The research service provides an analysis of the European urban rail rolling stock market and focuses on the trends and technologies to be used. The study segments the market by metro, light rail and APM systems and identifies the opportunities for new rolling stock in each of these segments. It further provides an in-depth trend and scenario based forecast by segment .

1. Strategic Analysis of Growth Opportunities in the Western
European Urban Rail Market for Rolling Stock Systems
Strong Orders in Light Rail and Automated People Mover Systems is Driving Growth
M77E-18
May 2013

2. 2M77E-18
Shyam Raman
Research Analyst-Rail
Automotive & Transportation
+1-4164952686
shyam.raman@frost.com
Contact the Research Team
Lead Analyst

3. 3M77E-18
Contents
Section Slide Numbers
Executive Summary 4
Research Scope, Objectives, Background and Methodology 15
Definitions and Segmentation 22
Overview of Trends in the Urban Rail Market 27
Mega Trends and Industry Convergence Implications 43
Urban Rail Market
• External Challenges: Drivers and Restraints 57
Light Rail Rolling Stock 66
• Forecast and Trends 78
• Market Share and Competitive Analysis 87
Metro Rail Rolling Stock 96
• Forecast and Trends 104
• Market Share and Competitive Analysis 112
Automated People Mover (APM)Systems 121
• Forecast and Trends 128
• Market Share and Competitive Analysis 132
Conclusions 138
Appendix 145

4. 4M77E-18
Executive Summary

5. 5M77E-18
Executive Summary—Key Findings
Automated people movers (APMs) are the fastest growing urban rail segment while light rail has the majority of
infrastructure projects.
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
After a decade of flurried development, growth in light rail systems are stabilizing as most
municipalities have installed light rails.
Though the number of light rail projects is decreasing as compared to the previous decade, light
rail still has the maximum number of greenfield projects.
1
2
APMs represent the fastest growing segment and will have increased their presence by more than
three times in 2021.
3
A total of 406 urban areas have urban rail in active service in countries considered in this study.
The size of the urban rail network expanded by 2,843 km between 2003 and 2012. Metro rail has
higher opportunities in track upgrades, extensions, and signaling systems.
4
63.4 percent of all urban rail projects installed in the last 10 years were light rail systems. A total of
46 new light rail systems have been developed over the last 20 years (1993‒2012) while 30 new
systems are expected to come up in the next 10 years (2013‒2022).
5
European metro rail systems are more active in purchasing new rolling stock as compared to light
rail. No metro fleet operator currently operating has any fleet that is more than 35 years old (on an
average). Italy, France, and the United Kingdom are expected to place rolling stock orders to
replace 1,268 metro rolling stock by 2015.
6
Alstom, Siemens, and Bombardier face threats from Ansaldo, CAF, and Vossloh, which are
significantly increasing their market presence with strong orders for rolling stock.

6. 6M77E-18
Executive Summary—Key Trends and Predictions
A total of 46 new light rail systems have been developed over the last 20 years (1993‒2012) and 30
new systems are expected to be built over the next 10 years (2013‒2022).
France continues to be the hot spot for light rail, with four projects coming to be operational by the end
of the forecast period. Light rail is likely to witness a resurgence in Sweden and Denmark.
APMs are the fastest growing segment and will have increased their presence by more than three times
in 2021. Although APMs are guideway-based systems, heavy APMs are now seen as a transition
between light rail and metro rail systems.
Dutch and Italian orders are expected to re-launch heavy APMs back into the mainstream urban
transport category from automated airport systems.
Italy is the largest market for APMs. Six of the seven greenfield APM projects are in Italy. The cities of
Brescia, Milan, and Rome are all expected to have operational APM systems by 2015.
European metro rail systems are relatively more active in purchasing new rolling stock as compared to
light rail. No fleet operator currently operating has any fleet that is more than 35 years old. Italy, France,
and the United Kingdom are expected to place rolling stock orders to replace 1,268 rolling stock by
2015.
The metro rail rolling stock is moderately aging, with 42.4 percent of the fleet being more than 20 years
old. More than 790 rolling stock are expected to be retired by the end of 2015. Stiff competition is
expected between Alstom’s Metropolis, Bombardier’s Movia, and Siemens’s Inspiro Product lines.
LightRailMetroAPM
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

7. 7M77E-18
Executive Summary—Urban Rail has Evolved to Newer Application
Formats
Conventional tramway and metro rail systems are giving way to systems such as tram-trains and APM systems.
Urban Rail Market: No. of Greenfield Urban Rail Projects, Western Europe, 2011
• France is still a major driving force for tram development.
• Tram on tyres is looked upon as an ideal solution for operating feeder routes or for upgrading significant
bus routes to urban rail.
• Translohr has single handedly carved its dominance in a niche market.
• Tram trains are replacing commuter rail systems with connecting city centers with sub-urban or other
urban areas
• Light rail systems with segregated rights of way are seen as being ideal for mid-sized cities (Area: 120 sq
km/Population of 300,000) that are witnessing explosive growth and will become megacities in the future.
• Italy and Spain each have three light rail projects that have been approved.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Tramway LRT APM Tram on Tyres Tram-Train Monorail
No.ofGreenfieldProjects
42.5%
17.5% 17.5% 15.0%
5.0%
2.5%
• Tramways are witnessing high favorability among municipalities.
• Quick installation times with low cost are the major drivers for rapid growth.
• Cities like Sevilla have successfully implemented a city-wide tram system.
• Ansaldo dominates the APM systems market with almost seven projects at the end of
the planning phase. Six of these projects are for Italian cities.
Note: % values in chart
show respective market
shares of the new
projects.
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2011. Frost & Sullivan analysis.

8. 8M77E-18
• After a decade of flurried development, growth in light
rail systems is stabilizing as most municipalities have
installed light rails.
• Further expansion depends on passenger adoption
and demand.
• By 2021, France, Italy, and Spain will have a total of
41 greenfield light rail systems constructed since
2000. (93.2 percent of the total market).
Executive Summary—Light Rail is the Top Urban Rail Choice
Although the number of light rail projects has reduced as compared to the previous decade, the maximum
number of greenfield projects are still light rail projects. APM systems constitute the second fastest growing
market.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1980–1989 1990–1999 2000–2009 2010–2019
No.ofGreenfieldProjects
APM Light Rail Metro Monorail PRT
“Metro and its costs are unjustified and unwarranted unless you are talking about city sizes
comparable to London, Paris, and Berlin. When we upgrade, we will choose an APM
systems/light metro solution and complement it with new tram/Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) lines.”
– EU Operator & City Council
Urban Rail Market: Trend of Greenfield Urban Rail Projects, Western Europe, 1980‒2019
• APMs represent the fastest growing segment
and will have increased their presence by more
than three times in 2021.
Though the number of projects is
decreasing as compared to the
previous decade, light rail still has the
maximum number of greenfield
projects.
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

9. 9M77E-18
Executive Summary—Urban Rail Technology Roadmap
Energy efficiency is a top priority in urban rail systems. Automatic driverless operation and maximized power
regeneration are the key technology targets.
Urban Rail Market: Metro Rail Technology Roadmap, Western Europe, 2011‒2021
Control&
Signalling
TractionRollingStock
2011 2013 2017 2021
Communications-Based Train Control + Global
Positioning SystemRadio infrastructure in wayside
GPS-based control of traffic signals
Aluminium and stainless steel bodies.
Composites to reduce weight
Broadband wireless connectivity to control
centre. Real-time CCTV and monitoring
Electro-pneumatic friction brakes blended with electric regenerative braking. Anti-skid
valves. Brushless 3 phase induction motors. VVVF control
AC Induction Motors
Catenary-free, induction-based
power transmission
Automatic coupler Completely bi-directional trams
Super-capacitors enabled pantograph-less inter-stop tram propulsion
(for example, the Alstom STEEM project)
IGBT Control
Permanent magnet motors
PWM Rectifiers
Lead Acid Batteries Lithium Ion/Sodium Halide/Super-capacitor
Line of sight for trams
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

10. 10M77E-18
Executive Summary—Forecast of Light Rail Rolling Stock Deliveries
France continues to be the hot spot for light rail rolling stock, with four projects likely to be completed by the end
of the forecast period. Light rail systems are likely to witness a resurgence in Sweden and Denmark.
2011
2021
Urban Rail Market: Total Expected Deliveries of Light Rail Rolling Stock, Western Europe, 2011–2021
21.5%
57.8%
11.5%
4.5%
1.8%
2.9%
23.9%
51.5%
12.0%
6.5%
2.2%
3.2%
0.6%16.5%
2.9%
0.7%
2.3%
5.7%
4.1% 2.8%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Denmark France Germany Italy Spain Sweden UK
ExpectedDeliveriesofLightRailRolling
Stock
Expected Deliveries of Light Rail Rolling Stock, 2011-2021
Denmark France Germany Italy Spain Sweden The United Kingdom
The 12 km long Swedish Aarhus
light rail project will link two
existing rail lines north and south
of the city, enabling the creation of
a 103 km tram train network.
• Tramways in the cities of Tours and Besançon are expected to commence operations by 2015. Lines
3b,5,6,7 and 8 (planned total of 48.3 km served by 107 train-sets) of the Tramway in Île-de-France are
likely to be completed by 2015.
• The highest number of deliveries is expected to take place in France followed by Germany and Spain.
• Denmark and Sweden are expected to invest in new light rail infrastructure towards the mid-term of the
forecast period.
Note: % values in the bars on the left and right side show the market share.
Note: % values in the center chart show a CAGR
(2011-2021) of rolling stock deliveries for each
country
CAGR
1.8%
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2011. Frost & Sullivan analysis.

11. 11M77E-18
Executive Summary—Forecast of Metro Rail Rolling Stock Deliveries
The highest number of deliveries is expected to be in France followed by the United Kingdom and Spain.
Germany is expected to experience growth towards the mid-term of the forecast period.
2011 2021
Urban Rail Market: Total Expected Deliveries of Metro Rail Rolling Stock, Western Europe, 2011–2021
7..%
16.8%
3.4%
27.6%
18.8%
5.8%
20.6%
6.8%
17.1%
3.4%
28.7%
18.5%
5.9%
19.6%
CAGR
1.3%
0.7%
1.7%
1.1%
1.5%
0.7%
1.5%
1.4%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Denmark France Germany Italy Spain Sweden The United
Kingdom
ExpectedDeliveriesofMetroRailRolling
Stock
Expected Deliveries of Metro Rail Rolling Stock,2011-2021
Denmark France Germany Italy Spain Sweden The United Kingdom
Germany: The Kleinprofil G and A3L92 rolling stock series from Berlin U-Bahn are expected to be replaced
by the end of the forecast period.
Spain: The forecast period is expected to witness the completion of several urban rail projects sanctioned in
the late 2000s. For example, Line 3 of Metro Bilbao, Lines 9 and 10 of Barcelona Metro, and Malaga Metro.
France and the United Kingdom: The forecast period is expected to witness the retirement and
replacement of the 1973 Stock used in the London Underground Piccadilly Line (528 units) and the Z5300
and MS61 series (717 units) from the Paris RER.
Note: % values in the center chart show
CAGR (2011‒2021) of rolling stock
deliveries for each country
Note: % values in the bars on the left and right side show the market share. Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2011. Frost & Sullivan analysis.

12. 12M77E-18
Executive Summary—Forecast of APM Systems Rolling Stock Deliveries
The highest number of deliveries likely to be in Italy and Denmark. As A relatively newer system with few rolling
stock in the installed base, any change in the numbers reflects higher growth rate values.
2011 2021
Urban Rail Market: Total Expected Deliveries of APM Rolling Stock, Western Europe, 2011–2021
CAGR
6.7%
6.5%
0.9% 13.3%
20.2%
13.8%
0.8% 0.9%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Denmark France Germany Italy Spain Sweden The United
Kingdom
ExpectedDeliveriesofAPMRollingStock
Expected Deliveries of APM Rolling Stock, 2011-2021
Denmark France Germany Italy Spain Sweden UK
18.5%
3.5%
32.4%
9.8%
34.4%
18.2%
19.8%
2.1%
18.5%
Denmark: Copenhagen’s Cityringen lines are expected to be completed by 2018, marking the end of the
second stage of the city’s metro.
Italy: Cities are expected to expand their metros with new lines and almost all systems are likely to be
Ansaldo’s Driverless Metro solutions.
Germany and France: Siemens NeoVAL is expected to find a launch partner by the end of the forecast
period.
Note: % values in the center
chart show the CAGR (2011-
2021) of rolling stock deliveries
for each country.
Note: % values in the bars on the left and right side show the market share.
1.5%
2.7%
32.3%
6.5%
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2011. Frost & Sullivan analysis.

13. 13M77E-18
Executive Summary—Light Rail is the Most Contested Segment
Monorail has been almost abandoned in the European context. After the metro, the APM segment has been
receiving the highest attention.
Manufacturer Metro Light Rail Monorail APM PRT
Alstom
Ansaldo
Bombardier
CAF
Firema
Leitner
Siemens
Skoda
Solaris
Stadler
Talgo
Translohr
Ultra
Vossloh
Urban Rail Market: Rolling Stock OEM Focus Areas, Western Europe, 2011
Note: Focus area strength for each original equipment manufacturer (OEM) is calculated based on the percentage of its
rolling stock present in each segment; PRT: Personal Rapid Transit , CAF: Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles
< 10%
~ 25%
~ 50%
~ 100%
~ 75%
Legend:
Siemens is expected to increase its focus
on the metro and APM segments.
Bombardier is expected to launch a new
APM platform to compete with Ansaldo.
Alstom is the fiercest competitor in both
the light rail and metro segments.
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

14. 14M77E-18
Executive Summary—Light Rail Rolling Stock Segment Witnesses
Higher Interest Levels
CAF, Alstom, Ansaldo, and Translohr are likely to be the top performers in rolling stock deliveries up till 2015.
Metro
APM
Light Rail
2012 2013 2014 2015
CAF
Urbos 2
CAF
Urbos 3
CAF
A35
Alstom Citadis
Siemens NF8U
Stadler
Variotram
SSB DT8:12
Bombardier
Flexity 2
Translohr STE6CAF
Urbos 2
CAF
Urbos 3
Alstom/Bombardier
HHA Type DT5
Ansaldo Breda
Driverless Metro
Ansaldo to supply railcars to
Copenhagen’s Metro lines M3 and M4
to carry 240,000 passengers daily
CAF is Alstom’s new threat: Entering
three new markets: France, Sweden,
and the United Kingdom, with a 29.5
share of all the light rail orders.
Translohr STE3
By 2014, Lines T5 and T6 in Paris will
be served by 213 Translohr Railcars.
Translohr has a 12.4 percent share of all
light rail orders.
Urban Rail Market: Overview of Rolling Stock Orders, Western Europe, 2012‒2015
Image source: Alstom, Ansaldo, Bombardier, CAF, Siemens, Stadler, Solaris, Translohr. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
SolarisTramino

15. 15M77E-18
Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and
Methodology

16. 16M77E-18
Research Scope
France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom are regarded as the key centers of urban rail
development, often setting standards for the urban rail market.
Urban Rail Rolling Stock: Light rail systems, metro rail systems, and
APMs (Guide way based train system)
Topics Covered
2012 to 2021Forecast Period
2011 to 2021Study Period
2011Base Year
Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, and the United
Kingdom
Geographical Scope
49.2% 48.2%
2.1% 0.5% 0.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
Metro Light Rail APM Monorail Personal Rapid
Transit
RollingStockinActive
Service
Monorail and PRT systems are
not covered in this study
Urban Rail Market: Percent of Rolling Stock in Service, Western Europe, 2011
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2011 Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2011. Frost & Sullivan analysis.

17. 17M77E-18
Research Aims and Objectives
Aim
The objective of this study is to evaluate the revenue growth opportunities available for rolling stock
manufacturers. The study offers strategic market sizing Forecast for the rolling stock segment, including
the market drivers and restraints as well as the market share analysis in the metro, light rail, and APM
segments.
Objectives
• The study provides a strategic overview of the urban rail market in Western Europe. It includes the key
technology trends as well as market drivers and restraints for rolling stock.
• It provides the market size and Forecast of rolling stock deliveries for the light rail, metro, and guide way
segments as well as the regional breakdown from 2011 to 2021.
• The study discusses the revenue Forecast of the urban rail rolling stock market by segment and the
regional breakdown from 2011 to 2021.
• The competitor analysis sections analyzes the competitive factors, competitor market shares, and
product portfolio analysis and capabilities.
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

18. 18M77E-18
Key Questions This Study Will Answer
Who are the leading rolling stock suppliers in the metro, light rail, and guide way segments in
Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, and Sweden?
What are the new opportunities in rolling stock for urban rail?
Which way is the urban rail signalling technology headed? Will radio-based signalling witness a rapid
uptake in the urban rail environment? If so, in which environment and segment will it witness the
uptake?
What is the market share of the rolling stock in urban rail applications? Who is the market leader in
each rolling stock segment in each country?
What is the business environment of the Western European urban rail market? What are its market
dynamics, and its impact on mobility and urbanization?
Urban Rail Market: Key Questions This Study Will Answer, Western Europe, 2011
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

19. 19M77E-18
Year
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Research Background
This research study strengthens our coverage of the rail industry.
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

20. 20M77E-18
Company Designation
Centro Media Manager
Thales
Managing Director, Market
Analyst
Invensys Rail Ltd Head of Innovation
RATP
External Business
Development Manager
Vectus Ltd. CTO, MD
ULTra PRT Financial Controller
2getthere Commercial Director
Rock Project Project Manager
TFL UK Project Manager
Siemens plc Project Manager
Thales Market Analyst
Ansaldo STS VP (Investor Relations)
Bombardier Chief Innovation Officer
Ansaldo STS
Director Worldwide of
Signaling BU
Siemens Partner
ALSTOM
TRANSPORT
Deputy Vice-President
Investor Relations,
Director, Urban Strategy
Research Methodology: Frost &
Sullivan’s research services are based on
secondary and primary research data.
Secondary Research: Extraction of
information from existing research studies
and project material within the Frost &
Sullivan database, to include data and
information gathered form technical
papers, specialized magazines, seminars
and internet research.
Primary Research: More than 10
interviews have been conducted over the
phone by senior consultants/industry
analysts with original equipment
suppliers, regulation authorities, and
distributors. Primary research has
accounted for 80.0 percent of the total
research.
Research Methodology
Company Designation
Skoda
Transportation
Vice-President, Sales
Keolis Nordic AB
Chairman of the
Board
AB Stockholms
Spårvägar
Chairman
Urban Rail Market: Key Industry Participants, Western Europe, 2011
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

21. 21M77E-18
Key OEM/Participant Groups Compared in this Study
Group OEMs/Divisions
Alstom Alstom Transportation
Bombardier Bombardier Transportation
Siemens Siemens Mobility
Thales Thales Transportation
Invensys Invensys Rail
Finmeccanica Ansaldo STS, Ansaldo Breda
Group OEMs/Divisions
Vossloh Vossloh Kiepe
CAF CAF
Stadler Stadler
The OEM groups and companies compared in this study are as follows:
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.