IT professional and innovation leadership labour market data and forecast for the EU28. Presentation given at the High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe Conference in Brussels, 26 January 2017.

1. Innovation Leadership Skills
for the High-Tech Economy -
Demand, Supply and Forecasting
Tobias Hüsing, empirica
Eriona Dashja, empirica
High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe Conference – Brussels, 26th January 2017

2. Contents
• e-Skills forecast: IT Professionals
• e-Leadership definition
• Quantification
• e-Leadership forecast
• Conclusions
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017

3. Latest Forecast, Dec. 2015
7,900,000
8,049,000
8,239,000
8,444,000
8,641,000
8,812,000
8,964,000
7,535,000
7,676,000
7,767,000
7,868,000
7,973,000
8,090,000
8,209,000
365,000
373,000
472,000
576,000
668,000
722,000
756,000
7,000,000
7,500,000
8,000,000
8,500,000
9,000,000
9,500,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Jobsanddemandpotential
EU28 - Main Forecast Scenario
Demand Potential Total
Jobs Total
674,000
jobs added
jobs potential
Old Forecast of 2015
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017

4. 8,396,000
8,556,000
8,728,000
8,867,000
9,022,000
9,174,000
8,033,000
8,186,000
8,318,000
8,472,000
8,574,000
8,675,000
363,000
370,000
410,000
395,000
448,000
500,000
7,500,000
8,000,000
8,500,000
9,000,000
9,500,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Jobsanddemandpotential
EU28 - Main Forecast Scenario
Demand Potential Total
Jobs Total
642,000
jobs added
jobs potential
Broaddefinition(Eurostat)ofICT specialist workforce
New Forecast Scenario, Jan. 2017
Annual averages:
• Demand growth 1.8%
• 128,000 job creation
• 215,000 replacement
Why is the gap in 2020
down to 500k?
• Supply improvements
+109k jobs
= 43% of effect
• Demand effects
-137k demand
= 54% of effect
• Different definition
and other factors
-10k gap
= 4% of effect
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017

5. Supply of IT Skills is growing
Supply forecast has increased, especially on the
training (VET) side, education (HE) stagnating
62.000
50.000
63.000 65.000 67.000
72.000
133.000 135.000
122.000 123.000
114.000 115.000 114.000 111.000
103.000 104.000
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
140.000
160.000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Vocational
Tertiary
VET = Vocational Education and Training HE = Higher Education
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017

6. 4-year growth averages (2011 to 2015) -
signs of skill polarization
8.3%
3.9%
0.4%
1.7%
-0.1%
7.4%
3.5%
Management, architecture
and analysis
Core ICT practitioners -
professional level
Other ICT practitioners -
professional level
Core ICT practitioners -
associate/technician level
Other ICT practitioners -
associate/technician level
Mechanics and servicers
Total

7. e-Skills Forecast - Summary
• Estimated gap narrowing – in part due to better supply
• Polarization: middle skills might get under pressure
• Continuous education and training gain more relevance
• Overall demand keeps growing despite offshoring and
automation (growing sophistication and professionalism)
• Labour market over decades met demand through lateral
(“outsider”) entries, mending the gap, but still...
• ... a conflict between the growing need for increased IT
professionalism and work-around practices is prevailing
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017

8. e-Leadership Definition
© empirica 2016
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017

9. Quantification
• Sectoral: IT-intensity and size of firm determine a
certain average number of innovation leaders
Estimation based on the structure of the economy
• Survey based: asking about involvement of
workers in successful digital innovation
• Functional: Assigning innovation leadership
probabilities to job statistics
9European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017

10. e-Leaders in Europe: around 600,000
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017 10
155,000
High growth SMEs 140,000
28,000
ICT ICT intensive Low ICT intensity
SmallMediumLarge
12,000
54,000
130,000
75,000

11. • Analysis of online job postings (Jobfeed database )
• Search algorithm to find ads fitting all the criteria of
the e-leadership definition
• DE, UK, FR, NL, AT
• November 2015 snapshot
• Assume 50% publish rate
• Assume EU total ~= 5 countries * 1.5
•  16,500 vacancies for e-leaders
– Equals vacancy rate of 2.65%
(compare: total business economy: 1.8%, ICT: 2.9%)
Strategy
Trans-
formation
&
Innovation
Business
Demand: Counting Job Adverts
© empirica 2016
Digital
Leadership &
&
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017

12. 600.000
521.000
422.000
16,500
616.500
694.000
805,000
0
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
500.000
600.000
700.000
800.000
900.000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Demand Forecast for e-Leadership Jobs
Expansion demand since 2016
Replacement demand since 2016
Jobs held by 2016 workforce
Demand total
383,000
173,000
Demand Forecast e-Leadership Jobs
Scenario Moderate Demand Growth (3% CAGR)
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017

13. Supply Scenarios Given
Moderate Demand Growth (3% CAGR)
e-leader generation
capacity / year
Vacancies
2020
Vacancies
2025
Over-supply
2020
Over-supply
2025
30,000 53,000 112,500 0 0
40,000 13,000 22,500 0 0
42,500 3,000 1,000 0 0
45,000 0 0 5,000 2,000
50,000 0 0 10,000 7,000
60,000 0 0 20,000 17,000
Given 3% demand growth, optimum capacity
generates 40,000 to 50,000 e-leaders per year
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017

14. Quantification - Summary
• Estimates based on the definition of e-Leadership
• No data available from statistical offices
• Status quo ~ 600,000
• Open vacancy data, some assumptions applying, as a demand metric
• Future demand evolution based on scenarios only
• At 3% demand growth, 40k to 50k new e-leaders annually needed
– Graduate figures from executive education (HE and business schools) are
far from being even close to this order of magnitude
– Supply emerges mainly trough cross-functional experience, corporate
leadership programmes and other on-the-job development.
• Significant scope for improvement of e-leadership talent development
strategies, at enterprise as well as at national and EU economy level
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017

15. Other Indicators As Proxy
Innovation
leadership
pipeline
Innovation
leadership
skills base
pool
Business
structure
Innovation
Technology
usage
Innovation
leadership
skilling
Innovation leadership policy and
stakeholder
Input Throughput Output/Outcome
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017

16. e-Leadership Measurement
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017 16
8,0
6,2
5,9
5,5
5,5
5,5
5,5
5,0
4,7
4,6
4,6
4,6
4,3
4,3
4,1
4,0
4,0
3,8
3,7
3,6
3,5
3,3
3,3
3,2
3,2
3,2
3,2
2,2
4,4
IE UK DK NL FI BE MT AT SE FR DE ES EE PL LU SI HR HU LT PT BG CZ GR IT SK LV CY RO EU
Input & leading indicators - education, graduates and juniors, policy
2016 2015
7,5
7,4
7,2
7,1
7,0
6,8
6,4
6,4
6,1
5,9
5,9
5,8
5,6
5,5
5,1
4,9
4,6
4,4
4,4
4,2
4,1
4,0
4,0
3,9
3,8
3,8
3,4
3,2
5,3
SE NL FI UK LU BE DE IE DK FR AT EE MT SI CZ LV LT HU ES SK CY PT IT PL HR BG RO GR EU
Outcome & lagging indicators - senior professionals & leaders, business &
innovation environment 2016 2015

17. Accomplishment vs. Preparedness Plotting
For The Mid-Term Outlook
© empirica 2016
Innovation Leadership
Skills Outlook
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK
EU
2,00
3,00
4,00
5,00
6,00
7,00
8,00
2,00 3,00 4,00 5,00 6,00 7,00 8,00
e-LeadershipPreparedness
e-Leadership Accomplishment
At risk of
Stagnating
Potential
to Leap
Dedicated
to Lead
Risk of
Complacency
IE PT DE
PL AT LV
ES HU CZ
MT EU SE
DK IT LU
HR LT
GR BE
BG CY
UK SK
FR
FI
EE
SI
RO
NL
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017

18. Conclusions
• Unless massive surveys are undertaken, useful to rely on
indicator scoreboard as proxy measurement
• Preparedness > accomplishment: best outlook on
growing their e-leadership skills maturity. Examples:
– Ireland (Strengths: executive education and LLL),
– Malta (Policies and initiatives),
– Denmark (Graduates & junior practitioners, LLL),
– Spain (Executive education),
– Poland (Education programmes, graduates)
• Accomplishment > preparedness: Look out for complacency!
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017

19. THANK YOU