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black swan.pdf

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Mohammed Awad
Mohammed Awad

Back to norms, is an article that address the event of Black Swan, which is a very hard situation for airline industry, but it shows that there is some light at the end of the tunnel. that may recover soon.

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8 ‫ا‬ ً‫الطبٍع‬ ‫الوضع‬ ‫الى‬ ‫لعودة‬ Back To Norms ‫ع‬ٛ‫ع‬ ٌُ‫عب‬ ‫ِؾّذ‬ : ‫اعذاد‬ ‫الوقذهت‬ ‫عزجش‬٠ ‫ػع‬ٚ ‫األ٘ذاف‬ ‫ؾ‬١‫اٌزخط‬ٚ ‫ب‬ٙ‫م‬١‫ٌزؾم‬ ٜ‫إؽذ‬ ‫بد‬٠‫اٌزؾذ‬ ٜ‫اٌىجش‬ ‫ٌششوبد‬ ْ‫شا‬١‫اٌط‬ . ْٚ‫فجذ‬ ‫لبعذح‬ ‫اؽظبء‬ ٓ‫ّى‬٠ ‫ال‬ ‫لشاس‬ ‫زخز‬٠ ْ‫ا‬ ٟ‫فف‬ ‫لذ‬ٌٛ‫ا‬ ٓ٘‫اٌشا‬ َٛ‫رم‬ ‫ذ‬٠‫اٌعذ‬ ِٓ ‫ششوبد‬ ْ‫شا‬١‫اٌط‬ ‫ثئطذاس‬ ‫ش‬٠‫رمبس‬ ‫خ‬١‫إؽظبئ‬ ‫رؾذد‬ٚ ‫أ٘ذافب‬ ‫ِخزٍفخ‬ ‫شح‬١‫ِزغ‬ٚ ‫اعزّبدا‬ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ُٙ‫ٔظشر‬ ٍُٙ١ٍ‫رؾ‬ٚ ‫ق‬ٛ‫ٌغ‬ ْ‫شا‬١‫اٌط‬ ‫خ‬١ٌّ‫اٌعب‬ ٚ ٜ‫اٌّذ‬ ‫ذح‬١‫ثع‬ ‫ب‬ِٕٙٚ ٜ‫اٌّذ‬ ‫شح‬١‫لظ‬ ‫ب‬ِٕٙ ‫ثبٌطجع‬ – ‫ٕ٘بن‬ ‫ششوبد‬ ‫ِٕظّبد‬ٚ ْ‫شا‬١‫ؽ‬ ‫فخ‬ٚ‫ِعش‬ ًّ‫رع‬ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ‫إطذاس‬ ً‫ِض‬ ٖ‫٘ز‬ ‫الد‬١ٍ‫اٌزؾ‬ ‫اٌزٕجؤاد‬ٚ ٟ‫ف‬ ٌُ‫عب‬ ْ‫شا‬١‫اٌط‬ ‫وبالرؾبد‬ ٌٟٚ‫اٌذ‬ ٞٛ‫اٌغ‬ ً‫ٌٍٕم‬ IATA ٟ‫ششوز‬ٚ ‫ٕظ‬٠ٛ‫اٌج‬ ،‫شثبص‬٠‫اإل‬ٚ ‫ِٕظّخ‬ٚ ْ‫شا‬١‫اٌط‬ ٟٔ‫اٌّذ‬ ‫خ‬١ٌّ‫اٌعب‬ ) ٚ‫ىب‬٠‫ا‬ - (ICAO ، ‫اٌّغٍظ‬ٚ ٌّٟ‫اٌعب‬ ‫ٌٍّطبساد‬ ( (ACI ‫ذ‬٠‫اٌعذ‬ٚ ِٓ ‫ششوبد‬ ْ‫شا‬١‫اٌط‬ ،‫خ‬١ٌّ‫اٌعب‬ ٓ‫ٌى‬ٚ ‫اٌّعؼٍخ‬ ّٓ‫رى‬ ٟ‫ف‬ َ‫عذ‬ ‫د‬ٛ‫ع‬ٚ ‫أعظ‬ ‫اػؾخ‬ٚ ٓ١ٍٍ‫ٌٍّؾ‬ ‫خبطخ‬ٚ ‫ثبٌٕغجخ‬ ‫ٌٍششوبد‬ ،‫اٌّظٕعخ‬ ‫ش‬١‫ؽ‬ ‫رؼع‬ ً‫و‬ ‫ششوخ‬ ‫بد‬١‫اٌفشػ‬ ‫ؽشق‬ٚ ً١ٍ‫اٌزؾ‬ ‫اٌخبطخ‬ ‫ب‬ٙ‫ث‬ ‫ِّب‬ ٞ‫ؤد‬٠ ‫رٌه‬ ٌٝ‫إ‬ ‫ي‬ٛ‫اٌؾظ‬ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ‫ٔزبئظ‬ ‫ِخزٍفخ‬ ً‫ِض‬ ‫اٌطبئشاد‬ ‫طٕبعخ‬ ‫ششوبد‬ ً‫ِض‬ ‫ششوخ‬ ٚ ‫ٕظ‬٠ٛ‫اٌج‬ ‫عخ‬ّٛ‫ِغ‬ ‫شثبص‬٠‫اال‬ . ‫ف‬ ‫ٕبن‬ٙ ‫ؼب‬٠‫أ‬ ‫ذ‬٠‫اٌعذ‬ ِٓ ‫اٌّؤششاد‬ ‫الخزجبس‬ ‫دلخ‬ ‫ٔزبئظ‬ ،‫اٌزٕجؤاد‬ ‫ٔزوش‬ ‫ب‬ِٕٙ ‫بط‬١‫ل‬ ًِ‫عب‬ ً‫اٌزفبػ‬ / ‫االؽزغبة‬ Coefficient of Determination ٚ ُ‫ثبٌشغ‬ ِٓ ْ‫أ‬ ٗ‫اؽزغبث‬ ٖ‫ؽذ‬ٚ ‫ال‬ ٟ‫ىف‬٠ ‫ي‬ٛ‫ٌٍؾظ‬ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ‫ٔزبئظ‬ ‫خ‬١‫بع‬١‫ل‬ ‫خ‬١‫ِشػ‬ ٚ‫أ‬ ‫ي‬ٛ‫اٌؾظ‬ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ‫سح‬ٛ‫اٌظ‬ ‫اٌىبٍِخ‬ ‫إال‬ ٗٔ‫أ‬ ‫غبٌجب‬ ‫ِب‬ َ‫غزخذ‬٠ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ‫ٔطبق‬ ‫اعع‬ٚ ٟ‫ف‬ ٌُ‫عب‬ ْ‫شا‬١‫اٌط‬ ‫وّؤشش‬ ‫ذ‬١‫ع‬ ً١ٍ‫ٌٍزؾ‬ . ٚ ٟ‫ف‬ ٖ‫٘ز‬ ،‫اٌّمبٌخ‬ ‫ٕٔبلش‬ ‫فىشح‬ ‫ذح‬٠‫عذ‬ ‫ٌٍزٕجؤ‬ َ‫ثبعزخذا‬ ٍِٟ‫عب‬ ‫ص‬ٛ‫فؾ‬ ‫خ‬١‫إؽظبئ‬ – ‫الؽزغبة‬ ٍِٟ‫عب‬ ‫اإلصاؽخ‬ ْ‫سا‬ٚ‫اٌذ‬ٚ ‫اٌّشرجطخ‬ ‫رط‬ٌّٕٛ‫ثب‬ ‫ش‬١‫ؽ‬ ‫غزخذِب‬٠ ‫وأداح‬ ‫ِغؼ‬ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ٞ‫س‬ٛ‫ِؾ‬ x,y . ‫ال‬ ‫عالن‬ ‫تٌبؤاث‬ ‫الطائراث‬ ‫لصٌاع‬ ‫ب‬ِٙٛٙ‫ِف‬ ‫طبٔعخ‬ ‫ششوخ‬ ً‫ٌى‬ ، ْ‫شا‬١‫اٌط‬ ٌُ‫عب‬ ‫طٕبعخ‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ثطٍت‬ ‫ٌزٕجؤ‬ ‫خ‬١ٍّ‫ٌع‬ ‫ٌخبص‬ ‫ا‬ .‫ب‬ٙ‫فٍغفز‬ٚ ‫ب‬ٙ‫بر‬١‫غ‬١‫اعزشار‬ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ‫ثٕبء‬ ّٗ١١‫رم‬ٚ ‫ٌشوبة‬ ‫ع‬ّٛ‫ِغ‬ ‫فٍغفخ‬ ‫رغزٕذ‬ٚ ‫خ‬ ‫ض‬١‫اٌزشو‬ٚ ‫ذ‬١‫ؽ‬ٛ‫اٌز‬ ‫ِجذا‬ ٌٝ‫إ‬ ‫شثبص‬٠‫اال‬ (Hub To Hub) ."‫س‬ٛ‫اٌّؾ‬ ٌٝ‫إ‬ ‫س‬ٛ‫"اٌّؾ‬ ‫ثطشاص‬ ُٙ‫خذِز‬ٚ ‫ٌٍشوبة‬ ً‫بئ‬ٌٙ‫ا‬ ‫ع‬١ّ‫اٌزغ‬ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ‫رغزٕذ‬ ‫فىشح‬ ٟ٘ٚ ‫اؽذ‬ٚ ٌ‫ا‬ٚ ٜ‫اد‬ ٞ‫ز‬ ‫ؽبئشح‬ ‫ع‬١ٕ‫رظ‬ ٌٝ‫إ‬ A380 .‫اٌعّاللخ‬ ‫رغ‬ٚ ‫ـ‬ ‫اٌزغضئخ‬ ‫ِجذأ‬ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ‫ٕظ‬٠ٛ‫اٌج‬ ‫ششوخ‬ ‫فٍغفخ‬ ‫زٕذ‬ (point to point) ٌٝ‫إ‬ ‫ٔمطخ‬ ِٓ" ."‫ٔمطخ‬ ‫ِجذا‬ٚ ‫خذِخ‬ ‫خ‬٠‫اٌّشوض‬ َ‫عذ‬ ٌ‫ا‬ ‫ع‬١ّ‫ع‬ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ‫ّطبساد‬ ‫عذد‬ ‫بدح‬٠‫ص‬ ‫اعبعخ‬ ْ‫وب‬ ٟ‫اٌز‬ٚ ‫عطخ‬ٛ‫ِز‬ َ‫ثأؽغب‬ ‫اٌشؽالد‬ ٞ‫اٌز‬ٚ ‫ا‬ ‫ع‬١ٕ‫رظ‬ ٌٝ‫إ‬ ٜ‫د‬ B787 ُ٠‫دس‬ .‫ٕش‬٠‫ال‬ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ‫ٌٍزٕجؤ‬ ‫٘زا‬ .ً٠ٛ‫اٌط‬ ٜ‫اٌّذ‬ ‫ِظطٍؼ‬ ‫ب‬ّ‫دائ‬ ٗ‫اع‬ٛٔ ‫فئٕٔب‬ ، ‫ش‬١‫اٌمظ‬ ٜ‫اٌّذ‬ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ‫ٌٍزٕجؤ‬ ‫ثبٌٕغجخ‬ ٓ‫ٌى‬ ‫خ‬١ّ‫ع‬ٌّٛ‫ا‬ ‫خ‬١ٍ‫اٌفظ‬ٚ ‫خ‬٠‫س‬ٚ‫اٌذ‬ ‫خ‬٠‫ش‬ٙ‫اٌش‬ٚ ‫خ‬١ٍ‫اٌفظ‬ ‫شاد‬١‫اٌزغ‬ ‫عىظ‬٠ ٛ٘ٚ . ٚ ٓ‫ع‬ ‫ش‬١‫اٌزعج‬ ٓ‫ّى‬٠ ٌ‫ا‬ ‫ك‬١‫ٌزطج‬ ‫خ‬١ٍ‫اٌفع‬ ‫مخ‬٠‫طش‬ ‫رط‬ّٛٔ ‫اٌزٕجؤ‬ ٌ ‫رط‬ّٛٔ ‫خالي‬ ِٓ ْ‫شا‬١‫اٌط‬ ‫ظٕبعخ‬ ARIMA .ّٟ‫ع‬ٌّٛ‫ا‬ ‫خ‬٠ٛ‫اٌغ‬ ‫ؽ‬ٛ‫اٌخط‬ ‫اعزخذِذ‬ ‫لذ‬ٚ ‫خ‬١ّٕ١ٌ‫ا‬ - ‫مخ‬٠‫ؽش‬ ‫ي‬ٚ‫رزٕب‬ ‫ذح‬٠‫عذ‬ ًِ‫ا‬ٛ‫ع‬ ً١ٍ‫ثزم‬ ‫االخطبء‬ ‫ع‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ُ‫رزؾى‬ ٟ‫اٌز‬ٚ ٍِٟ‫ب‬ ‫ػ‬ٚ‫إٌض‬ Displacement ٌ‫ا‬ٚ ْ‫سا‬ٚ‫ذ‬ Rotation .‫ذ‬٠‫اٌغذ‬ ‫رط‬ٌٍّٕٛ ‫العالوٍت‬ ‫الحركت‬ ‫للركاب‬ ً‫ف‬ ‫الطٍراى‬ ‫عالن‬ ‫رط‬ّٛٔ ُ‫زغ‬٠ ‫ا‬ ‫ٌؾشوخ‬ ٌُ‫عب‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫ٌٍشوبة‬ ‫خ‬١ٌّ‫اٌعب‬ ٌٟ‫اٌعب‬ ‫إٌّؤ‬ٚ ‫خ‬١ّ‫ع‬ٌّٛ‫ثب‬ ْ‫شا‬١‫اٌط‬ – ٟ‫ف‬١‫اٌظ‬ ُ‫ع‬ٌّٛ‫ا‬ ٓ١١‫غ‬١‫سئ‬ ٓ١ّ‫ع‬ّٛ‫ث‬ ‫زأصش‬٠ ‫ثبٔخ‬ ‫ٔغذح‬ ‫رط‬ٌّٕٛ‫ا‬ ‫٘زا‬ ‫دساعخ‬ ‫فعٕذ‬ ُ‫ع‬ٌّٛ‫ا‬ٚ ٞٛ‫اٌشز‬ – ‫اٌّذاسط‬ ٌٝ‫ا‬ ‫دح‬ٛ‫اٌع‬ ُ‫ع‬ِٛ ٟ‫بر‬٠ ‫ثعذ٘ب‬ٚ – ‫ذ‬١‫ع‬ ُ‫ع‬ِٛ ‫وزا‬ٚ ‫خ‬١‫بػ‬٠‫اٌش‬ ُ‫اع‬ٌّٛ‫ا‬ ‫وزا‬ٚ ٓ١ٍّ‫اٌّغ‬ ‫عٕذ‬ ‫اٌعّشح‬ٚ ‫اٌؾظ‬ ُ‫ع‬ِٛٚ ٓ١١‫ؾ‬١‫اٌّغ‬ ‫عٕذ‬ ‫الد‬١ٌّ‫ا‬ ‫فبٔخ‬ ‫رٌه‬ ‫ثذساعخ‬ٚ ‫اٌؾشوخ‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫اٌخبص‬ ‫رعخ‬ّٛٔ ‫عفش‬ ‫ِمطع‬ ً‫ٌى‬ٚ ‫ثٍذ‬ ً‫فٍى‬ .‫خ‬٠ٚ‫اٌىش‬ ‫اٌزشغ‬ ‫خ‬١ِٛ١ٌ‫ا‬ ‫ثخططٕب‬ ‫ٕعىظ‬٠ ١ ‫ٌٍّطبساد‬ ‫اوبٔذ‬ ‫خ‬١ٍ ‫ششوبد‬ ٚ‫ا‬ ‫ؾ‬١‫ٌٍزخط‬ ْ‫شا‬١‫اٌط‬ .‫ران‬ ٚ‫ا‬ ‫اٌخؾ‬ ‫٘زا‬ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ‫لعخ‬ٛ‫اٌّز‬ ‫اٌؾشوخ‬ ‫عبة‬١‫العز‬
2 2 ‫الطٍراى‬ ‫عالن‬ ً‫ف‬ ‫السوداء‬ ‫البجعت‬ ‫ظاهرة‬ ( Covid 19 ) ‫داء‬ٛ‫اٌغ‬ ‫اٌجغعخ‬ - .‫ّخ‬١‫خ‬ٚ ‫الت‬ٛ‫ع‬ ٌٗٚ ‫عبدح‬ ‫لع‬ٛ‫ِز‬ ٛ٘ ‫ِب‬ ‫ص‬ٚ‫زغب‬٠ ‫ش‬١‫ؽ‬ ،ٗ‫ث‬ ‫اٌزٕجؤ‬ ٓ‫ّى‬٠ ‫ال‬ ‫ؽذس‬ ٟ٘ ٚ ‫داء‬ٛ‫اٌغ‬ ‫اٌجغعخ‬ ‫أؽذاس‬ ‫ض‬١ّ‫رز‬ ‫ش٘ب‬١‫رأص‬ٚ ‫ذح‬٠‫اٌشذ‬ ‫ب‬ٙ‫ثٕذسر‬ .‫اٌّزأخش‬ ‫اإلدسان‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫اػؾخ‬ٚ ‫وبٔذ‬ ‫ب‬ٙٔ‫أ‬ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ‫اعع‬ٌٛ‫ا‬ ‫اإلطشاس‬ٚ ‫ذ‬٠‫اٌشذ‬ ‫لذ‬ٚ ‫الط‬ٛ‫ى‬١ٔ ُ١‫ٔغ‬ ً‫لج‬ ِٓ ‫اٌّظطٍؼ‬ ُ١ّ‫رع‬ ُ‫ر‬ ‫اٌغبثك‬ ‫اٌزبعش‬ٚ ‫اٌىبرت‬ٚ ‫خ‬١ٌ‫اٌّب‬ ‫أعزبر‬ ،‫ؽبٌت‬ ‫ؽذس‬ ‫فىشح‬ ٓ‫ع‬ ‫وزت‬ ‫ش‬١‫ؽ‬ .‫ذ‬٠‫عزش‬ ‫ي‬ٚٚ ٟ‫ف‬ َ‫عب‬ ‫طذس‬ ‫وزبة‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫داء‬ٛ‫اٌغ‬ ‫اٌجغعخ‬ 7002 َ‫ٌعب‬ ‫خ‬١ٌ‫اٌّب‬ ‫األصِخ‬ ‫أؽذاس‬ ً‫لج‬ 7002 . ‫ش‬١‫ؽ‬ ً١‫اٌّغزؾ‬ ِٓ ٗٔ‫أل‬ ‫ا‬‫ٔظش‬ ٗٔ‫ثأ‬ ‫ؽبٌت‬ ‫عبدي‬ ،‫ذح‬٠‫اٌشذ‬ ‫ب‬ٙ‫ٌٕذسر‬ ‫داء‬ٛ‫اٌغ‬ ‫اٌجغعخ‬ ‫ثأؽذاس‬ ‫اٌزٕجؤ‬ ‫ؽذس‬ ْ‫أ‬ ‫ب‬ّ‫دائ‬ ‫إٌبط‬ ‫فزشع‬٠ ْ‫أ‬ ٌُّٙ‫ا‬ ّٓ‫ف‬ ،ْ‫وب‬ ‫ّب‬ِٙ ،‫اؽزّبي‬ ٛ٘ ‫داء‬ٛ‫اٌغ‬ ‫اٌجغعخ‬ .‫ٌزٌه‬ ‫ب‬‫فم‬ٚ ‫ؾ‬١‫اٌزخط‬ ‫ٌخ‬ٚ‫ِؾب‬ٚ ‫ف‬ ‫ب‬ ٟ‫غ‬١‫اٌشئ‬ ‫ٌغبٔت‬ ٗٔ‫أ‬ ٛ٘ ‫داء‬ٛ‫اٌغ‬ ‫اٌجغعخ‬ ِٓ ‫ؾشص‬٠ ،ُِٙ ٟ‫خ‬٠‫ربس‬ ‫ؽذس‬ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ْٛ‫اٌّشالج‬ .ٗ‫لع‬ٛ‫ر‬ ‫خ‬١‫ف‬١‫ثى‬ ٓٙ‫اٌزى‬ٚ ٗ‫ع‬ٛ‫ل‬ٚ ‫ثعذ‬ ٗ‫ششؽ‬ ‫ِع‬ٚ ً‫اٌّغزمج‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫داء‬ٛ‫اٌغ‬ ‫ثبٌجغعبد‬ ‫اٌزٕجؤ‬ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ‫الع‬ٌٛ‫ا‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫رغبعذ‬ ‫ال‬ ٟ‫سعع‬ ‫ثأصش‬ ‫ٕبد‬ٙ‫اٌزى‬ ٖ‫٘ز‬ ً‫ِض‬ ْ‫فئ‬ ،‫رٌه‬ . ‫الطٍراى‬ ‫عالن‬ ً‫ف‬ ‫السوداء‬ ‫البجعت‬ ‫ظاهرة‬ ‫اثر‬ ١‫غ‬ٚ ‫خ‬١‫ع‬١‫اٌطج‬ ‫اسس‬ٛ‫اٌى‬ٚ ‫خ‬٠‫االلزظبد‬ ‫رشاد‬ٛ‫اٌز‬ٚ ‫االصِبد‬ ً‫و‬ ْ‫ا‬ ُ‫اع‬ ‫ب‬ٙ١ٍ‫ع‬ ‫ٔطٍك‬ ْ‫ا‬ ٓ‫ُّى‬٠ ‫ثئخ‬ٚ‫اال‬ٚ ‫ائؼ‬ٛ‫اٌغ‬ٚ ‫عخ‬١‫اٌطج‬ ‫ش‬ “ ‫ثغعخ‬ ‫داء‬ٛ‫ع‬ ” ‫اق‬ٛ‫األع‬ ‫بس‬١ٙٔ‫ا‬ ‫أصِخ‬ٚ ‫شا‬١ٌٛ‫اٌى‬ ‫ِشع‬ ‫أزشبس‬ٚ ،‫ش‬١‫اٌىج‬ ‫اٌىغبد‬ ‫اصِخ‬ ‫فّضال‬ ، 7822 ‫اؽذاس‬ٚ 77 ‫عّجزش‬ / ٓ٘‫اٌش‬ ‫أصِخ‬ٚ ‫ي‬ٍٛ٠‫أ‬ ٞ‫اٌعمبس‬ 7002 ٚ ٌُ‫اٌعب‬ ‫ي‬ٚ‫د‬ ‫اغٍت‬ ٌٝ‫ا‬ ‫ط‬ٚ‫ش‬١‫اٌف‬ ‫أزشبس‬ٚ ٟ‫رفش‬ ‫ثغجت‬ ‫سٔب‬ٛ‫و‬ ‫طذِخ‬ ‫آخش٘ب‬ ‫ظ‬١ٌٚ ‫خ‬٠‫الزظبد‬ ‫بد‬١‫رذاع‬ ِٓ ‫ب‬ٙ‫خٍف‬ ‫ِب‬ ‫لب‬ ‫خ‬١‫اعزّبع‬ٚ ‫دا‬ٛ‫ع‬ ‫ثغعبد‬ ٟ٘ ،ّٓ‫اٌض‬ ‫ثب٘ظخ‬ٚ ‫خ‬١‫ع‬ .‫ء‬ ‫ٔزطشق‬ ‫ٕ٘ب‬ٚ ٌٝ‫ا‬ ‫تأثٍر‬ Covid 19 ‫الطٍراى‬ ‫عالن‬ ‫على‬ ً‫واالجتواع‬ ‫االقتصادي‬ ٌُ‫عب‬ ‫رىجذ‬ ‫فمذ‬ : ‫خ‬١ٌ‫اٌّب‬ ‫خ‬١‫إٌبؽ‬ ّٓ‫ف‬ ْ‫شا‬١‫اٌط‬ ‫ثٍغذ‬ ‫فبدؽخ‬ ‫خغبئش‬ 227 َ‫ٌعب‬ ‫الس‬ٚ‫د‬ ْٛ١ٍ‫ث‬ 7070 ٚ َ 273 ‫الس‬ٚ‫د‬ ْٛ١ٍ‫ث‬ َ‫ٌعب‬ 7077 َ ٚ 768 َ‫ٌعب‬ ‫ي‬ٚ‫اال‬ ‫ٌٍٕظف‬ ‫الس‬ٚ‫د‬ ْٛ١ٍ‫ث‬ 7077 َ ْ‫شا‬١‫اٌط‬ ‫ششوبد‬ ِٓ ‫ش‬١‫اٌىض‬ ‫اعٍٕذ‬ٚ ِٓ ٌّٟ‫اٌعب‬ ‫ي‬ٛ‫االعط‬ ‫ٔظف‬ ْ‫خض‬ ُ‫ر‬ٚ ‫ب‬ٙ‫إفالع‬ ‫ؽبئشح‬ ‫ط‬ٚ‫خش‬ ‫اٌعّاللخ‬ ‫اٌششوبد‬ ‫ثعغ‬ ْ‫اعال‬ٚ .‫اٌطبئشاد‬ A380 .‫اٌخذِخ‬ ِٓ ‫مبسة‬٠ ‫ِب‬ ٌٝ‫ا‬ ٓ٠‫اٌّغبفش‬ ‫اٌشوبة‬ ‫عذد‬ ‫أخفغ‬ٚ َ‫ٌعب‬ ‫ِمبسٔخ‬ ‫إٌظف‬ 7078 َ‫عب‬ ٟ‫ف‬ 7070 ٌٝ‫ا‬ ‫وزا‬ٚ . 30 َ‫عب‬ ٟ‫ف‬ % 7077 َ‫ٌعب‬ ‫ِمبسٔخ‬ 7078 . ‫خ‬١‫االعزّبع‬ ‫خ‬١‫إٌبؽ‬ ِٓ ‫اِب‬ – ‫ٔب‬ٚ‫اٌىش‬ ‫ِشع‬ ‫أزشبس‬ ‫اداء‬ ‫فمذ‬ ‫البِخ‬ َ‫عذ‬ٚ ٞ‫اٌغغذ‬ ٟ‫االعزّبع‬ ‫اٌجعذ‬ ‫بعخ‬١‫ع‬ ‫ك‬١‫رطج‬ٚ ‫اٌغفش‬ ‫ِٕع‬ ٌٝ‫ا‬ ‫االعزّبع‬ٚ ‫اٌؾفالد‬ ‫بد‬٠‫اٌّجبس‬ٚ ‫بد‬ ‫ثعذ‬ ٓ‫ع‬ ‫اٌذساعخ‬ ‫بعخ‬١‫ع‬ ً١‫رفع‬ٚ ‫اٌّذاسط‬ ‫مبف‬٠‫ا‬ٚ .
3 3 ‫التٌبؤ‬ ‫ًوورج‬ :‫الطٍراى‬ ‫عالن‬ ً‫ف‬ ‫للركاب‬ ‫ٌخ‬ٛ‫ِم‬ ‫ٕ٘بن‬ ‫ِفبد٘ب‬ ‫سح‬ٛٙ‫ِش‬ ‫بوا‬ ‫القول‬ ‫في‬ ‫هو‬ ‫التٌبؤاث‬ ‫"اى‬ ٍ‫س‬ ‫وهي‬ ‫الوستقبل‬ ً‫ف‬ ‫حذث‬ ‫ثن‬ ‫رلك‬ ‫ٌحذث‬ ‫لن‬ ‫لوارا‬ ‫التفسٍر‬ ‫تقذٌن‬ " ‫ف‬ ْ‫شا‬١‫اٌط‬ ٌُ‫عب‬ ٟ‫ف‬ – ‫ب‬ٌٙ ْ‫شا‬١‫ؽ‬ ‫ششوخ‬ ً‫و‬ ‫اٌخبص‬ ‫ب‬ٙ‫رع‬ّٛٔ – ‫عىظ‬٠ ‫عخ‬١‫ؽج‬ ‫اٌجٍذ‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫بح‬١‫اٌؾ‬ ‫ّٔؾ‬ٚ ‫بد‬١ٌ‫اٌفعب‬ٚ ُ‫اع‬ٌّٛ‫ا‬ ُ٘‫ا‬ ‫وزا‬ٚ – ‫رعىظ‬ٚ ‫ثٕغجخ‬ ‫اوبٔذ‬ ٌٟ‫اٌزب‬ َ‫اٌعب‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ٜ‫اخش‬ ‫ِشح‬ ‫رعبد‬ٚ َ‫ثبألسلب‬ ُ‫اع‬ٌّٛ‫ا‬ ‫رٍه‬ .ٓ١‫ِع‬ ‫أؾغبس‬ ٚ‫ا‬ ّٛٔ ‫ٌٍزٕجؤ‬ ‫مخ‬٠‫ؽش‬ ً‫افؼ‬ ْ‫فب‬ ‫خ‬١ٍ‫ع‬ٚ َ‫ثبعزخذا‬ ‫رط‬ّٛٔ ARIMA ٛ٘ ِٓ ‫ذ‬٠‫اٌعذ‬ ‫زطٍت‬٠ٚ ‫ِعمذ‬ ٟ‫بػ‬٠‫س‬ ‫رط‬ّٛٔ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ًٙ‫رغ‬ ‫خبطخ‬ ‫ثشاِظ‬ ‫ٕ٘بن‬ٚ .‫خ‬١ِٕ‫اٌض‬ ً‫اٌغالع‬ٚ ‫االؽظبء‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫خ‬١ّ٠‫االوبد‬ ‫اٌخجشح‬ ً١ٍ‫رؾ‬ ًّ‫ع‬ َ‫اٌّغزخذ‬ ARIMA .‫خ‬١ٌ‫ِب‬ ‫ِجبٌغ‬ ً‫ِمبث‬ ٓ‫ٌى‬ٚ َ‫اٌعب‬ ٖ‫االرغب‬ ‫ٌخؾ‬ ْ‫سا‬ٚ‫اٌذ‬ٚ ‫االصاؽخ‬ ‫مخ‬٠‫ثطش‬ ‫اٌزٕجؤاد‬ ً١ٍ‫رؾ‬ ‫خ‬١ّٕ١ٌ‫ا‬ ‫خ‬٠ٛ‫اٌغ‬ ‫ؽ‬ٛ‫اٌخط‬ ‫لذِذ‬ ‫لذ‬ٚ .‫ٌٍزٕجؤ‬ ‫خ‬١‫ػع‬ٚ ً‫افؼ‬ ‫ٌزؾذد‬ ‫تحلٍل‬ ٍ‫االتجا‬ ( ‫العام‬ Back To Norms ) ‫زب‬٠‫اال‬ ً‫لج‬ ِٓ ‫اٌّمذِخ‬ ‫خ‬٠‫ِزش‬ٍٛ١‫اٌى‬ ‫اٌشوبة‬ ‫ٌؾشوخ‬ ٟٔ‫ب‬١‫اٌج‬ ُ‫اٌشع‬ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ‫اعزٕبدا‬ – ‫ٌٍؾشوخ‬ َ‫اٌعب‬ ‫ٌالرغبح‬ ٓ١ٍ١ٍٍ‫رؾ‬ ‫ٔطجك‬ ْ‫ا‬ ‫ّىٕٕب‬٠ ‫ٔب‬ٚ‫اٌىش‬ ‫س‬ٚ‫ؽذ‬ ً‫لج‬ ‫لشاءاد‬ ً١ٍ‫رؾ‬ : ‫ي‬ٚ‫اال‬ ٓ١٘‫ثبرغب‬ ‫ؼب‬٠‫ا‬ٚ ‫ا‬ - ‫طفش‬ ٜٛ‫ِغز‬ ‫عٕذ‬ َ‫اٌعب‬ ‫االرغبح‬ ً١ٍ‫رؾ‬ ‫ة‬ – َ‫اٌعب‬ ‫االرغبح‬ ً١ٍ‫رؾ‬ ‫ٔب‬ٚ‫اٌىش‬ ‫س‬ٚ‫ؽذ‬ ‫ثعذ‬ ‫لشاءاد‬ ً١ٍ‫رؾ‬ : ٟٔ‫اٌضب‬ - َ‫اٌعب‬ ‫االرغبح‬ ً١ٍ‫رؾ‬ ٓ١٘‫االرغب‬ ‫رمبؽع‬ ‫عٕذ‬ ِٓ ً١ٍ‫اٌزؾ‬ ٓ١‫ث‬ ‫ش‬١‫ؽ‬ – ٟٔ‫ب‬١‫اٌج‬ ُ‫اٌشع‬ ‫ش‬١‫ش‬٠ ‫ش‬١‫ؽ‬ ،ْ‫شا‬١‫اٌط‬ ٌُ‫ٌعب‬ ‫خ‬١‫ع‬١‫اٌطج‬ ‫اٌؾشوخ‬ٚ ‫بح‬١‫اٌؾ‬ ‫دح‬ٛ‫ٌع‬ ِٟٕ‫اٌض‬ ‫لذ‬ٌٛ‫ا‬ َ‫عب‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ٛ٠‫ِب‬ ‫ش‬ٙ‫ش‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫خ‬١‫ع‬١‫اٌطج‬ ‫اٌؾشوخ‬ ‫س‬ٚ‫ؽذ‬ ‫خ‬٠‫ٌجذا‬ 7072 ‫ش‬٠‫ٕب‬٠ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫اٌىبٍِخ‬ ‫خ‬١‫ع‬١‫اٌطج‬ ‫ٌٍؾبٌخ‬ ً‫ٌزظ‬ ٌّٕٛ‫ا‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫ٌزغزّش‬ َ 7073 .َ
4 4 ‫دراست‬ ‫ًوط‬ :ً‫العالو‬ ‫للٌوورج‬ ‫الووسوٍت‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ٟ‫ع‬١‫اٌطج‬ ‫اٌزٕجؤ‬ ‫اٌّشفك‬ ٟٔ‫ب‬١‫اٌج‬ ُ‫اٌشع‬ ‫عىظ‬٠ ‫ش‬١‫ؽ‬ )‫االؽّش‬ ٌٍْٛ‫(ا‬ ‫ٔب‬ٚ‫وش‬ ‫اصِخ‬ ‫س‬ٚ‫ؽذ‬ َ‫عذ‬ ‫ة‬ ‫لعخ‬ٛ‫اٌّز‬ ٌّٕٛ‫ا‬ ‫ٔغجخ‬ ‫وبٔذ‬ 5.07 % - ‫اسرجبؽ‬ ًِ‫ثّعب‬ ٌٟ‫عب‬ 98.53 % ٓ١‫ج‬٠ ‫وّب‬ .‫ٔب‬ٚ‫اٌىش‬ ِٓ‫ص‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫خ‬١ٍ‫اٌفع‬ ُ١‫اٌم‬ ‫د‬ٛ‫االع‬ ‫اٌخؾ‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ٌؾشوخ‬ ‫االٔخفبع‬ ً‫ط‬ٚ ‫لذ‬ٚ َ‫ٌعب‬ ‫ٌشوبة‬ 7070 ِٓ َ ‫اٌعذد‬ ‫ٔغجخ‬ ‫لع‬ٛ‫اٌّز‬ 68.61% َ‫ٌعب‬ ‫اٌشوبة‬ ‫ٌؾشوخ‬ ‫االٔخفبع‬ ً‫ط‬ٚ ‫لذ‬ٚ 7077 ‫ٔغجخ‬ ‫لع‬ٛ‫اٌّز‬ ‫اٌعذد‬ ِٓ َ 62.39 % : ‫الخالصت‬ ْ‫ا‬ َ‫ثبألسلب‬ ‫ِشرجطب‬ ‫دائّب‬ ‫اٌزٕجؤاد‬ ٍُ‫ع‬ ًّ‫ٔع‬ ْ‫ا‬ ‫عذا‬ ‫اٌظعت‬ ِٓ ‫فبٔخ‬ )‫ٔب‬ٚ‫س‬ٛ‫و‬ ‫(ؽبٌخ‬ ‫داء‬ٛ‫اٌغ‬ ‫اٌجغعخ‬ ‫ؽبٌخ‬ ‫س‬ٚ‫ؽذ‬ ‫عٕذ‬ ٓ‫ٌى‬ٚ .‫االؽظبء‬ٚ ‫لع‬ٛ‫ر‬ ‫بد‬ ‫رٕجؤاد‬ ٚ‫ا‬ – ِٓ ‫رعزجش‬ ٟٙ‫ف‬ ٌُ‫عب‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫خ‬١‫ع‬١‫اٌطج‬ ‫بح‬١‫اٌؾ‬ ٌٝ‫ا‬ ‫دح‬ٛ‫ٌٍع‬ ًِ‫ا‬ ‫ض‬١‫ثظ‬ ‫ش‬ٙ‫ظ‬ ٓ‫ٌى‬ٚ .‫ة‬ٚ‫اٌؾش‬ٚ ‫ؼبٔبد‬١‫اٌف‬ٚ ‫اٌضالي‬ ‫س‬ٚ‫ؽذ‬ ً‫ِض‬ ‫اٌمب٘شح‬ ‫ف‬ٚ‫اٌظش‬ ‫اؽذ‬ ‫الصاي‬ ‫ش‬١‫ؽ‬ ْ‫شا‬١‫اٌط‬ ‫ش‬١‫اٌزأص‬ ‫اٌٍؾظخ‬ ٝ‫ؽز‬ ‫اٌجٍذ‬ ٓ١ٔ‫ا‬ٛ‫ل‬ٚ ‫بعخ‬١‫ثغ‬ ‫رزبصش‬ ٟ‫اٌز‬ٚ ‫خ‬١ٌٚ‫اٌذ‬ ‫اٌشؽالد‬ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ْ‫ا‬ ‫خففذ‬ ‫لذ‬ ْ‫اٌجٍذا‬ ‫ثعغ‬ ْ‫ا‬ ‫فٕغذ‬ ‫ىب‬٠‫اِش‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫خبطخ‬ٚ ‫خ‬١ٍ‫اٌذاخ‬ ‫اٌشؽالد‬ ‫ثعىظ‬ .‫ب‬ٙ‫ث‬ ‫ِزّغه‬ ‫اٌجعغ‬ ‫ضاي‬٠ ‫ال‬ ‫ّٕب‬١‫ث‬ ‫اٌغفش‬ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ‫د‬ٛ١‫اٌم‬ ‫لذ‬ ‫خ‬١ٍ‫اٌذاخ‬ ‫اٌؾشوخ‬ ‫ٔغذ‬ ‫فبٕٔب‬ ‫ِب‬ ٌٝ‫ا‬ ‫اعزعبدد‬ ٜٛ‫ِغز‬ ‫مبسة‬٠ 7078 َ‫عب‬ ‫ِٕزظف‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ٌّٟ‫اٌعب‬ ْ‫شا‬١‫اٌط‬ ‫ٌٕشبؽ‬ ‫اٌىبٍِخ‬ ‫دح‬ٛ‫ثبٌع‬ ً١ٍ‫اٌزؾ‬ ‫ػؼ‬ٛ٠ ‫ٕ٘ب‬ٚ .‫ٌٍؾشوخ‬ َ 7072 َ‫عب‬ ‫خ‬٠‫ثذا‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ًّ‫ىز‬٠ٚ 7073 َ ِ ‫اٌىبٍِخ‬ ‫دح‬ٛ‫اٌع‬ ‫ش‬١‫االخ‬ ‫زب‬٠‫اال‬ ‫ش‬٠‫رمش‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫خ‬١ٌّ‫اٌعب‬ ‫اٌؾشوخ‬ ‫لطبعبد‬ ‫ثعغ‬ ‫شد‬ٙ‫اظ‬ ‫لذ‬ٚ . ٟ‫ف‬ ‫اٌؾشوخ‬ ً‫ض‬ ١ٕ١‫اٌالر‬ ‫ىب‬٠‫اِش‬ ‫خ‬ . ■

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Route development
 

black swan.pdf

  • 1. 8 ‫ا‬ ً‫الطبٍع‬ ‫الوضع‬ ‫الى‬ ‫لعودة‬ Back To Norms ‫ع‬ٛ‫ع‬ ٌُ‫عب‬ ‫ِؾّذ‬ : ‫اعذاد‬ ‫الوقذهت‬ ‫عزجش‬٠ ‫ػع‬ٚ ‫األ٘ذاف‬ ‫ؾ‬١‫اٌزخط‬ٚ ‫ب‬ٙ‫م‬١‫ٌزؾم‬ ٜ‫إؽذ‬ ‫بد‬٠‫اٌزؾذ‬ ٜ‫اٌىجش‬ ‫ٌششوبد‬ ْ‫شا‬١‫اٌط‬ . ْٚ‫فجذ‬ ‫لبعذح‬ ‫اؽظبء‬ ٓ‫ّى‬٠ ‫ال‬ ‫لشاس‬ ‫زخز‬٠ ْ‫ا‬ ٟ‫فف‬ ‫لذ‬ٌٛ‫ا‬ ٓ٘‫اٌشا‬ َٛ‫رم‬ ‫ذ‬٠‫اٌعذ‬ ِٓ ‫ششوبد‬ ْ‫شا‬١‫اٌط‬ ‫ثئطذاس‬ ‫ش‬٠‫رمبس‬ ‫خ‬١‫إؽظبئ‬ ‫رؾذد‬ٚ ‫أ٘ذافب‬ ‫ِخزٍفخ‬ ‫شح‬١‫ِزغ‬ٚ ‫اعزّبدا‬ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ُٙ‫ٔظشر‬ ٍُٙ١ٍ‫رؾ‬ٚ ‫ق‬ٛ‫ٌغ‬ ْ‫شا‬١‫اٌط‬ ‫خ‬١ٌّ‫اٌعب‬ ٚ ٜ‫اٌّذ‬ ‫ذح‬١‫ثع‬ ‫ب‬ِٕٙٚ ٜ‫اٌّذ‬ ‫شح‬١‫لظ‬ ‫ب‬ِٕٙ ‫ثبٌطجع‬ – ‫ٕ٘بن‬ ‫ششوبد‬ ‫ِٕظّبد‬ٚ ْ‫شا‬١‫ؽ‬ ‫فخ‬ٚ‫ِعش‬ ًّ‫رع‬ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ‫إطذاس‬ ً‫ِض‬ ٖ‫٘ز‬ ‫الد‬١ٍ‫اٌزؾ‬ ‫اٌزٕجؤاد‬ٚ ٟ‫ف‬ ٌُ‫عب‬ ْ‫شا‬١‫اٌط‬ ‫وبالرؾبد‬ ٌٟٚ‫اٌذ‬ ٞٛ‫اٌغ‬ ً‫ٌٍٕم‬ IATA ٟ‫ششوز‬ٚ ‫ٕظ‬٠ٛ‫اٌج‬ ،‫شثبص‬٠‫اإل‬ٚ ‫ِٕظّخ‬ٚ ْ‫شا‬١‫اٌط‬ ٟٔ‫اٌّذ‬ ‫خ‬١ٌّ‫اٌعب‬ ) ٚ‫ىب‬٠‫ا‬ - (ICAO ، ‫اٌّغٍظ‬ٚ ٌّٟ‫اٌعب‬ ‫ٌٍّطبساد‬ ( (ACI ‫ذ‬٠‫اٌعذ‬ٚ ِٓ ‫ششوبد‬ ْ‫شا‬١‫اٌط‬ ،‫خ‬١ٌّ‫اٌعب‬ ٓ‫ٌى‬ٚ ‫اٌّعؼٍخ‬ ّٓ‫رى‬ ٟ‫ف‬ َ‫عذ‬ ‫د‬ٛ‫ع‬ٚ ‫أعظ‬ ‫اػؾخ‬ٚ ٓ١ٍٍ‫ٌٍّؾ‬ ‫خبطخ‬ٚ ‫ثبٌٕغجخ‬ ‫ٌٍششوبد‬ ،‫اٌّظٕعخ‬ ‫ش‬١‫ؽ‬ ‫رؼع‬ ً‫و‬ ‫ششوخ‬ ‫بد‬١‫اٌفشػ‬ ‫ؽشق‬ٚ ً١ٍ‫اٌزؾ‬ ‫اٌخبطخ‬ ‫ب‬ٙ‫ث‬ ‫ِّب‬ ٞ‫ؤد‬٠ ‫رٌه‬ ٌٝ‫إ‬ ‫ي‬ٛ‫اٌؾظ‬ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ‫ٔزبئظ‬ ‫ِخزٍفخ‬ ً‫ِض‬ ‫اٌطبئشاد‬ ‫طٕبعخ‬ ‫ششوبد‬ ً‫ِض‬ ‫ششوخ‬ ٚ ‫ٕظ‬٠ٛ‫اٌج‬ ‫عخ‬ّٛ‫ِغ‬ ‫شثبص‬٠‫اال‬ . ‫ف‬ ‫ٕبن‬ٙ ‫ؼب‬٠‫أ‬ ‫ذ‬٠‫اٌعذ‬ ِٓ ‫اٌّؤششاد‬ ‫الخزجبس‬ ‫دلخ‬ ‫ٔزبئظ‬ ،‫اٌزٕجؤاد‬ ‫ٔزوش‬ ‫ب‬ِٕٙ ‫بط‬١‫ل‬ ًِ‫عب‬ ً‫اٌزفبػ‬ / ‫االؽزغبة‬ Coefficient of Determination ٚ ُ‫ثبٌشغ‬ ِٓ ْ‫أ‬ ٗ‫اؽزغبث‬ ٖ‫ؽذ‬ٚ ‫ال‬ ٟ‫ىف‬٠ ‫ي‬ٛ‫ٌٍؾظ‬ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ‫ٔزبئظ‬ ‫خ‬١‫بع‬١‫ل‬ ‫خ‬١‫ِشػ‬ ٚ‫أ‬ ‫ي‬ٛ‫اٌؾظ‬ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ‫سح‬ٛ‫اٌظ‬ ‫اٌىبٍِخ‬ ‫إال‬ ٗٔ‫أ‬ ‫غبٌجب‬ ‫ِب‬ َ‫غزخذ‬٠ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ‫ٔطبق‬ ‫اعع‬ٚ ٟ‫ف‬ ٌُ‫عب‬ ْ‫شا‬١‫اٌط‬ ‫وّؤشش‬ ‫ذ‬١‫ع‬ ً١ٍ‫ٌٍزؾ‬ . ٚ ٟ‫ف‬ ٖ‫٘ز‬ ،‫اٌّمبٌخ‬ ‫ٕٔبلش‬ ‫فىشح‬ ‫ذح‬٠‫عذ‬ ‫ٌٍزٕجؤ‬ َ‫ثبعزخذا‬ ٍِٟ‫عب‬ ‫ص‬ٛ‫فؾ‬ ‫خ‬١‫إؽظبئ‬ – ‫الؽزغبة‬ ٍِٟ‫عب‬ ‫اإلصاؽخ‬ ْ‫سا‬ٚ‫اٌذ‬ٚ ‫اٌّشرجطخ‬ ‫رط‬ٌّٕٛ‫ثب‬ ‫ش‬١‫ؽ‬ ‫غزخذِب‬٠ ‫وأداح‬ ‫ِغؼ‬ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ٞ‫س‬ٛ‫ِؾ‬ x,y . ‫ال‬ ‫عالن‬ ‫تٌبؤاث‬ ‫الطائراث‬ ‫لصٌاع‬ ‫ب‬ِٙٛٙ‫ِف‬ ‫طبٔعخ‬ ‫ششوخ‬ ً‫ٌى‬ ، ْ‫شا‬١‫اٌط‬ ٌُ‫عب‬ ‫طٕبعخ‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ثطٍت‬ ‫ٌزٕجؤ‬ ‫خ‬١ٍّ‫ٌع‬ ‫ٌخبص‬ ‫ا‬ .‫ب‬ٙ‫فٍغفز‬ٚ ‫ب‬ٙ‫بر‬١‫غ‬١‫اعزشار‬ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ‫ثٕبء‬ ّٗ١١‫رم‬ٚ ‫ٌشوبة‬ ‫ع‬ّٛ‫ِغ‬ ‫فٍغفخ‬ ‫رغزٕذ‬ٚ ‫خ‬ ‫ض‬١‫اٌزشو‬ٚ ‫ذ‬١‫ؽ‬ٛ‫اٌز‬ ‫ِجذا‬ ٌٝ‫إ‬ ‫شثبص‬٠‫اال‬ (Hub To Hub) ."‫س‬ٛ‫اٌّؾ‬ ٌٝ‫إ‬ ‫س‬ٛ‫"اٌّؾ‬ ‫ثطشاص‬ ُٙ‫خذِز‬ٚ ‫ٌٍشوبة‬ ً‫بئ‬ٌٙ‫ا‬ ‫ع‬١ّ‫اٌزغ‬ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ‫رغزٕذ‬ ‫فىشح‬ ٟ٘ٚ ‫اؽذ‬ٚ ٌ‫ا‬ٚ ٜ‫اد‬ ٞ‫ز‬ ‫ؽبئشح‬ ‫ع‬١ٕ‫رظ‬ ٌٝ‫إ‬ A380 .‫اٌعّاللخ‬ ‫رغ‬ٚ ‫ـ‬ ‫اٌزغضئخ‬ ‫ِجذأ‬ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ‫ٕظ‬٠ٛ‫اٌج‬ ‫ششوخ‬ ‫فٍغفخ‬ ‫زٕذ‬ (point to point) ٌٝ‫إ‬ ‫ٔمطخ‬ ِٓ" ."‫ٔمطخ‬ ‫ِجذا‬ٚ ‫خذِخ‬ ‫خ‬٠‫اٌّشوض‬ َ‫عذ‬ ٌ‫ا‬ ‫ع‬١ّ‫ع‬ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ‫ّطبساد‬ ‫عذد‬ ‫بدح‬٠‫ص‬ ‫اعبعخ‬ ْ‫وب‬ ٟ‫اٌز‬ٚ ‫عطخ‬ٛ‫ِز‬ َ‫ثأؽغب‬ ‫اٌشؽالد‬ ٞ‫اٌز‬ٚ ‫ا‬ ‫ع‬١ٕ‫رظ‬ ٌٝ‫إ‬ ٜ‫د‬ B787 ُ٠‫دس‬ .‫ٕش‬٠‫ال‬ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ‫ٌٍزٕجؤ‬ ‫٘زا‬ .ً٠ٛ‫اٌط‬ ٜ‫اٌّذ‬ ‫ِظطٍؼ‬ ‫ب‬ّ‫دائ‬ ٗ‫اع‬ٛٔ ‫فئٕٔب‬ ، ‫ش‬١‫اٌمظ‬ ٜ‫اٌّذ‬ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ‫ٌٍزٕجؤ‬ ‫ثبٌٕغجخ‬ ٓ‫ٌى‬ ‫خ‬١ّ‫ع‬ٌّٛ‫ا‬ ‫خ‬١ٍ‫اٌفظ‬ٚ ‫خ‬٠‫س‬ٚ‫اٌذ‬ ‫خ‬٠‫ش‬ٙ‫اٌش‬ٚ ‫خ‬١ٍ‫اٌفظ‬ ‫شاد‬١‫اٌزغ‬ ‫عىظ‬٠ ٛ٘ٚ . ٚ ٓ‫ع‬ ‫ش‬١‫اٌزعج‬ ٓ‫ّى‬٠ ٌ‫ا‬ ‫ك‬١‫ٌزطج‬ ‫خ‬١ٍ‫اٌفع‬ ‫مخ‬٠‫طش‬ ‫رط‬ّٛٔ ‫اٌزٕجؤ‬ ٌ ‫رط‬ّٛٔ ‫خالي‬ ِٓ ْ‫شا‬١‫اٌط‬ ‫ظٕبعخ‬ ARIMA .ّٟ‫ع‬ٌّٛ‫ا‬ ‫خ‬٠ٛ‫اٌغ‬ ‫ؽ‬ٛ‫اٌخط‬ ‫اعزخذِذ‬ ‫لذ‬ٚ ‫خ‬١ّٕ١ٌ‫ا‬ - ‫مخ‬٠‫ؽش‬ ‫ي‬ٚ‫رزٕب‬ ‫ذح‬٠‫عذ‬ ًِ‫ا‬ٛ‫ع‬ ً١ٍ‫ثزم‬ ‫االخطبء‬ ‫ع‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ُ‫رزؾى‬ ٟ‫اٌز‬ٚ ٍِٟ‫ب‬ ‫ػ‬ٚ‫إٌض‬ Displacement ٌ‫ا‬ٚ ْ‫سا‬ٚ‫ذ‬ Rotation .‫ذ‬٠‫اٌغذ‬ ‫رط‬ٌٍّٕٛ ‫العالوٍت‬ ‫الحركت‬ ‫للركاب‬ ً‫ف‬ ‫الطٍراى‬ ‫عالن‬ ‫رط‬ّٛٔ ُ‫زغ‬٠ ‫ا‬ ‫ٌؾشوخ‬ ٌُ‫عب‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫ٌٍشوبة‬ ‫خ‬١ٌّ‫اٌعب‬ ٌٟ‫اٌعب‬ ‫إٌّؤ‬ٚ ‫خ‬١ّ‫ع‬ٌّٛ‫ثب‬ ْ‫شا‬١‫اٌط‬ – ٟ‫ف‬١‫اٌظ‬ ُ‫ع‬ٌّٛ‫ا‬ ٓ١١‫غ‬١‫سئ‬ ٓ١ّ‫ع‬ّٛ‫ث‬ ‫زأصش‬٠ ‫ثبٔخ‬ ‫ٔغذح‬ ‫رط‬ٌّٕٛ‫ا‬ ‫٘زا‬ ‫دساعخ‬ ‫فعٕذ‬ ُ‫ع‬ٌّٛ‫ا‬ٚ ٞٛ‫اٌشز‬ – ‫اٌّذاسط‬ ٌٝ‫ا‬ ‫دح‬ٛ‫اٌع‬ ُ‫ع‬ِٛ ٟ‫بر‬٠ ‫ثعذ٘ب‬ٚ – ‫ذ‬١‫ع‬ ُ‫ع‬ِٛ ‫وزا‬ٚ ‫خ‬١‫بػ‬٠‫اٌش‬ ُ‫اع‬ٌّٛ‫ا‬ ‫وزا‬ٚ ٓ١ٍّ‫اٌّغ‬ ‫عٕذ‬ ‫اٌعّشح‬ٚ ‫اٌؾظ‬ ُ‫ع‬ِٛٚ ٓ١١‫ؾ‬١‫اٌّغ‬ ‫عٕذ‬ ‫الد‬١ٌّ‫ا‬ ‫فبٔخ‬ ‫رٌه‬ ‫ثذساعخ‬ٚ ‫اٌؾشوخ‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫اٌخبص‬ ‫رعخ‬ّٛٔ ‫عفش‬ ‫ِمطع‬ ً‫ٌى‬ٚ ‫ثٍذ‬ ً‫فٍى‬ .‫خ‬٠ٚ‫اٌىش‬ ‫اٌزشغ‬ ‫خ‬١ِٛ١ٌ‫ا‬ ‫ثخططٕب‬ ‫ٕعىظ‬٠ ١ ‫ٌٍّطبساد‬ ‫اوبٔذ‬ ‫خ‬١ٍ ‫ششوبد‬ ٚ‫ا‬ ‫ؾ‬١‫ٌٍزخط‬ ْ‫شا‬١‫اٌط‬ .‫ران‬ ٚ‫ا‬ ‫اٌخؾ‬ ‫٘زا‬ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ‫لعخ‬ٛ‫اٌّز‬ ‫اٌؾشوخ‬ ‫عبة‬١‫العز‬
  • 2. 2 2 ‫الطٍراى‬ ‫عالن‬ ً‫ف‬ ‫السوداء‬ ‫البجعت‬ ‫ظاهرة‬ ( Covid 19 ) ‫داء‬ٛ‫اٌغ‬ ‫اٌجغعخ‬ - .‫ّخ‬١‫خ‬ٚ ‫الت‬ٛ‫ع‬ ٌٗٚ ‫عبدح‬ ‫لع‬ٛ‫ِز‬ ٛ٘ ‫ِب‬ ‫ص‬ٚ‫زغب‬٠ ‫ش‬١‫ؽ‬ ،ٗ‫ث‬ ‫اٌزٕجؤ‬ ٓ‫ّى‬٠ ‫ال‬ ‫ؽذس‬ ٟ٘ ٚ ‫داء‬ٛ‫اٌغ‬ ‫اٌجغعخ‬ ‫أؽذاس‬ ‫ض‬١ّ‫رز‬ ‫ش٘ب‬١‫رأص‬ٚ ‫ذح‬٠‫اٌشذ‬ ‫ب‬ٙ‫ثٕذسر‬ .‫اٌّزأخش‬ ‫اإلدسان‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫اػؾخ‬ٚ ‫وبٔذ‬ ‫ب‬ٙٔ‫أ‬ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ‫اعع‬ٌٛ‫ا‬ ‫اإلطشاس‬ٚ ‫ذ‬٠‫اٌشذ‬ ‫لذ‬ٚ ‫الط‬ٛ‫ى‬١ٔ ُ١‫ٔغ‬ ً‫لج‬ ِٓ ‫اٌّظطٍؼ‬ ُ١ّ‫رع‬ ُ‫ر‬ ‫اٌغبثك‬ ‫اٌزبعش‬ٚ ‫اٌىبرت‬ٚ ‫خ‬١ٌ‫اٌّب‬ ‫أعزبر‬ ،‫ؽبٌت‬ ‫ؽذس‬ ‫فىشح‬ ٓ‫ع‬ ‫وزت‬ ‫ش‬١‫ؽ‬ .‫ذ‬٠‫عزش‬ ‫ي‬ٚٚ ٟ‫ف‬ َ‫عب‬ ‫طذس‬ ‫وزبة‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫داء‬ٛ‫اٌغ‬ ‫اٌجغعخ‬ 7002 َ‫ٌعب‬ ‫خ‬١ٌ‫اٌّب‬ ‫األصِخ‬ ‫أؽذاس‬ ً‫لج‬ 7002 . ‫ش‬١‫ؽ‬ ً١‫اٌّغزؾ‬ ِٓ ٗٔ‫أل‬ ‫ا‬‫ٔظش‬ ٗٔ‫ثأ‬ ‫ؽبٌت‬ ‫عبدي‬ ،‫ذح‬٠‫اٌشذ‬ ‫ب‬ٙ‫ٌٕذسر‬ ‫داء‬ٛ‫اٌغ‬ ‫اٌجغعخ‬ ‫ثأؽذاس‬ ‫اٌزٕجؤ‬ ‫ؽذس‬ ْ‫أ‬ ‫ب‬ّ‫دائ‬ ‫إٌبط‬ ‫فزشع‬٠ ْ‫أ‬ ٌُّٙ‫ا‬ ّٓ‫ف‬ ،ْ‫وب‬ ‫ّب‬ِٙ ،‫اؽزّبي‬ ٛ٘ ‫داء‬ٛ‫اٌغ‬ ‫اٌجغعخ‬ .‫ٌزٌه‬ ‫ب‬‫فم‬ٚ ‫ؾ‬١‫اٌزخط‬ ‫ٌخ‬ٚ‫ِؾب‬ٚ ‫ف‬ ‫ب‬ ٟ‫غ‬١‫اٌشئ‬ ‫ٌغبٔت‬ ٗٔ‫أ‬ ٛ٘ ‫داء‬ٛ‫اٌغ‬ ‫اٌجغعخ‬ ِٓ ‫ؾشص‬٠ ،ُِٙ ٟ‫خ‬٠‫ربس‬ ‫ؽذس‬ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ْٛ‫اٌّشالج‬ .ٗ‫لع‬ٛ‫ر‬ ‫خ‬١‫ف‬١‫ثى‬ ٓٙ‫اٌزى‬ٚ ٗ‫ع‬ٛ‫ل‬ٚ ‫ثعذ‬ ٗ‫ششؽ‬ ‫ِع‬ٚ ً‫اٌّغزمج‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫داء‬ٛ‫اٌغ‬ ‫ثبٌجغعبد‬ ‫اٌزٕجؤ‬ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ‫الع‬ٌٛ‫ا‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫رغبعذ‬ ‫ال‬ ٟ‫سعع‬ ‫ثأصش‬ ‫ٕبد‬ٙ‫اٌزى‬ ٖ‫٘ز‬ ً‫ِض‬ ْ‫فئ‬ ،‫رٌه‬ . ‫الطٍراى‬ ‫عالن‬ ً‫ف‬ ‫السوداء‬ ‫البجعت‬ ‫ظاهرة‬ ‫اثر‬ ١‫غ‬ٚ ‫خ‬١‫ع‬١‫اٌطج‬ ‫اسس‬ٛ‫اٌى‬ٚ ‫خ‬٠‫االلزظبد‬ ‫رشاد‬ٛ‫اٌز‬ٚ ‫االصِبد‬ ً‫و‬ ْ‫ا‬ ُ‫اع‬ ‫ب‬ٙ١ٍ‫ع‬ ‫ٔطٍك‬ ْ‫ا‬ ٓ‫ُّى‬٠ ‫ثئخ‬ٚ‫اال‬ٚ ‫ائؼ‬ٛ‫اٌغ‬ٚ ‫عخ‬١‫اٌطج‬ ‫ش‬ “ ‫ثغعخ‬ ‫داء‬ٛ‫ع‬ ” ‫اق‬ٛ‫األع‬ ‫بس‬١ٙٔ‫ا‬ ‫أصِخ‬ٚ ‫شا‬١ٌٛ‫اٌى‬ ‫ِشع‬ ‫أزشبس‬ٚ ،‫ش‬١‫اٌىج‬ ‫اٌىغبد‬ ‫اصِخ‬ ‫فّضال‬ ، 7822 ‫اؽذاس‬ٚ 77 ‫عّجزش‬ / ٓ٘‫اٌش‬ ‫أصِخ‬ٚ ‫ي‬ٍٛ٠‫أ‬ ٞ‫اٌعمبس‬ 7002 ٚ ٌُ‫اٌعب‬ ‫ي‬ٚ‫د‬ ‫اغٍت‬ ٌٝ‫ا‬ ‫ط‬ٚ‫ش‬١‫اٌف‬ ‫أزشبس‬ٚ ٟ‫رفش‬ ‫ثغجت‬ ‫سٔب‬ٛ‫و‬ ‫طذِخ‬ ‫آخش٘ب‬ ‫ظ‬١ٌٚ ‫خ‬٠‫الزظبد‬ ‫بد‬١‫رذاع‬ ِٓ ‫ب‬ٙ‫خٍف‬ ‫ِب‬ ‫لب‬ ‫خ‬١‫اعزّبع‬ٚ ‫دا‬ٛ‫ع‬ ‫ثغعبد‬ ٟ٘ ،ّٓ‫اٌض‬ ‫ثب٘ظخ‬ٚ ‫خ‬١‫ع‬ .‫ء‬ ‫ٔزطشق‬ ‫ٕ٘ب‬ٚ ٌٝ‫ا‬ ‫تأثٍر‬ Covid 19 ‫الطٍراى‬ ‫عالن‬ ‫على‬ ً‫واالجتواع‬ ‫االقتصادي‬ ٌُ‫عب‬ ‫رىجذ‬ ‫فمذ‬ : ‫خ‬١ٌ‫اٌّب‬ ‫خ‬١‫إٌبؽ‬ ّٓ‫ف‬ ْ‫شا‬١‫اٌط‬ ‫ثٍغذ‬ ‫فبدؽخ‬ ‫خغبئش‬ 227 َ‫ٌعب‬ ‫الس‬ٚ‫د‬ ْٛ١ٍ‫ث‬ 7070 ٚ َ 273 ‫الس‬ٚ‫د‬ ْٛ١ٍ‫ث‬ َ‫ٌعب‬ 7077 َ ٚ 768 َ‫ٌعب‬ ‫ي‬ٚ‫اال‬ ‫ٌٍٕظف‬ ‫الس‬ٚ‫د‬ ْٛ١ٍ‫ث‬ 7077 َ ْ‫شا‬١‫اٌط‬ ‫ششوبد‬ ِٓ ‫ش‬١‫اٌىض‬ ‫اعٍٕذ‬ٚ ِٓ ٌّٟ‫اٌعب‬ ‫ي‬ٛ‫االعط‬ ‫ٔظف‬ ْ‫خض‬ ُ‫ر‬ٚ ‫ب‬ٙ‫إفالع‬ ‫ؽبئشح‬ ‫ط‬ٚ‫خش‬ ‫اٌعّاللخ‬ ‫اٌششوبد‬ ‫ثعغ‬ ْ‫اعال‬ٚ .‫اٌطبئشاد‬ A380 .‫اٌخذِخ‬ ِٓ ‫مبسة‬٠ ‫ِب‬ ٌٝ‫ا‬ ٓ٠‫اٌّغبفش‬ ‫اٌشوبة‬ ‫عذد‬ ‫أخفغ‬ٚ َ‫ٌعب‬ ‫ِمبسٔخ‬ ‫إٌظف‬ 7078 َ‫عب‬ ٟ‫ف‬ 7070 ٌٝ‫ا‬ ‫وزا‬ٚ . 30 َ‫عب‬ ٟ‫ف‬ % 7077 َ‫ٌعب‬ ‫ِمبسٔخ‬ 7078 . ‫خ‬١‫االعزّبع‬ ‫خ‬١‫إٌبؽ‬ ِٓ ‫اِب‬ – ‫ٔب‬ٚ‫اٌىش‬ ‫ِشع‬ ‫أزشبس‬ ‫اداء‬ ‫فمذ‬ ‫البِخ‬ َ‫عذ‬ٚ ٞ‫اٌغغذ‬ ٟ‫االعزّبع‬ ‫اٌجعذ‬ ‫بعخ‬١‫ع‬ ‫ك‬١‫رطج‬ٚ ‫اٌغفش‬ ‫ِٕع‬ ٌٝ‫ا‬ ‫االعزّبع‬ٚ ‫اٌؾفالد‬ ‫بد‬٠‫اٌّجبس‬ٚ ‫بد‬ ‫ثعذ‬ ٓ‫ع‬ ‫اٌذساعخ‬ ‫بعخ‬١‫ع‬ ً١‫رفع‬ٚ ‫اٌّذاسط‬ ‫مبف‬٠‫ا‬ٚ .
  • 3. 3 3 ‫التٌبؤ‬ ‫ًوورج‬ :‫الطٍراى‬ ‫عالن‬ ً‫ف‬ ‫للركاب‬ ‫ٌخ‬ٛ‫ِم‬ ‫ٕ٘بن‬ ‫ِفبد٘ب‬ ‫سح‬ٛٙ‫ِش‬ ‫بوا‬ ‫القول‬ ‫في‬ ‫هو‬ ‫التٌبؤاث‬ ‫"اى‬ ٍ‫س‬ ‫وهي‬ ‫الوستقبل‬ ً‫ف‬ ‫حذث‬ ‫ثن‬ ‫رلك‬ ‫ٌحذث‬ ‫لن‬ ‫لوارا‬ ‫التفسٍر‬ ‫تقذٌن‬ " ‫ف‬ ْ‫شا‬١‫اٌط‬ ٌُ‫عب‬ ٟ‫ف‬ – ‫ب‬ٌٙ ْ‫شا‬١‫ؽ‬ ‫ششوخ‬ ً‫و‬ ‫اٌخبص‬ ‫ب‬ٙ‫رع‬ّٛٔ – ‫عىظ‬٠ ‫عخ‬١‫ؽج‬ ‫اٌجٍذ‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫بح‬١‫اٌؾ‬ ‫ّٔؾ‬ٚ ‫بد‬١ٌ‫اٌفعب‬ٚ ُ‫اع‬ٌّٛ‫ا‬ ُ٘‫ا‬ ‫وزا‬ٚ – ‫رعىظ‬ٚ ‫ثٕغجخ‬ ‫اوبٔذ‬ ٌٟ‫اٌزب‬ َ‫اٌعب‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ٜ‫اخش‬ ‫ِشح‬ ‫رعبد‬ٚ َ‫ثبألسلب‬ ُ‫اع‬ٌّٛ‫ا‬ ‫رٍه‬ .ٓ١‫ِع‬ ‫أؾغبس‬ ٚ‫ا‬ ّٛٔ ‫ٌٍزٕجؤ‬ ‫مخ‬٠‫ؽش‬ ً‫افؼ‬ ْ‫فب‬ ‫خ‬١ٍ‫ع‬ٚ َ‫ثبعزخذا‬ ‫رط‬ّٛٔ ARIMA ٛ٘ ِٓ ‫ذ‬٠‫اٌعذ‬ ‫زطٍت‬٠ٚ ‫ِعمذ‬ ٟ‫بػ‬٠‫س‬ ‫رط‬ّٛٔ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ًٙ‫رغ‬ ‫خبطخ‬ ‫ثشاِظ‬ ‫ٕ٘بن‬ٚ .‫خ‬١ِٕ‫اٌض‬ ً‫اٌغالع‬ٚ ‫االؽظبء‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫خ‬١ّ٠‫االوبد‬ ‫اٌخجشح‬ ً١ٍ‫رؾ‬ ًّ‫ع‬ َ‫اٌّغزخذ‬ ARIMA .‫خ‬١ٌ‫ِب‬ ‫ِجبٌغ‬ ً‫ِمبث‬ ٓ‫ٌى‬ٚ َ‫اٌعب‬ ٖ‫االرغب‬ ‫ٌخؾ‬ ْ‫سا‬ٚ‫اٌذ‬ٚ ‫االصاؽخ‬ ‫مخ‬٠‫ثطش‬ ‫اٌزٕجؤاد‬ ً١ٍ‫رؾ‬ ‫خ‬١ّٕ١ٌ‫ا‬ ‫خ‬٠ٛ‫اٌغ‬ ‫ؽ‬ٛ‫اٌخط‬ ‫لذِذ‬ ‫لذ‬ٚ .‫ٌٍزٕجؤ‬ ‫خ‬١‫ػع‬ٚ ً‫افؼ‬ ‫ٌزؾذد‬ ‫تحلٍل‬ ٍ‫االتجا‬ ( ‫العام‬ Back To Norms ) ‫زب‬٠‫اال‬ ً‫لج‬ ِٓ ‫اٌّمذِخ‬ ‫خ‬٠‫ِزش‬ٍٛ١‫اٌى‬ ‫اٌشوبة‬ ‫ٌؾشوخ‬ ٟٔ‫ب‬١‫اٌج‬ ُ‫اٌشع‬ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ‫اعزٕبدا‬ – ‫ٌٍؾشوخ‬ َ‫اٌعب‬ ‫ٌالرغبح‬ ٓ١ٍ١ٍٍ‫رؾ‬ ‫ٔطجك‬ ْ‫ا‬ ‫ّىٕٕب‬٠ ‫ٔب‬ٚ‫اٌىش‬ ‫س‬ٚ‫ؽذ‬ ً‫لج‬ ‫لشاءاد‬ ً١ٍ‫رؾ‬ : ‫ي‬ٚ‫اال‬ ٓ١٘‫ثبرغب‬ ‫ؼب‬٠‫ا‬ٚ ‫ا‬ - ‫طفش‬ ٜٛ‫ِغز‬ ‫عٕذ‬ َ‫اٌعب‬ ‫االرغبح‬ ً١ٍ‫رؾ‬ ‫ة‬ – َ‫اٌعب‬ ‫االرغبح‬ ً١ٍ‫رؾ‬ ‫ٔب‬ٚ‫اٌىش‬ ‫س‬ٚ‫ؽذ‬ ‫ثعذ‬ ‫لشاءاد‬ ً١ٍ‫رؾ‬ : ٟٔ‫اٌضب‬ - َ‫اٌعب‬ ‫االرغبح‬ ً١ٍ‫رؾ‬ ٓ١٘‫االرغب‬ ‫رمبؽع‬ ‫عٕذ‬ ِٓ ً١ٍ‫اٌزؾ‬ ٓ١‫ث‬ ‫ش‬١‫ؽ‬ – ٟٔ‫ب‬١‫اٌج‬ ُ‫اٌشع‬ ‫ش‬١‫ش‬٠ ‫ش‬١‫ؽ‬ ،ْ‫شا‬١‫اٌط‬ ٌُ‫ٌعب‬ ‫خ‬١‫ع‬١‫اٌطج‬ ‫اٌؾشوخ‬ٚ ‫بح‬١‫اٌؾ‬ ‫دح‬ٛ‫ٌع‬ ِٟٕ‫اٌض‬ ‫لذ‬ٌٛ‫ا‬ َ‫عب‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ٛ٠‫ِب‬ ‫ش‬ٙ‫ش‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫خ‬١‫ع‬١‫اٌطج‬ ‫اٌؾشوخ‬ ‫س‬ٚ‫ؽذ‬ ‫خ‬٠‫ٌجذا‬ 7072 ‫ش‬٠‫ٕب‬٠ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫اٌىبٍِخ‬ ‫خ‬١‫ع‬١‫اٌطج‬ ‫ٌٍؾبٌخ‬ ً‫ٌزظ‬ ٌّٕٛ‫ا‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫ٌزغزّش‬ َ 7073 .َ
  • 4. 4 4 ‫دراست‬ ‫ًوط‬ :ً‫العالو‬ ‫للٌوورج‬ ‫الووسوٍت‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ٟ‫ع‬١‫اٌطج‬ ‫اٌزٕجؤ‬ ‫اٌّشفك‬ ٟٔ‫ب‬١‫اٌج‬ ُ‫اٌشع‬ ‫عىظ‬٠ ‫ش‬١‫ؽ‬ )‫االؽّش‬ ٌٍْٛ‫(ا‬ ‫ٔب‬ٚ‫وش‬ ‫اصِخ‬ ‫س‬ٚ‫ؽذ‬ َ‫عذ‬ ‫ة‬ ‫لعخ‬ٛ‫اٌّز‬ ٌّٕٛ‫ا‬ ‫ٔغجخ‬ ‫وبٔذ‬ 5.07 % - ‫اسرجبؽ‬ ًِ‫ثّعب‬ ٌٟ‫عب‬ 98.53 % ٓ١‫ج‬٠ ‫وّب‬ .‫ٔب‬ٚ‫اٌىش‬ ِٓ‫ص‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫خ‬١ٍ‫اٌفع‬ ُ١‫اٌم‬ ‫د‬ٛ‫االع‬ ‫اٌخؾ‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ٌؾشوخ‬ ‫االٔخفبع‬ ً‫ط‬ٚ ‫لذ‬ٚ َ‫ٌعب‬ ‫ٌشوبة‬ 7070 ِٓ َ ‫اٌعذد‬ ‫ٔغجخ‬ ‫لع‬ٛ‫اٌّز‬ 68.61% َ‫ٌعب‬ ‫اٌشوبة‬ ‫ٌؾشوخ‬ ‫االٔخفبع‬ ً‫ط‬ٚ ‫لذ‬ٚ 7077 ‫ٔغجخ‬ ‫لع‬ٛ‫اٌّز‬ ‫اٌعذد‬ ِٓ َ 62.39 % : ‫الخالصت‬ ْ‫ا‬ َ‫ثبألسلب‬ ‫ِشرجطب‬ ‫دائّب‬ ‫اٌزٕجؤاد‬ ٍُ‫ع‬ ًّ‫ٔع‬ ْ‫ا‬ ‫عذا‬ ‫اٌظعت‬ ِٓ ‫فبٔخ‬ )‫ٔب‬ٚ‫س‬ٛ‫و‬ ‫(ؽبٌخ‬ ‫داء‬ٛ‫اٌغ‬ ‫اٌجغعخ‬ ‫ؽبٌخ‬ ‫س‬ٚ‫ؽذ‬ ‫عٕذ‬ ٓ‫ٌى‬ٚ .‫االؽظبء‬ٚ ‫لع‬ٛ‫ر‬ ‫بد‬ ‫رٕجؤاد‬ ٚ‫ا‬ – ِٓ ‫رعزجش‬ ٟٙ‫ف‬ ٌُ‫عب‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫خ‬١‫ع‬١‫اٌطج‬ ‫بح‬١‫اٌؾ‬ ٌٝ‫ا‬ ‫دح‬ٛ‫ٌٍع‬ ًِ‫ا‬ ‫ض‬١‫ثظ‬ ‫ش‬ٙ‫ظ‬ ٓ‫ٌى‬ٚ .‫ة‬ٚ‫اٌؾش‬ٚ ‫ؼبٔبد‬١‫اٌف‬ٚ ‫اٌضالي‬ ‫س‬ٚ‫ؽذ‬ ً‫ِض‬ ‫اٌمب٘شح‬ ‫ف‬ٚ‫اٌظش‬ ‫اؽذ‬ ‫الصاي‬ ‫ش‬١‫ؽ‬ ْ‫شا‬١‫اٌط‬ ‫ش‬١‫اٌزأص‬ ‫اٌٍؾظخ‬ ٝ‫ؽز‬ ‫اٌجٍذ‬ ٓ١ٔ‫ا‬ٛ‫ل‬ٚ ‫بعخ‬١‫ثغ‬ ‫رزبصش‬ ٟ‫اٌز‬ٚ ‫خ‬١ٌٚ‫اٌذ‬ ‫اٌشؽالد‬ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ْ‫ا‬ ‫خففذ‬ ‫لذ‬ ْ‫اٌجٍذا‬ ‫ثعغ‬ ْ‫ا‬ ‫فٕغذ‬ ‫ىب‬٠‫اِش‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫خبطخ‬ٚ ‫خ‬١ٍ‫اٌذاخ‬ ‫اٌشؽالد‬ ‫ثعىظ‬ .‫ب‬ٙ‫ث‬ ‫ِزّغه‬ ‫اٌجعغ‬ ‫ضاي‬٠ ‫ال‬ ‫ّٕب‬١‫ث‬ ‫اٌغفش‬ ٍٝ‫ع‬ ‫د‬ٛ١‫اٌم‬ ‫لذ‬ ‫خ‬١ٍ‫اٌذاخ‬ ‫اٌؾشوخ‬ ‫ٔغذ‬ ‫فبٕٔب‬ ‫ِب‬ ٌٝ‫ا‬ ‫اعزعبدد‬ ٜٛ‫ِغز‬ ‫مبسة‬٠ 7078 َ‫عب‬ ‫ِٕزظف‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ٌّٟ‫اٌعب‬ ْ‫شا‬١‫اٌط‬ ‫ٌٕشبؽ‬ ‫اٌىبٍِخ‬ ‫دح‬ٛ‫ثبٌع‬ ً١ٍ‫اٌزؾ‬ ‫ػؼ‬ٛ٠ ‫ٕ٘ب‬ٚ .‫ٌٍؾشوخ‬ َ 7072 َ‫عب‬ ‫خ‬٠‫ثذا‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ًّ‫ىز‬٠ٚ 7073 َ ِ ‫اٌىبٍِخ‬ ‫دح‬ٛ‫اٌع‬ ‫ش‬١‫االخ‬ ‫زب‬٠‫اال‬ ‫ش‬٠‫رمش‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫خ‬١ٌّ‫اٌعب‬ ‫اٌؾشوخ‬ ‫لطبعبد‬ ‫ثعغ‬ ‫شد‬ٙ‫اظ‬ ‫لذ‬ٚ . ٟ‫ف‬ ‫اٌؾشوخ‬ ً‫ض‬ ١ٕ١‫اٌالر‬ ‫ىب‬٠‫اِش‬ ‫خ‬ . ■