SOREDI 01.30.14
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Economic outlook for Southern Oregon. Diving into how the region has fared over the Great Recession and so far in recovery. Detailed look at industries within Jackson and Josephine counties. What drives growth? What are risks to the outlook?
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SOREDI 01.30.14
- 1. Oregon Southern Oregon in Recovery January 30, 2014 Disclaimer The views expressed in this presentation are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the State of Oregon, the Governor or the Legislature. Office of Economic Analysis Josh Lehner
- 2. Oregon’s Recovery has been Uneven but Gaining Steam Employment by Region Over the Great Recession -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% Private Sector Growth in Oregon 5% Columbia Gorge Portland MSA 40,000 35,000 30,000 Northeast Oregon 25,000 Oregon Statewide 20,000 North Coast 15,000 Willamette Valley Southeast Oregon Sourthern Oregon Central Oregon South Coast Recession Losses Dec '13 Relative to Peak 10,000 5,000 0 Jan-11 Jan-12 Portland Jan-13 All Other Oregon Jan-14
- 3. Housing and Government… Industrial Structure, 2012 25% 21.5% 20% 15.5% 16.4% 15% 10% 7.3% 7.6% 8.3% 5% 0% Housing Metro Government Oregon Nonmetro
- 4. … Are Coming Back Online… Medford Employment Growth Year-over-Year, QCEW 15% 10% 5% 0% Housing -5% Government Other Private -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13
- 5. … and Making Up Lost Ground Private Sector Employment Seasonally Adjusted, 3 Month Moving Average 0% Oregon -5% Medford -10% -15% Bend -20% May-07 May-09 May-11 May-13
- 6. Not Just in Oregon Private Sector Growth Picking Up Y/Y, 3MMA, QCEW U.S. Hardest Hit Housing Metros AZ: Flagstaff, Phoenix, Prescott, Tucson, Yuma CA: Bakersfield, Chico, El Centro, Fresno, Hanford, Los Angeles, Madera, Merced, Modesto, Napa, O xnard, Redding, Riverside, Sacramento, Salin as, San Luis Obispo, Santa Rosa, Stockton, Vallejo, Visalia, Yuba City FL: Cape Coral, Deltona, Jacksonville, Lakeland, Miami , Naples, Ocala, Orlando, Palm Bay, Panama City, Port St Lucie, Punta Gorda, Tamp ID: Boise MD: Hagerstown MI: Detroit, Flint NV: Carson City, Las Vegas, Reno OR: Bend, Medford UT: St George VA: Winchester 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13
- 7. The Housing Stall? Single Family Housing Permits Year-over-Year Growth Interest Rates Slow Housing's Rebound 30% 80% 25% 60% 40% 15% 0% Mortgage Rate --> 30 Yr Fixed 20% 20% 6% 10% -20% 5% -40% 5% 4% <-- Housing Metros Permit Growth Differential 0% 3% -60% -5% -80% Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Housing Metros Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 US ex Housing MSAs Jan-13 -10% Jan-10 2% Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 7
- 8. Housing Outlook is Bright
- 9. Checking in on Recovery • Industrial Diversification • Growth pattern is encouraging • Housing and related will rebound in 2014 and 2015 • Manufacturing – Only 10-15% of locales across U.S. have regained manufacturing employment
- 10. Quality of Jobs High-Wage – Management, Health Practitioners, Legal, Computer & Math, Arch & Engineering, Business & Finance, Scientists Upper Middle – Construction, Installation & Repair, Protective, Arts, Design, E ntertainment, Teachers, Communi ty Service Lower Middle – Production, Admin Support, Transportation, Health Support, Sales Low-Wage – Agriculture, Building Maintenance, Food Prep, Personal Care
- 11. The Region is Resilient… Employment Index, 2000 = 100 Southern Oregon's Employment Loss by Recession 2% Recession Oregon Southern Oregon 120 0% % Job Loss from Peak Employment 110 -2% 100 -4% -6% 90 -8% 80 -10% 70 -12% Early 80s 1990 2001 Current -14% 60 -16% Peak 1 2 3 4 5 No. Years from Employment Peak 6 7 50 Jan-76 Jan-80 Jan-84 Jan-88 Jan-92 Jan-96 Jan-00 Jan-04 Jan-08 Jan-12
- 12. …But Growth Varies Employment and the Great Recession Job Loss Since Pre-Recession Peak 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% -14% Josephine Jackson Oregon 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Peak -16%
- 13. Service Growth Dominates Employment Growth, 2001-2013 Oregon Jackson & Josephine Coos & Curry Douglas & Lane 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Total Nonfarm Total ex Services Professional & Business Education & Health Leisure & Hospitality
- 14. As Economic Drivers Change Statewide Wood Products, 1978 Changing of the Guard Employment, 1976-2013* Recession Forest Sector High Technology 120,000 100,000 80,000 High Technology, 2012 60,000 40,000 Jump due to more data availability (plus growth) 20,000 SIC to NAICS Series Break 0 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
- 15. Migration Matters and is Currently Missing 15
- 16. Migration Patterns Oregon Net Migration Patterns Net Migration as Share of Non-Migration Population IRS Exemptions, 2007-08 to 2009-10 IRS Exemptions, 2007-08 to 2009-10 0.4% 0.7% Share of Non-migrant Population 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.2% -0.2% -0.3% -0.2% California Washinton Other 16
- 18. Why Do People Move? Reason for Moving Current Population Survey, 2000-13 100% Housing: cheaper housing, other housing, new or better housing, want to own and not rent 90% 80% 70% 60% Better Life: change of climate, easier commute, health reasons, better neighborhood 50% 40% 30% Family Status: change in marital status, establish own household 20% 10% 0% All Movers Between States Within State From Another To State Washington U.S. New Job/Transfer Family Status Other Housing College Retired To All Other States Job Related: other job related, to look for work Oregon Better Life Disaster Disaster: foreclosure or eviction, natural disaster (Katrina) Other Family Job Related 18
- 19. Home Equity Median Home Values American Community Survey, 2008-12 Estimates $0 Net Migration and Home Prices 70000 2.4 $200,000 $400,000 $600,000 San Francisco $595,400 60000 50000 1.9 40000 Los Angeles 2 1 30000 $467,300 1.4 California 20000 10000 $383,900 0.9 0 Oregon Medford -10000 $246,100 $242,300 0.4 -20000 -30000 -0.1 1980 1985 1990 Net Migration (L) 1995 2000 2005 2010 CA to OR Home Price Index (R) Grants Pass United States $231,800 $181,400 19
- 20. Economic Opportunity Oregon Economy and Population 60000 Net Migration Unemployment Rate Difference (CA minus OR) 5.0 50000 4.0 40000 3.0 30000 2.0 20000 1.0 10000 0.0 0 -1.0 -10000 -2.0 -20000 -3.0 -30000 -4.0 -40000 -5.0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20
- 21. Demographics Age Structure Population Growth 2010-2025 16% School Age Oregon Root Setting Jackson Josephine 14% 14% 12% 12% 10% 10% 8% 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% 0% 0% <5 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-64 65-74 75-84 85+ U.S. Oregon Jackson & Josephine Under 20 Prime Working Age (2554)
- 22. Critical Condition Counties 1–6 7 – 12 13 – 18 19 – 24 25 – 30 31 – 36 Source: Oregon Employment Department
- 23. Southern Oregon Outlook Boosting Growth • Short Term – Housing rebound – Migration returns – Timber • Long Term – Industrial structure – Strategic location – Quality of life Restraining Growth • Short Term – Public sector – Replacing timber payments – Housing stall • Long Term – Demographics – Timber – Demographics 23
- 24. For More Information www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com @OR_EconAnalysis Employment Department www.qualityinfo.org 24