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Purpose of This Presentation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
NOT  the Purpose of This Presentation ,[object Object],[object Object]
Also  NOT  the Purpose… ,[object Object],[object Object]
The World Suspects That Bees are Declining Shrill Carder Bumblebee Distribution Data from NBN, with particular thanks to  BWARS .
The Problem We do   not know the magnitude of the crisis nor have identified how and where to target our conservation measures because until now, there is NO GLOBAL MONITORING PROGRAM
Outline of Things to Come in This Presentation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What Makes a Good Pollinator Monitoring Program? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Monitoring - Goals ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Most Important ,[object Object],[object Object]
2 Categories of Problems ,[object Object],[object Object]
Goals:  Define What You Want Out of Your Monitoring Program Then We Can Have a Talk About Sample Sizes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
3 Factors Affect Your Sample Size ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
A Measure of Variability ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Variance = Variability in Monitoring ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Defining Precision in Monitoring ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What do you Mean by Trend? Your Answer Affects the # of Samples you Need ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Our Favorite Monitoring Objectives ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Time Conquers All Some Broad Results of our Simulations ,[object Object],[object Object]
Those Nasty Zeros ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Some Examples of How Counts of Animals and Plants Vary:  Mean Percent CV’s Taken from the Literature ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
CV’s are Very Predictable (at least if you are an amphibian). Correlation between CV of amphibian counts during first and last 5 years of long-term count series
Some Background on Bee Sampling:  How have Bees been Sampled in the Past? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
A Bit More about Pan Type of Traps ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Monitoring – General Bee Issues to Consider ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
So, Back to Bees and Calculating What Should be Sampled and How ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
We Thank These Generous People who Shared their Published and Unpublished Data ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Definitions:  How we  Calculated the summary CVs Used in the Next Set of Slides for an Individual Site ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
More Definitions ,[object Object],[object Object]
Relationship Bee Abundance and CV of Species Richness at a Site – A Nice, Highly Significant, Negative Relationship Log Total Numbers CV of  Richness
Relationship Between Species Richness and CV of Species Richness – Basically the Same Relationship, Just a Bit Noisier Mean Species Richness CV of Richness
Relationship Between Species Richness and CV of Bee Abundance – Similar relationship, but looser still Mean Species Richness CV of Abundance
Relationship Between Mean Bee Abundance and CV of Abundance - Ditto Log Total Numbers CV Abundance
Possible Take Home Messages of The Last 4 Graphs ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Which Bee Survey Technique Minimizes Variance of Bee Counts? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Comparison of Techniques: Bee Abundance – No Real Difference Between Techniques Bait  Bowl  Funnel  Malaise  Moericke  Netting  Trap  Visual CV
Comparison of Techniques: Individual Species Abundance – Note low CVs for Bait and High for Funnel and Moericke Bait  Bowl  Funnel  Malaise  Moericke  Netting  Trap  Visual CV
Comparison of Techniques: Species Richness – About the same, except for bait, which is quite low Bait  Bowl  Funnel  Malaise  Moericke  Netting  Trap  Visual CV
Comparison of Techniques: Top 5 Species:  Same interpretation as the last one Bait  Bowl  Funnel  Malaise  Moericke  Netting  Trap  Visual CV
OK, Now Something a Little Different ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Bowl CVs:  Individual Species Abundance – Super High!
Netting CVs: Individual Species Abundance – Whoa, Nellie ! Also Super High!
Bowl CVs: Top 5 Species – Better, Much Lower
Netting CVs: Top 5 Species – Similar, Better, Much Lower
Bowl CVs: Bee Abundance –  Oh My, Quite Nice!
Netting CVs: Bee Abundance – Sweet!
Summary- Which Technique? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What Measure of  a Population to Use? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
To Sum Up the Previous Slide ,[object Object],[object Object]
How many bowl traps in a transect should we use? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Accumulation curves for pan traps Examples of
Summary- How many traps? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What type of pan traps should we use? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Size of pan traps df=6,147, F-value=0.20, p-value=0.977   12 oz 6 oz 1oz 2 oz 3.25 oz 4 oz 0.7 oz No significant difference
Is pan trap color really important? Compare how many individuals are caught in different colored bowls for key species
Color of Pan Trap - Numerous trials on East Coast of U.S. Blue UV Yellow UV Pale Blue UV Pale Blue White White UV Blue Yellow
Data for The Following Slides  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Augochlorella aurata
Andrena nasonii
Andrena violae
Calliopsis andreniformis
Are bees more attracted to fluorescent or non-fluorescent colored pan traps? Data from Sam Droege Note, that bowls were  placed adjacent to one another Genus   non-uv uv Agapostemon 0 1 Andrena 0 1 Apis 0 1 Augochlora 1 1 Augochorella 1 3 Bombus 0 3 Calliopsis 2 6 Ceratina 4 11 Anthididum 0 3 Halictus 2 11 Heriades 0 1 Hylaeus 2 2 Lasioglossum 13 77 Melissodes 1 4 Osmia 1 0 Perdita 1 1 Sphecodes 0 2 Total 28 128
Color is important ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Does Adding Scents or Sweets in the Water in the Bowl Boost Catch? Nope – Data from 10 trials with 5 replicates of each category – Maryland data
Does Adding Salt Increase the Number of Bees Captured? Not in Maryland it doesn’t - Same set up as last time, but note that salt in the New World tropics will attract bees but this has not been tried in traps Treatments are different concentrations of salt in bowl traps
Scent is  not  important ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
How far apart should bowls be? ,[object Object],Colored dots indicate trap locations and colors indicate the number of bees captured, from these data traps were determined to not compete with each other when spaced >3m apart
When should we sample? Significant effect of time of year From Russell et al. powerline study, note that colors denote significant treatments yet samples fell into date groups in CCA ordination space
Change in Captures in May 2-Day Time Intervals Sampling period Data from previously mentioned USDA study
What should we be measuring? The upcoming slides tell the story ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Impact of Category and Pooling on the CV Note that pooling across sites had relatively little impact on CV
Impact of Category and Pooling on the CV Note that pooling across replicates and sites had little impact on CV
Impact of Category and Combining Netting and Bowling on the CV Note that pooling netting and bowl trapping data has a slight but positive impact on CV
Impact of Category and Pooling across Sites Note that pooling has a consistent slight positive impact on CV
Impact of Measuring Number of Occupied Cells vs Stems on CV Note that using the number of occupied stems rather than the total number of occupied cells has a slight but consistent positive impact on CV
Impact of Pooling across sites on CV Very Interesting!  In this case pooling across sites has a large positive impact on CV
Impact of Pooling From Individual Month to All Year Pooling across all the months of data Roubic’s site has a relatively large positive impact on CV
Impact of Category on CV
Impact of Category on CV
Impact of Category and Pooling across Sites on CV Note the slight but relatively consistent positive impact on CV by pooling sites
CV Lessons ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
There are quite a few other taxa that end up in bowls that could be sampled. Taiwan Bowl Captures
How many sites do we need to sample and for how long? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Warning – Statistics Ahead ,[object Object],[object Object]
Sample Size Calculations  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
We use Simulations to Estimate Samples Sizes (Really we are estimating statistical power here, but that’s a detail – Statistical power is the ability to statistically detect a change if one were occurring) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Analytical Technique ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Created populations with known declines
We Varied CVs, Effect sizes and Sampling Intervals ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
HOW MANY SAMPLES DO WE NEED TO DETECT TRENDS IN POLLINATOR POPULATIONS?
No surprise here, its easier to detect a large decline than a small one, note that this is just a 2-year study
EFFECT SIZE Small decline Big decline
Low CV – 2 years
Low CV – 5 years
Med CV - 2
Med CV - 5
High CV - 2 No surprise here, if you have high variability in your CVs you need tons of samples to detect a change
High CV - 5
Effect of Study Length on Power for Low CV   No surprise here….its easy to detect a trend over a longer period of time than a shorter one
Power results Using the sign test, we have good power to detect even a 2% decline within 5 years across a range of CVs with only 100-300 sample sites. We have slightly more power if we use a paired t-test.
More Lessons from Power Analyses ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
More Thinking ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
So to Summarize our Summaries ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Difference Between Global, Regional, and Local Bee Sampling ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
More on That Thought ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Distribution of Various  Melitoma  Species from www.discoverlife.org Photo from University of Georgia
Ah…. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Our Basic Sampling Plan for any Large Area  (e.g., park, county, state, small country)– This will detect a high percentage of species, detect modest declines in trends in total number of bees, species richness, and common bee species over 10 year or greater intervals ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
A Global or Continental Sampling Plan ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Where to Sample – Things to Consider in Terms of What you want to Talk About ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Sampling:  Random, Systematic, Chosen ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What to count ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Specimen Processing ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
You can Analyze Monitoring Data in Many Ways ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What You Will Get ,[object Object],[object Object]

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FAO Bee Survey Design Talk

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  • 4. The World Suspects That Bees are Declining Shrill Carder Bumblebee Distribution Data from NBN, with particular thanks to BWARS .
  • 5. The Problem We do not know the magnitude of the crisis nor have identified how and where to target our conservation measures because until now, there is NO GLOBAL MONITORING PROGRAM
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  • 21. CV’s are Very Predictable (at least if you are an amphibian). Correlation between CV of amphibian counts during first and last 5 years of long-term count series
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  • 29. Relationship Bee Abundance and CV of Species Richness at a Site – A Nice, Highly Significant, Negative Relationship Log Total Numbers CV of Richness
  • 30. Relationship Between Species Richness and CV of Species Richness – Basically the Same Relationship, Just a Bit Noisier Mean Species Richness CV of Richness
  • 31. Relationship Between Species Richness and CV of Bee Abundance – Similar relationship, but looser still Mean Species Richness CV of Abundance
  • 32. Relationship Between Mean Bee Abundance and CV of Abundance - Ditto Log Total Numbers CV Abundance
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  • 35. Comparison of Techniques: Bee Abundance – No Real Difference Between Techniques Bait Bowl Funnel Malaise Moericke Netting Trap Visual CV
  • 36. Comparison of Techniques: Individual Species Abundance – Note low CVs for Bait and High for Funnel and Moericke Bait Bowl Funnel Malaise Moericke Netting Trap Visual CV
  • 37. Comparison of Techniques: Species Richness – About the same, except for bait, which is quite low Bait Bowl Funnel Malaise Moericke Netting Trap Visual CV
  • 38. Comparison of Techniques: Top 5 Species: Same interpretation as the last one Bait Bowl Funnel Malaise Moericke Netting Trap Visual CV
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  • 40. Bowl CVs: Individual Species Abundance – Super High!
  • 41. Netting CVs: Individual Species Abundance – Whoa, Nellie ! Also Super High!
  • 42. Bowl CVs: Top 5 Species – Better, Much Lower
  • 43. Netting CVs: Top 5 Species – Similar, Better, Much Lower
  • 44. Bowl CVs: Bee Abundance – Oh My, Quite Nice!
  • 45. Netting CVs: Bee Abundance – Sweet!
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  • 50. Accumulation curves for pan traps Examples of
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  • 53. Size of pan traps df=6,147, F-value=0.20, p-value=0.977 12 oz 6 oz 1oz 2 oz 3.25 oz 4 oz 0.7 oz No significant difference
  • 54. Is pan trap color really important? Compare how many individuals are caught in different colored bowls for key species
  • 55. Color of Pan Trap - Numerous trials on East Coast of U.S. Blue UV Yellow UV Pale Blue UV Pale Blue White White UV Blue Yellow
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  • 61. Are bees more attracted to fluorescent or non-fluorescent colored pan traps? Data from Sam Droege Note, that bowls were placed adjacent to one another Genus   non-uv uv Agapostemon 0 1 Andrena 0 1 Apis 0 1 Augochlora 1 1 Augochorella 1 3 Bombus 0 3 Calliopsis 2 6 Ceratina 4 11 Anthididum 0 3 Halictus 2 11 Heriades 0 1 Hylaeus 2 2 Lasioglossum 13 77 Melissodes 1 4 Osmia 1 0 Perdita 1 1 Sphecodes 0 2 Total 28 128
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  • 63. Does Adding Scents or Sweets in the Water in the Bowl Boost Catch? Nope – Data from 10 trials with 5 replicates of each category – Maryland data
  • 64. Does Adding Salt Increase the Number of Bees Captured? Not in Maryland it doesn’t - Same set up as last time, but note that salt in the New World tropics will attract bees but this has not been tried in traps Treatments are different concentrations of salt in bowl traps
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  • 67. When should we sample? Significant effect of time of year From Russell et al. powerline study, note that colors denote significant treatments yet samples fell into date groups in CCA ordination space
  • 68. Change in Captures in May 2-Day Time Intervals Sampling period Data from previously mentioned USDA study
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  • 70. Impact of Category and Pooling on the CV Note that pooling across sites had relatively little impact on CV
  • 71. Impact of Category and Pooling on the CV Note that pooling across replicates and sites had little impact on CV
  • 72. Impact of Category and Combining Netting and Bowling on the CV Note that pooling netting and bowl trapping data has a slight but positive impact on CV
  • 73. Impact of Category and Pooling across Sites Note that pooling has a consistent slight positive impact on CV
  • 74. Impact of Measuring Number of Occupied Cells vs Stems on CV Note that using the number of occupied stems rather than the total number of occupied cells has a slight but consistent positive impact on CV
  • 75. Impact of Pooling across sites on CV Very Interesting! In this case pooling across sites has a large positive impact on CV
  • 76. Impact of Pooling From Individual Month to All Year Pooling across all the months of data Roubic’s site has a relatively large positive impact on CV
  • 79. Impact of Category and Pooling across Sites on CV Note the slight but relatively consistent positive impact on CV by pooling sites
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  • 81. There are quite a few other taxa that end up in bowls that could be sampled. Taiwan Bowl Captures
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  • 87. Created populations with known declines
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  • 89. HOW MANY SAMPLES DO WE NEED TO DETECT TRENDS IN POLLINATOR POPULATIONS?
  • 90. No surprise here, its easier to detect a large decline than a small one, note that this is just a 2-year study
  • 91. EFFECT SIZE Small decline Big decline
  • 92. Low CV – 2 years
  • 93. Low CV – 5 years
  • 94. Med CV - 2
  • 95. Med CV - 5
  • 96. High CV - 2 No surprise here, if you have high variability in your CVs you need tons of samples to detect a change
  • 98. Effect of Study Length on Power for Low CV No surprise here….its easy to detect a trend over a longer period of time than a shorter one
  • 99. Power results Using the sign test, we have good power to detect even a 2% decline within 5 years across a range of CVs with only 100-300 sample sites. We have slightly more power if we use a paired t-test.
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  • 106. Distribution of Various Melitoma Species from www.discoverlife.org Photo from University of Georgia
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