Vehicle automation now is a clear trend, but expert opinions differ widely in terms of time scales, technologies, and service concepts. Nevertheless decisions makers on all levels from cities to national government and international organisations need to prepare their responses and develop strategies how to manage the transition period to full automation- the transition that has already started!

1. Vehicle automation - where are we
and should we believe the hype???
Dr. Tom Voege, Policy Analyst
International Transport Forum
ITF Brown Bag Lunch, 16.02.2018

2. Vehicle automation: in popular culture

3. Vehicle automation: some current concepts

4. Vehicle automation: did it start here?

5. Vehicle automation: or did it start here?

6. Vehicle automation: or did it start here?

7. Vehicle automation: or did is start here?

8. Vehicle automation: where it started for me!

9. …so where are we now?
• Vehicle automation is a clear trend
• But there are varying expert opinions on e.g.:
 Projected time scales
 Technology options
 Use cases/ services
• And positive and negative are scenarios possible
• It is therefore necessary for policy makers to
prepare their responses to this development

10. Vehicle automation: a positive view
• Many potential benefits of vehicle automation are
being quoted:
 Improved road safety levels
 Decreased emissions
 Increased network capacity
• Emergence of related mobility services also holds
the promise for even larger benefits:
 For society as a whole
 On the city level

11. Vehicle automation: a negative view
• But at the same time some negative effects could
also be envisaged:
 Network capacity gains leading to induced traffic
 Ability of using travel time more productively leading to
longer trips as people move further away from centres
 This in turn then leads to further urban sprawl
 Potentially huge fleets of empty vehicles running errands and
generating much larger congestion levels
 Wider labour market effects (freight and passenger transport)

12. Vehicle automation: competing players & roles
• Governments investing in R&D & demonstration
of near market-ready systems, showcasing their
ambitions for leadership in this space
• Emerging companies with much stronger IT focus
in technical background and leadership mentality
aggressively pushing into the market
• Vehicle automation thus part of the concepts of:
 Sharing economy
 Disrupting technologies

13. Vehicle automation: government responses
• Policy makers to manage the transition period
• Lock-in benefits while avoiding potential risks
• Key tools are legal and regulatory frameworks
• Often seen as a barrier to wider implementation
• Technology-led discussion often overly optimistic
• But technology mature for variety of use cases
• Leadership from policy makers is thus essential
• Updates to type approval process for vehicles
• Regulation of transport services + labour market

14. Vehicle automation: safety and security issues
• Testing: from simulation, to private track, public
roads with safety driver, and then public roads
• SAE Levels vs. policy vs. customers expectation
• Avoid any brand-specific performance standards
• OEMs to develop specific cyber-security policy
• Broadening regulatory framework (infotainment)
• Considering future scenarios and move towards
new mobility services (fleets) for policy advise

15. Based on key ITF Work on vehicle automation
• Roundtable on “Co-operative Mobility Systems
and Automated Driving“ with Transport Canada
• Roundtable on “Commercial Vehicle On-Board
Safety Systems” with FMCSA of the US DOT
• CPB Project on “Safety and Security on the
Road to Automated Transport”
• CPB Project on “Data-led Governance of Road
Freight Transport - Improving compliance”

16. Closing remark #1: don’t believe the hype!?

17. Closing remark #2: spot the difference!?
1999 2018

18. Closing remark #3: what could go wrong!?

19. Dr. Tom Voege
Policy Analyst
International Transport Forum
Tel: +33 (0) 1 45 24 97 24
Fax: +33 (0) 1 45 24 13 22
tom.voege@itf-oecd.org
www.itf-oecd.org
Thank you for your attention!