State of the planet 2020 highland one world 3 december final
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Presented to educators on 3 December. Thanks to Highland One World for the invitation - you guys rock. Summary of knowledge on what we need to do to stabilise it. Building trust from facts.
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State of the planet 2020 highland one world 3 december final
- 1. OUR PLANET, OUR FUTURE HIGHLAND ONE WORLD Owen Gaffney @owengaffney 3 DECEMBER 2020
- 3. ”It always seems impossible until its done” Nelson Mandela
- 4. 4 1. This is a planetary emergency. 2. We have to act now. 3. Four positive social tipping points are here.
- 6. 6
- 8. Lenton et al. PNAS 2008
- 13. “Active” tipping elements Lenton et al Nature 2019
- 14. 14Xu, Lenton et al. PNAS 2020 Every 1°C rise in temperature pushes 1 billion people beyond the human climate niche
- 15. Heat wave in Japan Heat wave in Scandinavia Drought across Central Europe California wildfires Heat wave in Southwest U.S. Heavy flooding rains in mid- Atlantic U.S. Wildfires in Greece July 22, 2018 Low-pressure system Waveguide Rossby wave pattern Wave resonates in place High-pressure system Intense pressure systems K. Kornhuber et al., 2019, submitted D. Coumou et al., 2018, Nature Communications M. Mann, 2018, Science Advances March 2019 Jetstream intensifies synchronized weather extremes worldwide Synchronized Droughts in the Bread Baskets of the World Risk of multiple harvest failure
- 16. The Holocene Humanity’s 10,000 years of grace
- 17. Are We Heading Towards a Pliocene or Even Miocene Future...?
- 18. Welcome to the Anthropocene Video https://vimeo.com/39048998
- 19. The Great Acceleration Steffen, Broadgate, Deutsch, Gaffney, Ludwig Anthr. Review 2015. Image: Globaia
- 20. In 50 years we tipped from 10,000 years Holocene to the Anthropocene What we do next 50 years will determine next 10,000 years Image: Mattias Klum
- 21. Rockström et al Nature 2009
- 22. Steffen, Rockström, Cornell et al 2015 Science
- 24. 24 What are the solutions….or, how do we even organise our thinking about solutions in such a complex system? 1. Technical solutions 2. Economic solutions 3. Societal solutions
- 25. 25
- 26. https://climateclock.world/ 26 1.5°C Scenario – remaining budget for just a 67% change (2 in 3) is 7 years, 3 months Every month counts Ref: Mercator Institute for Global Commons and Climate Change
- 27. 7 years 28 days
- 30. Ericsson Internal | 2018-02-21
- 31. Ericsson Internal | 2018-02-21
- 32. Ericsson Internal | 2018-02-21 The G3 are changing course U.S Net zero 2050 Europe Net zero 2050 China Net zero before 2060
- 33. Societal solutions • 2009 Nobel Economics Laureate • 8 principles for managing common resources • Aim: raise social capital to bring out the best in people Elinor Ostrom
- 34. Ericsson Internal | 2018-02-21 Gaffney, based on Ostrom 1990
- 35. Ericsson Internal | 2018-02-21 Gaffney, based on Ostrom 1990
- 37. THE WORLD IS REACHING FOUR TIPPING POINTS
- 38. ACHIEVA BLE THE WORLD IS REACHING FOUR TIPPING POINTS
- 41. OUR PLANET, OUR FUTURE HIGHLAND ONE WORLD Owen Gaffney @owengaffney 3 DECEMBER 2020
Editor's Notes
- The world is reaching four key tipping points that give us a strong indication we can reach the 2020 climate turning point: [Click] The first of these, that we’ve touched on a little already, is the citizen movement tipping point. Over 1.5 million young people have been school striking for their futures. They’ve helped make climate change a mainstream, living room conversation over the last few months in ways that the climate NGO community has been unable to do for the last 30 years. As a result, a whole new generation around the world have become new spokespeople for the Paris Agreement, the science, and our target of 1.5. Last month the Extinction Rebellion forced a further step change in awareness of the climate emergency in the UK. Again – completely shifting the conversation. April 2019 saw the most mentions of climate change in the UK media since the December 2015 Paris Agreement coverage. It will soon be impossible to escape the loud howls of urgency coming from all corners of the globe. [Click] The second is the political momentum tipping point Costa Rica has already launched its new decarbonization plan, with a bold set of strategies and actions to get the country to net zero emissions by 2050. In the US, the Green New Deal proposed by Alexandria Occasio Cortez has been a lightening rod in Congress, changing the conversation on what a response to climate change could look like. And the UK parliament did declare a climate emergency. Meanwhile, in nearly every country polls show climate is a major concern, and in some, the public sentiment is way ahead of the politics. In Australia more than 60 percent of voters are seriously concerned about climate change. 70 percent want the government to set a high renewable energy target to put downward pressure on power prices and reduce emissions. And it’s not just citizens: 92 percent of business and industry respondents to one survey said Australia’s current climate and energy policy is insufficient to meet the required targets. [use local polling data pertinent to your region] [Click] The third tipping point is the real economy I’ve already covered the inexorable and hastening decline of coal thanks to exponential price shifts, the mass financial exodus from fossil fuels gathering pace in the financial sector, along with the exponential growth in renewables and the rapidly improving capacity of battery storage. Bill Clinton might now say: ‘it’s the real economy, stupid! [Click] And the fourth tipping point is what many are calling the fourth industrial revolution. This includes artificial intelligence and machine learning, which can dramatically improve energy efficiency; the internet of things, based on smart connections and metering that can help control the grid, and the fact that companies operating in this realm are radically collaborating via the Step Up Declaration, to ensure that their technical and disruptive capacities can be utilized across all sectors for rapid decarbonization. That collaboration includes some of the most well known technology disrupters like Uber, Lyft and WeWork, as well as some of the more mainstream tech companies like Salesforce.
- Wenn sich der Jetstream festsetzt, führt das zu lang anhaltenden Wetterlagen, zB zu lang anhaltender Hitze/Trockenheit wie 2018 PIK Studie zeigt erstmals, dass immer die selben Regionen betroffen sind, was vor allem an der Topographie der Erdmassen liegt. Betroffene Regionen sind ausgerechnet die Kornkammern der Erde Beispiele wo solche simultanen Hitzeextreme zu sprunghaft ansteigenden Nahrungsmittelpreisen geführt haben sind die Jahre 2003, 2006 und 2012
- Video https://vimeo.com/39048998
- Planetary boundaries, interrelationships between them, in particular climate change, land-system change and biosphere integrity.
- https://climateclock.world/
- Paris 2015. Five years ago. Carbon budget is very small – 730 Billion tonnes – emit
- Global Safety Net short film https://vimeo.com/455320291
- The world is reaching four key tipping points that give us a strong indication we can reach the 2020 climate turning point: [Click] The first of these, that we’ve touched on a little already, is the citizen movement tipping point. Over 1.5 million young people have been school striking for their futures. They’ve helped make climate change a mainstream, living room conversation over the last few months in ways that the climate NGO community has been unable to do for the last 30 years. As a result, a whole new generation around the world have become new spokespeople for the Paris Agreement, the science, and our target of 1.5. Last month the Extinction Rebellion forced a further step change in awareness of the climate emergency in the UK. Again – completely shifting the conversation. April 2019 saw the most mentions of climate change in the UK media since the December 2015 Paris Agreement coverage. It will soon be impossible to escape the loud howls of urgency coming from all corners of the globe. [Click] The second is the political momentum tipping point Costa Rica has already launched its new decarbonization plan, with a bold set of strategies and actions to get the country to net zero emissions by 2050. In the US, the Green New Deal proposed by Alexandria Occasio Cortez has been a lightening rod in Congress, changing the conversation on what a response to climate change could look like. And the UK parliament did declare a climate emergency. Meanwhile, in nearly every country polls show climate is a major concern, and in some, the public sentiment is way ahead of the politics. In Australia more than 60 percent of voters are seriously concerned about climate change. 70 percent want the government to set a high renewable energy target to put downward pressure on power prices and reduce emissions. And it’s not just citizens: 92 percent of business and industry respondents to one survey said Australia’s current climate and energy policy is insufficient to meet the required targets. [use local polling data pertinent to your region] [Click] The third tipping point is the real economy I’ve already covered the inexorable and hastening decline of coal thanks to exponential price shifts, the mass financial exodus from fossil fuels gathering pace in the financial sector, along with the exponential growth in renewables and the rapidly improving capacity of battery storage. Bill Clinton might now say: ‘it’s the real economy, stupid! [Click] And the fourth tipping point is what many are calling the fourth industrial revolution. This includes artificial intelligence and machine learning, which can dramatically improve energy efficiency; the internet of things, based on smart connections and metering that can help control the grid, and the fact that companies operating in this realm are radically collaborating via the Step Up Declaration, to ensure that their technical and disruptive capacities can be utilized across all sectors for rapid decarbonization. That collaboration includes some of the most well known technology disrupters like Uber, Lyft and WeWork, as well as some of the more mainstream tech companies like Salesforce.
- I believe there are strong signs that the 2020’s will see the fastest economic transition in history.