029 Q1 2029 Q1 $ 90,782 $ 553,813 $ 136 $ 399,388 $ 2,601,207 $ 24,513 $ 355,314 $ 75,993 $ 56,544 $ 132,537 268% 74% 2213%4,54623,944 6 17,267112,461 1227 153% 2029 Q2 2029 Q2 $ 105,144 $ 642,375 $ 136 $ 465,285 $ 3,015,292 $ 27,914 $ 414,085 $ 88,563 $ 65,897 $ 154,460 268% 74% 2581%4,54623,959 5 17,354112,461 1207 153% 2029 Q3 2029 Q3 $ 121,882 $ 745,584 $ 136 $ 542,080 $ 3,497,859 $ 31,880 $ 482,567 $ 103,209 $ 76,795 $ 180,004 268% 74% 3010%4,54623,972 4 17,429112,461 1189 153% 2029 Q4 2029 Q4 $ 141,388 $ 865,860 $ 136 $ 631,574 $ 4,060,224 $ 36,503 $ 562,365 $ 120,276 $ 89,494 $ 209,770 268% 74% 3510%4,54623,983 4 17,493112,461 1174 153% 2030 Q1 2030 Q1 $ 164,119 $ 1,006,023 $ 136 $ 735,865 $ 4,715,574 $ 41,892 $ 655,350 $ 140,163 $ 104,292 $ 244,455 268% 74% 4093%4,54623,993 3 17,550112,461 1160 153% 2030 Q2 2030 Q2 $ 190,609 $ 1,169,360 $ 136 $ 857,400 $ 5,479,277 $ 48,173 $ 763,703 $ 163,337 $ 121,535 $ 284,872 268% 74% 4772%4,54624,001 3 17,598112,461 1149 153% 2030 Q3 2030 Q3 $ 221,479 $ 1,359,702 $ 136 $ 999,028 $ 6,369,242 $ 55,495 $ 889,965 $ 190,341 $ 141,628 $ 331,969 268% 74% 5564%4,54624,008 2 17,640112,461 1139 153% 2030 Q4 2030 Q4 $ 257,453 $ 1,581,511 $ 136 $ 1,164,070 $ 7,406,338 $ 64,027 $ 1,037,096 $ 221,809 $ 165,042 $ 386,851 268% 74% 6486%4,54624,014 2 17,676112,461 1131 154% 2031 Q1 2031 Q1 $ 299,373 $ 1,839,989 $ 136 $ 1,356,397 $ 8,614,885 $ 73,971 $ 1,208,547 $ 258,478 $ 192,327 $ 450,805 268% 74% 7560%4,54624,020 2 17,707112,461 1123 154% 2031 Q2 2031 Q2 $ 348,224 $ 2,141,197 $ 136 $ 1,580,518 $ 10,023,223 $ 85,560 $ 1,408,338 $ 301,208 $ 224,121 $ 525,330 268% 74% 8813%4,54624,024 2 17,733112,461 1117 154% 2031 Q3 2031 Q3 $ 405,151 $ 2,492,200 $ 136 $ 1,841,689 $ 11,664,377 $ 99,065 $ 1,641,154 $ 351,002 $ 261,171 $ 612,173 268% 74%10272%4,54624,028 1 17,756112,461 1112 154% EXCEL CALCULATION TABLE FOR AUSTERITY CASE TUNING PARAMETERS C_TP 50% C_MTP 20% TV_TP 147% C_GMIN 5% C_NGDP 2% NUMERICAL RESULTS Year Quarter Time GDP TD TGA BS TW TP ∆ TW TDS ∆ BS TIC TV_TW TV_BS AINR GDP' TD' TGA' BS' TW' TP' M_TP' TD/GDP 2018Q3 2018 Q3 $ 5,188 $ 21,516 $ 368 $ 4,175 $ 108,000 104% 2018Q4 2018 Q4 $ 5,283 $ 21,974 $ 380 $ 4,058 $ 104,330 $ 5,118 $ (3,670)$ 446 $ (117)$ 329 5,28321,974 380 4,058 104,3305,118 104% 2019Q1 2019 Q1 $ 5,117 $ 22,028 $ 310 $ 3,969 $ 110,113 $ 5,100 $ 5,782$ 124 $ (89)$ 35 5,11722,028 310 3,969 110,1135,100 108% 2019Q2 2019 Q2 $ 5,345 $ 22,023 $ 245 $ 3,813 $ 112,461 $ 5,393 $ 2,348$ 6 0 $ (156)$ (96) 0%5,34522,023 245 3,813 112,4615,393 103% 2019Q3 2019 Q3 $ 5,398 $ 22,719 $ 335 $ 3,946 $ 113,171 $ 5,028 $ 710$ 606 $ 133 $ 739 96% 22% 1%5,36422,577 333 3,921 112,4614,997 5353 105% 2019Q4 2019 Q4 $ 5,513 $ 23,201 $ 383 $ 4,174 $ 116,814 $ 5,182 $ 3,643$ 434 $ 228 $ 662 311% 35% 4%5,30822,337 369 4,018 112,4614,989 5160 105% 2020Q1 2020 Q1 $ 5,224 $ 23,687 $ 429 $ 5,812 $ 110,586 $ 4,185 $ (6,228)$ 439 $ 1,638 $ 2,077 -54% 135% -2%5,31324,089 436 5,911 112,4614,256 5502 113% 2020Q2 2020 Q2 $ 4,877 $ 26,477 $ 1,658 $ 7,009 $ 118,585 $ 3,498 $ 7,999 $ 1,561 $ 1,197 $ 2,758 98% 105% 5%4,62525,1101,572 6,647 112,4613,317 5072 136% 2020Q3 2020 Q3 $ 5,302 $ 26,945 $ 1,697 $ 7,075 $ 122,911 $ 5,054 $ 4,326$ 429 $ 66 $ 495 155% 94% 9%4,85124,6551,553 6,474 112,4614,625 4873 127%
  • 14. 2020Q4 2020 Q4 $ 5,490 $ 27,748 $ 1,669 $ 7,335 $ 130,916 $ 4,945 $ 8,006$ 830 $ 260 $ 1,090 236% 82% 16%4,71623,8361,434 6,301 112,4614,248 4552 126% 2021Q1 2021 Q1 $ 5,368 $ 28,133 $ 1,010 $ 7,709 $ 136,206 $ 4,659 $ 5,290 $ 1,044 $ 374 $ 1,418 257% 73% 21%4,43223,228 834 6,365 112,4613,847 4369 131% 2021Q2 2021 Q2 $ 5,712 $ 28,529 $ 753 $ 8,098 $ 142,347 $ 5,191 $ 6,141$ 654 $ 389 $ 1,043 291% 71% 27%4,51322,540 595 6,398 112,4614,101 4178 125% 2021Q3 2021 Q3 $ 5,819 $ 28,429 $ 136 $ 8,464 $ 144,709 $ 5,378 $ 2,362$ 516 $ 366 $ 882 289% 71% 29%4,52222,094 106 6,578 112,461 4179 4111 122% $ 5,819 $ 28,429 $ 136 $ 8,464 $ 144,709 268% 74% 29%4,546 112,461 4179 4111 122% 2021Q4 2021 Q4 $ 5,918 $ 29,595 $ 136 $ 9,332 $ 150,163 $ 4,901 $ 5,453 $ 1,166 $ 868 $ 2,034 268% 74% 34%4,43222,165 102 6,989 112,461 3809 125% 2022Q1 2022 Q1 $ 6,019 $ 30,871 $ 136 $ 10,281 $ 156,129 $ 4,906 $ 5,967 $ 1,276 $ 950 $ 2,226 268% 74% 39%4,33622,237 98 7,406 112,461 3675 128% 2022Q2 2022 Q2 $ 6,122 $ 32,253 $ 136 $ 11,310 $ 162,592 $ 4,917 $ 6,462 $ 1,382 $ 1,028 $ 2,411 268% 74% 45%4,23422,309 94 7,823 112,461 3541 132% 2022Q3 2022 Q3 $ 6,226 $ 33,737 $ 136 $ 12,414 $ 169,530 $ 4,932 $ 6,939 $ 1,484 $ 1,104 $ 2,588 268% 74% 51%4,13022,380 90 8,235 112,461 3412 135% 2022Q4 2022 Q4 $ 6,333 $ 35,319 $ 136 $ 13,591 $ 176,924 $ 4,953 $ 7,394 $ 1,581 $ 1,177 $ 2,758 268% 74% 57%4,02522,450 86 8,639 112,461 3286 139% 2023Q1 2023 Q1 $ 6,441 $ 36,993 $ 136 $ 14,836 $ 184,753 $ 4,981 $ 7,828 $ 1,674 $ 1,246 $ 2,920 268% 74% 64%3,92022,518 83 9,031 112,461 3166 144% 2023Q2 2023 Q2 $ 6,550 $ 38,756 $ 136 $ 16,148 $ 192,994 $ 5,013 $ 8,241 $ 1,763 $ 1,312 $ 3,074 268% 74% 72%3,81722,584 79 9,410 112,461 3052 148% 2023Q3 2023 Q3 $ 6,662 $ 40,602 $ 136 $ 17,522 $ 201,628 $ 5,052 $ 8,634 $ 1,847 $ 1,374 $ 3,221 268% 74% 79%3,71622,647 76 9,773 112,461 2944 152% 2023Q4 2023 Q4 $ 6,776 $ 42,529 $ 136 $ 18,955 $ 210,635 $ 5,096 $ 9,007 $ 1,926 $ 1,433 $ 3,360 268% 74% 87%3,61822,707 73 10,121112,461 2842 157% 2024Q1 2024 Q1 $ 6,891 $ 44,531 $ 136 $ 20,445 $ 219,996 $ 5,145 $ 9,362 $ 2,002 $ 1,490 $ 3,492 268% 74% 96%3,52322,764 70 10,451112,461 2747 162% 2024Q2 2024 Q2 $ 7,009 $ 46,605 $ 136 $ 21,989 $ 229,696 $ 5,200 $ 9,700 $ 2,074 $ 1,544 $ 3,618 268% 74%104%3,43222,818 67 10,766112,461 2658 166% 2024Q3 2024 Q3 $ 7,129 $ 48,749 $ 136 $ 23,584 $ 239,718 $ 5,259 $ 10,022 $ 2,143 $ 1,595 $ 3,738 268% 74%113%3,34422,870 64 11,064112,461 2575 171% 2024Q4 2024 Q4 $ 7,250 $ 50,958 $ 136 $ 25,227 $ 250,048 $ 5,323 $ 10,330 $ 2,209 $ 1,644 $ 3,853 268% 74%122%3,26122,919 61 11,346112,461 2497 176% 2025Q1 2025 Q1 $ 7,374 $ 53,231 $ 136 $ 26,918 $ 260,674 $ 5,392 $ 10,626 $ 2,273 $ 1,691 $ 3,964 268% 74%132%3,18122,965 59 11,613112,461 2425 180% 2025Q2 2025 Q2 $ 7,500 $ 55,564 $ 136 $ 28,655 $ 271,585 $ 5,465 $ 10,911 $ 2,334 $ 1,736 $ 4,070 268% 74%141%3,10623,009 56 11,866112,461 2358 185% 2025Q3 2025 Q3 $ 7,628 $ 57,957 $ 136 $ 30,435 $ 282,770 $ 5,541 $ 11,185 $ 2,392 $ 1,780 $ 4,172 268% 74%151%3,03423,050 54 12,104112,461 2295 190% 2025Q4 2025 Q4 $ 7,758 $ 60,406 $ 136 $ 32,257 $ 294,221 $ 5,622 $ 11,451 $ 2,449 $ 1,822 $ 4,272 268% 74%162%2,96523,089 52 12,330112,461 2236 195% 2026Q1 2026 Q1 $ 7,890 $ 62,910 $ 136 $ 34,121 $ 305,931 $ 5,706 $ 11,710 $ 2,504 $ 1,864 $ 4,368 268% 74%172%2,90023,126 50 12,543112,461 2181 199% 2026Q2 2026 Q2 $ 8,025 $ 65,469 $ 136 $ 36,024 $ 317,893 $ 5,794 $ 11,962 $ 2,558 $ 1,904 $ 4,462 268% 74%183%2,83923,161 48 12,744112,461 2130 204% 2026Q3 2026 Q3 $ 8,161 $ 68,080 $ 136 $ 37,967 $ 330,102 $ 5,884 $ 12,209 $ 2,611 $ 1,943 $ 4,554 268% 74%194%2,78023,194 46 12,935112,461 2082 209% 2026Q4 2026 Q4 $ 8,301 $ 70,743 $ 136 $ 39,949 $ 342,554 $ 5,978 $ 12,451 $ 2,663 $ 1,981 $ 4,644 268% 74%205%2,72523,225 45 13,115112,461 2037 213% 2027Q1 2027 Q1 $ 8,442 $ 73,457 $ 136 $ 41,968 $ 355,243 $ 6,076 $ 12,690 $ 2,714 $ 2,019 $ 4,734 268% 74%216%2,67323,255 43 13,286112,461 1995 218% 2027Q2 2027 Q2 $ 8,586 $ 76,221 $ 136 $ 44,025 $ 368,169 $ 6,176 $ 12,926 $ 2,765 $ 2,057 $ 4,821 268% 74%227%2,62323,283 42 13,448112,461 1955 222% 2027Q3 2027 Q3 $ 8,733 $ 79,036 $ 136 $ 46,119 $ 381,329 $ 6,278 $ 13,159 $ 2,814 $ 2,094 $ 4,909 268% 74%239%2,57523,309 40 13,601112,461 1918 226% 2027Q4 2027 Q4 $ 8,882 $ 81,900 $ 136 $ 48,250 $ 394,720 $ 6,384 $ 13,392 $ 2,864 $ 2,131 $ 4,995 268% 74%251%2,53123,334 39 13,747112,461 1883 231% 2028Q1 2028 Q1 $ 9,033 $ 84,814 $ 136 $ 50,418 $ 408,343 $ 6,492 $ 13,623 $ 2,914 $ 2,168 $ 5,081 268% 74%263%2,48823,358 37 13,886112,461 1850 235% 2028Q2 2028 Q2 $ 9,187 $ 87,777 $ 136 $ 52,623 $ 422,197 $ 6,604 $ 13,854 $ 2,963 $ 2,205 $ 5,168 268% 74%275%2,44723,381 36 14,017112,461 1819 239% 2028Q3 2028 Q3 $ 9,344 $ 90,789 $ 136 $ 54,864 $ 436,281 $ 6,717 $ 14,085 $ 3,012 $ 2,241 $ 5,254 268% 74%288%2,40923,403 35 14,142112,461 1789 243% 2028Q4 2028 Q4 $ 9,503 $ 93,851 $ 136 $ 57,143 $ 450,597 $ 6,833 $ 14,316 $ 3,062 $ 2,278 $ 5,340 268% 74%301%2,37223,423 34 14,262112,461 1761 247% 2029Q1 2029 Q1 $ 9,666 $ 96,962 $ 136 $ 59,458 $ 465,146 $ 6,952 $ 14,549 $ 3,112 $ 2,315 $ 5,427 268% 74%314%2,33723,443 33 14,375112,461 1735 251% 2029Q2 2029 Q2 $ 9,830 $ 100,124 $ 136 $ 61,810 $ 479,929 $ 7,073 $ 14,783 $ 3,162 $ 2,352 $ 5,514 268% 74%327%2,30423,462 32 14,484112,461 1710 255% 2029Q3 2029 Q3 $ 9,998 $ 103,336 $ 136 $ 64,200 $ 494,947 $ 7,197 $ 15,018 $ 3,212 $ 2,390 $ 5,602 268% 74%340%2,27223,480 31 14,587112,461 1686 258% 2029Q4 2029 Q4 $ 10,169 $ 106,599 $ 136 $ 66,628 $ 510,203 $ 7,323 $ 15,256 $ 3,263 $ 2,428 $ 5,691 268% 74%354%2,24123,497 30 14,686112,461 1664 262% 2030Q1 2030 Q1 $ 10,342 $ 109,913 $ 136 $ 69,094 $ 525,699 $ 7,452 $ 15,496 $ 3,314 $ 2,466 $ 5,780 268% 74%367%2,21223,513 29 14,781112,461 1643 266% 2030Q2 2030 Q2 $ 10,519 $ 113,279 $ 136 $ 71,599 $ 541,437 $ 7,583 $ 15,739 $ 3,366 $ 2,505 $ 5,871 268% 74%381%2,18523,529 28 14,872112,461 1622 269% 2030Q3 2030 Q3 $ 10,698 $ 116,698 $ 136 $ 74,142 $ 557,422 $ 7,717 $ 15,984 $ 3,419 $ 2,544 $ 5,962 268% 74%396%2,15823,544 27 14,958112,461 1603 273% 2030Q4 2030 Q4 $ 10,880 $ 120,170 $ 136 $ 76,726 $ 573,655 $ 7,853 $ 16,233 $ 3,472 $ 2,583 $ 6,055 268% 74%410%2,13323,558 27 15,042112,461 1584 276% 2031Q1 2031 Q1 $ 11,066 $ 123,695 $ 136 $ 79,349 $ 590,140 $ 7,991 $ 16,485 $ 3,526 $ 2,623 $ 6,149 268% 74%425%2,10923,572 26 15,121112,461 1567 279% 2031Q2 2031 Q2 $ 11,255 $ 127,276 $ 136 $ 82,013 $ 606,881 $ 8,133 $ 16,741 $ 3,581 $ 2,664 $ 6,245 268% 74%440%2,08623,585 25 15,198112,461 1550 283% 2031Q3 2031 Q3 $ 11,447 $ 130,912 $ 136 $ 84,719 $ 623,882 $ 8,276 $ 17,001 $ 3,636 $ 2,705 $ 6,342 268% 74%455%2,06323,598 25 15,271112,461 1534 286%