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Prediction Markets and Competitive Intelligence
- 1. Prediction Markets And CI Tom Davis 1
- 5. Ever Traded? 5
- 6. Conference Summary 6
- 7. CI Geek 7
- 8. Text Analyzer 8
- 9. The Buzz 9
- 10. >5,000 Words 10
- 11. Conference Summary 11
- 12. Learn 81 12
- 13. Competitive 77 13
- 14. Intelligence 97 14
- 15. Strat* 38 15
- 16. Tactic* 6 16
- 17. Information 37 17
- 18. Understand 31 18
- 19. Analy* 29 19
- 20. Research 27 20
- 21. Collect* 8 21
- 22. Value 19 22
- 23. Innovation 22 23
- 24. Techniques 21 24
- 25. Not As Strong 25
- 26. Communicat* 14 26
- 27. Predict* 10 27
- 28. Future* 10 28
- 29. People 6 29
- 30. Early Warning 14 30
- 31. Conclude 31
- 32. Wisdom 0 32
- 33. Crowds 0 33
- 34. Good News 34
- 35. Social 14 35
- 36. Social Network* 14 36
- 37. People 6 37
- 38. lg ia in ck or So y w uzz t eB Ns I 38
- 39. 39
- 40. Themes 40
- 41. <1> Prediction Markets Accelerating 41
- 42. <2> Prediction Markets Are Perfect For CI 42
- 43. <3> Market Design Key 43
- 44. <4> Great Prediction Markets = Great Social Networks 44
- 45. Disclaimer 45
- 46. 46
- 47. 47
- 48. Market Design 48
- 49. Tacit Information 49
- 50. 50
- 52. <introduction> 52
- 53. Prediction Market Is? 53
- 54. “Information Markets” 54
- 55. “Idea Futures” 55
- 56. “Event Futures” 56
- 57. Markets Are Designed 57
- 58. Information Aggregation 58
- 59. What Does That Mean? 59
- 60. Prediction Markets 60
- 61. Convenient Way 61
- 62. Ask Organization 62
- 63. A Question 63
- 64. Get A Good Answer 64
- 65. 65
- 66. 1+1+1+...N = ? 66
- 67. 67
- 68. 1.) Independent 68
- 69. 2.) Diverse 69
- 70. 3.)Decentralized 70
- 71. Average Guess 3‐5% Actual Beans 71
- 72. 72
- 73. More Accurate 73
- 74. 1+1+1+...N = ? 74
- 75. The Wisdom of Crowds 75
- 76. 76
- 77. 77
- 78. 78
- 79. New York, 2007 79
- 80. 1974 Nobel Prize 80
- 81. Famous Economist 81
- 82. Hayek 82
- 83. Friedrich von Hayek 1899 ‐ 1992 83
- 85. Ability Of Prices To Aggregate Knowledge 85
- 86. Tacit Information 86
- 87. 87
- 89. Fast Forward 89
- 90. Web 2.0 90
- 91. 91
- 92. Internet + Prediction Markets 92
- 93. Vendors 93
- 94. </introduction> 94
- 95. Theme #1 95
- 96. <1> Prediction Markets Accelerating 96
- 97. ProQuest Articles 200 150 100 50 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 97
- 99. Source: Cowgill, et al. Using Prediction Markets To Track Information Flows, Jan. 2008. (http://bpp.wharton.upenn.edu/jwolfers/index.shtml) 99
- 100. Prof. Andrew McAfee 100
- 101. 101
- 102. 102
- 103. 103
- 104. Uses? 104
- 105. Financial Forecasting 105
- 106. Project Management 106
- 107. Market Research 107
- 108. Real Time Competitive Intelligence 108
- 109. Examples? 109
- 110. 110
- 111. 111
- 112. 112
- 113. 113
- 114. 114
- 115. 115
- 116. 116
- 117. 117
- 118. 118
- 119. You Prefer? You Like? 119
- 120. What Is Going To Happen? 120
- 121. Prediction Markets Accelerating </1> 121
- 122. Theme #2 122
- 123. <2> Prediction Markets Are Perfect For CI 123
- 124. ? 124
- 125. 2 Kinds Prediction Markets 125
- 126. ‐1‐ Aggregate Primarily Internal Information 126
- 127. ‐2‐ Aggregate Primarily External Information 127
- 128. Internally Focused Markets 128
- 129. debate: TMI 129
- 130. “too much information” 130
- 131. 131
- 132. CI Outwardly Focused 132
- 134. Tacit Information 134
- 135. 135
- 136. Normalize Into Price Or Probability 136
- 137. Common CI Uses 137
- 138. Forecast Competitor Metrics 138
- 139. Industry M&A Activity 139
- 140. Forecast Trade Association Metrics 140
- 141. Forecast Patent & IP Activity 141
- 142. Forecast Regulatory Actions 142
- 143. Raise Awareness Of Competition 143
- 144. ABCs Why Work? 144
- 145. <A> Accurate 145
- 146. <A> Anonymous = Speak True Mind 146
- 147. <B> Bias Corrected = Equal Voice 147
- 148. <C> Consensus Building = Credible, Impartial Observer 148
- 149. <D> Incentives To Discover 149
- 150. <E> Expensive = Metrics ROI 150
- 151. <F> Fast Set‐Up 151
- 153. Summarize 153
- 154. Market Design 154
- 155. Tacit Information 155
- 156. 156
- 157. “We Know More Than We Can Tell” 157
- 158. Prediction Markets Are Perfect For CI </2> 158
- 159. Theme #3 159
- 160. <3> Market Design Key 160
- 161. ? 161
- 162. You Can Design Better Markets 162
- 163. Lessons Learned 163
- 164. Single Regulator 164
- 165. 165
- 166. 166
- 167. 167
- 168. 168
- 169. 169
- 170. Leverage 170
- 171. 171
- 172. Market Failure 172
- 173. Ex‐Meltdown 173
- 174. Market Mechanisms 174
- 175. 175
- 176. 176
- 177. Market Failure 177
- 178. Not Hard 178
- 179. Design Right 179
- 180. Concerns? 180
- 181. <i> 181
- 182. Self‐Fulfilling Prophecy 182
- 183. <ii> 183
- 184. Manipulation 184
- 185. <i> Self‐Fulfilling Prophecy? 185
- 186. Market Reality 186
- 187. Pro‐Cyclical Feedback Loop 187
- 188. Distorts Outcome 188
- 189. Mis‐application 189
- 190. No Clear 190
- 191. Event Or Measure 191
- 192. Outcome Poorly Defined </i> 192
- 193. <ii> Market Manipulation? 193
- 194. 2 Varieties 194
- 195. ‐1‐ Price Manipulation 195
- 196. ‐2‐ Outcome Manipulation 196
- 197. ‐1‐ Price Manipulation? 197
- 198. Distorted Price Action 198
- 199. Price Reality Time 199
- 200. Intentional Losses To Deceive 200
- 201. Not Sustainable, Adds Liquidity 201
- 202. Good Design Price Manipulation 202
- 203. ‐2‐ Outcome Manipulation? 203
- 204. Outcome Changeable 204
- 205. Small Group 205
- 206. Traders Or Non‐Traders 206
- 207. Price Reality Time 207
- 208. E.g. 208
- 209. Vice President? 209
- 210. Good Design Outcome Manipulation 210
- 211. Summarize 211
- 213. Possible To Manipulate 213
- 214. Adds To Liquidity 214
- 215. Poor Excuse 215
- 216. All Forecasting Systems 216
- 217. Manipulable 217
- 218. Error 218
- 219. Bias 219
- 220. 220
- 221. Summarize 221
- 222. Market Mechanisms 222
- 223. 223
- 224. 224
- 225. Market Failures 225
- 226. Not Hard 226
- 227. Design Right 227
- 228. Market Design Key </3> 228
- 229. Theme #4 229
- 230. <4> Great Prediction Markets = Great Social Networks 230
- 231. ‐1‐ Social Media => Fresh Activity 231
- 233. ‐2‐ Social Media => Ask For Engagement 233
- 234. ‐2‐ Prediction Markets => Traders Suggest New Markets 234
- 235. ‐3‐ Social Media => KISS 235
- 236. ‐3‐ Prediction Markets => KISS 236
- 238. ‐4‐ Prediction Markets => Know Your Trading Community 238
- 239. ‐5‐ Social Media => What’s Happening Now 239
- 242. ‐6‐ Prediction Markets => User Interface Increases Trading 242
- 243. ‐7‐ And on and on... 243
- 244. The Future? 244
- 245. et rk a M 245
- 246. et rk Is a M dy ea lr A 246
- 247. Great Prediction Markets = Great Social Networks </4> 247
- 248. Summarize 248
- 249. 249
- 250. 250
- 251. Market Design 251
- 252. Tacit Information 252
- 253. 253
- 254. “We Know More Than We Can Tell” 254
- 255. Ability Of Prices To Aggregate Knowledge 255
- 256. 256
- 257. Prediction Markets And CI With thanks to Lawrence Lessig and Dick Hardt For Presentation Inspiration Tom Davis 257