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Industry Foresight as a Driver
of Strategic Innovation

Understanding Emerging Trends
for Business Growth




                                 1




                                     1
The Challenge of Foresight




                                                                                2




While it’s impossible to forecast the future, it is possible to make a series of opinions
about the future, and test these opinions against future scenarios that are grounded in
an understanding of emerging and converging industry trends. Without a creative
view of the future, companies are limited by the strategies and opportunities of the
past.




                                                                                            2
What is Industry Foresight?


• Industry Foresight represents a deep understanding
  of the emerging trends, drivers, inhibitors, potential
  dislocations, and emerging opportunities within a
  market, industry or set of converging markets and
  industries

• Organizations that possess Industry Foresight are
  better positioned to establish a strategy that leverages
  future trends – and even helps define them – to create
  a leadership position in the marketplace



                                                             3




                                                                 3
Industry Foresight as a Capability


• Gaining and applying Industry Foresight is a continuous
  activity that requires an organization to:

   • Engage in processes that define an explicit linkage between the
     evolving external environment, potential growth opportunities, and
     business strategies/tactics

   • Create an ongoing capability for tracking and quickly responding to
     positive or potentially detrimental changes in the competitive business
     environment

   • View “Opportunity Planning” as an ongoing process, rather than as an
     annual event, such as “Strategic Planning”)




                                                                           4




                                                                               4
Environmental Forces



                     Market Forces                     Economic Conditions                   Technological Forces
               Specific customer wants and needs,       Macro (GNP, trade, inflation),            Emerging technologies,
                    shopping and distribution            Micro (wages, consumer                 technological infrastructure,
                 preferences, spending habits...       spending), regional variation...        breakthroughs, R&D trends...

                Demographic Patterns                 International Relations                        Competition
                 Aging trends, family/household        Levels of conflict and wars, trade       New competition, industry
                    composition, labor force             and protectionism, monetary          structure, product substitutes,
                  composition, immigration...           systems and exchange rates...            alliances, acquisitions...


               Social/Lifestyle Factors               Political & Regulatory                  Value Chain Factors
               Consumer values, psychographic         Geopolitical trends, policy shifts,      Supply chains, logistics,
                profiles, education levels, social     government projects, deficits,        emerging distribution channels,
                    issues, lifestyle trends...      emerging policies and regulations...        key differentiators...


                Physical Environment                    Natural Resources                            Wild Cards
                Air/water/land pollution trends,       Energy prices and availability,      Surprise forces with major impact,
               environmental protection trends,           raw materials supplies,            lower probability but significant
                   global warming effects...             resource usage trends...                   consequences...




                                                                                                                                 5




The world of meteorology provides a compelling analogy. The ongoing monitoring of
a complex, intertwined set of environmental forces allows us to forecast how they may
collide to impact our lives in terms of the weather.


Similarly, visionary organizations establish a process for monitoring the complex
interplay of trends that may potentially impact their business.
While it’s not possible or necessary to rigorously monitor the entire spectrum of
business drivers trends, it is essential to develop an awareness of the key forces that
could impact your industry. Doing so enables an organization both to avert threats to
the existing business and to identify potential market opportunities that may arise
when industry trends converge. Equally critical is creating the capability and a
mechanism for tracking trends, and building this intelligence into the ongoing strategic
planning and corporate development processes.




                                                                                                                                     5
Monitoring Industry Shifts through Triggers


          • A “trigger” is an external event that represents an early
            warning signal – an indicator that the environment is
            shifting and that new strategies may be required to
            achieve (or maintain) competitive advantage
               • May involve specific events (e.g., Competitive consolidation – IBM
                 purchases PriceWaterhouseCoopers)
               • May involve measurable thresholds (e.g., half of all US households
                 have DVD players)
               • Some triggers may be company specific (e.g., an increase in orders
                 of a specific product) while others may be visible to the world (e.g.,
                 new or anticipated government regulations)




                                                                                      6




By building a capability to monitor “triggers” that have direct significance to one’s own
organization, markets, customers, and industry, it becomes possible to more quickly
adapt and respond to shifts in the external environment.




                                                                                            6
Who are the Thought Leaders in your Industry?


         • By tapping the knowledge of industry Thoughts
           Leaders, it becomes possible to develop a set of future
           scenarios from the very people who are driving the
           future
            •   Company Executives               •   Government Advisors
            •   Industry Analysts                •   Expert Witnesses
            •   Industry Observers and Writers   •   Board Members
            •   Think Tanks and Visionaries      •   Consultants
            •   Educators/Academics              •   “Cultural Creatives”




                                                                            7




Thought Leaders are the best source of Industry Foresight. There are several ways to
involve them. These include: interviews, surveys, modified focus groups and “Thought
Leader Panels”.


While one approach is to meet with Thought Leaders on a one-at-a-time basis, a far
more powerful method is to orchestrate interactions between them in a managed
forum. Successfully managing the synergy between Thought Leaders is where
breakthrough opportunities are often identified.




                                                                                       7
Strategic Innovation: Key Elements


         • Strategic
           Innovation is                 Industry Foresight                      Customer Insight
           created at the                • Non-traditional                       • Non-traditional
           intersection of                 foresight techniques                    customer
                                           reveal emerging trends                  engagement
           Industry Foresight,             and drive speculation                   techniques reveal
           Customer Insight                around alternative                      unarticulated
                                           futures and disruptive                  insights
           and Strategic                   opportunities             Strategic
           Alignment                                                Innovation



                                                            Strategic Alignment
                                                          • Cross-functional
                                                            understanding of emerging
                                                            trends, customer needs and
                                                            potential opportunities
                                                          • Alignment around strategic
                                                            direction & implementation
                                                            requirements


                                                                                                       8




•Industry Foresight is one of three core elements within a holistic approach to opportunity
planning.

•Traditional strategy development is limited -- and often delivers uninspired, incremental results.


•Conversely, Strategic Innovation is created at the intersection of Industry Foresight, Customer
Insight and Strategic Alignment.




                                                                                                           8
Framework for Strategic Innovation

                           Value Drivers                                                                     New
                         (external perspectives)                                                           Strategies

                           Industry Foresight
                             Future-oriented                                                                  New
                            Success Factors                                                            Products & Services

                           Customer Insight
                            Articulated &                                                                    New
                          Unarticulated Needs               Managed Innovation Process                  Business Models
                                                            • Strategic Alignment
                                                                                                             New
                                                            • New Insights &
                    Organizational Drivers                    Understanding                  New            Markets
                    (internal capabilities & limitations)                                    Revenue
                                                            • Opportunity Identification,    Streams
                                                              Prioritization & Development                    New
                           Core Technologies                                                              Relationships
                            & Competencies                  • Implementation Planning

                                                                                                             New
                   Organizational        Disciplined                                                   Business Practices
                    Readiness          Implementation

                                                                                                          Sustainable
                                                                                                           Innovation

                                                                                                                      9




• Strategic Innovation is “a future-focused business development framework that identifies breakthrough
  growth opportunities with measurable impact, both in the near-term and longer-term, and defines the supporting
  decisions and actions to achieve a compelling business vision”.
• Combining creative, non-traditional approaches with conventional consulting models, the Strategic Innovation
  framework inspires cross-functional teams to identify new revenue streams, to create breakthrough growth
  strategies, to define innovative new products, services and business models, to stimulate new business
  relationships and to rethink current business practices.
• Strategic Innovation is driven by a Managed Innovation Process that orchestrates the interplay between a
  company’s External Value Drivers and its Internal Organizational Drivers. External Value Drivers include
  Industry Foresight and Customer Insight, while Internal Organizational Drivers include Core
  Technologies & Competencies.
    •   Industry Foresight provides a “top-down” perspective, an understanding of the complex forces driving
        change in the industry, including emerging/converging trends, competitive strategies, potential
        dislocations.
    •   Customer Insight provides a “bottom-up” perspective, a deep understanding of both the articulated
        (stated) and unarticulated (latent) needs of existing and potential customers.
    •   Core Competencies and Technologies assesses “internal capabilities”, taking a hard look at
        organizational competencies and assets that can be leveraged to deliver value to customers, including
        technologies, intellectual property and strategic relationships.
• The managed innovation process weaves together these three elements, incorporating them with its
  Organizational Readiness to act and the degree to which it exhibits Disciplined Implementation. Strategic
  Alignment galvanizes an organization around shared goals and builds stakeholder support.
• To succeed in the long term, it is necessary to move beyond a purely ad hoc or unstructured approach to
  innovation, and to create a platform for Sustainable Innovation.




                                                                                                                             9
“The best way to predict
the future is to invent it.”

               Alan Kay
               Fellow, Apple Computer




                                        10




                                             10
InnovationPoint LLC
                                           510.428.1644
                                           Info@innovation-point.com
                                           http://www.innovation-point.com




                                                                             11




Thank you for your interest. We invite you to contact us to explore how our unique
approach to strategy innovation might be applied to your high priority business needs.




                                                                                         11

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Industry foresight

  • 1. Industry Foresight as a Driver of Strategic Innovation Understanding Emerging Trends for Business Growth 1 1
  • 2. The Challenge of Foresight 2 While it’s impossible to forecast the future, it is possible to make a series of opinions about the future, and test these opinions against future scenarios that are grounded in an understanding of emerging and converging industry trends. Without a creative view of the future, companies are limited by the strategies and opportunities of the past. 2
  • 3. What is Industry Foresight? • Industry Foresight represents a deep understanding of the emerging trends, drivers, inhibitors, potential dislocations, and emerging opportunities within a market, industry or set of converging markets and industries • Organizations that possess Industry Foresight are better positioned to establish a strategy that leverages future trends – and even helps define them – to create a leadership position in the marketplace 3 3
  • 4. Industry Foresight as a Capability • Gaining and applying Industry Foresight is a continuous activity that requires an organization to: • Engage in processes that define an explicit linkage between the evolving external environment, potential growth opportunities, and business strategies/tactics • Create an ongoing capability for tracking and quickly responding to positive or potentially detrimental changes in the competitive business environment • View “Opportunity Planning” as an ongoing process, rather than as an annual event, such as “Strategic Planning”) 4 4
  • 5. Environmental Forces Market Forces Economic Conditions Technological Forces Specific customer wants and needs, Macro (GNP, trade, inflation), Emerging technologies, shopping and distribution Micro (wages, consumer technological infrastructure, preferences, spending habits... spending), regional variation... breakthroughs, R&D trends... Demographic Patterns International Relations Competition Aging trends, family/household Levels of conflict and wars, trade New competition, industry composition, labor force and protectionism, monetary structure, product substitutes, composition, immigration... systems and exchange rates... alliances, acquisitions... Social/Lifestyle Factors Political & Regulatory Value Chain Factors Consumer values, psychographic Geopolitical trends, policy shifts, Supply chains, logistics, profiles, education levels, social government projects, deficits, emerging distribution channels, issues, lifestyle trends... emerging policies and regulations... key differentiators... Physical Environment Natural Resources Wild Cards Air/water/land pollution trends, Energy prices and availability, Surprise forces with major impact, environmental protection trends, raw materials supplies, lower probability but significant global warming effects... resource usage trends... consequences... 5 The world of meteorology provides a compelling analogy. The ongoing monitoring of a complex, intertwined set of environmental forces allows us to forecast how they may collide to impact our lives in terms of the weather. Similarly, visionary organizations establish a process for monitoring the complex interplay of trends that may potentially impact their business. While it’s not possible or necessary to rigorously monitor the entire spectrum of business drivers trends, it is essential to develop an awareness of the key forces that could impact your industry. Doing so enables an organization both to avert threats to the existing business and to identify potential market opportunities that may arise when industry trends converge. Equally critical is creating the capability and a mechanism for tracking trends, and building this intelligence into the ongoing strategic planning and corporate development processes. 5
  • 6. Monitoring Industry Shifts through Triggers • A “trigger” is an external event that represents an early warning signal – an indicator that the environment is shifting and that new strategies may be required to achieve (or maintain) competitive advantage • May involve specific events (e.g., Competitive consolidation – IBM purchases PriceWaterhouseCoopers) • May involve measurable thresholds (e.g., half of all US households have DVD players) • Some triggers may be company specific (e.g., an increase in orders of a specific product) while others may be visible to the world (e.g., new or anticipated government regulations) 6 By building a capability to monitor “triggers” that have direct significance to one’s own organization, markets, customers, and industry, it becomes possible to more quickly adapt and respond to shifts in the external environment. 6
  • 7. Who are the Thought Leaders in your Industry? • By tapping the knowledge of industry Thoughts Leaders, it becomes possible to develop a set of future scenarios from the very people who are driving the future • Company Executives • Government Advisors • Industry Analysts • Expert Witnesses • Industry Observers and Writers • Board Members • Think Tanks and Visionaries • Consultants • Educators/Academics • “Cultural Creatives” 7 Thought Leaders are the best source of Industry Foresight. There are several ways to involve them. These include: interviews, surveys, modified focus groups and “Thought Leader Panels”. While one approach is to meet with Thought Leaders on a one-at-a-time basis, a far more powerful method is to orchestrate interactions between them in a managed forum. Successfully managing the synergy between Thought Leaders is where breakthrough opportunities are often identified. 7
  • 8. Strategic Innovation: Key Elements • Strategic Innovation is Industry Foresight Customer Insight created at the • Non-traditional • Non-traditional intersection of foresight techniques customer reveal emerging trends engagement Industry Foresight, and drive speculation techniques reveal Customer Insight around alternative unarticulated futures and disruptive insights and Strategic opportunities Strategic Alignment Innovation Strategic Alignment • Cross-functional understanding of emerging trends, customer needs and potential opportunities • Alignment around strategic direction & implementation requirements 8 •Industry Foresight is one of three core elements within a holistic approach to opportunity planning. •Traditional strategy development is limited -- and often delivers uninspired, incremental results. •Conversely, Strategic Innovation is created at the intersection of Industry Foresight, Customer Insight and Strategic Alignment. 8
  • 9. Framework for Strategic Innovation Value Drivers New (external perspectives) Strategies Industry Foresight Future-oriented New Success Factors Products & Services Customer Insight Articulated & New Unarticulated Needs Managed Innovation Process Business Models • Strategic Alignment New • New Insights & Organizational Drivers Understanding New Markets (internal capabilities & limitations) Revenue • Opportunity Identification, Streams Prioritization & Development New Core Technologies Relationships & Competencies • Implementation Planning New Organizational Disciplined Business Practices Readiness Implementation Sustainable Innovation 9 • Strategic Innovation is “a future-focused business development framework that identifies breakthrough growth opportunities with measurable impact, both in the near-term and longer-term, and defines the supporting decisions and actions to achieve a compelling business vision”. • Combining creative, non-traditional approaches with conventional consulting models, the Strategic Innovation framework inspires cross-functional teams to identify new revenue streams, to create breakthrough growth strategies, to define innovative new products, services and business models, to stimulate new business relationships and to rethink current business practices. • Strategic Innovation is driven by a Managed Innovation Process that orchestrates the interplay between a company’s External Value Drivers and its Internal Organizational Drivers. External Value Drivers include Industry Foresight and Customer Insight, while Internal Organizational Drivers include Core Technologies & Competencies. • Industry Foresight provides a “top-down” perspective, an understanding of the complex forces driving change in the industry, including emerging/converging trends, competitive strategies, potential dislocations. • Customer Insight provides a “bottom-up” perspective, a deep understanding of both the articulated (stated) and unarticulated (latent) needs of existing and potential customers. • Core Competencies and Technologies assesses “internal capabilities”, taking a hard look at organizational competencies and assets that can be leveraged to deliver value to customers, including technologies, intellectual property and strategic relationships. • The managed innovation process weaves together these three elements, incorporating them with its Organizational Readiness to act and the degree to which it exhibits Disciplined Implementation. Strategic Alignment galvanizes an organization around shared goals and builds stakeholder support. • To succeed in the long term, it is necessary to move beyond a purely ad hoc or unstructured approach to innovation, and to create a platform for Sustainable Innovation. 9
  • 10. “The best way to predict the future is to invent it.” Alan Kay Fellow, Apple Computer 10 10
  • 11. InnovationPoint LLC 510.428.1644 Info@innovation-point.com http://www.innovation-point.com 11 Thank you for your interest. We invite you to contact us to explore how our unique approach to strategy innovation might be applied to your high priority business needs. 11