Vehicle Technology Improvement Curve

Slide 1: Vehicle Technology Improvement Curve Marcus Bowman IAC Transportation June 2008

Slide 2: How Much Does the Average Car Pollute? Average Vehicle Emissions 1970-2005 1970: the average U.S. car emissions were 8.12 tons of CO2e per year 2005: average U.S. car emissions were 5.35 tons of CO2e per year Emissions of Average Vehicle on the Road (1970-2005) 34% decline despite rising mix of SUV’s (SUV’s, pick-ups, and vans are now 50% of U.S. sales and were less than 20% of U.S. sales prior to 1980) EPA Chart 06.04.08 IAC Transportation Marcus Bowman

Slide 3: How Much Does the Average Car Pollute? New Cars and All Cars Emissions: Average New Cars and Average for all Vehicles The orange line is emissions of the average new vehicles. The blue line is average per vehicle emissions of all vehicles on the road. This chart demonstrates how quickly technology has an impact; and also shows how there is a lag time until all vehicles in the fleet reflect it. 06.04.08 IAC Transportation Marcus Bowman

Slide 4: Emissions from Vehicles Forecasted to 2050 What Happens with another CAFE? Forecasting future emissions: To forecast vehicle emissions to 2050 How can we achieve a 60% reduction in total vehicle emissions? The next slide shows that technology, realized via a “CAFE III” will reduce emissions to achieve a 60% reduction from current TOTAL emissions by 2050. What is “CAFE III”? To reach a 60% reduction by 2050, CAFE III would be implemented from 2033-2050. 06.04.08 IAC Transportation Marcus Bowman

Slide 5: U.S. Fleet of Vehicles (1970 – 2055) Per Vehicle Emissions Rates Forecasting per-vehicle emissions rates. Tons of CO2 Emissions per Vehicle per Year “CAFE II” (already U.S. law) begins 2020. Fleet rollover within about 12 years. “CAFE III” begin in 2032– 18 years of improvement to achieve 60% reduction by 2050. 06.04.08 IAC Transportation Marcus Bowman

Slide 6: U.S. Fleet of Vehicles (1970 – 2055) Per Vehicle Emissions Rates Logarithmic scale “CAFE II” (already Tons of CO2 Emissions per Vehicle per Year U.S. law) begins 2020. Fleet rollover within about 12 years. “CAFE III” begin in 2032– 18 years of improvement to achieve 60% reduction by 2050. 60% reduction by 2050 06.04.08 IAC Transportation Marcus Bowman

Slide 7: U.S. Fleet of Vehicles (1970 – 2055) Per Vehicle Emissions Rates Flipping the chart around Vehicles Drive Further Miles Driven Per 1 Ton CO2e Emissions on 1 Ton of Emissions By 2032, vehicles will drive 3,792 miles per 1 ton CO2e. By 2050, vehicles will drive 7,336 miles. The red dot is a Toyota Prius. This graph illustrates that a Prius driver really is, technologically, ahead of their time. 06.04.08 IAC Transportation Marcus Bowman

Slide 8: U.S. Fleet of Vehicles (1970 – 2055) Per Vehicle Emissions Rates Seeing the Progress The “Vehicle Miles Driven Per 1 Ton CO2e Emissions Technology Improvement Curve” Given where we are ALREADY (Toyota Prius), is reason to be extremely optimistic that TECHNOLOGY will rapidly solve our environment concerns and continue to keep our air clean 06.04.08 IAC Transportation Marcus Bowman

Slide 9: Vehicles of the Future 21st Century Future Vehicles Technology solves problems TOO CONSERVATIVE? These forecasts– to a 60% reduction in total U.S. vehicle emissions by 2050– may prove to be far too conservative. At the least, the list below can help to understand why baseline emissions are heading a lot lower in the future. Revolutionary New Trends Examples Hybrid Cars Toyota Prius and Ford Escape Hybrid Fuel revolution (Ethanol/Biofuel) Flex-Fuel Vehicles (FFV’s) Natural Gas and Diesel Vehicles Honda/Phill and Mercedes-Benz CDI Hydrogen Fuel Cell Cars Honda FCX Clarity Electric Cars Chevrolet Volt Conceptual Cars The Alé (Fuel Vapor Technologies) and the “Air Car” 06.04.08 IAC Transportation Marcus Bowman