Slidedeck for Integrated-EA conference, February 2014.
(It's a conference on enterprise-architecture in the Defence context, hence a somewhat military flavour and various military in-jokes.)
IIBA® Melbourne - Navigating Business Analysis - Excellence for Career Growth...
The dung-beetle's tale: systems-thinking, complexity and the real-world
1. the futures of business
The dung-beetle‟s tale
systems-thinking, complexity and the real world
Tom Graves, Tetradian Consulting
Integrated EA Conference, London, March 2014
21. It seems that every attempt
to control the complexity
makes it more complex.
22. It may seem like every attempt
to control the complexity
makes it more complex.
23. Beyond a certain point,
it may seem like every attempt
to control the complexity
makes it more complex.
24. Beyond a not-so-certain point,
it may seem like every attempt
to control the complexity
makes it more complex.
25. Subject to certain provisos,
beyond a not-so-certain point
it may seem like every attempt
to control the complexity
makes it more complex.
26. Subject to certain provisos
and special-cases,
beyond a not-so-certain point
it may seem like every attempt
to control the complexity
makes it more complex.
27. Sometimes,
subject to certain provisos
and special-cases,
beyond a not-so-certain point
it may seem like every attempt
to control the complexity
makes it more complex.
28. Sometimes,
subject to certain provisos
and special-cases,
and in unpredictable ways,
beyond a not-so-certain point
it may seem like every attempt
to control the complexity
makes it more complex.
65. Overall, it‟s another pattern:
• sense
• make-sense
• decide
• act
(rinse-and-repeat, indefinitely,
at every required level)
(yep – another kind of fractal-recursion…)
66. When its Simple doesn‟t work
for some level or context…
our beetle has to stop
and think for a bit.
It‟s kinda Complicated…
(for a beetle, anyway…)
67. On the map…
before
(this axis represents „time available
for sensemaking and decision-making‟
before we must take action)
„Simple’
NOW!
certain
uncertain
68. On the map…
before
we‟d place
„Complicated’
in this region of
our map
(because it‟s distant
in time from the
„NOW!‟ of action)
(this axis represents „time available
for sensemaking and decision-making‟
before we must take action)
NOW!
certain
uncertain
69. On the map…
before
„Complicated’
(this axis represents „time available
for sensemaking and decision-making‟
before we must take action)
(for „Simple’, time-tostop-and-think is a
luxury we don‟t have…)
NOW!
certain
uncertain
70. Our beetle formulates a plan…
(See beetle. See beetle stop and think…)
CC-BY-NC-ND scotproof via Flickr
75. Theory and practice
before
THEORY
What we plan to do, in the expected conditions
What we actually do, in the actual conditions
PRACTICE
NOW!
certain
uncertain
76. Theory and practice
before
“In THEORY,
there‟s no difference
between theory
and practice…
…in PRACTICE,
there is!”
NOW!
certain
uncertain
114. We‟ve noted its vertical-axis…
before
(represents „time available for
sensemaking and decision-making‟
before we must take action)
NOW!
certain
uncertain
115. …let‟s look at its horizontal-axis
before
(represents an arbitrary spectrum
from „absolute-sameness‟ [left-side]
to „absolute-difference‟ [right-side])
NOW!
certain
uncertain
116. A bunch of similar scales…
sameness
uniqueness
high-probability
standardised
low-probability
customised
high-dependability
reusability
low rate of change
unique
low-dependability
bespoke
high rate of change
117. What, no numbers?
before
by intent, there are no numbers
on either axis…
it‟s to map criteria for tactics
– relationships, not „absolutes‟
NOW!
certain
uncertain
118. We don‟t need no steenkin‟
numbers!
(but we do need options for varying tactics…)
CC-BY-NC-SA isaachsieh via Flickr
121. Take control! Impose order!
“Insanity
is doing
the same thing
and expecting
different results”
(Albert Einstein)
ORDER
(IT-type rules do work here)
certain
uncertain
122. Order and unorder
“Insanity
is doing
the same thing
and expecting
different results”
edge of
uncertainty
“Insanity
is doing
the same thing
and expecting
the same results”
(Albert Einstein)
(not Albert Einstein)
ORDER
UNORDER
(IT-type rules do work here)
(IT-type rules don‟t work here)
certain
uncertain
123. Same and different
A quest for certainty:
analysis, algorithms,
identicality, efficiency,
business-rule engines,
executable models,
Six Sigma...
An acceptance of
uncertainty:
experiment, patterns,
probabilities, „designthinking‟, unstructured
process...
SAMENESS
UNIQUENESS
(IT-systems do work
well here)
(IT-systems don‟t work
well here)
certain
uncertain
124. Why skills are needed…
What is always going to be
uncertain or unique?
What will always be „messy’?
(„Messy‟ – politics, management, wickedproblems, „should‟ vs „is‟, etc.)
Wherever these occur,
we‟re going to need human skill…
127. Tame- and wicked-problems
• definable formulation
• static „solution‟
• clear end-point
• solution is true/false
• each essentially same
• finite dependency
• no defined formulation
• dynamic „re-solution‟
• no clear end-point
• solution is good/bad
• essentially unique
• infinite dependency
‘TAME’
‘WICKED’
(„control‟ can work here)
(„control‟ can‟t work here)
certain
uncertain
128. Terms such as
„complexity science‟
may unintentionally mislead:
physical-sciences apply
mostly in the „tame‟-space…
most „complexity-science‟
applies in the „wicked‟-space.
129. Use the right models
for each domain...
don’t mix them up!
134. Where to map complexity?
„Complicated’
„COMPLEX’
some people might place
Complexity in just one domain
„Simple’
„Chaotic’
135. Where to map complexity?
before
„Complicated’
„Ambiguous’
yet in reality,
Complexity is everywhere!
„Simple’
„Not-known’
NOW!
certain
uncertain
136. Many meanings of
‘Complexity’…
(and of „Chaos‟ or „Chaotic‟, too)
– we need to embrace them all
(not make the Simplistic assertion
that only one kind is „the real complexity‟…)
137. Complexity: they‟re both right…
Roger Sessions:
John Seddon:
“eliminate
complexity!”
“embrace
complexity!”
(Simple Iterative
Partitions; Snowman)
(Vanguard Method;
„failure-demand‟)
SAMENESS
UNIQUENESS
(most IT-type models
do work well for this)
(most IT-type models
don‟t work well for this)
certain
uncertain
138. They‟re both right, because
of fractal recursion…
- a point we can illustrate via Mandelbrot…
139. not this kind of Mandel Brot…
CC-BY-NC squeakychu via Flickr
140. this kind of Mandelbrot…
CC-BY-NC-SA Michael-Maclean via Flickr
146. every point expresses the pattern…
every point describes every other point…
CC-BY-NC-SA sharman via Flickr
147. Fractal recursion means that
every point includes its own:
• Simple
• Complicated
• Ambiguous („Complex‟)
• Not-known („Chaotic‟)
148. NOTE:
„self-similar‟ is not the same as
„the same‟…
„high-probability‟ does not mean
„will always happen‟…
„low-probability‟ does not mean
„will never happen‟…
149. Use the right tactics
for each domain...
don’t mix them up!
150. But the beetle says…
“it‟s too easy to hide in theory here…”
CC-BY-NC-ND scotproof via Flickr
151. At some point
we need to stop theorising
(or hypothesising – to be pedantic)
and get back in touch with
the real-world, in real-time…
- down into the „Not-known‟…
153. Back to the real-world again…
before
„Complicated’
(exploration, improvisation and
invention all happen here)
„Simple’
„Ambiguous’
edge of
innovation
„Not-known’
NOW!
certain
uncertain
154. Here, even a dung-beetle…
CC-BY-NC-ND kishlc via Flickr
155. can learn how to fly!
CC-BY-NC-ND kishlc via Flickr
165. Where do new
ideas come from?
“Accept the burden
of uncertainty…
be comfortable
with being
uncomfortable.”
CC-BY-NC-SA grrrl via Flickr
166. Where do new
ideas come from?
“I can tell you things
all day long, but you
have to put your ass
in the seat to really
learn.”
CC-BY-NC USArmyEurope via Flickr
167. We also come at this
from the other direction
- over from the Simple,
in real-time action,
across the edge of panic…
168. Across the edge of panic
before
„Simple’
(ENACT)
edge of
panic
„Not-known’
(EXPLORE)
NOW!
certain
uncertain
176. The other learning-loop…
before
(we need real-time
feedback loops
between certainty and
uncertainty)
fears
„Simple’
(ACTION)
edge of
panic
„Not-known’
(EXPLORE)
options
NOW!
certain
uncertain
182. Making sense of complexity
Use context-maps such as SCAN
to identify
what may or must change
what is or is not certain
how these vary over time
and what to do with each
183. Linking it all together
before
questions
„Complicated’
edge of
uncertainty
(ANALYSE)
„Ambiguous’
(EXPERIMENT)
answers
rules
edge of
action
„Simple’
(ENACT)
realitie
s
principles
edge of
innovation
news
fears
edge of
panic
„Not-known’
(EXPLORE)
options
NOW!
certain
uncertain
184. Common themes in each domain
before
order
unorder
COMPLICATED
AMBIGUOUS
(analyse)
(experiment)
reciprocation
resonance
(algorithms)
recursion
reflexion
(patterns, guidelines)
SIMPLE
plan
actual
NOT-KNOWN
(enact)
(explore)
regulation
rotation
(rules)
reframe
rich-randomness
(principles)
NOW!
certain
uncertain
185. Remember that it‟s recursive
before
C
C
C
NOW!
S
certain
A
S
N
S
A
A
N
N
uncertain
186. A surgical example…
before
patient identity
patient
condition
theatre
booking
equipment
plan
verify identity
surgery plan
surgical-staff
availability
consumables
action-records
family
behaviour
pre-op
complications
change of
emergency
theatre-availability
action
NOW!
certain
uncertain
187. A surgical example…
before
patient identity
theatre
booking
equipment
plan
we need to be certain
about all of these
verify identity
consumables
action-records
NOW!
certain
uncertain
188. A surgical example…
before
patient
condition
we expect
(and plan for)
uncertainty
about these
surgery plan
surgical-staff
availability
change of
theatre-availability
NOW!
certain
uncertain
189. A surgical example…
before
we don‟t expect
these to happen,
but we need
contingency-plans
and guiding-principles
for all of them
family
behaviour
pre-op
complications
emergency
action
NOW!
certain
uncertain
190. But to let our brave dung-beetle
have the last words…
always remember…
CC-BY-NC-ND wisse via Flickr
191. in ancient Egypt…
the scarab rolled the sun along its course…
CC-BY isawnyu via Flickr
192. a helpmate and advisor to the gods…
CC-BY-NC-SA theheartindifferentkeys via Flickr
193. and even in the present-day…
CC-BY-SA swanksalot via Flickr
197. Further information:
Contact:
Tom Graves
Company:
Tetradian Consulting
Email:
tom@tetradian.com
Twitter:
@tetradian ( http://twitter.com/tetradian )
Weblog:
http://weblog.tetradian.com
Slidedecks:
http://www.slideshare.net/tetradian
Publications: http://tetradianbooks.com
Books:
• The enterprise as story: the role of narrative in enterprisearchitecture (2012)
• Mapping the enterprise: modelling the enterprise as services
with the Enterprise Canvas (2010)
• Everyday enterprise-architecture: sensemaking, strategy,
structures and solutions (2010)
• Doing enterprise-architecture: process and practice in the
real enterprise (2009)