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(1)Chris J. Czerkawski, Theoretical and Policy-Oriented Aspects of the External Debt Economics ([Berlin]:
Springer-Verlag Berlin; Heidelberg GmbH & Co. KG, 1991).
(2)Dani Rodrik, «Debt Management in Turkey: Any Lessons for Latin America?,» paper presented at:
World Bank/EDI Senior Policy Seminar on «Latin America: Facing the Challenges of Adjustment
and Growth,» Caracas, Venezuela, 19-22 July 1992.
(3)James D. Hamilton and Marjorie Flavin, «On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A
Framework for Empirical Testing,» American Economic Review, vol. 76, no. 4 (September 1986),
pp. 808-819.
(4)Y. Sawada, «Are the Heavily Indebted Countries Solvent? Tests of Intertemporal Borrowing
Constraints,» Journal of Development Economics, vol. 45, no. 2 (1994), pp. 325-337.
(5)Alfred Greiner and Willi Semmler, «An Inquiry into the Sustainability of German Fiscal Policy:
Some Time-Series Tests,» Public Finance Review, vol. 27, no. 2 (1999), pp. 220-236.
(6)Frederico G. Jayme, External Debt Sustainability: Empirical Evidence in Brazil (Cedeplar: UFMG,
2001).
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GyvvgvvQ<vv,yvvzvvAvvMvvavv+vvb,1989),hPedro Alba, Sherine Al-Shawarby and Farrukh Iqbal, «Fiscal and Public
Debt Sustainability in Egypt,» (MENA Working Paper Series; no. 38, World Bank, September 2004).
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(8)Pierre-Richard Age nor and Peter J. Montiel, «Credit Market Imperfections and the Monetary
Transmission Mechanism Part I: Fixed Exchange Rates,» (Research Discussion Paper Series; 76,
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(9)M. De Melo, «Fiscal Adjustment in High-Debt Countries,» Ricerche economiche, nos. 2-3 (1990),
pp. 251-272.
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(10)International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, «The Challenge of Maintaining Long-Term
External Debt Sustainability,» (Staff Working Paper, World Bank, Washington, DC, 2001).
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(11)Ibrahim Elbadawi, Benno Ndulu and Njuguna Ndung'u, «Debt Overhang and Economic Growth in
Sub-Saharan Africa,» paper presented at: External Finance for Low-Income Countries (conference),
edited by Zubair Iqbal and Ravi Kanbur (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund (IMF),
1997).
(12)Sebastian Edwards: «Debt Relief and Fiscal Sustainability,» (Working Paper; 8939, National
Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, May 2002), and «Debt Relief and Fiscal Sustainability,»
Review of World Economics, vol. 139, no. 1 (March 2003).
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(13)William Cline, «HIPC Debt Sustainability and Post-relief Lending Policy,» (Issue Paper on Debt
Sustainability, HIPC Unit, World Bank), <http://cgdev.axion-it.net/docs/Cline_Debt.pdf>.
(14)Claudio M. Loser, «External Debt Sustainability: Guidelines for Low-and Middle-Income
Countries,» (G-24 Discussion Paper Series; no. 26, United Nations Conference on Trade and
Development (UNCTAD), March 2004).
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GyvvZvv9OQGJ.hGvvavvQJEyvv)fvvtvvOCvvvDvvQ|vv#G@vvqvv9b|vvhGyvvOGFvv"vv+vv#Nfvv9OI$vv+vvwvvzvv?O*vv(!vv%vv9,vvv9fChyvv%vv9|vvh
Yv"vOhbGyv"vtvOGyvOhyv,fv9e1977,h@v]v}v#@vav=v+vu<vQ!v9|vHyvzvAvDv=v+vBG:svAvZv9Oj,@v;gG@vqv9bBLvQfv9e
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1990329479150,813709,5-4 55 8,72683,612
19953326612887,516839,8-3952,316181,22
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q
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GyvAvMvqv+v^GNFv}v9yv,Eyv)50<v9yv}v8v?|v#Gyvtv+v}v?GyvJv9yv+v?yvzvO*v#<vJvzv(dChd@v}v(R/*v(yv+v(1994
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GyvgvTvwvQ*v?yv}vZvQ,!vAv+vGv?|v(svqv%v9pv,IvQH@vJvQ*vQGyvwv(*vB.hvv9f|v#!vAv+vGv?Pyvx@vMvqv+v^IvGv~
GyvO*v#GyvMv9QFv,Gyvtv9Fv~<vWvwv{vv=v+vQ|v#51|vzv+v9QOh:Qfv9e1990Eyv)35,5|vzv+v9QOh:Qpv,fv9e
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GyM9QF+?Gy}ZQ*?,yvA9HG}$QGeG:sAZ9Oj,GygOO118(@WQ*#GyD9!,/!(p}=Q1997).
(18)Hamilton and Flavin, «On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for Empirical
Testing;» Sawada, «Are the Heavily Indebted Countries Solvent? Tests of Intertemporal Borrowing
Constraints,» and Jayme, External Debt Sustainability: Empirical Evidence in Brazil.
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12. Gyvv}vvAvvjvv+vvQGJG:svvAvvZvv9O*vv?GyvvAvv,@vvWvv}vv{GyvvZvv9OQGJ,hGyvv(GQOGJ,hGyvv"vv9@vvHGyvv}vvJvvzvv,.h*vvzLvvPGyvv"vv}vv(PL
GyZ(QIGy}=Ta?GyA9y+?:
(1)DETt = a+bTBt + ut
h*vvwvv(fGyvvWvvQWGyvv]vvQhQjhGyvvwvv9pvv,:SvvAvvOG|vv?GyvvJvvTvv9HGyvvGvv9QjCf@vvwvv(fGyvv}vvAvvjvv+vvQGJpvv,
Gyvv}vvgvv9Oyvv?(1)|vvAvv"vv9cvvQIGyvvAvvwvv9|vv{,hCf@vvwvv(f(b=1).hfvvzvv)Pyvvxpvv{fGyvvMvvavv(IG}hyvv)@vvwvv(f<vv{FvvQGA
GLA=9QGyTw(ffz)S;S{Gy=+9!9JGyOGLz?p,Gyg;s?.
1vvvvGy=+9!9Jh|g9yGA%9
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Yv9pv,GyvO*v#GyvMv9QFv,,hQYv+vOGyv}v+vRGfGyvAvGv9Qj(GyvZv9OQGJvvvvGyv(GQOGJ).h@vAv(GpvQ$vPgGyv=v+v9!v9J
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q
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Gyv}vAv(GpvQIpv,sv9fvOI<v+v9!v9JGyv=v"vxGyvOhyv,(World Development Indicators (WDI))hPyvx<vTv=v>
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Q<vvhSvv"vv(*vv?fvv#GyvvqvvAvvQIGyvvTvv9<vvtvv?yvvzvvgvv9eGyvv}vv9yvv,1999/2000,h$vv(|vv9*vvGvvgvv{EFvv}vv9yvv,Gyvv}vvWvv9$vvOGJ
Gyvv}vvAvv9Ivv?pvv,$vvPgGyvvJvv9yvv?25|vvWvv9$vvOIpvvtvvb,<vv9Nvv9pvv?Eyvv)CfGyvv}vvWvv9$vvOGJQ<vvhGyvvTvv"vv(*vv?:@vvjvvavv,
GyvqvAvQGJGyvTv9<vtv?GyvAv,Vv%vOJG@vqv9sv9J|vZvQ|vh!v9Oj<v9Q*vU,hESvtv9W<vgv^GyvO*v(fGyvMv9QFv+v?<vgvO
IQHGyMz+HGyD9!+?.
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yz=(Gs,p,Gy}g9Oy?.
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yz}g9Oy?(2)<9SAMOGe|g+9Q(AIC) Akaike.
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(1970vvvv2005).
h*;IeCfGy}g9O:JGy}TAMO|?p,GyAtO*Q$,fz)GyA(Gy,:
D xt = b xt-1 mtGy}g9Oy?Ohf|tahChG@G9gR|",
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13. D xt = a + b xt-1 mtGy}g9Oy?<{OL9d|tahOhfG@G9gR|",
D xt = a + b xt-1 + dT + mtGy}g9Oy?<{OL9d|tahhG@G9gR|",
I+ED|Wj{GyqQhbG}hy),xGy}Aj+Q|J{G:LA=9Q.
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(1970vvvv2005)
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R|",
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-2,138680 -2,077259 -1,772989 TB
-1,543418 2,139613 1,762005 GDP
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-3,06647 -2,767483 -2,562658 DET GLA=9QGyAw9|{|#GyOQF?G}hy)
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-2,769743 -2,627557 0,978674 GDP
-3,5514 vvvv2,9527 vvvv1,9514 Gyt+~GyJQF?y;LA=9Qf"O5<9y}8?
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14. pv,Gyv}vQIvzv?G}hyv):!v(FvO|vAvGv&@v"v9cvQGyvAvwv9|v{(Ch|vAvGv&Gyv}vAvjv+vQGJGyv}vAvwv9|vzv?)GyvPj*v}vDv{
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GyM9QF+?fz)QY+OGy}+RGfGyAG9QjhGy"9@HGy}Jz,GNF}9y,.hv9!B!A9FHGyAtO*Qv}9*z,:
DETt = -6.646 - 0.80609 TBt + 0.6707 GDP
(-1.76600) (-1.0458) (8.1360)
n = 36 R
2
= 0.7266 ser = 6.98 DW = 0.1235
F = 34.5527
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1997298496000002.69E+101.49E+10119000000145339996161.95E+1066642690048
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200528948.8000002.77E+101.1E+10-6006090256191448700932.18E+101.02893E+11
Gy}ZOQ:World Bank, World Development Indicators (WDI) Database, CD-ROM, 2006.
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