Further exploration of the intersection of our models of time (eg, the futures cone) with chaos theory, complexity theory, images of the future and archetypes, and postnormal times theory.

1. C H A O S
T U R T L E S
D A N C E
C A R D
aka stories and images
of futures, aka
archetypes
C H A O S T U R T L E S
P A R T T W O

2. a little pers onal bac k ground
Sci fi & the strange
Travel as a family value

3. …in the las t epis ode…
Smudging the futures cone
Stories to sensemake turbulence

4. what does
the warped plate of the
pres ent inters ec t?
phase spaces of the pasts and futures

5. A N A N C I E N T F U T U R E S C O N E
( t h e ‘ p e r f u m e o f t i m e ’ v e r s i o n , f r o m m y
p h d d i s s e r t a t i o n , 1 9 9 5 )

6. A F A N TA S T I C A L LY N E W F U T U R E S C O N E
( C h r i s t o p h i l o p o u l o s , “ t h e c o n e s o f
e v e r y t h i n g , ” 2 0 2 1 )

7. P O S T N O R M A L T I M E S … A N I N T E R L U D E
H o w d o w e t r a n s i t p o s t n o r m a l t i m e ?
"Postnormal times was theorised as ‘an in-between period where
old orthodoxies are dying, new ones have yet to be born, and very
few things seem to make sense’. Or, as the Italian journalist, Ezio
Mauro put it in his conversation with the late British sociologist
Zygmunt Bauman, ‘we are hanging between the “no longer” and
the “not yet” and thus we are necessarily unstable’ [Zygmunt Bauman
and Ezio Mauro, Babel, Polity, Xxford, 2016, p 20]. We are thus living in ‘a
transitional age, a time without the confidence that we can return
to any past we have known and with no confidence in any path to
a desirable, attainable or sustainable future’."
[Serra del Pino, Jones, Mayo, “the postnormal perfect storm – part 1. The nature of the crisis”]

8. P O S T N O R M A L T I M E S … A N I N T E R L U D E
H o w d o w e t r a n s i t p o s t n o r m a l t i m e ?
Postnormal times (PNT) are characterized by a context “in
which ‘facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and
decisions urgent’” [Funtowicz and Ravetz, “Science for the post-normal
age,” Futures, 25 (1993), pp. 739-755].
Postnormal times emerge when
increasing Contradictions, Chaos, and Complexity (the 3Cs) in
the system interact and amplify each other – generating
postnormal phenomena. Contradictions, Chaos,
and Complexity themselves emerge and intensify during times
of postnormal change, which is identifiable by its extreme levels
of Speed, Scope, Scale, and Simultaneity (the
4Ss). [See Postnormal Perfect Storm Part 1]

9. I N T R O D U C I N G …
T H E C H A O S T U R T L E S F U T U R E S C O N E
PASTS PRESENTS FUTURES

10. THE CHAOS TURTLES
FUTURES CONE
Filled with evolving attracters, and paths of the
dance of life challenged and adapting, facing
different patterns of turbulence, taking different
adaptive paths, swirling forward through pasts
across the infinite boundary of the present (it is
always the present) into the infinite possibilities of
gently bounded attractors.

11. PASTS PRESENTS FUTURES

12. predictions,
forec as ts ,
s tories
you can’t predict
complex systems in
contexts rocking
between stability &
chaos
you can forecast…

13. you can forecast…
…but the roads of
your trend lines will
drive into a
thickening fog of
uncertainties.
forec as ts

14. … a l l o u r f u t u r e s e n c o m p a s s t h e
i n t e r p l a y o f m y r i a d c h a n g e s …

15. … t h e i r c o l l i s i o n s c r e a t e
t u r b u l e n c e , a n d w e a d a p t ; e a c h
a d a p t a t i o n d r i v e s a d i ff e r e n t
o u t c o m e …

17. danc ing the c haos
we dance turbulence by sensemaking with stories…
…we simplify our dance card by collapsing stories into
archetypes…
…the archetypes are the bounds and shapes of narrative
attractors…
…within their bounds are day-to-day details of lived experience.

18. ARCHETYPES OF FUTURES
archetypes bundle similar scenarios into bounded adjacent phase
space…
…they are attractors…patterns of possible futures we imagine…
…and they also pull our imaginations towards them, attracting
literally
…archetypes as attractors can potentially align actions, which may
either bridge turbulence to stability, or amplify turbulence…

19. IMAGES, STORIES, SONGS,
SCENTS, SENSEMAKING
…we dance turbulence by sensemaking with stories…
…archetypes assist, they help remind us many patterns
of dance are open to us…
…but have they been growing leaner and fewer?

20. INCASTING -
MANOA FOUR FUTURES
Jim Dator; Clem Bezold; Chris Jones

21. • Business as Usual: Continued Growth
Nightmare: Economic Collapse
• Environmental Sustainability
Nightmare: Ecological Collapse
• Ideological Exclusionism
Nightmare: Anarchy (collapse of rule of
law)
• High Tech Transformation
Nightmare: Infrastructure/System Collapse
• Spiritual Transcendence
Nightmare: Anomic Collapse
1. Politico-economic structure;
2. Aspect of life promoted;
3. Goals of the game;
4. Strategy for exploring reality;
5. Root descriptor for reality;
6. Nightmare: opponent
scenario;
7. Concept of change.
INCASTING -
THE LARGER SET

22. BEYOND FOUR FUTURES
TO MORE FUTURES
…efforts exist to expand that simplification…
…we need more story collections of ambient futures…
…we need to balance out our privileging of the stories we
so helpfully facilitate people to create….
who’s collecting stories? who’s doing content analysis?

23. Wendy Schultz,
Nicola George,
“The Natural
England
Scenarios
Compendium, 2nd
edition,” 2011

24. C O M P E T I T I O N :
A M B I E N T I M A G E S O F F U T U R E S
Set of all images of the future:
impossible, possible, probable, preferable
dystopias
visions
scenarios:
downside
scenarios:
PTE
(present trends extended)
scenarios:
upside
utopias
nightmares
Images of the future are present in
religions, political ideologies, art, movies,
television, novels, stories, advertising –
and research

25. G R O W T H
& D E C A Y T H R E A T &
N E W
H O P E S
W A S T E
W O R L D S T H E
P O W E R S
T H A T B E
D I S A R R A Y
I N V E R S I O N
Alessandro Fergnani, Zhaoli Song, “The six scenario archetypes
framework: a systematic investigation of science fiction films set in
the future,” 2020

26. IS IT TIME FOR MORE
SILENT LISTENING?
we facilitate futures-building processes
we progress by publishing analyses
we earn by selling fabricated futures
…past time to meditate on the ambient…
…outliers re-frame questions, add our re-perceiving…
…help avoid stumbles in the chaos dance.

27. What:
Overview of visions of EU citizens
on their future
@Dashboard open to the public
Qualitative: collection of short
personal future stories (24
languages)
Quantitative: dashboard data
results (English)
# OURFUTURES

28. S E A R C H I N G O U T S TO R I E S ,
D E C O L O N I Z I N G A R C H E T Y P E S ,
R E F R A M I N G P E R C E P T I O N S
S E E I N G N E W PAT H S TO D A N C E

29. Expanding the diversity of futures archetypes arguably expands
the possibility of opening up more potential for bridges to
stability.
Mapping how the dance of anticipatory imagination expressed
as potential futures opens paths to new stability presents one
model of how the no-longer-normal and postnormal might
evolve into Sardar’s transnormal, the time and space beyond
postnormal times.
FROM POSTNORMAL
TO TRANSNORMAL?

30. THANK YOU.
Dr. Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures and Jigsaw Foresight
@wendyinfutures | wendy@infinitefutures.com
Senior Fellow, Center for Postnormal Policy and Futures Studies
Fellow, World Futures Studies Federation