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indmin.com/FluorsparAnalysis

Fluorspar in 2013
Changing global trade routes and price trends
Simon Moores, Manager, Industrial Minerals Data,
Fluorspar 2013, London

Simon Moores, Manager, Industrial Minerals Data – smoores@indmin.com
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Overview – Fluorspar in 2013 
Existing trade routes and price trends
The fluorspar highways of the future 
Other defining factors of 2013
1. Overview – Fluorspar in 2013
The world in 2013
The storm is over but the gloom fails to clear…

Acidspar
• Demand continues to deteriorate across the 
board
• As bad if not worse than 2009 
• Prices have collapsed from 2011 highs 
• Prices down 25% on average 
Metspar
• Global demand sluggish
• Demand from China’s steel industry props 
up industry & prices 
• Prices more robust than acidspar

US government shutdown

Storm in Europe

Smog in China
2. Existing trade routes and price trends
• Trade routes that tells the fluorspar story of 2013
• Price trends from data collected by the new Industrial Minerals Data | Fluorspar
2. Existing trade routes and price trends

Trade route 1: China to the rest of the world
Transport method: Sea freight 
Delivery terms: FOB
Product traded: Acidspar, Metspar
Situation: A Chinese realignment 
• Chinese exports have fallen
• China’s export prices = collapsed for both acidspar and metspar
• …but metspar imports have increased (Mongolia) 

2012: 25% 

H1 2013: 18% 
2. Existing trade routes and price trends
Trade route 1: China to the rest of the world

Price trend: Metspar, 85% CaF2, FOB China 

35%
January 2013: $355‐375/tonne
October 2013: $230‐250/tonne

Source: IM Data | Fluorspar 
www.indmin.com/FluorsparPrices
2. Existing trade routes and price trends
Trade route 1: China to the rest of the world

Price trend: Acidspar, 97% CaF2, Wet Filtercake, FOB China 

25%
January 2013: $400‐415/tonne
October 2013: $290‐320/tonne

Source: IM Data | Fluorspar 
www.indmin.com/FluorsparPrices
2. Existing trade routes and price trends

Trade route 2: Mongolia to Russia / China
Transport method: Rail 
Delivery terms: DAP
Product traded: Metspar, Acidspar

Situation: Supplier to China and 
•
•
•
•

H1 stronger performance than most countries
Propped up by metspar demand from Chinese steel = up 9% y‐o‐y (June 2013)
H2 slowdown, some fluorspar plants closed
2013 slower than 2012 (420,000 tpa)

• International prices now the lowest in the market 
• Mining costs on average lower than China 
• China happy to increase reliance on Mongolia to preserve its domestic resources
The importance of foreign direct investment in Mongolia

Source: Foreign investment and foreign Trade Agency of Mongolia, KPMG
2. Existing trade routes and price trends
Trade route 2: Mongolia to Russia / China

Price trend: Acidspar, 95‐97% CaF2, Dry Filtercake, DAP Mongolia to Russia

17%
January 2013: $350‐395/tonne
October 2013: $290‐330/tonne

Source: IM Data | Fluorspar 
www.indmin.com/FluorsparPrices
2. Existing trade routes and price trends
Trade route 2: Mongolia to Russia / China

Price trend: Metspar, 75% CaF2, DAP, Mongolia to Russia

15%
January 2013: $200/tonne
October 2013: $160‐180/tonne

Source: IM Data | Fluorspar 
www.indmin.com/FluorsparPrices
2. Existing trade routes and price trends
China’s steel production: record highs in 2013
2. Existing trade routes and price trends

Trade route 3: Product shipped into Europe
Transport method: Sea freight 
Delivery terms: CIF
Product traded: Acidspar, Metspar
Situation: Demand evaporation 
•
•
•
•
•

Acidspar demand from HF very low
Metspar demand very low, steel production has stalled 
Steel production declined 9% in 2012 and 3% in 2013 (est)
China up 9% in 2013 y‐o‐y
Is 2013 the bottom of the market?
2. Existing trade routes and price trends
Trade route 3: Product shipped into Europe

Price trend: Acidspar, 97% CaF2, Wet Filtercake, CIF, Rotterdam, Holland

18%
January 2013: $500‐530/tonne
October 2013: $420/tonne

Source: IM Data | Fluorspar 
www.indmin.com/FluorsparPrices
3. The fluorspar highways of the future 

Future trade route 1: Vietnam to the US
Expected transport method: Sea freight 
Expected delivery terms: FOB
Product traded: Acidspar
Situation: A new significant producer in 2014 
•
•
•
•

200,000 tpa of new acidspar supply
Enters international market in 2013
Primarily to the USA
India? China?
3. The fluorspar highways of the future 

Future trade route 2: Mongolia to China expansion 
Expected transport method: Rail 
Expected delivery terms: DAP
Product traded: Metspar
Situation: Mongolia rising 
• China’s reliance on Mongolia as a low‐cost metspar source will increase
• Developing new resources will be key
• Transport infrastructure 
investment critical – roads, 
rail lines
• Low cost production will 
cement long term position
Right: Rio Tinto starts to ship 
copper concentrated from Gobi 
Desert, Mongolia, June 2013
3. The fluorspar highways of the future 

Future trade route 3: Internal trade routes
Expected transport method: Rail, Truck, Barge
Expected delivery terms: DAP
Product traded: Acidspar, Metspar
Situation: Raw material self‐sufficiency  
• Developing captive supplies for countries / consumers
• UK & Germany have opened/developing new mines
• UK – re‐opened in Derbyshire
• Germany – 2 new acidspar operations in 2014
• 100% reliance on China can no longer be guaranteed
• Security in diversity of supply = major issue
4. Other defining factors of 2013
• Raw material self sufficiency 
• Germany 
• Increase Acidspar output by 55%
• New 30,000 tpa Acidspar 
operation by 2014 
• UK 
• Re‐opening of British Fluorspar 
mining operation (formerly 
Glebe Mines/Ineos)
• Global trade slows, imports increase into 
China
• A switch?
• Europe suffering, US only slightly 
better, China opportunity
• China metspar imports up 25% y‐o‐y 
in 2012, H1 2013 up again up 18%
4. Other defining factors of 2013

• Metspar neglected?
• Supply replacement needed in China 
• Most new projects focus on value‐
added Acidspar
• Gap in the market for metspar into 
China – Mongolia 

• Acidspar and metspar price convergence  
• Price declines across‐the‐board 
outlined
• Acidspar’s more rapid decline than 
metspar, especially in H1 2013
• Gap closes between acidspar and 
metspar price ($80‐100/tonne)
Shruti Salwan, Analyst
London 
ssalwan@indmin.com
@ssalwan_indmin

Albert Li, Analyst
Shanghai
ali@indmin.com

Andy Miller, Junior Analyst
London 
amiller@indmin.com
@amiller_indmin
Recovery delayed until 2014…

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Fluorspar Trade and Prices in 2013 - Simon Moores