Powerpoint presentation describing climate change impacts in India, hydrological impact of climate change, impact of climate change on groundwater, methodology to assess the impact of climate change on groundwater resources, recent studies, and role of artificial intelligence.

1. Impact of Climate Change on
Groundwater Resources
C. P. Kumar
Scientist ‘G’ (Retired)
National Institute of Hydrology
Roorkee – 247667 (Uttarakhand)
Publications: http://www.angelfire.com/nh/cpkumar/publication/

2. Presentation Overview
◆ Groundwater in Hydrologic Cycle
◆ What is Climate Change?
◆ Climate Change Impacts in India
◆ Hydrological Impact of Climate Change
◆ Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater
◆ Methodology to Assess the Impact of Climate Change
on Groundwater Resources
◆ Recent Studies
◆ Role of Artificial Intelligence

3. Groundwater in Hydrologic Cycle

5. Types of Terrestrial Water
Ground water
Soil
Moisture
Surface
Water

6. Unsaturated Zone / Zone of Aeration / Vadose
(Soil Water)
Pores Full of Combination of Air and Water
Zone of Saturation (Ground water)
Pores Full Completely with Water

7. Groundwater
Important source of clean water
More abundant than Surface Water
Linked to SW systems
Sustains flows
in streams
Baseflow

8. Pollution
Groundwater Concerns
Groundwater mining
Subsidence

9. Groundwater Concerns
➢ Groundwater overdraft / mining
➢ Waterlogging and soil salinity
➢ Seawater intrusion in coastal
Aquifers
➢ Groundwater contamination

10. Effective management of a groundwater system
involves strategic decision-making in critical areas,
including:
• Annual Withdrawal Volume: Determining the permissible total
volume for annual extraction from the aquifer.
• Well Placement and Rates: Identifying optimal locations for
pumping and artificial recharge wells, and establishing their
respective extraction and injection rates.
• Aquifer Protection and Remediation: Implementing measures
to safeguard and rehabilitate contaminated aquifers, ensuring
sustainable and resilient water resources.

11. Why include groundwater in
climate change studies?
▪ Groundwater makes up a small
percentage of Earth's total water but
comprises around 30% of its freshwater.
▪ It serves as the primary source of water
for over 1.5 billion people globally.
▪ Depletion of groundwater poses a
significant threat to irrigated agriculture.

12. Groundwater's Role in Climate Change Studies
Climate Resilience: Groundwater is a critical source of freshwater
during droughts and reduced surface water availability, aiding climate
adaptation and resilience planning.
Sea Level Rise: Rising sea levels from climate change can cause
saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers, necessitating management to
protect freshwater supplies.
Hydrological Changes: Climate-induced shifts in precipitation
patterns can impact groundwater recharge rates, requiring
understanding for sustainable water resource management.

13. Ecosystem Support: Groundwater sustains wetlands, springs, and
baseflows in rivers, vital for diverse ecosystems. Climate-induced
groundwater level changes can disrupt these ecosystems and harm
biodiversity.
Urban and Agricultural Water Supply: Many cities and
agricultural regions rely on groundwater for water supply. Climate-
driven changes in groundwater availability and quality can have
significant economic and social consequences.
Climate Impact Mitigation: Well-managed groundwater resources
enable managed aquifer recharge, storing excess surface water during
wet periods. This helps mitigate flood risks and offers a buffer
against climate extremes.

14. What is Climate Change?

15. What is Climate Change?
IPCC usage:
•Any change in climate over time, whether due to
natural variability or from human activity.
Alternate:
•Change of climate, attributed directly or
indirectly to human activity, that
•Alters composition of global atmosphere and
•Is in addition to natural climate variability observed
over comparable time periods

19. Factors Contributing to Global Sea-Level Change
• Global sea-level change is primarily driven by recent climate change.
• Two main processes alter the volume of water in the global ocean:
a) Thermal Expansion: Rising temperatures cause seawater to
expand, contributing to sea-level rise.
b) Exchange of Water: Water exchange occurs between oceans
and other reservoirs:
Glaciers, Ice Caps, Ice Sheets
Other Land Water Reservoirs
Anthropogenic Changes in Land Hydrology and Atmosphere
• These processes collectively impact global sea-level rise.

21. Changing Climate Trends and Future
Projections
Changing Climate Trends and Future
Projections
Observations of Change:
➢ Globally, hot days, hot nights, and heatwaves have become more frequent.
➢ Frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land
areas.
Future Projections:
➢ Tropical cyclones are expected to become more intense, accompanied by
heavier precipitation.
➢ Snow cover is projected to contract.
➢ Hot extremes, heatwaves, and heavy precipitation events are anticipated to
become more frequent.

22. Overview of the Climate Change Problem
Source: IPCC Synthesis Report 2001

23. GLOBAL CIRCULATION MODELS
Formulated to simulate climate sensitivity to increased
concentrations of greenhouse gases such as carbon
dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide.

24. Global Circulation Models (GCMs) in Climate Science
❖ GCMs, or General Circulation Models, are sophisticated computer
simulations used in climate science.
❖ They simulate the Earth's climate system by incorporating various
physical processes, including:
~ Atmospheric circulation
~ Ocean currents
~ Land surface interactions
❖ GCMs are crucial for predicting climate patterns and studying the impact
of factors like greenhouse gas emissions on global climate change.
❖ These models are essential tools for understanding climate dynamics,
making climate projections, and guiding policy decisions related to
climate mitigation and adaptation.

25. Climate Change Impacts in India

26. Impact of Climate Change in India
➢ India’s average temperature has risen by around 0.7 deg. C
during 1901-2018.
➢ Frequency of daily precipitation extremes (rainfall
intensities >150 mm per day) increased by about 75%
during 1950-2015.
➢ The frequency and spatial extent of droughts over India
has increased significantly during 1951-2015.
➢ Sea-level rise in the Indian Ocean occurred at a rate of 3.3
mm per year in the last two and half decades (1993-2017).
➢ Frequency of Severe Cyclonic Storms over Arabian sea has
increased during the post monsoon seasons of 1998-2018.

27. ❖ Change in Surface Air Temperature (TAS, °C) and Precipitation (PR, mm day−1) Relative
to 1850–1900 for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Scenarios from CMIP5 Models for the Global
and the Indian Region During the Historical (1951–2014), Near Future (2040–2069)
and Far Future (2070–2099) Period.
❖ This Data was produced by the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India.
❖ RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) is a greenhouse gas emissions
scenario that represents a moderate mitigation pathway, with global warming limited
to around 2°C by 2100.
❖ RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) is a greenhouse gas emissions
scenario that represents a high-end emissions pathway, leading to significant global
warming of approximately 4.5°C or more by 2100 if not mitigated.

28. ➢ CMIP5 Ensemble Projected Change (32 GCMs) in Annual Temperature by 2040–
2059 (left) and by 2080–2090 (right) Relative to 1986–2005 Baseline Under RCP8.5
➢ The CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) ensemble refers to a
collection of climate model simulations conducted by different research institutions
worldwide, used to assess climate change projections and study various climate phenomena.

29. ❑ Projected Average Annual Temperature in India Under RCP2.6 (Blue) and
RCP8.5 (Red). The Shaded Areas Show the 10–90th Percentiles (Historical
Reference Period, 1986–2005)
❑ RCP2.6 (Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6) is a greenhouse gas
emissions scenario that represents a low emissions pathway, aiming to limit global
warming to approximately 2°C or below by 2100, consistent with strong
mitigation efforts to reduce carbon emissions.

30. CMIP5 Ensemble Projected Change (32 GCMs) in Precipitation by 2040–2059
(left) and by 2080–2090 (right) Relative to 1986–2005 Baseline Under RCP8.5

31. Overview of Climate Change in India
❖ India is already experiencing a warming
climate.
❖ Unprecedented spells of hot weather are
becoming more frequent, covering larger
areas.
❖ Potential for significant shifts in
temperature patterns.
❖ Decline in monsoon rainfall since the 1950s,
with an increase in heavy rainfall events.

32. Groundwater Vulnerability in India
❖ Even without climate change, 15% of India's groundwater
resources are already overexploited, raising concerns about
sustainability.
❖ Rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns
further challenge groundwater levels.
❖ It is challenging to predict future groundwater levels, but
falling water tables are expected due to increasing demand,
affluent lifestyles, and greater water demand from the
services sector and industries.
❖ Continued groundwater depletion threatens agriculture, a
sector heavily reliant on rain-fed water sources, exacerbating
water stress in India.

33. Impacts on Agriculture and Water Resources
❖ Under 4°C warming, west coast and southern India
may shift to new high-temperature climatic regimes,
affecting agriculture.
❖ Anticipated increase in drought frequency, particularly
in north-western India, Jharkhand, Orissa, and
Chhattisgarh.
❖ Over 60% of India's agriculture relies on rain-fed water
sources, making the country highly dependent on
groundwater.
❖ Glaciers in the northwestern Himalayas and
Karakoram range are stable or retreating, impacting
rivers and food production.

34. Coastal Vulnerability and Urbanization Risks
❖ Mumbai has the world's largest population exposed
to coastal flooding.
❖ Sea-level rise and storm surges can result in
saltwater intrusion, affecting agriculture,
groundwater quality, and drinking water.
❖ Densely populated coastal cities like Kolkata and
Mumbai are vulnerable to sea-level rise, tropical
cyclones, and riverine flooding.
❖ Rapid and unplanned urbanization increases the
risks of sea water intrusion.

35. Hydrological Impact of
Climate Change

36. Climate Change Impacts - General Climate Change Impacts - Water Resources

37. Hydrological Impact of Climate Change
▪ Temperature increases directly affect the hydrologic cycle.
▪ Resulting in increased evaporation of surface water and vegetation
transpiration.
▪ Changes in temperature can influence precipitation, affecting amounts,
timing, and intensity.
▪ These temperature-driven changes indirectly impact water flux and
storage in different reservoirs, including lakes, soil moisture, and
groundwater.
▪ Climate change may lead to additional impacts such as sea water
intrusion, water quality deterioration, and shortages of potable water.

38. • Greater rainfall variability leads to more frequent and extended high or low
groundwater levels.
• Saline intrusion into coastal aquifers is a consequence of rising sea levels and
resource reduction.
• Groundwater resources are intricately linked to climate change, both directly and
indirectly.
• Direct interaction with surface water resources (lakes and rivers) has a significant
impact on groundwater.
• Indirectly, climate change influences groundwater through the recharge process.
• Climate change's effect on groundwater hinges on changes in recharge volume
and distribution.
• Accurately quantifying this impact necessitates precise forecasting of climatic
variables and groundwater recharge estimation.

39. Impact of
Climate
Change
Temperature
Increase
Change in
Monsoon
Pattern
Increase
in Rain Fall
Intensity
Decrease
in Number
of Rainy
Days
Decrease
in Snow
Fall
Increase in
Glacier
Retreat
Increase in
Evaporation
Rate
Change in
Runoff
Pattern
Change in
Ground
water
Recharge
Increase in
Extreme
Events
Sea Level
Rise
Change in
Water
Quality

40. Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources & Hydrologic
Cycle
• Change in precipitation pattern
Increase in atmospheric water
vapour content
• Increased risk of floods and
droughts
Increased precipitation
• Implications for agriculture,
afforestation and water supply
Change in evapo-transpiration,
soil moisture and runoff
• Implications for Ground water
Withdrawal
Change in Ground Water
Recharge
• Change in runoff pattern
Ice melting and reduction in
snow cover
• Increased seawater intrusion
Sea level rise

41. Impact of Climate Change on
Groundwater

42. Issues on Groundwater Use
Major problems related with groundwater use are:
Issues due to over-exploitation of groundwater
➢ Depletion in groundwater table
➢ Land subsidence
➢ Saline water intrusion
Issues on groundwater contamination
➢ Human health damage
➢ Abandonment of well leading to decrease of water availability
In addition, CLIMATE CHANGE impact may add existing pressure on
groundwater by
➢ Impeding recharge capacities
➢ Being called on to fill eventual gaps in surface water availability due to
increased variability in precipitation

43. Climate change can impact groundwater sustainability
through various mechanisms:
▪ Changes in groundwater recharge due to seasonal and
decadal variations in precipitation and temperature.
▪ More severe and prolonged droughts can reduce
groundwater levels.
▪ Alterations in evapotranspiration caused by shifts in
temperature and vegetation patterns.
Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater

44. ▪ Potential increased demands for groundwater as a
backup water supply or for agricultural development.
▪ Rising sea levels leading to seawater intrusion in low-
lying coastal areas, affecting groundwater quality.
▪ Groundwater systems respond slowly to long-term climate
variability compared to surface-water systems.
▪ Effective groundwater management necessitates long-
term ahead-planning due to these response
characteristics.

45. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON GROUNDWATER
- Recharge
- Discharge
- Storage
- Quality
- Temperature
- Precipitation
- Evapotranspiration
- Sea level rise
- Soil moisture

46. Groundwater and Climate Change
➢ Groundwater is a critical resource for drinking,
agriculture, and ecosystems.
➢ Climate change projections indicate alterations in
precipitation patterns and increased temperatures.
Reduced Recharge Rates
➢ Changes in precipitation affect natural groundwater
recharge.
➢ Increased evaporation rates due to higher
temperatures lead to less infiltration.

47. Altered Groundwater Flow Patterns
➢ Shifts in precipitation and evapotranspiration influence
groundwater flow paths.
➢ Decreased spring and stream flows connected to
groundwater systems.
Groundwater Quality Concerns
➢ Increased concentration of pollutants due to reduced
dilution from lower recharge.
➢ Risk of saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifers due to
sea-level rise.

48. Impact on Water Demand
➢ Rising temperatures and variability in water supply
boost groundwater demand.
➢ Over-extraction risks due to increased reliance on
groundwater.
Ecosystem Consequences
➢ Dependence of wetlands and riparian habitats on
groundwater levels.
➢ Threats to species and natural communities that rely
on consistent groundwater inputs.

49. Socioeconomic Implications
➢ Challenges for communities dependent on groundwater
for potable and irrigation needs.
➢ Economic strain from the need to invest in alternative
water sources or infrastructure upgrades.
Adaptive Strategies and Management
➢ The necessity for integrated water resources
management considering surface and groundwater.
➢ Importance of sustainable withdrawal practices and
recharge enhancement techniques.

50. Policy and Governance
➢ Need for robust legal frameworks to manage transboundary
aquifers.
➢ Collaboration between scientists, policymakers, and stakeholders
to develop adaptive policies.
Research and Monitoring
➢ Critical role of ongoing research to understand climate impacts on
groundwater.
➢ Implementation of advanced monitoring systems for early
detection of groundwater changes.
Concluding Remarks
➢ Climate change as a pressing issue requiring proactive
groundwater management.
➢ Urgency of global and local action to mitigate impacts and adapt
to changing groundwater realities.

51. Methodology to Assess the Impact of
Climate Change on Groundwater Resources

52. Methodology to Assess the Impact of Climate Change
on Groundwater System
The methodology consists of three main steps:
❖ Formulation of climate scenarios for future years (e.g., 2050 and
2100).
❖ Simulation of seasonal and annual recharges based on these
scenarios using appropriate models (such as UnSat Suite or
WetSpass).
❖ Simulation of groundwater system conditions using transient
groundwater models (e.g., MODFLOW) for both present and
future years.

53. Key Tasks
Main tasks involved in the study:
❖ Describe the hydrogeology of the study area.
❖ Analyze climate data from weather stations and GCMs,
creating future climate change datasets.
❖ Develop a methodology for estimating changes in
groundwater recharge under various climate change
scenarios.
❖ Utilize computer codes like UnSat Suite or WetSpass to
estimate groundwater recharge based on climate data.
❖ Quantify spatially distributed recharge rates using climate
and soil survey data.

54. Model Development and Analysis
❖ Development and calibration of a three-dimensional
regional-scale groundwater flow model (e.g., Visual
MODFLOW).
❖ Simulate groundwater levels using different recharge
datasets.
❖ Evaluate changes in groundwater levels over time.
❖ Perform sensitivity analysis of the groundwater flow
model to assess its robustness and reliability.

55. Coastal Aquifers
Coastal Aquifers are vulnerable to climate change.
Factors considered: Sea level rise, changes in precipitation, and
temperature.
Methodology involves:
❖ Developing and calibrating a density-dependent numerical
groundwater flow model.
❖ Estimating changes in sea level, temperature, and
precipitation from GCM outputs.
❖ Estimating changes in groundwater recharge.
❖ Applying these changes to the numerical groundwater model
to predict shifts in groundwater levels and salinity.

56. A typical flow chart for various aspects of such a study is given below. The figure shows the connection from
the climate analysis, to recharge simulation, and finally to a groundwater model. Recharge is applied to a
three-dimensional groundwater flow model, which is calibrated to historical water levels. Transient
simulations are undertaken to investigate the temporal response of the aquifer system to historic and future
climate periods.

57. Recent Studies on Imapct of Climate
Change on Groundwater

58. (1) Divergent effects of climate change on future
groundwater availability in key mid-latitude aquifers
Wen-Ying Wu et al. (2020), Nature Communications
▪ Investigated groundwater storage (GWS) changes in seven critical aquifers in the
USA.
▪ Assessed potential climate-driven impacts on GWS changes throughout the 21st
century under the business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5).
▪ Climate-driven impacts on GWS changes don't necessarily follow long-term
precipitation trends.
▪ Divergent responses of GWS changes across different aquifers.
▪ Reduction in GWS primarily due to: Enhancement of evapotranspiration and
Reduction in snowmelt.
▪ Over-pumping and climate effects collectively contribute to GWS reduction.
▪ Climate change has complex and divergent effects on groundwater availability.
▪ Over-pumping is a significant contributor to GWS reduction.
▪ The study highlights the importance of considering both climate impacts and
human activities in managing groundwater resources.

59. (2) The impact of climate change on groundwater
recharge: National-scale assessment for the British
mainland
A. Hughes et al. (2021), Journal of Hydrology
▪ Utilized the national-scale recharge model developed by the Future Flows and
Groundwater Levels (FFGWL) project for the British mainland.
▪ Evaluated changes in seasonal and monthly recharge for the 2050s and 2080s time periods.
▪ Assessment conducted for the entire modeled area and river basin districts in England and
Wales.
▪ Areal summaries and monthly time series of recharge values reveal consistent trends:
Increased recharge during winter, Decreased recharge during summer,
Mixed patterns in autumn and spring.
▪ Increased winter rainfall identified as the primary factor driving increased recharge.
▪ Water balance calculations demonstrate that the climate change "signal" becomes more
pronounced compared to annual variability over the 2050s and 2080s.
▪ This results in a clearer pattern of more recharge being concentrated in fewer months.
▪ Climate change has significant effects on groundwater recharge patterns.
▪ Seasonal shifts in recharge have implications for water resource management and
ecosystem health.
▪ Understanding these changes is crucial for sustainable groundwater management and
adaptation to future climate conditions.

60. (3) Impact of climate change on groundwater recharge
and salinity distribution in the Vientiane basin, Lao
PDR
Pankham Soundala and Phayom Saraphiromb (2022), Journal of Water and Climate Change
▪ Study conducted in the Vientiane basin, Lao PDR (Southeast Asian country Laos).
▪ Utilized six climatic scenarios from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) under
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 to project future rainfall and
temperature (2021–2050)
▪ Employed numerical models:- HELP3 for groundwater recharge estimation, MODFLOW
for groundwater potential assessment, MT3D for salinity distribution analysis.
▪ Rainfall expected to increase during the next 30 years (2050) in the Vientiane basin.
▪ Percentage increases in rainfall under different GCMs and RCPs.
▪ Groundwater recharge estimated to rise consistently from baseline levels under all future
climate conditions.
▪ Changes in salinity distribution in depth aquifers: Decrease in areas with Total Dissolved
Solids (TDS) between 500 and 1,500 mg/l (saline water), Increase in areas with TDS at 500
mg/l (freshwater).
▪ Increased annual groundwater replenishment in response to climate change.
▪ Shifts in salinity distribution have implications for water quality and usage.
▪ The study underscores the importance of understanding the consequences of climate
change on groundwater resources for sustainable management.

61. Role of Artificial Intelligence in
Climate Change Studies

62. Harnessing AI for Climate Resilience
❖ Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a field of computer science
focused on creating computer systems that can perform tasks
that typically require human intelligence, such as learning from
data, making decisions, and solving complex problems.
❖ Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a game-changer in climate change
studies, offering advanced solutions to tackle this pressing
global issue.
❖ AI empowers researchers, policymakers, and organizations with
data-driven insights and tools for climate change mitigation and
adaptation.

63. Key Contributions of AI
❖ Climate Modeling and Prediction: AI can enhance climate models,
enabling accurate predictions of temperature changes, precipitation
patterns, and extreme weather events.
❖ Data Analysis and Management: AI can process vast datasets from
multiple sources, extracting valuable insights and trends related to
climate change.
❖ Natural Disaster Prediction and Response: AI can predict natural
disasters with precision, facilitating better preparedness and quicker
response to minimize damage and save lives.
❖ Carbon Emission Monitoring: AI can track and analyze carbon
emissions, aiding in emission reduction strategies and sustainable
practices.

64. AI for Climate Resilience
AI can assist in -
❖ Identifying vulnerable regions and populations
❖ Monitoring ecosystems
❖ Enhancing food security in changing weather
patterns
❖ Assessing climate-related risks for financial planning
❖ Educating and raising awareness about climate
change

65. https://compassionateailab.com/how-artificial-intelligence-can-solve-climate-change/

66. Thank You !!!

67. Additional Information

68. Extreme Heat
What we know:
➢ India is already experiencing a warming climate.
What could happen:
➢ Unusual and unprecedented spells of hot weather expected to become
more frequent and cover larger areas.
➢ Under 4°C warming, the west coast and southern India projected to
shift to new, high-temperature climatic regimes, impacting agriculture.
➢ Potential for significant shifts in temperature patterns.
What can be done:
➢ Urban areas becoming "heat-islands," increasing temperatures.
➢ Urban planners must adopt measures to mitigate the heat-island effect.
➢ Implement strategies like green infrastructure and cool roofing to
counteract rising temperatures.

69. Changing Rainfall Patterns
What we know:
• Decline in monsoon rainfall observed since the 1950s.
• Increase in the frequency of heavy rainfall events.
What could happen:
• A 2°C rise in global temperatures may result in highly unpredictable Indian summer
monsoons.
• At 4°C warming, extremely wet monsoons, currently occurring once in 100 years,
projected to occur every 10 years by the century's end.
• Sudden monsoon changes may lead to more frequent droughts and increased flooding
across India.
• India's northwest coast to the southeastern coastal region may experience higher-than-
average rainfall.
• Dry years expected to become drier, while wet years will be wetter.
What can be done:
• Improve hydro-meteorological systems for better weather forecasting.
• Install flood warning systems to facilitate timely evacuations.
• Enforce building codes to ensure infrastructure and homes are resilient to extreme
weather events.

70. Droughts
What we know:
o Evidence suggests that parts of South Asia have experienced increased aridity
since the 1970s.
o There has been a rise in the number of drought events in the region.
o Droughts have severe consequences, with significant impacts on agriculture.
What could happen:
o Anticipated increase in the frequency of droughts, particularly in north-
western India, Jharkhand, Orissa, and Chhattisgarh.
o Crop yields expected to decline significantly due to extreme heat by the 2040s.
What can be done:
o Investments in Research and Development (R&D) for the development of
drought-resistant crop varieties.
o Development of strategies to mitigate the negative impacts of drought on
agriculture.

71. Groundwater
What we know:
▪ Over 60% of India's agriculture relies on rain-fed water sources, making the
country highly dependent on groundwater.
▪ Even without climate change, 15% of India's groundwater resources are
already overexploited, leading to concerns about sustainability.
What could happen:
▪ It is challenging to predict future groundwater levels, but falling water tables
are expected due to:
Increasing demand for water from a growing population.
Shift towards more affluent lifestyles.
Greater water demand from the services sector and industries.
What can be done:
▪ Encourage and incentivize the efficient use of groundwater resources.
▪ Implement policies and practices for sustainable groundwater management.

72. Glacier Melt
What we know:
❑ Glaciers in the northwestern Himalayas and Karakoram range have remained stable or advanced.
❑ Many Himalayan glaciers, primarily fed by the summer monsoon, have been retreating over the
past century.
What could happen:
❑ At 2.5°C warming, melting glaciers and snow loss may threaten the stability and reliability of
northern India's glacier-fed rivers, particularly the Indus and Brahmaputra.
❑ The Ganges is less reliant on glacier melt due to high monsoon rainfall downstream.
❑ Expected alterations in river flows:
Increased flows in spring during snowmelt.
Reduced flows in late spring and summer.
❑ Impact on irrigation and food production:
Indus basin: 209 million people.
Ganges basin: 478 million people.
Brahmaputra basin: 62 million people (2005 data).
What can be done:
❑ Major investments in water storage capacity needed to harness increased river flows in spring and
compensate for lower flows later on.
❑ Implement strategies for sustainable water management and adaptation to changing river
dynamics.

73. Agriculture and food security
What we know:
• World food prices are expected to rise due to factors like population growth, rising incomes, and
increased biofuel demand.
• Rising temperatures and lower rainfall at the end of the growing season have affected India's rice
production.
• Even without climate change, rice yields in India could have been almost 6% higher.
• Wheat yields in India and Bangladesh peaked around 2001 and haven't increased despite higher fertilizer
use.
• Extremely high temperatures (>34°C) negatively impact wheat yields.
What could happen:
• Seasonal water scarcity, rising temperatures, and sea water intrusion could threaten crop yields and food
security.
• Continued trends may result in substantial yield reductions for rice and wheat in the short and medium
term.
• Under 2°C warming by the 2050s, India may need to import over twice the amount of food grain than
would be required without climate change.
What can be done:
• Crop diversification to reduce reliance on vulnerable crops.
• Efficient water use and improved soil management practices.
• Development of drought-resistant crop varieties.
• Implementing sustainable agricultural practices to mitigate negative impacts on food security.

74. Energy Security
What we know:
❖ Climate-related impacts on water resources can affect India's dominant forms of power
generation: hydropower and thermal power.
❖ Both hydropower and thermal power generation rely on adequate water supplies for
effective operation.
❖ Thermal power plants require a constant supply of fresh cool water for their cooling
systems.
What could happen:
❖ Increasing variability and long-term decreases in river flows can challenge hydropower
plants.
❖ Higher risks of physical damage from climate-related natural disasters like landslides, flash
floods, and glacial lake outbursts.
❖ Decreased water availability and rising temperatures pose risks to thermal power generation.
What can be done:
❖ Projects must consider climatic risks in their planning and design.
❖ Implement measures to adapt power generation systems to changing climate conditions.

75. Water Security
What we know:
✓ Many parts of India are already facing water stress.
✓ Satisfying future water demand will be a significant challenge, even without climate change.
✓ Factors like urbanization, population growth, economic development, and increasing water
demand from agriculture and industry contribute to water stress.
What could happen:
✓ Increased variability in monsoon rainfall may exacerbate water shortages in certain regions.
✓ High water security threats are identified in central India, along the Western Ghats
mountain ranges, and in India's northeastern states.
What can be done:
✓ Implement improvements in irrigation systems.
✓ Promote water harvesting techniques.
✓ Adopt more efficient agricultural water management practices.
✓ These measures can help mitigate the risks associated with water security challenges.

76. Health
What we know:
➢ Climate change is expected to have significant health impacts in India.
➢ It may lead to increased malnutrition and related health disorders, particularly
affecting the poor.
➢ Child stunting is projected to increase by 35% by 2050 due to climate change.
➢ Vector-borne diseases like malaria and diarrheal infections may spread to new
areas.
➢ Heat waves are expected to result in a substantial rise in mortality and injuries
from extreme weather events.
What could happen:
➢ Health systems need to be strengthened in identified climate change hotspots.
What can be done:
➢ Improve hydro-meteorological systems for accurate weather forecasting.
➢ Install flood warning systems to facilitate timely evacuations.
➢ Enforce building codes to ensure infrastructure resilience to extreme weather
events.

77. Sea Level Rise in India
❖ Average sea level rise along the Indian coast: 1.7 mm/year (1900-2000).
❖ Implications: A 3 cm rise could lead to a 17-meter inland intrusion.
❖ Future rates: 5 cm/decade.
❖ Alarming impact: Potential loss of 300 meters of land in a century.
❖ Most susceptible nation to compounding sea level rise impacts.
❖ Unique factors: Indian Ocean's rapid surface warming, contributing to half of the
sea level rise.
❖ Indian Ocean's role: Fastest warming ocean.
❖ Cause: Half of sea level rise attributed to the volume of water expanding due to
rapid ocean warming.
❖ Limited impact: Glacier melt's contribution is not as high in the Indian context.
❖ Urgency for adaptation: Understanding the threat and preparing for the
compounded impacts of sea level rise in India.