Story points and velocity is often the bane of Agile teams. Management uses the teams’ velocity to measure the teams. Giving the teams praise and rewards if they make their velocity quotas, and punishments if they don’t. However, story points and velocity were never meant to be a management tool! This session will explore the concept of estimation and how to really use estimation. In this session we will explore: • Relative sizing (story points, Fibonacci, tee-shirt sizes) compared to time based estimate (hours, days) • Affinity clustering techniques to get teams started with relative sizing • Using planning poker for team-based estimates • Using retrospectives to learn from estimates • How to use estimates for tracking and forecasting • How to stabilize estimates and what to do if teams can’t stabilize their estimates • How to convince management to focus away from velocity and more towards more effective means of tracking and forecasting By the end of the workshop, attendees have a great understanding of how to effectively leverage estimation, story points, and velocity to help plan their projects instead of ruining them!

1. No more carrots, no
more sticks … how to
really use story points
and velocity…
Richard Cheng
Proprietary Material Provided for Training Purposes Only
© 2023 Agility Prime Solutions

2. Discussion
Talk about your experiences
with estimation. What has
worked out well and what
have been some of the
biggest issues you’ve seen
with estimation.

3. Units of
Estimation
Time base estimation:
• Hours
• Days
Relative sizing estimation:
• Story Points
• Fibonacci
• Tee-shirt sizing

4. Issues with
Time Based
Estimates
Issues with hours:
1. Work time vs turn around time
2. Differences in skillsets
3. Nervousness around time based estimates

5. Story
Points
• Story Points represent the relative
effort needed to complete a story
• This should factor in volume of work,
complexity, and risk of unknown
• Story Points use a rough order of
magnitude scale:
0, ½, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20, 40, 100, ?, inf.
• Story size should be relative
to each other.

6. Technique
– Starting
with Story
Points
1.Sort the items from smallest to
largest
2.Group items together that are
similarly sized
3.Assign story points to the groupings
4.After the sprint is done, review the
numbers, update based on what
happened during the sprint

7. Planning
Poker
• A Wide Band Delphi based
approach to group estimation
• Each team member concurrently
and independently provides an
estimate on a story
• Outlier are discussed until
consensus is reached
• Helps team reach common
understanding of the work

8. Story Points
& Planning
Poker
• Fast techniques
• Increases accuracy
• Builds understanding
• Drives commitment
• Provides data points

9. Team
Improvement
• Velocity and story points are team
based for their own pacing
• Not meant to be a management tool
• Raw numbers do not matter
• For improvement
1. High completion percentage
2. Relatively stable velocity
3. Now we can focus on improvement and then
start back at 1

10. Unstable Velocity
1. People constantly coming in and out of your team
2. People spread across multiple teams
3. PBI’s too big
4. Sprint’s too long
5. Unstable environment
6. Constant changes in priority
7. Too much responding to day to day requests
8. Constant changes in the nature of your work

11.  Agile trainer & coach
 CST, CSM, CSPO, CSP, PMI-ACP, PMP,
SAFe SPC, AKT, KMP, Certified LeSS
Practitioner, CAL 1, Certified Enterprise
Scrum Trainer, Training from the Back of the
Room Certified Instructor
 Background in government, commercial,
and non-profit transformations
 Reston, VA
 https://www.linkedin.com/in/richardcheng
 Richard.Cheng@AgilityPrimeSolutions.com
Richard Cheng
@RichardKCheng