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Lessons Learned from Asia




How Beijing, Tokyo and Seoul are relevant to L.A.


  Benjamin Joffe, CEO | Plus Eight Star | Santa Monica, 2009.07
Here is the plan

0.   Introduction
1.   How Asia can innovate
2.   China | 5Cs of Innovation
3.   Japan | Mobile Galapagos
4.   Korea | Ultra-broadband laboratory
5.   Closing & Questions
0.
Introduction
Benjamin Joffe
 ベンジャミン
   벤자민
   本杰明
4 years

          1 year
                   4 years
www.plus8star.com
Innovation Arbitrage
  China | Japan | Korea
What we do
– Worked with mobile SNS in Japan in 2003
   • With avatars, virtual goods and GPS!

– Advise leading companies worldwide
   • Microsoft, Adidas (E-commerce / Digital strategy)
   • IMVU (US | 3D chat / Virtual World)
   • MIH (China/S.Africa | Largest shareholder of Tencent)

– First commercial report on Tencent “Inside QQ”

– Partner of 3D social gaming startup Cmune

– Co-Founded Mobile Monday in Beijing
Our clients

EUROPE                   USA




                  ASIA
1
How Asia can innovate
Claim #1


The biggest barriers to
understanding are our
    assumptions
General assumption #1

Everything from USA is   great
General assumption #2

Everything from Asia is    weird
          (and sometimes funny)
Two examples
Movie 1
Magnificent Seven   Seven Samurai
     (1960)            (1954)
Movie 2
The Matrix   Ghost in the Shell
  (1999)       (1989/1995)
Using best scripts & Talent
• Adapted from Asian movies
  – Fistful of Dollars      Yojimbo
  – Star Wars               Hidden Fortress (partly)
  – The Ring                (id.)
  – Shall We Dance?         (id.)
  – My Sassy Girl           (id.)
  – The Departed            Internal Affairs

• Asian movies succeeding “as is”
  – Kungfu movies, Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon…
Old Boy – Made in Hollywood


    Directed by Steven Spielberg
         Starring Will Smith
         In theaters in 2010
Who came first?
Leveraging best practices
Claim #2
Innovation is a consequence of

           Talent
       Market size
      Infrastructure
        Investment
Internet      Mobile
1.3 billion   3.3 billion




                    Source: Morgan Stanley, 2007
Digital Population



   Country         USA       China      Japan      Korea
  Population     300 mln   1,300 mln   130 mln     50 mln
Internet users   225 mln    340 mln    100 mln     35 mln
 Mobile users    260 mln    650 mln    100 mln     45 mln

                   x5                  1,680 mln
                   x2       Total      475 mln
                   x3                  785 mln
IT Infrastructure
           100%

                                                    Avg. 7 Mbps
           80%

                                                                  Avg. 15 Mbps
           60%
3G users




           40%                C
                              hi
                              n
           20%                a Avg. 4 Mbps


                                                              www.plus8star.com
            0%
                  0%           20%            40%          60%                   80%
                       % of Internet connections measured above 5Mbps
                                     (Source: Akamai, 4Q08)
Alexa Quiz
         USA        China   Japan   Korea
 #1    Google
 #2     Yahoo
 #3   Facebook
 #4   YouTube
 #5
 #6
 #7
      MySpace
         MSN
         Live
                            ?
 #8   Wikipedia
 #9   Craigslist
#10      eBay
Alexa Quiz
         USA          China         Japan         Korea
 #1    Google         Baidu     Yahoo JP / SB     Naver
 #2     Yahoo        Tencent         FC2          Yahoo
 #3   Facebook         Sina       Google JP       Daum
 #4   YouTube      Google China   YouTube        YouTube
 #5   MySpace        Taobao       Rakuten         Google
 #6      MSN         Netease      Livedoor       Cyworld
 #7      Live        Google        Ameblo          Nate
 #8   Wikipedia        Sohu          Mixi       Google KR
 #9   Craigslist      Youku      Wikipedia         Live
#10      eBay         Yahoo          Goo        Facebook
Alexa Quiz
          USA          China        Japan       Korea
#11       AOL           Soso       Google       (error)
#12     Blogger         Ku6          MSN        Tistory
#13     Amazon       Kaixin001    Nicovideo JoongAn Ilbo
#14       Go            Mop       Amazon JP Chosun Ilbo
#15      CNN            Live      2 Channel      MSN
#16     Twitter      PCOnline        Nifty     Gmarket
#17    Microsoft      56.com     Yourfilehost    Paran
#18      Flickr      Yahoo CN      Biglobe     Auction
#19      ESPN          Sogou     Geocities JP  Blogger
#20   Photobucket   Tom Online   Infoseek JP  Friendster
Claim #3


Innovation is beyond technology
       (it’s about services ^_^)
Technology?


     e.g. LAMP stack
(Linux / Apache / MySQL / PHP)
    + HTML / Flash / AJAX…
Largely commoditized…
2
China
Claim #4


China is innovating more and
      more because of
       five key factors
5Cs of Innovation™
a. Copy
“Benchmarking”
               “Inspiration”
              “Best practice”

“If I have seen farther it is only by standing on
             the shoulders of Giants.”




                (Isaac Newton)
Pragmatic Entrepreneurs & Investors



           Innovation ROI?

            “Blue oceans”
Entry barriers

     Technology?
       Capital?
        Talent?
Intellectual Property?
     Censorship?
The Underpants Gnomes
Business Plan
Copy can backfire!
Japan: Mayonnaise
China: Whipped Cream
Copycats often die


• Market not sustainable

• Business model does not work
b. “China”
Scale / Geography / Demography
   make some services viable
Already in 2007               ...$1 billion do not
(We even published a report…)    appear overnight
Attention Threshold
           =
  1 billion dollars?
Market Capitalization
       (June 2009)




  3-15 bln?    21 bln

                 REAL MARKET CAP
Maybe simply not looking?
c. Combination
Will it blend?
Tencent (1998)
d. Competition
“Survival of the fittest”




  (Herbert Spencer)
What happens when you have
         4 Facebook
         20 YouTube
        10 MySpace
        5 Match.com
           3 Yahoo
          4 Twitter

            ?
Tough Spots
                                   Sociology

                                   Psychology
              “Concepts”
                                Business models




                            Marketing
“Execution”
                              Metrics

                           Feedback loop

                             Payment
e. Constraints
“Necessity is the mother of invention”
                (Plato)
Low GDP/capita
Small transactions / making millions from cents
Limited advertising
Alternative business models / B2B to B2C
No credit cards
Alternative payment systems,
  mobile, virtual currencies
No legacy industry
  (is it a constraint?)
Leading Companies
mln USD

1,200   www.plus8star.com
                                   1047

1,000

 800

 600                                                                        522
                                                429     452        468                439
 400                      370


 200
            97

   0         Kongzhong      Si a
                             n     Tencent      Sohu      N ease
                                                           et       Bai u
                                                                      d      Shanda    Al aba
                                                                                        b
                                                                                        i




          Mobile         Web       IM        Portal +   Online     Search   Online       Only B2B
          content        Portal              Games      games      engine   games     e-commerce part
Gaming in China
                                              Profits of 9 listed companies
                                    80%
      Profit margin2008 (mln USD)




                                    70%
                                    60%
                                    50%
                                    40%
                                    30%
                                    20%
                                    10%
                                                                                 www.plus8star.com
                                    0%
                                          0     100   200       300        400    500          600

                                                       Revenue 2008 (mln USD)



Note: The profit Margin for Tencent game and NetEase is taken as the one of the whole company.
Battlefield by Electronic Arts
When we started two years ago, there
was a real question mark: Can the free-
to-play model work as it did in Asia?

The answer is an emphatic yes.




                                          Ben Cousins
                                          General manager
                                          Battlefield Heroes team
                                          Electronic Arts
More innovation
Lihua | Order food over IM
Alimama | Ad exchange + Micro-retail
Babytree | Vertical for young parents
Huica | Mobile coupons
PPLive | P2P Internet TV
Hozom | Address book + SNS
iNezha | RSS-to-IM
Qifang | P2P Micro-lending
Digu | Twitter + Pics + Celebs
Lakoo | Appstore for non-iPhones
2
Japan
Claim #5

  Japan is the world’s most
  advanced mobile market
             AND
Too isolated for its own good
Beyond Voice & Beyond Telecom

                      50%           50%
      92%



     3G          Mobile TV       NFC


                      40%
          50%
                                  95%



Flat-rate Data   Data ARPU   Non-SMS Share
In addition
• Business models
  – Micro-payments since 1999 (“i-mode”)
  – “App store” since 2001

• Content
  – Mobile music, mobile ads, mobile commerce…
  – Financial services by mobile carriers

• LTE at 300Mbps starts next year!
Mobile Market

• Mobile content
  – 4.3 billion USD in FY07
  – 40 USD / user / year


• Mobile commerce
  – 7.3 billion USD
  – 70 USD / user / year
Before & After 3G
                                                 2004       2007
                      1,186
              1,200                                                                             1,140
                                   1,091                                    www.plus8star.com

              1,000
                                             862
               800
Million USD




               600        568
                                                                                            500
                                           419
               400
                                 204                        225                 229231
                                                                      185
               200                                                 108
                                                        0
                 0
Galapagos Syndrome




• No foreign mobile brand is strong in Japan
• Too complex to survive abroad?
Some examples that work
“Social Networking
 Is Not a Business”

MIT Technology Review
  July/August 2008
And more (April 2009)
Mobile Social Networks?
Social Networks


Company                 Mixi         DeNA          GREE
Reg. users              16 mln       12 mln        8 mln
Usage                   2/3 mobile   100% mobile   100% mobile
Revenue 2008            $120 mln     $320 mln      $60 mln
Profit margin           31%          40%           63%
From users              5%           80%           75%
Market capitalization   $500 mln     $1.4 bln      $1.2 bln

                                                   www.plus8star.com
Mobile Game Town
Revenue Breakdown




   [1 billion JPY = 10 million USD]
Japan Game Market




   [1 billion JPY = 10 million USD]
More successes
Golf Digest Online
• What is it?
  – Golf online vertical

• Numbers
  – 1.37M registered users
  – 128M USD, 6.9M USD profit, Listed

• Business models
  – Ads, e-commerce (booking, products),
    subscriptions
Cookpad
• What is it?
  – Cooking focused vertical

• Numbers
  – 6.67 M USD rev., 1.76M profit
  – Profitable, IPO

• Business models
  – Ads, subscriptions, lead generation
So-Net M3
• What is it?
  – “Medicine” “Media” “Metamorphosis”
  – “Social network for doctors” / Vertical site on
    medical products.

• Numbers
  – 177,000 doctors
  – 85 M USD rev., 24 M net profit, Listed

• Business models
  – Advertising, subscriptions, surveys, jobs
Various Virtual Worlds
• Services
  – Nicotto Town (250K)
  – Ameba Pigg (350K)



• Content & business models
  – 2D
  – Virtual items
  – Avatars and spaces
3
Korea
Claim #6

 Korea is a window into the
    future of broadband
            AND
Foreign companies leverage
    Korea’s ideas better
Online Games
• 1 billion USD market
  – Larger than Japan with 1/3 population and 1/2 its
    GDP/capita
  – 1/3 of China’s


• Pioneer of
  – Online gaming!
  – Virtual goods model

                             Kingdom of the Wind (Nexon, 1996)
Cyworld
• Real-name SNS
• Beats FB and
  MySpace
• Virtual goods
  – Avatars
  – Page skins
  – BGM
  – Fonts!
• … since 1999!
Naver
• Google & Yahoo’s
  nemesis in Korea

• Innovations
  – “360 search”
  – Yahoo Answers
  – Since 2002!

• More
  – Knowledge shopping, etc.
Alternative Media Models
• Citizen journalism | OhmyNews

• Video Jockey “VJ” | Afreeca.tv

• Online education | Megastudy

• Various smaller services with innovative
  concepts.
Contacts

www.plus8star.com

benjamin@plus8star.com
                                       +81 | Japan
benjamin0123                           +82 | Korea

http://twitter.com/plus8star           +86 | China

                                    Telecom & Internet
www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminjoffe
                                      + Added Value

www.slideshare.net/plus8star          * High quality

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