Altos Research Fall 2010 Webcast Slides - When Does the Housing Recovery Start.pdf

Presented by:

Scott Sambucci
Vice President, Market Analytics

Copyright Altos Research | www.altosresearch.com | 12/09/2010

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 What to expect in 2011 and why
 Implications of Dodd-Frank, GSEs, Mortgages
& Taxes, QE2, Robo-signing
 Impacts on RMBS & Whole Loans
 Home Prices vs. Home Values


 180+ Metropolitan Statistical Areas (and growing every month)
covering 20,000+ zip codes
 2 million active listings updated every week
 Market Analytics & Leading Indicators available by zip code, city,
county, MSA, state and nationally
 All data & market analytics for each geography (zip, city, metro)
independently calculated


 0-12 month Forecasting  This list in a partial list of market
 Median Price stats published weekly, with over
 Price of New Listings
 Price of Listings Absorbed
400 coincidental & leading
 Market Action Index indicators available
 List-to-Sale Ratios
 Altos Research also provides
 6-18 month forecasting market analytics based on
 Percent Price Decreased/Increase
 Magnitude Price Decreased/Increase
Property Characteristics:
 Inventory  Square Footage
 Percent Relisted  # Beds/Baths
 Days-on-market (mean and median)  Lot Size & Age
 Tic/Trend/Peakiness/Troughiness  Price per Bedroom/Bathroom
 12-24 month forecasting  Price per Square Foot (mean &
 Year-over-Year Price
median)
 Year-over-Year Inventory
 Year-over-Year Percent Price Decreased
 Year-over-Year Days-on-Market

 Whole Loan Asset Portfolios
 RMBS Portfolios
 REO Disposition
 Mortgage Origination & Servicing
 Valuation & Appraisal
 Equity Researchers
 Risk Management
 Homebuilders & Developers
 Insurance

Correlation with 4-month lead = 0.705
% change Ask Price % change CSXR
3.00%

2.00%

1.00%

0.00%

-1.00%

-2.00%

-3.00%

-4.00%


We’ll get some type of
seasonal bounce – we
always do. The size and
scope will likely be small as
compared to 2009, but it will
be a breather


• Tax credit stimulated demand temporarily  Fewer
sellers required price reductions to sell.
• Sellers are feeling distressed again  Price Reductions
on the rise and nearly back to crash levels.


 Robo-signing
 QE2
 Dodd-Frank
 Mortgage Rates
 Mortgage Interest
Rate deduction


 Banks were selling into market strength seen
from Homebuyer Tax Credit
 Market picked up, and banks increased the
rate of foreclosures to get assets through the
pipeline


 Difficult to see effects
 Baked into prices?
 Home Price Inflation - A Counterfactual
argument

(Note: See Altos Research White Paper:
“QE2 & the Housing Market”)


 In 2004 alone, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac purchased
$175,000,000,000 in subprime mortgage securities, which
accounted for 44 percent of the market that year, and from 2005
through 2007, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac purchased
approximately $1,000,000,000,000 in subprime and Alt-A loans,
while Fannie Mae’s acquisitions of mortgages with less than 10
percent down payments almost tripled.
 The conservatorship for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has
potentially exposed taxpayers to upwards of $5,300,000,000,000
worth of risk.
 The hybrid public-private status of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
is untenable and must be resolved to assure that consumers are
offered and receive residential mortgage loans on terms that
reasonably reflect their ability to repay the loans and that are
understandable and not unfair, deceptive, or abusive.


 Would lead to an increasing 3.5% down
payment mortgages as FHA market share
rises
 Any significant downward shift in prices will
lead to negative equity situations.
 Would force government to further bolster
the market until we reach the Keynesian
endpoint in 201?, 202?, 203?
 No political will to seek ST pain of alternative

 2009-10:Definitely helped the market, but
was temporarily. Diminishing effect in ‘10 vs.
‘09.
 May make sense to re-introduce in 2012 or ‘13
 Mortgage interest deduction: appears here to
stay. (See NAR/MBAA uproar, Deficit
reduction committee)
 Unequivacally shows that tax credits do
impact markets

360,000
340,000
320,000 A
300,000
280,000 B C (Projected)
260,000
240,000
220,000
200,000

 (A) 2008 Trough to Peak = 20% increase
 (B) 2010 Trough to Peak = 30% increase
 (C) Assuming a 25% rise in Spring 2011, that will bring inventory back to
crash levels
 Higher inventory Downward price pressure

 Not just the number of homes, but the quality of homes
 Bifurcated Market - Don’t confuse price with value. Prices
will fall not only because of demand weakness but the
available stock
 This might also case a quick jump in perceived home
values because of cash infused to asset


• Investors and speculators provide liquidity to the market.
• Motor oil between Bank REOs and “regular” buyers (i.e. first-time
home buyers)
• First-time homebuyers with 3.5% down typically don’t have cash
sitting around to fix the roof and re-install stripped copper pipes
• Investors worked us out of the S&L crisis and can pull us out now


 Even 2.0-2.5% GDP growth is growth
 More people should have jobs in Dec ‘11 than
Dec ‘10
 Even the hint of higher mortgage rates may
scare a few buyers into the market. (See
Congressional Tax Debate)
 Mortgage rate increases still put them at
historical lows
 The good news is that we know more bad
news is here

 Nationally, prices will be lower by 5-10%
 Some seasonal bounce in Q1, Q2. Bounce will
likely be more like 2008, 2010
 2011 will mean lower prices because of:
 Rising Inventory
 Quality of Inventory
 Less Demand (homeownership rates, consumer
exhaustion, consumer trepidation)
 The Contrarian Argument - There’s nothing but
bad news out there, so that must mean we’re
hitting the trough


• All markets are not equal
• Do your research: “one-size-fits-all” model will lead your astray
• Wide Distribution of 4- and 12-week price changes over 20,000
zip codes in the Altos Research Market Analytics Platform


BPO based on June comps $184,000

Altos real-time market data

Phoenix 85057 Home Prices Altos Forecast


 Not yet. But it won’t be down forever.
 2011: Expect 5-10% downside
 2012-2014ish
 Stabilize and slowly rise as unemployment lags
(see Bernanke, “60 minutes” interview)
 Mix of elevated unemployment, high inventory,
and low quality will keep prices low even as
transactions pick up over time
 Good for getting in as long as you don’t need to
get out

Submit list of loans,
property addresses or
underlying asset zip
codes to Altos
Research

Altos Research
Housing Market
Data Platform
yields real-time
market analytics
and leading
indicators for
each zip code
submitted.

All data files available for download as .CSV file for easy
integration into any spreadsheet model or database
application.


MORE GOOD READS: OUR MARKET ANALYTICS TEAM:

 Two (2) White papers Scott Sambucci, Vice President
now available: scott@altosresearch.com
(415) 931 7942
 “Leading Indicators of
Home Prices” Andrew Goei, Manager
 “QE2 & the Housing andrew@altosresearch.com
Market” (650) 603-0805

Jeff Eckenhoff, Manager
 Today’s Presentation jeff@altosresearch.com
(650) 603-0905
Slides

Altos Research Fall 2010 Webcast Slides - When Does the Housing Recovery Start.pdf

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Altos Research Fall 2010 Webcast Slides - When Does the Housing Recovery Start.pdf