This deck describes the ForeC-Nepal online tool and services provided by the Stimson Center

1. Overview:
ForeC-Nepal
Early Warning for Cascading Hazards
Energy, Water, Sustainability Program
Stimson Center
Washington, DC

2. Debris floods and other
cascading hazards have
long posed serious risks to
communities and
infrastructure in Nepal,
and these risks are
increasing due to climate
change.

3. ForeC-Nepal helps provide near-real time monitoring and early warning for cascading
Himalayan hazards and creates a user-friendly platform for multi-hazard data analysis
• Identifies the most hazardous
watersheds
• Visualizes risks of cascading
hazards
• Provides near-real time hydromet
monitoring
• Generates alerts based on
customized thresholds
• Visualizes geohazards, exposure,
localized community-collected data
• Tracks events and records past data

4. Supported by Stimson’s
Core Services
• Geohazard mapping and risk scoring
using Stimson group process
• Hazard chain analysis and modeling of
potential events
• Community and infrastructure
vulnerability assessment
• Tasked high-resolution SAR imagery and
analysis of disaster events or emergent
risks (near real-time response)
• Capacity building for local data collection
on shifting hazard conditions

5. Analytical Input Specifications
GIS Data
•Vetted, published GIS layers on hazards, infrastructure,
socio-economic data
•GIS Hazard layer updates via optical and SAR imagery
(biweekly or event-driven during monsoon)
•Geolocated community-collected data, QA/QC vetted
by NGO partners using Survey123 tools (driven by
changes in conditions)
Remote Sensing/Satellite Imagery
•Planetscope 3m optical imagery (daily)
•Sentinel-1 10m SAR imagery (6-10 days)
•Umbra 1m SAR imagery (tasked, 5-6 hours)
Near-real time climate data
•OpenWeather current observation and forecasting
climate indicators (real-time API, hourly); integrating
ICIMOD HIWAT data (54-hour forecasts, daily)
•Microwave-derived wetness, temperature, snow cover
(weekly, compared against 30yr historical)
Tasked high-res satellite of Sikkim disaster
SAR landform change analysis of Sikkim disaster

6. Outcomes and Impacts
• Inform anticipatory action, save lives, and
reduce loss and damage
• Demonstrate areas in need of greater
investment in DRR capacity building
• Inform planning and climate adaptation
policy for infrastructure development
• Facilitate greater collaboration between
community, NGO, and government efforts –
and improve coordination for data
management
• Provide remote-sensing support to
organizations with meaningful community-
engaged EWS programs
• Innovate new methods for multihazard
analysis working with scientific partners
• Support Government of Nepal partners in
data management and EWS design

7. • April 2024: ForeC Tool official launch in Kathmandu
• Pre-monsoon: Start ForeC service coverage in Sindhupalchowk, Rasuwa, Dolakha
• Monsoon 2024: Expand service into Karnali Province / full coverage of Bagmati Province
• Build new strategic partnerships for evaluation of select high-risk watershed
• Provide on-call service for other live events
• Develop new services, hazard layers, continue to validate and refine methodology
• Facilitate webinars and workshops on multi-hazard assessment and EWS practices
Stimson Workplan: Phase 2

8. Project Team
Alan Basist
President, Eyes on Earth
Meteorologist
Dr. Jakob Steiner
Geoscientist, Expert in
Mountain Hydrology
Kaushal Gnyawali
Geotechnical Engineer,
Landslides Expert
Shreyasha Paudel
Computer Scientist
AI & Data Practices Expert
Dr. Austin Lord
Project Lead
Anthropologist
Courtney Weatherby
Deputy Director of Energy,
Water, and Sustainability
Brian Eyler
Director of Energy, Water
and Sustainability
Regan Kwan
Data Lead
GIS Specialist
Dr. Basanta Raj Adhikari
Engineering Geologist &
Geomorphology Expert

9. Contact us:
Austin Lord: alord@stimson.org
Brian Eyler: beyler@stimson.org
https://www.stimson.org/project/early-warning-systems-for-cascading-disasters-in-nepal/