Back To Norms,
It is addressing the impact of Covid19, and when to recover, both IATA are used Pax and Cargo, then we used Dlephi method to reflect the judgment of expert people to reflect their opinion in real life.
This research is up todate - we used IATA information
7. Introduction
Black Swan Situation
Black Swan Theory:
A theory that suggests that rare events are unpredictable as if they were
impossible to happen.
The theory took its name from the swan, as it was widely believed that all birds
of this species were white, until black swans were discovered in Western
Australia in the 18th century.
- It is an unexpected surprise and have a significant impact, and
- After it occurs the explanations that it considers predictable appear.
The theory was described by The Black Swan in 2007. There are no agreed criteria by classifying an event as a "black
swan", so it could be a natural disaster, a sudden war, a financial collapse or a global outbreak of a deadly virus
such as the Covid-19 pandemic, but, according to Naseem Nicola, black swan events usually have three main
characteristics:
- It has not occurred in the recent past, and
- the forecasting and forecasting tools used at the time of their occurrence cannot be monitored.
- It has a profound impact on societies around the world.
- They are inexplicable at the time they occur, and can only be absorbed long enough after they have occurred.
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Results
Back To Norms : May 2023 – Jan 2024
Polling (LinkedIn) - Recovery On: 2024
Passenger Details :
Pre-set Target 2021 = 9097 b. RPKs Dropped by 68.61 %
from Actual Level
Pre-set Target 2022 = 9559 b. RPKs Dropped by --------
from Actual Level
Air Cargo Details :
Pre-set Target 2021 = 257 b. CTKs Dropped by 9.59 %
from Actual Level
Pre-set Target 2022 = 257 b. CTKs Raised by --------
from Actual Level
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Summary
Industry practice, we always use a point to point
analysis (Month by Month and Year by Year – YoY ) in
terms of percentage which is reflected by V shape
Curve.
But to define the seasonality pattern, we have to work
on span of time - interval/period , to create a base line
(Reference) to compare, so that we can get a clear
picture about the Aviation Industry.
All signals indicate, that the airline industry will
recover by 2024.
For Domestic Operation- most of the big countries are
recovered, especially China, Russia and USA.
But for international operation still the world suffering
from COVID 19 – especially Europe.
Air Cargo industry is not significantly impacted in
2020 (dropped by 9.59% ) while in 2021 it shows
significant growth at higher level then it was expected.
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References
Air Passengers Market Analysis
https://www.iata.org/en/publications/economics/?
EconomicsL1=144&EconomicsL2=146#searchFor
m
Air Cargo Market Analysis
https://www.iata.org/en/publications/economics/?
EconomicsL1=144&EconomicsL2=147#searchFor
m