1. ELECTIONS ON THE
GROUND AND IN THE
AIR
#SSLBC2012 Comparing Perches and Perspectives

2. What’s Up?
2

3. Why am I here?
3
 Everyone else was busy
 Excuse to visit campus
 Wouldn’t have finished my thesis if it weren’t
for Ellen
 Follow and have worked in political risk
 Helped managed election observation mission
in Liberia, November 2011
 Currently, working at startup that uses
predictive analysis and temporal analytics

4. Fields of Reference
4
Multiparty Network
Political Risk
Negotiation Analysis
Social
Data
Media
Visualization
Analytics

5. Outline
5
1. Definitions, Perspectives, and Watching
2. Futures & Forecasting Methodologies
3. Case Study: Egypt
4. Online Tools: Whither Twitter?
5. Temporal Vision

6. 1. Definitions, Perspectives,& Watching
WHEN I USE A WORD IT
MEANS JUST WHAT I
CHOOSE IT TO MEAN —
NEITHER MORE NOR
LESS.
Humpty Dumpty in Lewis Carroll’s Through
the Looking Glass

7. Four Ways to Manage Info
7
Cultivate
Communica
Information Collect
te
Curate

8. Definitions
8
 Fact: evidence used in report
 Opinion: biased perspective
 Data: quantity, number, sum
 Information: relationships of facts
 Intelligence: organized information

9. Perspective, Parsed
9
Point of
Perch Period Permanence
View
On the Short
Passage
Static or ground
dynamic
Medium
On the hill Phased
Long
Un/restricted
In the air Frequent
Far

10. Engaging Elections
10
Campaigning
Polling Monitoring
Forecasting Analyzing

11. Primary Actors & Key
11
Stakeholders
Voters Observers
Electoral
Parties
Commission
Coalitions Influencers

12. Central to Elections
12
Campaigns
Voters Parties Candidates
Coalitions Supporters
Electoral Interest
Commission Groups
Influencers Media
Observers Civil Society

13. Characteristics and Categories
13
Large, Diverse
Voters
Dynamic, Polarized
Interest
Groups Coalitions
Parties
Discrete, Limited
Media
Candidates
Electoral Commission Observers
Civil Society Political Base

14. 2. Forecasting Methodologies
IT IS HARD TO MAKE
PREDICTIONS,
ESPECIALLY ABOUT THE
FUTURE.
Yogi Berra

15. Phillip K. Dick
15

16. Seven Attitudes Towards Future
16
 Providential: what will be will be
 Conventional: tomorrow will be much like
today
 Pessimism: decline from past ‘Golden Age’
 Discontinuity: the future will be nothing like
the present
 Optimism: faith in progress / technology cures
all
 Unknowable: futile to attempt to go beyond
the present
 Futurist: tempered optimism / the future is rich
with possibility resulting from human planning
and action
Source Prof. Howard F. DidsburyJr

17. Types of Political Risk
17
Governmental Political Governance
Confiscation Uncertainty Challenges
Discriminatory Operating Social
Regulation Restrictions Dynamics

18. How to Make & Falsify
18
Predictions
Probability
Time Range
Impact

19. 3. Case Study: Egypt
IF A MAN WILL BEGIN
WITH CERTAINTIES, HE
SHALL END IN DOUBTS;
BUT IF HE WILL BE
CONTENT TO BEGIN
WITH DOUBTS HE SHALL
END IN CERTAINTIES.
Francis Bacon

20. Time Window Analysis
History Watersheds
Milestones #Jan25 Parliamentary Elections
Past 5 3 Months 1 Month Up to
Run-up
Years prior following Today
20

21. Profile: Historic Milestones
Egyptian Gov’t As Opposition
President MB Threatens
Ongoing to Mubarak,
Obama’s Disruption of
Arrests of MB MB Backed
Cairo Speech Elections
Members by ElBaradei
Past 5 3 Months 1 Month Up to
Run-up
Years prior following Today
21

22. Watersheds pre-Jan25
3 Months 1 Month
Past 5 Up to
prior to following Run-up
Years Today
#Jan25 #Jan25

23. Watersheds post-Jan25
3 Months 1 Month
Past 5 Up to
prior to following Run-up
Years Today
#Jan25 #Jan25

24. Evolution: Political Landscape
Source: Arabist.net 24

25. Change in FJP Composition
Creation of FJP & Before After Elections
Elections
25

26. When to Watch
Mid-April: Candidacy Registration Period Mid to Late June: anticipated elections
26

27. Time-Textured January 2012
Forecast – 6 Weeks Prior
Actual – 4 Weeks During
Revised – 6 Weeks After
27

28. What and How to Watch
Power Transitional Internal Foreign
Sharing Justice Dynamics Relations
Negotiations Amnesty for Brotherhood Trial of NGO
with Salafists generals Youth workers
Approval or
Drafting of Mubarak Coordination
delay of IMF
constitution trial/verdict with FJP
loan
East Asian
Legislation
foreign
passed
investment
28

29. 4. Online Tools: Whither Twitter?
ONCE WE GET OUT OF
THE '80S, THE '90S ARE
GONNA MAKE THE '60S
LOOK LIKE THE '50S.
Dennis Hopper in Flashback

30. Seismic Shift in Intelligence
30
Temporal Indexing of Web Enables Novel
Intelligence

31. Text Is Loaded with Temporal
Signals
31
“North Korea apparently began
pursuing a uranium enrichment Drought and malnutrition hinder next spring’s
program in 1996 at the latest” expansion plans in Kabul...
...In June, officials said the network
encryption was operational
“2012 is the year when China will export “...opposition organizers
more chemicals according to this source” plan to meet on Thursday
to protest...”
“ Dr Sarkar says the new facility will
be operational by March 2014...”
Unstructured text has analytic & predictive power.

32. Using Big Data for Prediction
32
Opportunities Challenges

33. New Tools: Electionista
33
 web app for
monitoring elections
over Twitter across
110 different
countries in 58
languages
 Tweets are
categorized
geographically and
cached so that
users can scroll
back

34. New Tools: WaPo Modifiable Model
34
Uses 3 variables:
 % change in GDP
per capita from Q1
to Q3
 Average Approval in
June, according to
Gallup
 1 incumbent party
candidate is sitting
president, 0 if not
SOURCES: Seth Hill, postdoctoral associate at Yale University; John Sides, associate professor at George Washington University;
Lynn Vavreck, associate professor at UCLA; GRAPHIC: Jeremy Bowers, Emily Chow and Ezra Klein - The Washington Post.

35. New Tools: Google Portal
35

36. New Tools: Google Portal
36

37. New Tools: Yahoo Clues
37
 How people search
 Find most popular
search terms
 Compare trends
between search
terms

38. New Tools: RF & Temporal
Analysis
Search through time Sentiment analysis
Temporal network analysis Temporal source scoring
38

39. Further Research for Twitter
39
Data
 Sentiment analysis of
political tweets
 Automatic detection of
propaganda and
disinformation
 Automatic detection of
sock puppets
 Credibility checking
 Basic research on Twitter
demographics and
automatic profiling of users
with regards to
demographic attributes
 Basic research on user
participation and self-
selection bias

40. 5. Temporal Vision
DISCOVERY CONSISTS
OF SEEING WHAT
EVERYBODY HAS SEEN
AND THINKING WHAT
NOBODY HAS THOUGHT.
Albert Szent-Gyorgyi

41. Temporal Vision
41
Hindsight Insight Foresight
• Reflect & Learn • Observe & Respond • Predict & Prepare
• Staring in Rear-View • Climb Ladder • Nobody is Wrong
Mirror Against Wrong Wall About Future

42. Insight from Big Data
42
 Watch (signal)
 Have expectations about what is being
watched (shift)
 Know how is obscured (blindspot)
 Identify out-of-the-ordinary happenings
(outlier)
 Conceive of fast-moving, far-reaching events
(flashpoints)
 Be able to correlate them with other interesting
observations (pattern)

43. Thank You!
43
E: munish@recordedfuture.com
T: @whypurifly @politicalrisk
L: linkd.in/munish

44. NOBODY IS WRONG
ABOUT THE FUTURE AND
EVERYBODY IS WRONG
ABOUT THE PAST.
Munish Puri