Nathan Gonzales (Inside Elections) discusses the close margins of the upcoming 2022 elections at the NADO-DDAA Washington Conference.

1. 2022 Midterm
Election Outlook

2. Congress is on the Line
Majority in Both Chambers at Stake
Senate: Republicans need net gain of 1 seat for majority
House: Republicans need net gain of 5 seats for majority

3. Three Midterm Scenarios
1) Republicans Sweep Congress
2) GOP House / Senate Toss-up
3) Democratic Expansion

4. Fight for the Senate

5. Midterm Trend: Senate Races

6. Democratic Seats: 14
CO – Bennet
CT – Blumenthal
IL – Duckworth
VT – Open (Leahy)
WA - Murray
CA – Padilla
HI – Schatz
NY – Schumer
MD – Van Hollen
OR – Wyden
2022 Senate Races
Republican Seats: 21
L E A N D
NH - Hassan
S O L I D D L I K E LY D L E A N D T O S S U P L E A N R L I K E LY R S O L I D R
T I LT R
T I LT D
NV – Cortez Masto
AZ - Kelly
GA - Warnock
PA – Open (Toomey) MO – Open (Blunt)
AR – Boozman
ID – Crapo
IA – Grassley
ND – Hoeven
LA – Kennedy
OK – Lankford
OK – Open (Inhofe)
UT – Lee
KS – Moran
AK- Murkowski
KY - Paul
OH – Open (Portman)
SC – Scott
AL – Open (Shelby)
SD – Thune
IN - Young
NC – Open (Burr)
WI – Johnson
FL - Rubio

7. Fight for the House

8. Midterm Trend: House Races

9. Democrats
2022 House Races
REDISTRICTING
Republicans
L I K E LY D L E A N D T O S S U P L E A N R L I K E LY R
T I LT R
T I LT D
AZ 4 – Stanton
CA 13 – (Harder)
CA 47 – Porter
CA 49 – Levin
CO 7 – (Perlmutter)
CT 5 - Hayes
IL 6- Newman/Casten
NM 3 – Leger Fernandez
NV 1 – Titus
NV 4 – Horsford
NY 4 – (Rice)
NY 18 – Maloney
NY 19 – Delgado
NY 22 – (Katko)
OR 4 – DeFazio
OR 5 – Schrader
OR 6 – NEW
TX 28 -- Cuellar
CA 22 – Valadao
CA 27 – Garcia
CA 45 -- Steel
CO 8 – NEW
IA 3 – Axne
KS 3 - Davids
MI 3 -- Meijer
ME 2 – Golden
NJ 7 – Malinowski
NM 2 – Herrell
NY 11 - Malliotakis
VA 2 – Luria
WA 8 - Schrier
AZ 1 – Schweikert
AZ 2 – O’Halleran
MD 1 - Harris
NE 2 – Bacon
CA 3 – (McClintock)
CA 40 – Kim
CA 41 -- Calvert
CO 3 – Boebert
GA 6 – (McBath)
IA 1 – Miller-Meeks
IA 2 – Hinson
MT 1 – NEW
TN 5 – (Cooper)
IL13 – (R. Davis)
IL14 - Underwood
NV 3 – Lee
NY 1 – (Zeldin)
AZ 6 – (Kirkpatrick)
MI 10 – (Levin)
TX 15 – (V. Gonzalez)
IL17 – (Bustos)
MI 7 – Slotkin
MI 8 – Kildee
MN 2 - Craig
VA 7 – Spanberger

10. Redistricting Timeline
Census
Apportionment
Redistricting
Litigation

11. Reapportionment
Six States Gaining Districts
Texas +2 (from 36 to 38)
Florida +1 (from 27 to 28)
Colorado +1 (from 7 to 8)
Montana +1 (from 1 to 2)
North Carolina +1 (from 13 to 14)
Oregon +1 (from 5 to 6)
Seven States Losing a District
California -1 (from 53 to 52)
Illinois -1 (from 18 to 17)
Michigan -1 (from 14 to 13)
New York -1 (from 27 to 26)
Ohio -1 (from 16 to 15)
Pennsylvania -1 (from 18 to 17)
West Virginia -1 (from 3 to 2)

12. Fight for the Governors

13. Democratic Seats: 16
CA - Newsom
CO – Polis
CT – Lamont
HI – Open (Ige)
IL – Pritzker
MN – Walz
NY – Hochul
RI – McKee
2022 Governors Races
Republican Seats: 20
L E A N D
FL – DeSantis
NH – Sununu
AL – Ivey
AK – Dunleavy
AR – Open
(Hutchinson)
ID – Little
IA – Reynolds
NE – Open
(Ricketts)
OH – DeWine
OK – Stitt
SC – McMaster
SD – Noem
TN – Lee
TX – Abbott
VT – Scott
WY - Gordon
NM – Lujan
Grisham
OR – Open
(Brown)
AZ – (Ducey)
KS – Kelly
WI - Evers
GA – Kemp
S O L I D D L I K E LY D L E A N D T O S S U P L E A N R L I K E LY R S O L I D R
T I LT R
T I LT D
MA – Open
(Baker)
MD – Open
(Hogan)
ME – Mills
MI – Whitmer
NV – Sisolak
PA – Open (Wolf)

14. For more information contact:
nathan@insideelections.com
InsideElections.com| @InsideElections