Is Uganda headed for an energy crisis in 2035? Read about Uganda's electricity strategy for the next decade

1. Uganda’s Electricity
Strategy
2025- 2035
CONTENTS
Current Situation................................................................................................................................ 2
From Surplus to Deficit ....................................................................................................................... 2
The Strategic Imperatives.................................................................................................................... 3

2. CURRENT SITUATION
Uganda currently boosts of a combined electricity capacity of 2022.7 MW (inclusive of Karuma, an asset
under construction). The bulk of this supply is from the hydropower dams, with the bagasse, oil fired and
solar powered plants acting as supplements. Based on the average energy factor of Uganda’s hydro-power
dams, the adjusted electricity capacity stands at 1720MW of electricity. Furthermore, factoring in the
planned maintenance factor, final adjusted electricity capacity of Uganda comes to 1462MW of electricity.
The final adjustment factor for the distribution and transmission losses brings Uganda’s realized capacity
at 1243MW of electricity.
This Electricity strategy document has considered the realized capacity of 1243MW of electricity as the
planning baseline. The current peak maximum demand stands at 893 MW, thus a surplus of only 350MW.
The objective of this document is to make an urgent call for accelerated investment in the electricity
infrastructure to combat a crisis in the ten-year period 2025-2035. As of 2024, this is the electricity
situation of Uganda.
Realized
Electricity
Capacity (2024)
1243MW
Maximum Peak
Demand (2024)
893MW
Surplus 350MW
FROM SURPLUS TO DEFICIT
Although Uganda could claim a 350MW surplus, Ortega Group projects that this will soon convert into a
deficit in the period 2025 to 2030.
1. Growing Population
Uganda’s current population is estimated at 48 million people and is projected to reach 69 million by 2030.
Domestic usage accounts for 22% of Uganda’s electricity demand thus a current domestic demand of
196.46MW. By 2030, this domestic demand will grow to 300MW.
2. Industrialization Requirements
We have combined the demand requirements of the commercial, medium industrial, large industrial, extra
large industrial and street lighting thus giving a 78% contribution to electricity demand. This combined
demand currently stands at 696.54MW. By 2035, this requirement according to our energy model is
expected to have grown to 8885MW.
3. The New Demand
Thus, the combined electricity demand in Uganda in 2035 is estimated at 9185MW. This takes into
consideration the growing commercial and industrial requirements, the growth in domestic consumption
and the other requirements around street lighting. Does Uganda have a plan for addressing this gap? Does
Uganda plan to invest ahead of this demand?

3. THE STRATEGIC IMPERATIVES
At a current realized capacity of 1243MW, Uganda needs to add an extra 7942MW to its grid in the next 10
years to meet its projected demand of 9185MW. To do this, Uganda’s strategy must be underpinned by
both the time and cost factor. Time (because all energy projects take more than 8 years from inception to
commissioning), cost (because Uganda must figure out a financing strategy for these infrastructure
projects). Ortega Group recommends the below electricity strategic imperatives:
1. Accelerate Investment in Large Capacity Generation (1000MW and above)
Uganda must accelerate investment in a large capacity generation project. That’s to say, Uganda should
prioritize generation projects that are going to deliver no less than 1000MW. Ayago project should be sized
upwards from 840MW into the tune of 1000MW and fast-tracked for a ground-breaking in 2025. Phase One
of the Buyende Nuclear Power Plant should also be prioritized to guarantee the 2000MW delivery. Uganda
must deliberately rethink all planned power projects that deliver less than 500MW. The country must make
this trade-off, with stretched power factors of 0.9.
2. Urgently embark on the Overhaul and Expansion of the Transmission and Distribution Lines
Uganda experiences some of the highest transmission and distribution losses, averaging more than 18%.
This implies that 18% of the electricity that’s generated, is lost along the way. First, Uganda must prioritize
and approve distribution at high voltage of 66KV over the long distances. Uganda’s transmission network
stands at 2569.8 kilometres of electric lines while the distribution network is at 45,423.1 km. As a result,
several distribution lines are also used as transmission lines, resulting in inefficiencies and losses. Uganda
must fast-track the two-way transmission rings around Northern Tanzania, Southern Sudan, and DRC
Congo. In particular, the 400KV Lake Victoria Ring should take priority.
3. Constitute a Uganda Electricity Strategy Cross-Functional Team (CFT)
Given the risk in delaying the infrastructure investment, Uganda should urgently constitute an electricity
strategy cross-functional team. This team should consist of all the key players in the electricityvalue chain,
inclusive of the financing players. This CFT will help overcome the siloed working that contributes to most
of the delays in implementation. The mandate of this CFT should run till 2035 with a quarterly review and
report to the Cabinet on progress.

4. This Strategic Outlook has been compiled and produced by:
www.ortegagroupug.com
+256 781754358
Email: ortegagrouplimited@gmail.com