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the futures of business

The dung-beetle‟s tale
systems-thinking, complexity and the real world
Tom Graves, Tetradian Consulting
Integrated EA Conference, London, March 2014
A question…

Why is it
that the simple
don‟t stay simple?
Or, more to the point…

What can
we do about it?
Back in the old days,
it had all seemed so simple…

we‟d join the armed-forces
for the comradeship
the glamour
the glory…
pride and prestige…

CC-BY-NC-ND jhardy1 via Flickr
high expectations…

CC-BY-NC-SA drakegoodman via Flickr
but then the muddy reality…

CC-BY-NC-SA drakegoodman via Flickr
and kit that didn‟t work so good…

CC-BY-NC-SA drakegoodman via Flickr
Move forward a century…

We‟d join the armed-forces
for the comradeship
the glamour
the glory…
the pride and prestige…

CC-BY-NC-ND 762_photo via Flickr
high expectations…

CC-BY-NC-ND panationalguard via Flickr
but the
grimy reality…
CC-BY-NC simonlongworth via Flickr
kit that
works in
worrying
ways…

CC-BY abaporu via Flickr
and mud…

CC-BY-NC simonlongworth via Flickr
more mud…

CC-BY-NC VAGuardPAO via Flickr
and yet more mud…

CC-BY 1-25-sbct via Flickr
What happened?
(or didn‟t happen, maybe?)
We want it to be simple…
…yet it always turns out
to be complex
– horribly complex…
So what can
we do about it?
How can we
control it?
It seems that every attempt
to control the complexity
makes it more complex.
It may seem like every attempt
to control the complexity
makes it more complex.
Beyond a certain point,
it may seem like every attempt
to control the complexity
makes it more complex.
Beyond a not-so-certain point,
it may seem like every attempt
to control the complexity
makes it more complex.
Subject to certain provisos,
beyond a not-so-certain point
it may seem like every attempt
to control the complexity
makes it more complex.
Subject to certain provisos
and special-cases,
beyond a not-so-certain point
it may seem like every attempt
to control the complexity
makes it more complex.
Sometimes,
subject to certain provisos
and special-cases,
beyond a not-so-certain point
it may seem like every attempt
to control the complexity
makes it more complex.
Sometimes,
subject to certain provisos
and special-cases,
and in unpredictable ways,
beyond a not-so-certain point
it may seem like every attempt
to control the complexity
makes it more complex.
WAAAAHHH!!!
Ahem…
Let‟s, uh, start again…
with a pattern,
a map,
and a guide…
It‟s a very pretty pattern
in various different forms…
fractals…

CC-BY-NC-SA felix42 Flickr
fractals…

CC-BY-NC-ND nakluza via Flickr
fractals…

CC-BY fdecomite via Flickr
(it‟s called fractal recursion,
but we‟ll talk about that later)
The map likewise has
a nice pretty background…
(pretty background)
with two axis-lines
that don‟t do very much…
(two axis-lines)
before

NOW!
certain

uncertain
two boundary-conditions
that move around a bit…
(two boundary-conditions)
before

NOW!
certain

uncertain
and four edge-conditions
(sort-of)
(sometimes)
(it‟s kinda complex…)
(four edge-transitions)
before

edge of
uncertainty

edge of
action

edge of
innovation

edge of
panic

NOW!
certain

uncertain
(we‟ll talk about all that later, too)
And our guide…
(who isn‟t pretty…)

…is a scarab.
not this kind of Scarab…
(sorry…)
source not known
not this kind of Scarab…
(not-quite-so-sorry…?)
CC-BY-NDhesterjenna via Flickr
it‟s this Scarab…
(genus Scarabaeidae…)

(aka dung-beetle…)
CC-BY-NC-ND cottonm via Flickr
optional
camouflage

lightweight
armour

all-terrain
transmission

autonomous
missioncontrol

sensor pack

(you could think of it
in military terms,
if you like…)
CC-BY-NC-ND cottonm via Flickr
all shapes and sizes…

CC-BY-NC-ND scotproof via Flickr
all shapes and sizes…

(engineers regiment heavy lift unit?)
CC-BY jkirkhart35 via Flickr
all shapes and sizes

(American dung-beetle)
(bigger and shinier than most)
(of course?)

CC-BY-NC baggis ores2k via Flickr
For most of the time,
life is kinda simple
for our tiny scarab…
By the way…
before

we‟d typically
place „Simple’
in this region of
our map

(we‟ll see
why, soon)

NOW!
certain

uncertain
it finds a nice pile of dung…

CC-BY-NC-SA isaachsieh via Flickr
makes some of it into a ball…
CC-BY-NC-ND lowfatbrains via Flickr
then rolls it home…

CC-BY-NC-ND wisse via Flickr
and comes back for more…

CC-BY-NC-SA marshall-mayer via Flickr
(maybe meet up with a few of the guys
down at the bar…?)
CC-BY Happy Days Photo and Art via Flickr
And then does it all again…
and again…
and again…
and again…

CC-BY-NC-SA isaachsieh via Flickr
Simple.
“Follow the work-instructions”…
that kind of thing, really…
(it doesn‟t need to think about it…

it just does it…
…which is why we say this is
„Simple‟)
(though some
of that „Simple‟
is pretty clever,
actually…)
Overall, it‟s another pattern:

• sense
• make-sense
• decide
• act
(rinse-and-repeat, indefinitely,
at every required level)
(yep – another kind of fractal-recursion…)
When its Simple doesn‟t work
for some level or context…
our beetle has to stop
and think for a bit.
It‟s kinda Complicated…
(for a beetle, anyway…)
On the map…
before

(this axis represents „time available
for sensemaking and decision-making‟
before we must take action)

„Simple’
NOW!
certain

uncertain
On the map…
before

we‟d place
„Complicated’
in this region of
our map

(because it‟s distant
in time from the
„NOW!‟ of action)

(this axis represents „time available
for sensemaking and decision-making‟
before we must take action)

NOW!
certain

uncertain
On the map…
before

„Complicated’

(this axis represents „time available
for sensemaking and decision-making‟
before we must take action)
(for „Simple’, time-tostop-and-think is a
luxury we don‟t have…)
NOW!
certain

uncertain
Our beetle formulates a plan…

(See beetle. See beetle stop and think…)
CC-BY-NC-ND scotproof via Flickr
Plan versus action
before

„Complicated’

PLAN
edge of
action

ACTION
„Simple’
NOW!
certain

uncertain
“No plan survives first contact
with the enemy”
Plan and action
before

„Complicated’

rules

(we need feedback
loops between plan
and action)

PLAN
realities

ACTION
„Simple’
NOW!
certain

uncertain
Theory and practice
before

„Complicated’

THEORY
edge of
action

PRACTICE
„Simple’
NOW!
certain

uncertain
Theory and practice
before

THEORY
What we plan to do, in the expected conditions

What we actually do, in the actual conditions

PRACTICE
NOW!
certain

uncertain
Theory and practice
before

“In THEORY,
there‟s no difference
between theory
and practice…
…in PRACTICE,
there is!”
NOW!
certain

uncertain
Where‟s the complexity?
Not much on the surface,
it might seem…
(unless IT complicates things?)
(before IT…)

CC-BY-NC arnolouise via Flickr
(after IT?)

CC-BY vintagedept via Flickr
But there‟s a catch…
(‟cos there‟s always a catch…)

…which is where complexity
does come into the picture.
It‟s about dependencies…
Our beetle depends on dung.
(and the right kind of dung, at that…)

CC-BY-NC-SA isaachsieh via Flickr
It depends
on
the right
animal…

CC-BY alois_staudacher via Flickr
to make that dung.

CC-BY-NC-SA isaachsieh via Flickr
It depends
on the
right feed…
CC-BY-NC-ND paperpariah via Flickr
for
the right
animal…

CC-BY alois_staudacher via Flickr
to make that dung.

CC-BY-NC-SA isaachsieh via Flickr
And it depends on
the right ecosystem…
CC-BY-NC-SA j33pman via Flickr
for the
right feed…
CC-BY-NC-ND paperpariah via Flickr
for
the right
animal…

CC-BY alois_staudacher via Flickr
to make that dung.

CC-BY-NC-SA isaachsieh via Flickr
But if these guys

decide to diversify…
CC-BY-NC cannykev via Flickr
into goatburgers…
CC-BY ramnagant via Flickr
it could be bye-bye
to the ecosystem…

CC-BY wonker via Flickr
and all too soon, maybe,
bye-bye to anything else…

CC-BY-NC-ND oxfam via Flickr
Which is bad news for
our dung-beetle, because…

CC-BY-NC-SA marshall-mayer via Flickr
the right
kind of
animal…

CC-BY alois_staudacher via Flickr
…makes the right kind of dung

CC-BY-NC-SA isaachsieh via Flickr
but the
wrong kind
of animal…
CC-BY ramnagant via Flickr
…makes the wrong kind of dung.

CC-BY robertnyman via Flickr
No right dung anywhere in range
equals no dung-beetle.

Oops…
CC-BY-NC-SA marshall-mayer via Flickr
What can
our poor dung-beetle
do?!?
How can it
take control
of all of this?!?
it‟s not this kind of Scarab…
source not known
it‟s only this kind of scarab…

CC-BY-NC-ND djbones via Flickr
so it can‟t demolish
McDonalds…

(sorry…)

CC-BY-NC-SA raster via Flickr
If it were human,
it might try to plot out
all of the variables
and interdependencies
in a systems-map…
systems-relationship map
…which, yes, does work…
(sort-of…)
(sometimes…)
(it‟s kinda complicated…)
But even a dung-beetle
would soon discover
there are very real limits
to the usefulness
of that type of Complicated.
which leaves our poor beetle
kinda lost in the desert…
CC-BY-NC-ND firesika via Flickr
Where‟s a good map
when you need one?!?
How‟s about this map?
before

NOW!
certain

uncertain
We‟ve noted its vertical-axis…
before

(represents „time available for
sensemaking and decision-making‟
before we must take action)

NOW!
certain

uncertain
…let‟s look at its horizontal-axis
before

(represents an arbitrary spectrum
from „absolute-sameness‟ [left-side]
to „absolute-difference‟ [right-side])

NOW!
certain

uncertain
A bunch of similar scales…
sameness

uniqueness

high-probability
standardised

low-probability
customised

high-dependability
reusability
low rate of change

unique

low-dependability
bespoke
high rate of change
What, no numbers?
before

by intent, there are no numbers
on either axis…
it‟s to map criteria for tactics
– relationships, not „absolutes‟
NOW!
certain

uncertain
We don‟t need no steenkin‟
numbers!
(but we do need options for varying tactics…)

CC-BY-NC-SA isaachsieh via Flickr
The Simple
(or Complicated)
would prefer to try
to „take control‟
of everything…

but…
…„control‟ won‟t work
on everything…
Take control! Impose order!
“Insanity
is doing
the same thing
and expecting
different results”
(Albert Einstein)

ORDER
(IT-type rules do work here)
certain

uncertain
Order and unorder
“Insanity
is doing
the same thing
and expecting
different results”

edge of
uncertainty

“Insanity
is doing
the same thing
and expecting
the same results”

(Albert Einstein)

(not Albert Einstein)

ORDER

UNORDER

(IT-type rules do work here)

(IT-type rules don‟t work here)

certain

uncertain
Same and different
A quest for certainty:
analysis, algorithms,
identicality, efficiency,
business-rule engines,
executable models,
Six Sigma...

An acceptance of
uncertainty:
experiment, patterns,
probabilities, „designthinking‟, unstructured
process...

SAMENESS

UNIQUENESS

(IT-systems do work
well here)

(IT-systems don‟t work
well here)

certain

uncertain
Why skills are needed…
What is always going to be
uncertain or unique?

What will always be „messy’?
(„Messy‟ – politics, management, wickedproblems, „should‟ vs „is‟, etc.)

Wherever these occur,
we‟re going to need human skill…
Certain and uncertain
before

questions

„Complicated’
(ANALYSE)

edge of
uncertainty

„Ambiguous’
(EXPERIMENT)

answers

(we need feedback
loops between analysis
and experimentation)

NOW!
certain

uncertain
Complexity
includes themes such as
wicked-problems
Tame- and wicked-problems
• definable formulation
• static „solution‟
• clear end-point
• solution is true/false
• each essentially same
• finite dependency

• no defined formulation
• dynamic „re-solution‟
• no clear end-point
• solution is good/bad
• essentially unique
• infinite dependency

‘TAME’

‘WICKED’

(„control‟ can work here)

(„control‟ can‟t work here)

certain

uncertain
Terms such as
„complexity science‟
may unintentionally mislead:
physical-sciences apply
mostly in the „tame‟-space…

most „complexity-science‟
applies in the „wicked‟-space.
Use the right models
for each domain...
don’t mix them up!
Complexity
also includes
unintended-consequences
(a classic driver for wicked-problems…)
INTENDED CONSEQUENCE

CC-BY soldiersmediacenter via Flickr

“engage hearts and minds…”
UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCE

CC-BY soldiersmediacenter via Flickr

“how to get kids killed…”
Think VUCA:

• Volatile
• Uncertain
• Complex
• Ambiguous
Where to map complexity?
„Complicated’

„COMPLEX’

some people might place
Complexity in just one domain

„Simple’

„Chaotic’
Where to map complexity?
before

„Complicated’

„Ambiguous’

yet in reality,
Complexity is everywhere!

„Simple’

„Not-known’

NOW!
certain

uncertain
Many meanings of
‘Complexity’…
(and of „Chaos‟ or „Chaotic‟, too)

– we need to embrace them all
(not make the Simplistic assertion
that only one kind is „the real complexity‟…)
Complexity: they‟re both right…
Roger Sessions:

John Seddon:

“eliminate
complexity!”

“embrace
complexity!”

(Simple Iterative
Partitions; Snowman)

(Vanguard Method;
„failure-demand‟)

SAMENESS

UNIQUENESS

(most IT-type models
do work well for this)

(most IT-type models
don‟t work well for this)

certain

uncertain
They‟re both right, because
of fractal recursion…
- a point we can illustrate via Mandelbrot…
not this kind of Mandel Brot…

CC-BY-NC squeakychu via Flickr
this kind of Mandelbrot…

CC-BY-NC-SA Michael-Maclean via Flickr
fern

CC-BY-NC-SA gjshepherd via Flickr
fractal recursion…

CC-BY-NC somersetbob via Flickr
self-similarity at every scale…

CC-BY-NC somersetbob via Flickr
self-similarity at every scale…

CC-BY-NC catdancing via Flickr
always similar, yet always different…

CC-BY usfwsnortheast via Flickr
every point expresses the pattern…

every point describes every other point…
CC-BY-NC-SA sharman via Flickr
Fractal recursion means that
every point includes its own:
• Simple
• Complicated
• Ambiguous („Complex‟)
• Not-known („Chaotic‟)
NOTE:
„self-similar‟ is not the same as
„the same‟…
„high-probability‟ does not mean
„will always happen‟…
„low-probability‟ does not mean
„will never happen‟…
Use the right tactics
for each domain...
don’t mix them up!
But the beetle says…

“it‟s too easy to hide in theory here…”
CC-BY-NC-ND scotproof via Flickr
At some point
we need to stop theorising
(or hypothesising – to be pedantic)

and get back in touch with
the real-world, in real-time…
- down into the „Not-known‟…
or, colloquially…

CC-BY-NC-SA Tom Graves
Back to the real-world again…
before

„Complicated’

(exploration, improvisation and
invention all happen here)

„Simple’

„Ambiguous’

edge of
innovation

„Not-known’

NOW!
certain

uncertain
Here, even a dung-beetle…

CC-BY-NC-ND kishlc via Flickr
can learn how to fly!

CC-BY-NC-ND kishlc via Flickr
All invention
– everything ‘new’ –
at first appears here,
in the Not-known…
invention…

CC-BY-NC-ND nuwandalice via Flickr
invention…

CC-BY-NC-ND Science Museum via Flickr
invention by Emett…

BY David Sweeney via YouTube
invention by Emett…

BY David Sweeney via YouTube
invention…

CC-BY-NC-ND European Patent Office via Flickr
invention…

CC-BY-SA thebakkenmuseum via Flickr
inventions that haven‟t happened yet…?

CC-BY OpenPlaques via Flickr
Idea and hypothesis
before

„Ambiguous’
(EXPERIMENT)

hypothesis
principles

edge of
innovation

news
(we need feedback
loops between idea
and hypothesis)

‘the new’
„Not-known’
(EXPLORE)

NOW!
certain

uncertain
Where do new
ideas come from?

“Accept the burden
of uncertainty…
be comfortable
with being
uncomfortable.”

CC-BY-NC-SA grrrl via Flickr
Where do new
ideas come from?

“I can tell you things
all day long, but you
have to put your ass
in the seat to really
learn.”

CC-BY-NC USArmyEurope via Flickr
We also come at this
from the other direction
- over from the Simple,
in real-time action,
across the edge of panic…
Across the edge of panic
before

„Simple’
(ENACT)

edge of
panic

„Not-known’
(EXPLORE)

NOW!
certain

uncertain
CC-BY-SA lumachrome via Flickr

The Rules.
(Everything You Need To Know For Your Job)
routine…

© Orange County Flight Center via atulgawande.com
HUH?

the real-world don‟t match the rules??
WAAAAHHH!!!
…which is why there‟s
the other side
to that checklist…

- to keep the panic at bay…
emergency…

© Orange County Flight Center via atulgawande.com
Key items
that users
may forget
in panic…
FLY THE
AIRPLANE

© Orange County Flight Center via atulgawande.com
The other learning-loop…
before

(we need real-time
feedback loops
between certainty and
uncertainty)

fears

„Simple’
(ACTION)

edge of
panic

„Not-known’
(EXPLORE)

options
NOW!
certain

uncertain
That feedback-loop
across the edge of panic
is where, and how,
on-the-spot answers arise
out there in the field…
strange yet useful
innovations…

CC-BY-NC simonlongworth via Flickr
pragmatic
answers to
in-the-field needs…
CC-BY-NC simonlongworth via Flickr
refusing to face the uncertainty
is what strands us here…
CC-BY-SA afiler via Flickr
It‟s almost time
to wrap up this tale…
Making sense of complexity

Use context-maps such as SCAN
to identify
what may or must change
what is or is not certain
how these vary over time
and what to do with each
Linking it all together
before

questions

„Complicated’

edge of
uncertainty

(ANALYSE)

„Ambiguous’
(EXPERIMENT)

answers
rules

edge of
action

„Simple’
(ENACT)

realitie
s

principles

edge of
innovation

news

fears
edge of
panic

„Not-known’
(EXPLORE)

options
NOW!
certain

uncertain
Common themes in each domain
before

order

unorder

COMPLICATED

AMBIGUOUS

(analyse)

(experiment)

reciprocation
resonance
(algorithms)

recursion
reflexion
(patterns, guidelines)

SIMPLE

plan
actual

NOT-KNOWN

(enact)

(explore)

regulation
rotation
(rules)

reframe
rich-randomness
(principles)

NOW!
certain

uncertain
Remember that it‟s recursive
before

C
C
C
NOW!

S
certain

A

S

N

S

A
A

N

N
uncertain
A surgical example…
before

patient identity

patient
condition

theatre
booking
equipment
plan
verify identity

surgery plan

surgical-staff
availability

consumables
action-records

family
behaviour
pre-op
complications

change of
emergency
theatre-availability
action

NOW!
certain

uncertain
A surgical example…
before

patient identity
theatre
booking
equipment
plan

we need to be certain
about all of these

verify identity
consumables
action-records
NOW!
certain

uncertain
A surgical example…
before

patient
condition
we expect
(and plan for)
uncertainty
about these

surgery plan

surgical-staff
availability
change of
theatre-availability

NOW!
certain

uncertain
A surgical example…
before

we don‟t expect
these to happen,
but we need
contingency-plans
and guiding-principles
for all of them

family
behaviour
pre-op
complications

emergency
action
NOW!
certain

uncertain
But to let our brave dung-beetle
have the last words…

always remember…
CC-BY-NC-ND wisse via Flickr
in ancient Egypt…

the scarab rolled the sun along its course…
CC-BY isawnyu via Flickr
a helpmate and advisor to the gods…
CC-BY-NC-SA theheartindifferentkeys via Flickr
and even in the present-day…
CC-BY-SA swanksalot via Flickr
dung-beetles have right of way…

CC-BY-NC-SA arthur_chapman via Flickr
Something to
think about,
perhaps?

CC-BY-ND-SA ores2k via Flickr
“What’s the
Thank you!
Further information:
Contact:

Tom Graves

Company:

Tetradian Consulting

Email:

tom@tetradian.com

Twitter:

@tetradian ( http://twitter.com/tetradian )

Weblog:

http://weblog.tetradian.com

Slidedecks:

http://www.slideshare.net/tetradian

Publications: http://tetradianbooks.com
Books:

• The enterprise as story: the role of narrative in enterprisearchitecture (2012)
• Mapping the enterprise: modelling the enterprise as services
with the Enterprise Canvas (2010)
• Everyday enterprise-architecture: sensemaking, strategy,
structures and solutions (2010)
• Doing enterprise-architecture: process and practice in the
real enterprise (2009)

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