Supply chains have gone through 3 years of disruption. The reality is that there is more chaos to come. You and your customers are in a time of continuous disruptions. This is about you and your customers because you are part of their supply chain. What are you going to do? Will you keep reacting to what is happening? Or will you move to Rolling Adaptability for your supply chain? This will provide business continuity. Review here as to Continuous Disruptions, Supply Chains, & Rolling Adaptability.

1. Continuous
Disruptions,
Supply Chains, &
Rolling Adaptability
1
Tom Craig
tomc@ltdmgmt.com

2. Continuous
Disruptions
2
You
What your customers are
thinking and doing
Speed of disruptions and
duration

3. Continuous
Disruptions
About supply chains
Pandemic
Shortages
Supply
Logistics
Demand
Surge
Drop
Prices/Cost/Rates
Inflation & interest rates
Recession
New products
3

4. Continuous
Disruptions
4
Financial
Banks & tighter credit
Technology Industrial Revolution
Geopolitics
Russia
China-US
China
Taiwan
Russia
South China Sea
Climate change
Flood
Drought

5. Continuous
Disruptions--
Logistics
 Labor
strife/unions/contracts
 Geopolitics
 Taiwan Strait
 Black Sea/Europe
 Climate Change
 IMO 2030
 Waterway drought
 EV trucks
5

6. And while we are at it
 Synergies to lower cost
 Manage high cost & volatility
 Staying the course/sustainability/circularity
 Difficult demand forecasting with uncertainty
 Changing consumer preferences
 Digital transformation
 Restructuring
 Material shortages
6

7. What Have
You and What
Are You Doing
About All
This?
And your
customers?
7

8. Before We Start
Change and Risk
Doing something or Standing still
Reacting vs Strategy
8

9. Resilience
Reality with Supply
Chain Continuous
Disruptions
Per Bloomberg:
Supply chains drive
global trade.
9

10. 10

11. Supply Chain
Upstream / Inbound
and Downstream /
Outbound
11
 How you see it
 How your customers see it

12. How well do you know your supply chain? 12
 End to end
 Design
 Operation
 Performance
 Metrics/measures
 Players/participants
 Technology
 Time
 Cost

13. More start
 Size
 Complexity
 Nonlinearity
 Data
13

14. Your operation
 Products
 Markets
 Channels
 Suppliers
 Customers
 Logistics providers
 Any elephant in the room?
14

15. Approach
 Map and Assess
 Operations
 Assets
 Trends
 Strategy
 Structure
15

16. Questions for you
 Did the pandemic expose weaknesses that
were always there with your supply
chains?
 How much of three years of supply chain
problems reflect the push for low costs?
 How much can cost be reduced with
improved supply chain performance
instead of pushing for low freight and
supplier costs?
16

17. Operations
17
 Upstream
 Largest & most complex
 “The problem” for 3 years
 Where supply of supply chains
begins
 Go deep
 Suppliers’ suppliers
 Their logistics
 Downstream
 The nonlinear process, not
the functions
 Time

18. Inventory
 Misaligning inventory &
demand
 Supplier financials
 Segment inventory
 Deeper upstream with
supplier suppliers & logistics
 Reduce risk
 Compress order-delivery time
 Improve performance
 Less buffer inventory
 Lower capital expenditures
18

19. Assets 19
 Whose
 Yours
 Others
 Where (go deep)
 What are they
 Factories
 Warehouses
 Owned or Not
 Nodes and links

20. Assess
20
 Change/No change
 You see
 You do not see
 Importance
 Evaluate
 Mitigate
 Secret word: visibility
 Reluctance to change

21. Trends
 Technology
 Trade fracture
 Sustainability
21

22. Technology
22
 Map (VR/AR?)
 Gaps/Lack of integration
 Digitization / digital
 e-Bills of Lading
 Data
 Quantity
 Quality
 Visibility
 Blockchain
 Artificial intelligence
 Data analytics & Predictive analytics
 Robotics & autonomous technology

23. Trade fracture &
supply chain diversification 23
 China Covid lockdowns
 Priority products
 US-China trade
 Sanctions
 Tariffs
 Reshore/”Decoupling from
China”
 Mexico
 India
 Vietnam
 Upstream supplier tiers

24. Sustainability 24
 Upstream
 Scope 3 emissions
 You
 Your customer
 Focused approach
 Various:
 Supply Chain Sustainability
Assessment Tool
 European Commission-Net
Zero Industry Act
 Carbon Intensity Indicator &
Carbon Emissions Index for
container lines

25. Strategy
25
 Complement company strategy
 Not fixed/Dynamic, time/speed & ability
to move/shift/adapt
 For you
 For customers
 Participants & number of
 Blend of operations & technology
 Remember the gaps & complexity
 Your risk tolerance
 Key players to develop it
 Execution & Prioritize action steps

26. Structure
26
 Where it fits in company &
with strategy
 People
 Assets
 Upstream/inbound &
Downstream/outbound
 Purchasing and logistics/supply
chain together in upstream
 Not about logistics functions
 Performance based
 Centralized and
decentralized
 Fluid

27. I see geopolitics and climate
change as the key disruptors ahead
for supply chains.
This goes across industries,
markets, channels, and business
types.
The extent of the disruption may
vary. But there will be disruption.
What are you doing, and what will
you do?
In Conclusion 27

28. Remember
Change and Risk
Doing something or Standing still
Reacting vs Strategy
28

29. Container lines
 Economy & demand
 Rates fall & now….
 USWC port strike hedge
 Power shift
 Carriers:
Blank sailings
Canceled services
Lay up ships
Newbuilds
 More buffer inventory
29

30. European
Parliament
 Be climate neutral
 Cleaner maritime fuels
 Reduce GHG
 Cut ship emissions
 2% by 2025
 80% by 2050
30

31. Before questions
I hope what I said made
sense and was useful.
Poll results
31

32. 32
Tom Craig
tomc@ltdmgmt.com