Savills Vietnam - Q3 2009 - Hanoi & HCMC Market Presentation

Ha Noi & HCMC Real Estate Market Q3 2009

Presented by Savills Vietnam Co., Ltd.
October 2009

Presentation structure

•I. Ha Noi real estate market Q3 2009
•II. HCMC real estate market Q3 2009
•III. Viet Nam economic overview

I. Ha Noi Real Estate Market Overview Q3 2009

Market sectors: •1 - Office for lease market
•2 - Retail market
•3 - Hotel market
•4 - Apartment for sale market
•5 - Serviced apartment market

Ha Noi market

(1/5) Office for lease: Total supply
CEO Tower
• Total supply:
– 74 office for lease buildings comprising 493,000 sq m
– +10% q-o-q
• 12 Grade A, 30 Grade B and 32 Grade C
buildings
• 3 new Grade B office buildings (46,000 sq m):
– CEO Tower, Pham Hung Street, 13,000 sq m
– Handiresco, Kim Ma Street, 21,000 sq m
– Plaschem, Nguyen Van Cu Street, 12,000 sq m

Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009

(1/5) Office for lease: Supply by district
• Largest supply in Hoan Kiem District • Grade A: 21%, mainly in Hoan Kiem District,
(30%), smallest supply: Tay Ho unchanged q-o-q. Grade B: 54%, largest
District (1%) supply, +20% q-o-q. Grade C: 24%
No. of Net office space for lease (RHS)
buildings No of bldgs (LHS) Sq m Grade A Grade B Grade C
sq m

30 160,000 300,000

140,000
25 250,000
120,000

20 200,000
100,000

15 80,000 150,000 ]
60,000
10 100,000
40,000

5 50,000
20,000

0 0 -
Hoan Kiem Dong Da Ba Dinh Cau Giay Hai Ba Tu Liem Long Bien Tay Ho Q12008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q12009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
Trung


(1/5) Office for lease
Market performance by grade

Occupancy rate Average rent
100% 45

US$/sq m/month
• Overall performance is
90% 40
worsen than Q2 Rent gap
80% (Grade A & B):
35
• The average rent rate: 70%
US$15.6

US$28/sq m/month 30
60%
Rent gap 25
• Grade A rent/ Grade C 50% (Grade B & C):
US$9.6
rent ~ 2.5 times 20
40%
• The average occupancy 15
30%
rate: 85% 20% 10

10% 5

0% 0
Grade A Grade B Grade C


Occupancy & rent, Grade A & B

Grade A Grade B
Occupancy rate = + 1% q-o-q Occupancy rate = - 9% q-o-q
Average rent rate = - 4.5% q-o-q Average rent rate = - 2% q-o-q


100% 60

US$/sq m/month
100% 40

US$/sq m/month
90% 90%
50 35
80% 80%
30
70% 40 70%
60% 60% 25
50% 30 50% 20
40% 40%
20 15
30% 30%
20% 10
10 20%
10% 10% 5
0% - 0% -
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009


(1/5) Office for lease: Leasing enquire index
Leasing enquiries seems to be trending upward since July 2009.

%
150
130

110
90

70 ?
re nd
r dT
50 wa
Up

30
10
-10
November

December
March

June

March

June
September

October

September
January

February

May

July

January

February

May

July
April

April
August

August
2008 2009


Future supply forecast, Q4 2009 - 2012

sq m Current supply New supply

•By Q4 2009: more 145,000 2,000,000

sq m, 10 projects
•2010 & 2011: about 350,000 1,600,000

sq m more each year
•By 2012: more 1.1 million sq 1,200,000
m, mainly in suburbs
800,000

400,000

0
Q4 2009 2010 2011 2012


Future supply by district, Q4 2009 - 2012

• Main supply in secondary and suburban districts.
• Largest supply in Tu Liem & Cau Giay District.

Current supply as of Q3 2009 New supply of office space
sq m
350,000
CBD
9%
300,000

250,000
Suburban
40%
200,000

Secondary 150,000
51%
100,000

50,000

0
Ba Dinh Hoan Hai Ba Dong Hoang Cau Thanh Tay Ho Tu Liem Long
Kiem Trung Da Mai Giay Xuan Bien


(2/5) Retail market

• Total supply: 360,000 sq m, + 4% q-o-q
• 10 shopping centres, 2 department
stores, 2 hypermarkets, 78 supermarkets
& electronics, 2 wholesale centres and 12
retail podiums
• 1 new shopping centre - Vincom
Galleries, Ba Trieu Street, 15,000 sq m

Ha Noi market

(2/5) Retail market: Supply by location and type
Supply by location Supply by type
• CBD: 12%, unchanged q-o-q • Retail podium: mainly in CBD
• Secondary area: largest • Shopping centre & supermarket: mainly in
supply, 56%, +6% q-o-q secondary area
• Suburban area: 32%, • Hypermarket & wholesale market: mainly in
unchanged q-o-q suburban area.

Secondary 56% Retail Podiums
5% Hypermarket
CBD 24%
12% Supermarkets
31%

Shopping center
16%
Suburban Wholesales Department store
32% Centres 8%
16%


(2/5) Retail market
Market performance – occupancy rate

Shopping centre/ Department Store/ Hypermarket
Occupancy
•Overall occupancy: 90%- Retail P o dium
100%
95%, decrease 3-5% q-o-q
90%
•CBD: nearly 100%
80%
occupancy across all retail
types 70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%
N/A data for retail podium
0%
CBD Secondary Suburban


(2/5) Retail market
Market performance – Rent rate

Rent range is varied by location and types of retails.
Widest range is for retail podium in CBD.
US$/sq m/month US$/sq m/month
130 160
120 120 Min Max 150 150 Min Max
110 140
100 130
120
90 120
80 110
70 100
70
60 90
57 50 80
50
70
40
60
30 50
20 40
20
10 38
7 30
0
30
20
CBD Secondary Suburban CBD Secondary

Shopping centre/ Department store Retail Podium
/ Hypermarket

(2/5) Retail market
Future supply Q4 2009 - 2012

sq m Existing stock Future st ock
•Q4 2009: 11,400 sq m 1,200,000

•2010: more than 1,000,000
82,000 sq m
800,000
•2011: 425,000 sq m,
largest future supply 600,000

•2012: 204,000 sq m
400,000

200,000

0
Q4 2009 2010 2011 2012


(3/5) Hotel: Total supply

• Total supply: 5,678 rooms
– Ten 5-star hotels, 2,983 rooms
– Six 4-star hotels, 1,083 rooms
– Twenty-two 3-star hotels, 1,612
rooms
• One new 4-star hotel, Mercure
Ha Noi La Gare, Ly Thuong
Kiet Street, with 102 rooms


(3/5) Hotel: Supply by district and grade
Supply by grade Supply by location
Largest segment: 5-star (53%) Largest provider: Hoan Kiem District (26%)
Smallest segment: 4-star (19%) Smallest provider: Long Bien District (1%)

Long Bien
1%

Dong Da
15% Hoan
3-star Kiem
28% 26%

5-star
53% Ba Dinh
25%
Tay Ho
4-star 22%
19% Hai Ba
Trung
11%


(3/5) Hotel
Market performance – RevPAR indicator

RevPAR (US$) 5-star 4-star 3-star

• RevPAV across all sectors: 110

-9% q-o-q 100
90
• RevPAV for 5-star hotels:
80
-10% q-o-q, largest decline
70
• RevPAV for 4-star hotels: 60
almost unchanged q-o-q 50
• RevPAV for 3-star hotels: 40
-9% q-o-q 30
20
10
0
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
n/ a

Revenue per available room (RevPAR) = Average Daily Room Rate x Occupancy Rate

(3/5) Hotel
Market performance of 4 & 5-star segment

5-star segment 4-star segment
ARR: -10% q-o-q ARR: -5% q-o-q
Occupancy: unchanged q-o-q Occupancy: +2% q-o-q

Average occupancy ARR Average occupancy ARR
Occupancy (%) US$ per night Occupancy (%) US$ per night
70 180 80 120
60 70
150 100
50 60
120 80
50
40
90 40 60
30
60 30
20
40
20
10 30 20
10
0 0 0 0
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q12009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q12009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009

Average room rate (ARR) = the rooms revenue / the total number of guest rooms occupied.

(3/5) Hotel: International visitors & Future supply 2012

International visitors Future supply by 2012
• Number of international visitor to Viet Nam: • Mainly in Tu Liem & Cau Giay districts
-17% y-o-y in the next 2 years.
• Number of international visitor to Ha Noi: - • Mainly comes from 4 & 5-star hotel
2% y-o-y projects.
No. of foreign
Vietnam Hanoi # of rooms Existing stock Newsupply
visitors (million)
5 1
2,000

1
0,000
4

8,000
3

6,000
2
4,000
1
2,000

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 First 9 0
months 201
0 201
1 Future
of 2009


(4/5) Apartment for sale: Total supply
Mipec Tower Keangnam Hanoi Landmark Tower

• Primary supply: 1,152
units from 10 active
projects
• Secondary supply:
29,150 units

Sky City Towers


(4/5) Apartment for sale:
Primary market by district and grade
•Largest supply: Tu Liem District, •Grade A ( 83.7%), Grade B (0.9%), and
smallest supply: Hoan Kiem District Grade C(15.5%)
•Un-balance among product types
Units
Units
600
1,000
Primary supply
500
800
400
600
300

400
200

100 200

0 0
Tu Liem Dong Da Hai Ba Trung Ba Dinh Hoan Kiem Grade A Grade B Grade C


Primary market performance

• Overall average primary Primary supply

asking price: +5% q-o-q No. of sold units in Q3 2009
No. of units Average primary asking price excl. VAT US$/ m2
• Sold units/ Primary 1,000 3,000
supply 900
800 2,500
Grade A = 27%
700
2,000
Grade B = 60% 600

Grade C = 96% 500 1,500
400
1,000
300
200
500
100
0 -


Secondary market by district
Secondary supply mainly in Cau Giay, Tu Liem & Hoang Mai districts.

Units
8,000
7,000 Secondary supply
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Cau Tu Liem Hoang Dong Da Long Ba Dinh Hai Ba Tay Ho Thanh Hoan
Giay Mai Bien Trung Xuan Kiem


Secondary market performance – asking price
• Most increase are Cau Giay & Hoang Mai, 20% & 19.4% q-o-q respectively
• Lower increases in Hoan Kiem & Ba Dinh, 2.7% & 3.4% q-o-q respectively

Tu Liem Cau Giay Thanh Xuan Hoan Kiem Ba Dinh Tay Ho
US$/ sq m Hoang Mai Long Bien US$/ sq m Dong Da Hai Ba Trung
1,800 4,500

1,500 4,000

3,500
1,200

3,000
900
2,500
600
2,000

300
1,500

- 1,000
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009


(4/5) Apartment for sale: High demand

• The average living space: 7 - 7.5
sq m/ person (year 2008, MOT)
• High income and saving
• High speed urbanization
• More attractive mortgage plans,
up to 70% value and repayment
time up to 20 years.


Supply up to end 2009

Notable projects expected to launch up to end 2009

No. Apartment project name District No. of Units

1 Project at 671 Hoang Hoa Tham (Phase II) Ba Dinh 40

2 Trung Yen 2 Cau Giay 240

3 Hanoi Indochina Plaza Cau Giay 390

4 Richland Southern Tower Cau Giay 176

5 Lilama Plaza Hoang Mai 150

6 Canal Park - Thach Ban New City (Phase I) Long Bien 148

7 CT1- Co Nhue New Urban Area Tu Liem 72

8 Megastar Dominium Tu Liem 336

9 Dolphin Plaza Tu Liem 400

Total 1,952


Future supply by year up to 2012

By 2012: 10,290 units expected, mainly in Tu Liem (34%) & Cau Giay (30%)
Hoan Kiem
Thanh Tri
Gia Lam
Tay Ho
No record for future supply by 2012 in these districts
Dong Anh
Hai Ba Trung
Long Bien
Thanh Xuan
Ba Dinh
Hoang Mai
Dong Da
Cau Giay
Tu Liem

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000
Units


•Vinh Tuy Bridge put into operation
•Future infrastructure projects

Nhat Tan Bridge

Hoa Binh Park

Le Van Luong extended road


(5/5) Serviced Apartment – Total supply
Units
• 41 projects, about 220,000
sq m, 2197 units 2,400

2,200
– 11 Grade A, 1,181 units
2,000
– 17 Grade B, 819 units
1,800
– 13 Grade C, 197 units
1,600
• 100 units from Fraser
1,400
Suites, Xuan Dieu Street,
1,200
entered the market in Q3
2009 1,000

800

600

400

200
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009


(5/5) Serviced Apartment: Supply by district
Supply by unit size Supply by district
• Highest market share are units <100 sq m • Main stock in Tay Ho, Ba Dinh & Hoan Kiem
• Smallest market share are units >200 sq m • Fewer stock in Hoang Mai & Dong Da
• The smaller size, the higher market share

4%
Ba Dinh
10%
Cau Giay
28%
>200 sq m
38% Dong Da
150 sq m - 200 sq m
22% Hoang Mai
100 sq m - 150 sq m Hai Ba Trung
64% 8%
1%
<100 sq m Hoan Kiem
16% 3%
6% Tay Ho


(5/5) Serviced Apartment
Market performance by occupancy & rent

Occupancy (%) Average Rent
Percent US$/ sq m/ month
100 30.0
29.0
80 28.0
27.0
60 26.0
25.0
40 24.0
23.0
20 22.0
21.0
0 20.0
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009


(5/5) Serviced Apartment
Market performance by grade
Occupancy decreases 2% q-o-q across Grade A rent: decreased 11% q-o-q, to
all three grades 30.3US$/ sq m/ month.
Occupancy rates are stable from Q3 Grade B & Grade C rent: almost remain
2008 to Q3 2009 (range from 86% to q-o-q
89%)
Grade A Grade B Grade C Grade A Grade B Grade C
% U sq m m
S$/ / onth
100 40

90
30

80

20
70

10
60

50 0
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009


(5/5) Serviced Apartment: Future supply
List of futrue projects under construction
No. Name of Project District No. of Units Est. Completion year

1 Hanoi Fraser Suites Tay Ho 10 Q4 2009

2 Crown Plaza Complex (X7 Site) Tu Liem 84 Q4 2010

3 The Landmark (Hanoi City Complex) Ba Dinh 352 Q3 2011

4 Keangnam Hanoi Landmark Tower Tu Liem 506 Q3 2011

5 Licogi 13 Thanh Xuan 60 Q4 2011

6 HD Complex Cau Giay 60 2012

7 HD Plaza Thanh Xuan Cau Giay 150 2012

8 Habico Tower Tu Liem n/a n/a

Total 1,222


(5/5) Serviced Apartment: Future supply

Units Stock New supply

• Main future supply: in 4,000
west & north west of
3,500
Ha Noi
3,000
• 2011: huge stock
expected to enter 2,500
market. 2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0
2009 2010 2011 2012 Future


(5/5) Serviced Apartment rent v.s. Office rent

US$/ sq m/ month Office Serviced Apt.
45
40
35
30
25
20
Gap is narrowing
15
10
5
0
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009


(5/5) Serviced Apartment v.s. Hotel occupancy

% Hotel Serviced Apt.

100

80

60

40

20

0
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009


(5/5) Serviced Apartment v.s. Hotel rent

Rent of both sectors have been decreasing since Q4 2008
Hotel (LHS) Serviced Apt. (RHS)

160.0 29.0
28.5
140.0
28.0
120.0 27.5

US$/ sq m/ month
100.0 27.0
US$/ night

26.5
80.0
26.0
60.0 25.5
40.0 25.0
24.5
20.0
24.0
0.0 23.5
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009


II. HCMC Real Estate Market Overview Q3 2009

Market sectors: •1 - Office for lease market
•2 - Retail market
•3 - Hotel market
•4 - Apartment for sale market
•5 - Serviced apartment market

Ha Noi market

(1/5) Office for lease: Total supply

• Total supply: 752,000 sq m, + 5%
q-o-q.
- Grade A: 6 buildings, 100,000 sq m
- Grade B: 31 buildings, 375,000 sq m
• New supply: Kumho Asiana Plaza,
39 Le Duan Boulevard - District 1,
25,700 sq m

HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009

(1/5) Office for lease: Supply by district

Total net area Market share
sq m %
• Largest supply: 500,000 100%
District 1, 440,000
sq m, 60% market
400,000 80%
share
• Smallest supply: 300,000 60%
District 5, 1,000 sq m,
0.1% market share
200,000 40%
• District 7, new
development area, 100,000 20%
53,000 sq m, 7%
market share
0 0%
Dist. 1 Tan Binh Dist. 3 Dist. 7 Phu Dist. 10 Dist. 4 Binh Dist. 5
Nhuan Thanh


(1/5) Office for lease: Supply by grade
Grade A increased 35% in supply q-o-q
Grade A Grade B
thousand sq m
400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009


(1/5) Office for lease:
Market performance Grade A and Grade B
Grade A Grade B
• The average rent: US$ 63.2/ sq m/mth, -3% •The average rent: US$30/ sq m/mth,
q-o-q. remains unchanged.
• The average occupancy: 81%, -15% q-o-q. • The average occupancy: 86%, +6% q-o-q.

Occupancy (LHS) Average Rent (RHS) Occupancy (LHS) Average Rent (RHS)

% US$/sq m/mth % US$/sq m/mth
100% 100 100% 100
90% 90 90% 90
80% 80 80% 80
70% 70 70% 70
60% 60 60% 60
50% 50 50% 50
40% 40 40% 40
30% 30 30% 30
20% 20 20% 20
10% 10 10% 10
0% 0 0% 0
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009


Office rent, Hotel rate and Serviced Apartment rent

5-star Hotels (RHS) 4-star Hotels (RHS)
Grade A Office for lease (LHS) Grade B Office for lease (LHS)
Grade A Serviced Apartment (LHS) Grade B Serviced Apartment (LHS)
$US/sq m/month $US/room/night $US/sq m/month $US/room/night
100 200 100 200

80 160 80 160

60 120 60 120

40 80 40 80

20 40 20 40

0 0 0 0
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009


(1/5) Office for lease: Leasing enquire index
Enquiries seems to be trending downward since July 2009.

Office leasing enquiry

800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Nov-08
Jun-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jun-09

Jul-09
May-08

Aug-08

Sep-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-09

Mar-09

Apr-09

May-09

Aug-09

Sep-09

(1/5) Office for lease: Successful transaction
Demand by area Demand by purpose

Over 500 sq m 12%
From Grade B to B 40%

401 - 500 sq m 2% From Grade C to B 24%

301 - 400 sq m 7% From Grade C to C 14%

201 - 300 sq m 12% New entrants to B 9%

100 - 200 sq m 30% From Grade A to B 9%

Below 100 sq m 35% From Grade A to C 4%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%


(1/5) Office for lease: Future supply by year

Future supply
sq m
• By 2012: over one 800,000
million sq m new office
supply.
• Office market could 600,000

double its supply in the
next 3 years.
400,000

200,000

0
Actual 2009 Actual 2010 Actual 2011 Potential 2012


Future supply by district up to 2012

• Largest future supply: District 1,
60% market share District 1
District 7
• New supply developing in
Tan Binh
surburban areas like 7, Tan
District 4
Binh and Nha Be districts.
Binh Thanh
Nha Be

District Percentage District 3
District 1 59% District 9
District 7 20%
Tan Binh 5% District 5
District 4 3% District 10
Binh Thanh 3%
Nha Be 3% Tan Phu
District 3 2%
District 9 2%
District 5 1%
District 10 1%
Tan Phu 1%


(2/5) Retail market: Total Supply
• Total supply: 452,400 sq m
– 5 department stores
– 15 shopping centres
– 6 retail podium
– 59 super markets
– 3 wholesale markets
• No new supply in Q3 2009


(2/5) Retail market: Supply by location and type
Supply by location Supply by type

Supermarkets
Suburban Shopping Centres
Secondary
CBD Department Stores
1% Wholesale Markets
11%
19% 15%
Retail Podiums

46%

31%
42%

35%


(2/5) Retail market
Market performance of shopping centre

Approx. Area Low er rent Upper rent
sq m US$/sq m/month
• Average rent: US$44 30,000 150
to US$80 per sqm.
25,000
120
• Average occupancy:
94% 20,000
90

15,000

60
10,000

30
5,000

0 0

Eden Mall
Thuan Kieu Plaza

Royal Centre

Citi Plaza

Tax Plaza

Lucky Plaza
Saigon Paragon

Saigon Centre

Master Zone
Lotte Mart

Vinatex Plaza

Alta Plaza

Saigon Superbowl

Saigon Square

(2/5) Retail market
Market performance of Department stores

• Average rent: US$38 to Approx. Area Low er rent Upper rent
US$140 per sq m. sq m US$/sq m/month
25,000 250
• Highest rent: US$220
(Diamond Plaza)
20,000 200
(comparable to mall
rents in Thailand)
15,000 150

10,000 100

5,000 50

0 0
Parkson Hung Parkson Parkson CT Diamond Plaza Zen Plaza
Vuong Saigontourist Plaza


(2/5) Retail market
Market performance of retail podium
Approx. Area Upper rent Low er rent
• Average rent: US$74 to sq m US$/sq m/month
US$105 per sq m 2,500 150

• Average occupancy:
99%. 2,000 120

1,500 90

1,000 60

500 30

0 0
The Manor Opera View New World Rex Hotel Sheraton Caravelle
Hotel Saigon Hotel


(2/5) Retail market

sq m
• Shortage retail space 500,000
anticipated in HCMC
until 2010.
400,000
• Demand expected to
grow. Undersupply
300,000
expected.

200,000

100,000

0
2010E 2011E 2012 E


(3/5) Hotel: Total supply

• (13) 5-star hotels: 4,288
rooms,
• (8) 4-star hotels: 1,280
rooms
• New supply: 5-star
Intercontinental Asiana
Saigon, Corner Hai Ba
Trung and Le Duan Street,
305 rooms.


(3/5) Hotel: Supply by district and grade

• Most 4 & 5-star 5-star 4-star 3-star
hotels are located No. of rooms
in District 1 (70%). 100%
• Follow in supply:
District 5, 3, Tan 80%
Binh and Phu
Nhuan. 60%

40%

20%

0%
District 1 District 3 District 5 Tan Binh Phu Nhuan Can Gio


(3/5) Hotel:
Market performance of 5 and 4-star hotels
5-star hotels: 4-star hotels:
• Room rate: US$117/night, remains • Room rate: US$72/night, -1% q-o-q.
unchanged • Occupancy: 54%
• Occupancy: 50%
Occupancy Occupancy
Average room rate Average room rate

% US$/room/night % US$/room/night
100% 200 100% 200

80% 160 80% 160

60% 120
60% 120

40% 80
40% 80

20% 40
20% 40

0% 0
0% 0 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009


(3/5) Hotel:
International visitors to Vietnam and HCMC by year

To HCMC (mil)
• To Vietnam: 2.8 million
To VN (mil)
visitors, -16% y-o-y No. of foreign visitors (million)
4.5
• To HCMC: 2 million 4.0
visitors, -12% y-o-y 3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Sep-
09


(3/5) Hotel: Future supply by year up 2012

Future supply
Up to 2012:
No. of rooms
•1,050 5-star rooms 1,900
1,700
•1,000 4-star rooms
1,500
1,300
1,100
900
700
500
300
100
2010E 2011E 2012E


New supply - River Park in Phu My Hung, D7
• New supply: 10 projects,
3,400 apartments
• Primary market: 34 active
projects, 5,620 apartments
• Secondary market: 91 sold
out projects, 41,500
apartments


Primary market by district

No. of units in active projects
Market share
• District 8: 1,200 Units %
apartments, 21% 1,400 25%
market share
1,200
20%
• District 7: 880 1,000
apartments, 16%
15%
market share 800

600
• District 2: 820 10%
apartments, 15% 400
market share 5%
200

0 0%

Tan Phu
Thu Duc
Dist. 8

Dist. 7

Dist. 2

Binh Tan

Nha Be

Binh Thanh

Tan Binh

Dist. 6

Dist. 11

Dist. 9

Dist. 4

Dist. 5
Go Vap

Primary supply
Market share (%)
Apartments %
• Grade A: 500 4,500 100
apartments, 9%
4,000
market share
3,500 80
• Grade B: 890
3,000
apartments, 16% 60
market share 2,500
2,000
• Grade C: 4,230 40
apartments, 75% 1,500
market share 1,000 20
500
0 0


Secondary market by district

Apartments Secondary supply
13,000
Market share:
11,000

• District 7: 26% 9,000

7,000
• Binh Thanh District: 5,000
12% 3,000
1,000
• District 2: 11% Dist. 7 Binh Dist. 2 Binh Nha Be Tan Phu Dist. 4 Dist. 8 Dist. 1 Thu Duc
Thanh Chanh

Secondary supply
Apartments
1,300
1,100
900
700
500
300
Dist. 5 Binh Tan Dist. 6 Dist. 9 Go Vap Tan Binh Dist. 11 Dist. 3 Dist. 12 Phu
Nhuan


Primary market performance by district
Primary supply in Q3 2009
Primary supply in Q3 2009
# of units sold in Q3 2009
# of units sold in Q3 2009
Average Primary Price
Average Primary Price
Apartments US$ per sq m Apartments US$ per sq m
1,400 2,500 1,000 2,500

900
1,200
2,000 800 2,000

1,000
700

1,500 600 1,500
800

500

600
1,000 400 1,000

300
400

500 200 500
200
100

0 0 0 0
Dist. 8 Dist. 7 Dist. 2 Thu Binh Nha Be Binh Tan Dist. 6 Dist. 11 Tan Phu Go Vap Dist. 9 Dist. 4 Dist. 5
Duc Tan Thanh Binh


(4/5) Apartment for sale: Demand
• High population: due to high birth rate & large
number of migrants
• Apr 2009: HCMC population stands at 7.1
million via Population and Housing Census
conducted every 10 years.
• High income and saving recorded
• Low debt recorded
• High speed urbanization: in every direction from
the city centre.
• Banking market: more attractive mortgage plans,
up to 70% value and repayment time is up to 20
years.



By 2012: 46,000 # of planned units
apartments are planned # of planned projects
Apartments Projects
for launch. 25,000 40

35

20,000
30

25
15,000

20

10,000
15

10
5,000

5

0 0
2010 2011 2012


Future supply by district up to 2012
Future supply
• Districts 7, 9 and Market share
District 2 will be the 14,000
Apartments %
30%
main future supply
(50%). 12,000
25%

• District 9 is emerging
10,000
as one of the main 20%
suppliers in HCMC in
8,000
the mid-term. 15%

6,000

10%
4,000

5%
2,000

0 0%
Dist. 7 Dist. 9 Dist. 2 Nha Be Dist. 8 Dist. 1 Go Vap Thu Duc Binh Tan Others


(5/5) Serviced Apartment: Total supply
• Total supply: 48 serviced Kumho Asiana Plaza
apartment buildings, 2,670
units.
- Grade A: 7 buildings, 658 units
- Grade B: 11 buildings, 1,272
units
- Grade C: 30 buildings, 740 units
• New supply: Kumho Asiana
Plaza, 260 units


(5/5) Serviced Apartment: Supply by district
No. of Units
Districts 1 and 3 are
Market share
considered well- No. of units %
developed supplied 1,600 100%

for serviced 1,400
apartments (67%). 80%
1,200

1,000
60%

800

40%
600

400
20%
200

0 0%
Dist. 1 Dist. 3 Binh Thanh Dist. 2 Dist. 7 Dist. 10 Phu Nhuan Tan Binh


(5/5) Serviced Apartment: Supply by grade
Supply
Market share
Market share No. of units %
1400 60%
• Grade A: 25%
• Grade B: 48% 1200 50%

• Grade C: 28% 1000
40%
800
30%
600

20%
400

200 10%

0 0%


(5/5) Serviced Apartment:
Market performance of Grade A and Grade B
Grade A Grade B
Rent: US$27/ sq m, -6% q-o-q Rent: US$24/ sq m, -2% q-o-q
Occupancy: 64% Occupancy: 94%
Vacancy units
Leased units Vacancy units
Average rent Leased units
Average rent
Units US$/ sqm/ month Units US$/ sq m/ month
800 40 1,400 40

35 1,200 35

600 30 1,000
30

25 25
800
400 20 20
600
15 15
400
200 10 10

200 5
5

0 0 0 0
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 09


(5/5) Serviced Apartment:
By 2012: 1,400 serviced apartments to be launched.
New Stock
No. of Units
1000

800

600

400

200

0
2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E


VIET NAM ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Q3 2009

•Presented by Savills Vietnam Co., Ltd.
Oct 2009

Viet Nam economic overview
Remittance from overseas Vietnamese (1996 – 2009E)

US$ Billion
9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Est.
2009
Remittance

Source: General Statistic Office, Q3 2009

National GDP growth rate (1998 – Q1-Q3 2009)

US$ Billion
100 9%

8%
80 7%

6%
60
5%

4%
40
3%

20 2%

1%

0 0%
Q1- Q3
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
09

GDP at current price 27.2 28.5 30.6 32.3 33.6 38.7 45.4 53.3 61.0 70.0 88.5 64.8
GDP grow th rate 5.80% 4.80% 6.00% 6.80% 6.90% 7.24% 7.70% 8.40% 8.17% 8.48% 6.23% 4.56%


FDI to Viet Nam

Billion US$
70.0

60.0

50.0

40.0

30.0

20.0

10.0

0.0
Q1-Q3
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
2009

Pledged FDI 3.2 4.5 6.8 10.2 20.3 64.0 12.54
Disbursed FDI 2.65 2.85 2.45 3.6 8.3 11.5 7.2


CPI of Viet Nam

%
50.0
45.0 CPI
40.0 CPI - Food & Foodstuff
35.0 CPI - Construction materials

30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
01/08 02/08 03/08 04/08 05/08 06/08 07/08 08/08 09/08 10/08 11/08 12/08 01/09 02/09 03/09 04/09 05/09 06/09 07/09 08/09 09/09


CONTACT

Ha Noi Office
13th Floor, Pacific Place
83B Ly Thuong Kiet, Hanoi
Tel: (04) 3946 1300
Fax: (04) 3946 1302
Hanoi-info@savills.com.vn

HCMC Office
18th Floor, Fideco Tower
81 - 85 Ham Nghi street, District 1, HCMC
Tel: (08) 3823 9205
Fax: (08) 3823 4571
Hcmc-info@savills.com.vn

Saigon South Office
2nd Floor, The Laurence S.Ting Building
801 Nguyen Van Linh Parkway
Tan Phu Ward, District 7, HCMC
Tel: (08) 3412 0100
Fax: (08) 3412 0199
www.savills.com.vn

Savills Vietnam - Q3 2009 - Hanoi & HCMC Market Presentation

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