Canada| Economic and Fiscal Scorecard| December 2021 and November 2021

Fiscal and Economic
Scorecard – Canada
– December 2021
and November 2021
Paul Young CPA CGA
February 1, 2022

Paul Young - Bio
• CPA, CGA (1996)
• Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and MS2)
• SME – Customer Success Management
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Macro/Micro Indicators
• SME – Supply Chain Management
• SME – Data, AI, Security, and Platform
• SME – Internal Controls and Auditing
Contact information email: Paul_Young_CGA@hotmail.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-young-055632b/
SlideShare - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga
Twitter: https://twitter.com/paulyoungcpa
Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/user/youngercga1968/videos

3
Agenda
• Key Metrics
• Employment – Canada
• Trade – Canada
• Manufacturing – Canada
• Housing – Canada
• Cost of Living / Canada
• Electricity
• Fiscal Update / Canada
• Blog – Path Forward – Budget 2021
• Blog – Pharmacare
• Blog – Job Quality
• Blog – Climate change
• Blog – Plastics
• Blog – Wind and Recycling
• Blog – Competitiveness
• Blog – Energy Crisis
• Blog – Electrical Vehicles
• Blog – Critical Metals
• Blog – Monetary Policies
• Blog – Retail Sector
• Blog – Transforming the Public Sector
• Blog – ESG Reporting
• Summary

GDP by Industry
GDP - Canada -
November 2021.pdf
Both services-producing (+0.6%) and goods-producing (+0.5%) industries were up, as 17 of 20 industrial sectors posted increases in
November.
Advance information indicates that real GDP for December was essentially unchanged. Widespread increases led by the manufacturing,
agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, utilities and wholesale trade sectors were offset by declines in the accommodation and food
services, mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction and retail trade sectors. This advance information for real GDP by industry indicates
a 1.6% uptick in the fourth quarter of 2021 and a rebound of 4.9% in the year following the pandemic-induced decline observed in 2020.
Given their preliminary nature, these estimates will be updated on March 1, 2022 with the release of the official GDP data for December
and the fourth quarter of 2021.
Source - https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220201/dq220201a-eng.htm

8
GDP Growth and Deficits
Source – Stats Canada, BMO, and Finance Department –
Canada

December 21 vs November 2015
Summary:
Canada gain 55K net new jobs. Majority of those jobs were with manufacturing and construction. Both those sectors have
skills gap issues that need to be address.
The goods-producing sector continues to trail other sectors over the past 6 years in terms of job growth. Canada should be a
world leader in sustainable forestry, mining, energy production. Those sectors pay 30-40% more than the service sector.
Canada like many countries is heading back to an era of big government. Government jobs are nearly 22% of the total
employment.
More and more jobs are being automated. All levels of government need to work better with private sector to ensure youth
today have the skills of today and tomorrow.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/employment-and-labour-market-canada-december-2021

Employment / Analysis
Summary:
Canada gain 55K net new jobs. Majority of those jobs were with manufacturing and construction. Both those sectors have skills gap issues that need
to be address.
The goods-producing sector continues to trail other sectors over the past 6 years in terms of job growth. Canada should be a world leader in
sustainable forestry, mining, energy production. Those sectors pay 30-40% more than the service sector.
Canada like many countries is heading back to an era of big government. Government jobs are nearly 22% of the total employment.
More and more jobs are being automated. All levels of government need to work better with private sector to ensure youth today have the skills of
today and tomorrow.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/employment-and-labour-market-canada-december-2021

Stats Canada - Trade
Trade - Canada -
November 2021.pdf
Summary:
Canada hit the highest trade surplus in years led by energy, electrical equipment, and transportation.
Canada lost a trade ruling to USA on dairy subsidization
Canada is struggling to get the USA to change their stance on electrical vehicles and softwood lumber.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/merchandise-tradecanada-november-2021

12
Manufacturing – Canada

Blog – What is next for Canada’s Manufacturing Sector
Manufacturing sales rose for a second consecutive month in November, rising 2.6% to $63.1 billion on higher
sales in 18 of 21 industries, led by the primary metal, petroleum and coal product, non-metallic mineral, and food
product industries.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-what-is-next-for-manufacturing-
november-2021-and-december-2021

13
Housing – Canada
Summary:
The value of mortgages in Canada have hit an all-time high.
The cost of construction materials has seen double digit growth.
Local government need to adopt innovation like 3D printing for housing.
Lumber costs have grown by 40% in two months.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-address-systemic-issues-with-affordabiity-and-availability-of-
housing

14
Cost of Living

Summary:
Inflation continues to be an issue for many Canadians.
Green inflation continues to key part of the rise of inflation
More and more people are being left out of the housing market
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/cost-of-living-canada-december-2021

15
Electricity
Blog – What is going on with Electricity Market? https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/electricity-analysis-
and-commentary-october-2021

16
Fiscal Monitor – Canada
Summary:
The federal government ran a budget deficit of $73.7 billion for
the April to November period of the current fiscal year.
The Finance Department says the result compared with a deficit
of $232 billion in the same period a year earlier.
Source - https://www.advisor.ca/news/economic/eight-month-deficit-
feds-spent-73-7-billion-more-than-they-took-in/

PRESENTATION TITLE 2/11/20XX 17
Summary:
Stocks surged into the close reversing earlier losses on Friday as investors took in earnings results from some major tech
companies and another hot print on inflation at the end of another volatile week.
The S&P 500 closed up 2.4%, posting a weekly advance and ending a three-week losing streak. The the Dow ended
higher by 1.65%, and Nasdaq gained 3%.
Technology stocks led the way higher as Apple (AAPL) jumped after the iPhone-maker reported record quarterly sales
and better-than-expected profits despite supply chain challenges. Meanwhile, Robinhood (HOOD) shares shook off
overnight losses to trade higher after the trading platform missed on quarterly revenue, posted a larger-than-expected
quarterly decline in users, and offered disappointing guidance.
Source - https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-january-28-2022-231329863.html
1. Stock Market - https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-market-rally-steps-up-as-apple-
leads-but-be-wary-5-key-earnings/
2. Commodity - https://capital.com/commodity-supercycle-explained
3. Geopolitical risks - https://www.eurasiagroup.net/issues/top-risks-2022
4. Income inequality - https://www.advisor.ca/news/economic/income-inequality-improved-to-record-low-in-q3/
5. GDP Growth - https://insurancenewsnet.com/oarticle/gdp-growth-in-2021-signals-a-strong-economic-recovery
6. Housing - https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/127530138/new-zealands-runaway-housing-market-not-unique-
globally
7. Pensions - https://www.pionline.com/industry-voices/commentary-what-could-mandatory-temperature-alignment-mean-uk-
pension-funds
8. Insurance - https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/au/news/breaking-news/allianz-boss-lifts-lid-on-risk-barometer-323651.aspx
9. ESG - https://www.wealthprofessional.ca/news/industry-news/canadas-biggest-public-companies-are-lagging-on-esg-
reporting/363539
10. Consumer spending - https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/u-consumer-spending-drops-inflation-135649366.html
Blog – Stock Market – W/E – January 28, 2022
globalweekahead202
20128.pdf
weekly-economic-wat
ch_20222801.pdf
BottomLine_20220128
.pdf
CFIB Small Business
Barometer (January 2022).pdf
Stock Equity - WE -
January 28 2022.pdf
WestpacWeekly20220
131.pdf
Commentary What
could mandatory temperature alignment mean for U.K. pension funds Pensions & Investments.pdf
Allianz boss lifts lid
on Risk Barometer Insurance Business Australia.pdf
Canada's biggest
public companies are lagging on ESG reporting Wealth Professional.pdf
U.S. Consumer
Spending Drops With Inflation Hitting 40-Year High.pdf
Stock market news
live updates Stock gains accelerate into the close S&P 500 adds 2.4%.pdf
Dow Jones Futures
Market Rally Steps Up As Apple Leads, But Be Wary; 5 Key Earnings Investor's Business Daily.pdf
What is a commodity
supercycle and are we in one right now .pdf
Eurasia Group Top
Risks 2022.pdf
Income inequality
improved to record low in Q3 Advisor's Edge.pdf
GDP Growth In 2021
Signals A Strong Economic Recovery - InsuranceNewsNet.pdf
New Zealand's
runaway housing market not unique globally Stuff.co.nz.pdf
Summary:
Stocks surged into the close reversing earlier losses on Friday as investors took in earnings
results from some major tech companies and another hot print on inflation at the end of another
volatile week.
The S&P 500 closed up 2.4%, posting a weekly advance and ending a three-week losing streak.
The the Dow ended higher by 1.65%, and Nasdaq gained 3%.
Technology stocks led the way higher as Apple (AAPL) jumped after the iPhone-maker reported
record quarterly sales and better-than-expected profits despite supply chain challenges.
Meanwhile, Robinhood (HOOD) shares shook off overnight losses to trade higher after the
trading platform missed on quarterly revenue, posted a larger-than-expected quarterly decline in
users, and offered disappointing guidance.
Source - https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-january-28-2022-
231329863.html
1. Stock Market - https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-
futures-market-rally-steps-up-as-apple-leads-but-be-wary-5-key-earnings/
2. Commodity - https://capital.com/commodity-supercycle-explained
3. Geopolitical risks - https://www.eurasiagroup.net/issues/top-risks-2022
4. Income inequality - https://www.advisor.ca/news/economic/income-inequality-improved-to-
record-low-in-q3/

Canada and Stock Market
2/11/20XX 18
Stock Equity - WE -
January 28 2022.pdf

19
Path Forward for Canada
Blog – What is next for Canada
• The new normal means likely changes on how parts of the GDP work including capacity restrictions for
sectors like hospitality, tourism, and entertainment.
• Development of natural resources in sustainable way
• Protecting the environment while growing the economy
• Addressing issues with job quality
• Addressing issues with the cost of living
• Implementing tax fairness policies
• Addressing the delivery model for government including more performance audits and value for money
audits.
Source - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-the-path-forward-for-canada-october-2021

20
Commodities
Commodity prices continue to experience a bull market
Australia seems have done a better job of managing its environment as part of natural resources extraction
process as compared to Canada. Australia ranks 13th as compared to 20th by Canada. Australia has been running
trade surpluses for over 4 years as compared to Canada who has one year of trade surpluses.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-next-for-the-natural-resources-sector

21
Pharmacare
“The federal government is out of excuses: It’s time to get serious about pharmacare”
https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/features/the-federal-government-is-out-of-excuses-its-time-to-get-
serious-about-pharmacare/
The program with this article is there no focus on various government drug programs that need to be
consolidated. There also needs to be focus on a made in Canada solutions related to drug development.
My work - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/biotech-and-pharmaceutical-september-2021

22
Job Quality
Blog – Job Quality and Job Vacancies – Canada –
December 2021
Canada has nearly 1M job vacancies
Majority of the job vacancies are jobs that pay less
than the average wage
The goods-producing sector continues to lag other
sectors in terms of job growth
Government policies have not addressed the skill gap
issues

23
Climate Change
Blog – Growing the Circular Economy through better Climate Mitigation Policies
I support better policies that encourage both the private and public sectors to move their operation model to zero-
waste. More work needs to be done on policies related to waste-to-energy (CCA) or abolishing carbon taxation or
streamlining of regulations and taxes or tax credits for environmental work, i.e., tree plant or water management or
other areas of the environment.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-advance-the-circular-economy-through-climate-mitigation-policies

24
Plastics
Plastics play a key role as part of disease mitigation including masks, dividers, storage, etc. The real issue is how
best to recycle the plastics as part diverted waste from waterways and landfill sites.
https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/plastic-resin-emerges-as-tiniest-example-of-
enduring-covid-19-supply-chain-crunch-273555/
My work: https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-maximized-the-circular-economy-250318403

25
Wind Turbines and Recycling
Blog – Wind Power and Recycling - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-young-055632b_to-end-wind-power-
waste-siemens-gamesa-designs-activity-6848534185544699904-bg01
There needs to be a global strategy on how to recycle the old blades. https://windeurope.org/newsroom/press-
releases/wind-industry-calls-for-europe-wide-ban-on-landfilling-turbine-blades/

26
Competitiveness
@MPJulian and the NDP
Shutdown tax-havens.
Fix the tax act.
Getting more value for money out of program spending
The focus should be on protecting the environment while
growing the economy in a sustainable way.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/tax-fairness-and-
business-competitiveness-analysis

27
Energy Crisis
Australia exported 3-13 million tons per month of coal to China in 2020. If China needs 50 million tons per month that
is rapid increase in coal production. It is unclear in China and Australia would be able to ramp to meet the demand.
China is already in a shortage of perhaps 50 million tons per month.
If there is a rapid surge in coal importing to China, there could be overbidding that causes shortages for other Asian
countries. This will also make the supply chain problems even worse.
Prioritizing heating over electricity means more factory shutdowns.
Prioritizing heating coal imports over other supply chain means that the 200 ships waiting to get unloaded get bumped
back at the ports for hundreds of coal ships.
China having coal production problems is tough because building other sources of electricity and heating will take
years. Especially if China wants to get beyond current levels to support 6% per year GDP growth.
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2021/10/173364.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+bl
ogspot%2Fadvancednano+%28nextbigfuture%29
This ties nicely to my work on energy - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/world-heading-energy-crisis-paul-young/

28
Electrical Vehicles
Blog - World Largest Plug-in Station provider promises full charge in 15 minutes - Electrical Vehicles
Technology company ABB made an announcement stating it has created the quickest electric vehicle charger. ABB claims that in just under
three minutes, its charger, the Terra 360, can provide a range of 62 miles. Leave the vehicle plugged in for 15 minutes, and it can be fully
charged.
New Atlas reports ABB’s Terra 360 possesses a maximum output of 360 kW. The charger resembles a gasoline pump and has four ports and
16-foot retractable cables that allow it to charge as many as four vehicles at the same time. Although, if four vehicles are charging
simultaneously, the kW decreases to 90.
https://www.thomasnet.com/insights/world-s-fastest-ev-charger-promises-full-battery-in-15-minutes/?ecms_id=8afea2aa-cf09-4d8c-996c-
d6af6c50fd63&ecms_short=ART5963&doc_type=ted_video_article&parent_id=4a24fd38-8dd6-4945-8747-
c1c52587a6e5&utm_content=featuredvideo&linktype=title&channel=email&campaign_type=thomas_industry_update&campaign_name=tiu
211026&utm_campaign=tiu211026&utm_medium=email&utm_source=thomas_industry_update&tinid=221763045
Additional Links:
eVehicles - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/electrical-vehicles-and-plugin-stations-adoption-october-2021
Plug-in stations issues - https://www.wealth-wave.com/wealth-wave/3-ev-speedbumps-3-potential-profits/
Grid limitations - https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/1020/1254828-maxol-20m-investment/
Grid connection issues - https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6224159
Car rentals - https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/25/tesla-hertz-ev-deal-signal-to-rental-car-fleets-its-time-for-electric.html

29
Natural Resources / Critical Metals
Blog – Natural Resources Sector – What is next – October 2021
Canada’s natural resources sector is about 11% of its GDP. Canada needs to put a focus on development of its’ natural
resources in a sustainable way as part of support the green and circular economy.
Canada has sizeable reserves in the areas of critical metals - https://mineralprices.com/canada-should-take-the-lead-in-
global-critical-minerals-development-panel/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=canada-should-take-
the-lead-in-global-critical-minerals-development-panel
My work
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-next-for-canada-and-worlds-natural-resources-250492008
Key stocks - https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/critical-metals-investing/rare-earth-investing/top-
canadian-rare-earths-stocks/

30
Monetary Policies – BOC
Key Implications
In the latest highly anticipated decision, the Bank of Canada changed up the script. It pulled forward the timing of
when it expected the output gap to close to the middle quarters of next year as it judged that supply disruptions were
weighing more heavily on the economy's productive capacity. So, even as the GDP forecast was revised down in this
MPR, the output gap closed sooner than what the Bank had projected in July.
In terms of our own view, we expect the Bank will raise rates three times next year, taking the overnight rate to 1%
by the end of 2022. Inflation is heating up, and it would be prudent to remove some monetary stimulus as the
economy continues down the road to recovery.
We must acknowledge that there is significant uncertainty around the economic outlook right now. A resurgence of
the pandemic could result in greater stimulus, but if there is a faster-than-expected acceleration in household
spending, the Bank could raise rates at a faster clip. The Bank of Canada is showing that it is nimble and will react
quickly to the evolving economic landscape.
https://economics.td.com/ca-boc-interest-rate-announcement
Additional Links:
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-next-for-global-monetary-policies-october-2021

31
Transforming the Retail Sector
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/industry-news/property-report/article-innovation-driving-transformation-of-retail/
The shift of consumer spending to the digital realm is driving the transformation of physical retail into an immersive,
“phygital” experience, Ms. Nicholls says.
“Omnichannel has been a buzzword in retail for a long time,” says Ashley Barby, founder of Toronto-based, retail-
innovators hub FashionTech, whose report, Store of the Future, was released this month.
As pandemic restrictions continue to ease, customers will expect “a post-omnichannel world – or a channel-less
environment – where everything has merged, and the customer transacts seamlessly within all of them.
Additional links:
Australia – Retail Sales – August 2021 - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/retai-sales-australia-august-2021
Canada - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/retail-sales-and-consumer-spending-canada-august-2021
USA - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/retail-sales-usa-september-2021

32
Transforming the Public Sector
Blog – How to fix the Governance Model for
the Public Sector -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/h
ow-to-fix-the-goverance-model-for-the-
public-sector-government-249941842
Source - https://www.auditboard.com/

33
ESG Reporting
Blog - 88 percent of Industrial Businesses Are Now Prioritizing Sustainable Manufacturing - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/blog-88-
percent-industrial-businesses-now-paul-young/?published=t
In a strategic move to increase operational efficiency while simultaneously reducing cost, many industrial business leaders have recently been
prioritizing sustainability throughout their facilities. Sustainable manufacturing, which the U.S. Department of Commerce defines as using
industrial processes that minimize negative environmental impacts and are safer for both employees and consumers, has been gaining
momentum lately amid what the United Nations calls the “Decade of Action.”
A recent study from Oxford Economics highlighted that 65% of companies have created a clear mission statement around sustainability, with
another 23% noting that they are in the process of developing such a statement, for a total of 88% of companies prioritizing sustainability.
Similarly, in a recent SAP survey, 46% of industrial business leaders shared that sustainability is top of mind for them throughout the
manufacturing process, and 68% of them have reduced energy consumption at their businesses.
https://www.thomasnet.com/insights/88-of-industrial-businesses-are-now-prioritizing-sustainable-manufacturing/?ecms_id=f3a900b0-35f4-
494d-8457-fda636ddd249&ecms_short=ART5960&doc_type=ted_video_article&parent_id=2fd67156-2dae-43a3-82d5-
fdf35ab36f99&utm_content=featuredvideo&linktype=title&channel=email&campaign_type=thomas_industry_update&campaign_name=tiu2
11018&utm_campaign=tiu211018&utm_medium=email&utm_source=thomas_industry_update&tinid=221763045
Additional links:
This ties nicely into my work - Clients/Customers are looking at the best way to integrate data into their reporting systems as well as ensuring
they are complying with various regulation filings as part of their GRC models -
Templates: https://ibm.box.com/s/nsbds2s5v8znpwqzc03p9urykbat38w0
Presentation: https://ibm.box.com/s/vmyitcackqevvm1hcxv7wke6gudrpnce

35
Summary
• New normal is hear to stay - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/new-normal-for-canada-
and-the-world-248752153
• Addressing issues facing the middle class - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-is-the-
middle-class-doing-in-canada
• All levels of government need a new governance model that emphasizes the size of government,
value for money, oversight, transparent, and accountability -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-fix-the-goverance-model-for-the-public-sector-
government
• Addressing issues with the global economy including reforming UN, WHO, WTO, and other areas of
global policies to support a more inclusive economy -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-next-for-the-global-economy-may-2021
• Addressing issues with debt - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/debt-issues-global-debt-
crisis-analysis-and-commentary-248282137

Training and Development
• If you like to learn more
about trade and/or other
subjects as part of your
professional learning,
and development then
feel free to review my
material on
https://www.udemy.com
/ (search Paul Young
CPA CGA)
• These subjects address
how to fixed issues with
housing and/or
systemic issues related
to economy including
government policies

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