Economic Development Strategy Progress Report for Blaine County
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The document provides a progress report from TIP Strategies on an economic development strategy for Blaine County. TIP analyzed demographic, economic, and workforce data which showed trends like an aging population and more jobs than employed residents. Interviews identified weaknesses like a lack of higher education and threats like national economic impacts. Opportunities discussed were developing a countywide economic program, talent retention, and long-term redevelopment of the airport site to diversify beyond tourism. The report establishes a framework focusing on talent, innovation, and place-based assets to stimulate economic vitality.
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Economic Development Strategy Progress Report for Blaine County
- 1. AN ECONOMIC DEVELOMENT STRATEGY AN ECONOMIC DEVELOMENT STRATEGY FOR BLAINE COUNTY FOR BLAINE COUNTY PROGRESS REPORT PROGRESS REPORT October 2008 October 2008 TIP Strategies Alan Cox Meredith Whitten
- 2. TIP TIP | | agenda agenda • About us • About the process • Our framework • Data findings • SWOT • Discussion
- 4. TIP TIP | | what we do what we do TIP STRATEGIES INC is an economic development consulting firm based in Austin, Texas, USA. Our core strength is in strategic planning with special emphasis in these areas: 9Economic assessment & trend analysis 9Benchmarking & measurement 9Target industry & cluster analysis 9 Location & land-use analysis 9 Fiscal impact analysis
- 6. TIP TIP | | about the process about the process
- 7. Project timeline Project timeline JAN DEC NOV FEB OCT SEP AUG FINAL IMPLEMENTATION OPPORTUNITY DISCOVERY Data analysis, field work, site visits Finalize strategies, action items, budget, measures, etc. Vision, benchmarking, additional field work as needed Roll-out We are here
- 8. Activities to date Activities to date • Data collection – Demographics – Migration – Housing & income – Traffic & commuting – Economy & tax base – Workforce – Benchmarks • Interviews/focus group meetings
- 9. TIP TIP | | interviews & focus groups interviews & focus groups August: • City reps (Bellevue, Carey, Hailey, Ketchum, Sun Valley) • School district • 2 county commissioners • St. Luke’s hospital • Hailey Chamber • Workforce commission • 2 community-wide forums September: • Rocky Mt. Hardware • Power Engineers • Young professionals • Sun Valley Co. • Scott USA • WREP • Smith Optics • Realtors • Entrepreneurs • Agriculture October: • Housing groups • Land trusts • Youth group • 1 county commissioner • Tourism representatives • Sun Valley/Ketchum Chamber • Sun Valley biz owners and homeowners
- 10. TIP TIP | | next visit next visit • Upcoming communitywide workshop: – Charette format with break-out groups – Establish vision – Identify opportunities – Form task forces • November 18
- 11. TIP TIP | | our framework our framework
- 12. economic development (n) 1) the application of public resources to stimulate private investment TIP TIP | | definition definition
- 13. talent / innovation / place knowledge higher wages more jobs buildings 2010 2000 1990 1970 1980 e v o l u t i o n a r y s c a l e EC DEV EC DEV | | evolution of goals evolution of goals
- 14. The traditional ED model focuses on place-based industrial recruitment and job creation as a means to stimulate economic growth. Our model focuses on the factors that play essential roles in stimulating economic vitality in a community. Industry Sites Jobs Innovation & Capital Quality of Place Talent TIP TIP | | a new framework a new framework
- 15. TIP defined TIP defined TALENT • Individuals that posses the skills and values to make organizations more effective INNOVATION • The sectors and entities that leverage technology and advanced processes for design, manufacturing and services. PLACE • Viewing the assets of your community through the eyes of the talent you wish to attract and retain.
- 16. BLAINE CO. BLAINE CO. | | data findings data findings
- 17. 8% 7% 7% 7% 11% 14% 13% 8% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 6% 6% 5% 6% 6% 4% 4% 6% 8% 8% 9% 9% 8% 7% 16% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Age 0 to 4 Age 5 to 9 Age 10 to 14 Age 15 to 19 Age 20 to 24 Age 25 to 29 Age 30 to 34 Age 35 to 39 Age 40 to 44 Age 45 to 49 Age 50 to 54 Age 55 to 59 Age 60 to 64 Age 65 and greater 1980 2030 SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census (accessed via Moody's Analytics) ● Comparing Blaine County's age distribution in 1980 to the projected distribution in 2030 shows how the population is evolving. Our perspective in 2008 is near the mid-point of this 50-year period of change. ● The long-term changes are stark. All age cohorts over 40 rise as a share of the population while all age chorts under 35 decline. The long-term decline among young adults in their 20s and early 30s is particularly notable. BLAINE COUNTY RESIDENT POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY AGE, 1980 vs 2030
- 18. NET MIGRATION FLOWS TO/FROM BLAINE COUNTY BY TYPE In-State Out-of-State Foreign SOURCE: U.S. Internal Revenue Service (accessed via Moody's Analytics) −250 −200 −150 −100 −50 +0 +50 +100 +150 +200 +250 1997 2007 Net Inflow Net Outflow −250 −200 −150 −100 −50 +0 +50 +100 +150 +200 +250 1997 2007 −250 −200 −150 −100 −50 +0 +50 +100 +150 +200 +250 1997 2007 ● By digging deeper into the IRS data, we learn even more about Blaine County's migration patterns. Even though total net domestic migration flucturates back and forth from year to year, the net totals are much more consistent when separated into in-state and out-of- state of flows. ● The net migration patterns within Idaho tend to be consistently net outflows to other counties. Meanwhile, the net patterns with other states tend to be steady net inflows of new residents.
- 19. TOP 3 NET MIGRATION FLOW PATTERNS WITH BLAINE COUNTY Ada County, ID Twin Falls County, ID Lincoln County, ID NOTE: Complete data for Lincoln County, ID, unavailable prior to 1998 SOURCE: U.S. Internal Revenue Service (accessed via Moody's Analytics) −150 −125 −100 −75 −50 −25 +0 +25 +50 1990 2007 Net Inflow Net Outflow −150 −100 −50 +0 +50 1990 2007 −150 −100 −50 +0 +50 1990 2007 ● Blaine County has significant annual migration flow patterns with Ada, Twin Falls, and Lincoln counties in Idaho. In most years, the balance is a net outflow from Blaine to these three counties. The outflows to Ada County are particularly notable.
- 20. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000 1970 1980 1990 2000 Number of permanent households Number of housing units SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census (accessed via Moody's Analytics) BLAINE COUNTY HOUSEHOLDS vs. HOUSING STOCK ● Blaine County adds new housing units faster than it adds new households. This makes sense in a resort area. A large portion of new housing units would logically represent second homes rather than primary residences.
- 21. $0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 $700,000 $800,000 $900,000 $1,000,000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Median Sales Price for an Existing Single-Family Home Average Permitted Value of a Single-Family Home BLAINE COUNTY SINGLE-FAMILY SALES PRICES VERSUS NEW CONSTRUCTION VALUES ● Comparing averages and medians can be dangerous, especially in thinly populated areas with skewed incomes. With that caveat, however, such a comparison can still be a useful rule-of-thumb when considering the median sale price of an existing single-family home to actual local construction costs for a new single-family home. ● In many areas of the country where housing prices in recent years spun out of control, this type of sales price-to- construction cost comparison shows that median sale prices far exceed average construction values, thus indicating a potential price bubble. In Blaine County, we see the opposite. Recent construction costs have escalated well beyond median sales prices for existing single-family units. This hints at the rapidly rising affluence of new full and part-time residents who will occupy the newly constructed units. SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau; National Association of Realtors; Moody's Analytics
- 22. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000 16,000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Blaine County Jobs Employed Blaine County Residents SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Staitstics (household survey); U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (wage & salary employment by place of work), accessed via Moody's Analytics ● Comparing employment data from two separate collection processes can be problematic. However, in a place like Blaine County, it is important to understand the distinct differences between what labor economists call "household employment" and "establishment employment". This means counting jobs either by where people live or by where they work. ● By comparing the BEA's establishement-based wage and salary employment series to the BLS's household survey, we see a growing discrepancy. The number of jobs in Blaine County is greater than the number of employed residents and the gap appears to be widening over time. This underscores data in previous charts that showed a growing net volume of inbound commuters into the county. BLAINE COUNTY IMBALANCE: MORE JOBS THAN EMPLOYED RESIDENTS
- 23. BLAINE COUNTY INDUSTRIES Industry 2006 Employment Construction 3,506 Accommodation & food services 2,813 Retail trade 2,254 Real estate 2,238 Professional & technical services 1,695 Personal & other services 1,587 Administrative & waste services 1,478 Local government 1,215 Health care & social assistance 848 Arts, entertainment, & recreation 803 Finance & insurance 793 Manufacturing 572 Information 434 Wholesale trade 362 Farm 323 Educational services 283 Transportation & warehousing 239 Forestry & fishing 123 Federal government (civilian) 118 Mining 101 Federal government (military) 84 Corporate & regional headquarters 49 State government 40 Utilities 18 Total 21,976 SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (accessed via Moody's Analytics) ● Blaine County's industry employment reflects exactly what it is: a fast-growing county with a tourism based economy. ● High employment totals for construction and real estate indicate fast growth. In a less dynamic county, these job totals would be lower. ● Abundant numbers of jobs in accomodation and food services, retail trade, and personal services underscore the importance of tourism to the county.
- 24. BLAINE COUNTY INDUSTRIES Industry 2001-2006 Net Chg. 2006 Location Quotient Real estate +610 2.36 Construction +482 2.46 Retail trade +313 0.95 Personal & other services +296 1.27 Local government +245 0.70 Administrative & waste services +225 1.12 Professional & technical services +222 1.18 Finance & insurance +218 0.76 Arts, entertainment, & recreation +206 1.80 Accommodation & food services +192 1.91 Information +143 0.98 Educational services +94 0.62 Manufacturing +86 0.31 Wholesale trade +49 0.45 Federal government (civilian) +16 0.34 Health care & social assistance +12 0.39 Corporate & regional headquarters +9 0.21 Federal government (military) +5 0.33 Transportation & warehousing +5 0.34 Utilities +4 0.26 Forestry & fishing +2 0.98 State government -2 0.06 Farm -9 0.91 Mining -35 0.92 Total +3,388 1.00 SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (accessed via Moody's Analytics) above average (>1.25) average (0.75 to 1.25) below average (<0.75)
- 25. SWOT SWOT | | Initial thoughts Initial thoughts
- 26. BLAINE Co. | weaknesses BLAINE Co. | weaknesses TALENT • Difficulty in recruiting & retaining workers • Limited higher education INNOVATION • Lack of diversity in economy PLACE • Cost of living • Limited developable land • Accessibility/isolation ORGANIZATION • No cohesive economic development efforts (no dedicated organization) • Lack of countywide consensus
- 27. SHORT-TERM • National economy (effects on tourism, real estate, etc.) • Reduction in flight service (airlines struggling) • Continued loss of employers & young workers LONG-TERM • Aging population (workforce & tourists) • Instability in energy costs (effects on commuters & visitors) • Rental rates burdening local businesses • Increase in traffic BLAINE Co. | threats BLAINE Co. | threats
- 28. TALENT • Educated/skilled workforce • Entrepreneurial culture • Public schools above state avg. INNOVATION • Healthcare/hospital • Home-grown success stories (Scott, Power, Smith, Rocky Mountain) PLACE • Plentiful outdoor recreational opportunities • Other amenities (cultural, local retail) • Established destination/national name recognition BLAINE Co. | strengths BLAINE Co. | strengths
- 29. BLAINE Co. | opportunities BLAINE Co. | opportunities SHORT-TERM • Countywide economic development program • BRE program • Talent retention & recruitment campaign • Strengthening entrepreneurial efforts • Bus linkage between Blaine & Twin LONG-TERM • Airport relocation • Redevelopment of airport site • Other site-specific (redevelopment & greenfield) • International investment • Higher education? • Cluster development: – Diversify tourism options – Green/sustainability – Health/wellness – Research & development
- 31. 7000 N. MoPac, Ste. 305 Austin, TX 78731 512.343.9113 tel 512.343.9190 fax www.TIPstrategies.com alan@tipstrategies.com meredith@tipstrategies.com Thank you Thank you TIP Strategies, Inc.