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Lutz Finger

Ask Measure Learn

Last update: March 3, 2014
The philosophy of the day is

data-ism.
—DAVID BROOKS (@NYTDAVIDBROOKS)
Who
• 
• 
• 
• 

am I

Lutz Finger
Director Data Analytics at LinkedIn
Author of Ask Measure Learn
Co-Founder Fisheye Analytics
(sold to WPP)

@LutzFinger
LutzFinger.com
linkedin.com/in/lutzfinger

?
Ask Measure Learn
Ask Measure Learn
Who are

you?
Mario Vinasco
Earliest Adopter

Rahul Todkar
Most Popular

Bruno Aziza
Most Connected

Ron Goncalves,
MBA, PMP,
Most Endorsed
Ask Measure Learn
Ask Measure Learn
Ask Measure Learn
Ask Measure Learn
Actionable Insights?
Intellectually enriching – at most
We focus too much on technology
Google Search on the term “Big Data”

ENGINEERS

DATA SCIENTISTS
ASK the right Questions.
MEASURE the right data –
even if it is not Big data.
Take Actions and
from them.

LEARN

?
ASK

Ask the right

Question
ASK
THE HARDEST PART
ASK
Let’s do “Social Media”
ASK
Source: IBM Institute for Business Value.
•  Opinion leaders (Katz 1955)
•  Influentials (Merton 1968)
•  Law of the Few (Gladwell 2000)

Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media

ASK

Please find an “INFLUENCER”
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media

ASK

A few person decide what we do…
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media

ASK

REALLY?
ASK
Dear Marketers,
There is

no influencer. It’s a myth.
ASK

Reality 50% is Homophily

• 
• 
• 
• 

4 years
1001 Students on Facebook
traditional Self-reported Data
How did taste Spread

Source: Kevin Lewisa, Marco Gonzaleza and Jason Kaufman (2012): PNAS Vol 109, no 1

Influence is often overestimated. It needs:
§  Reach
§  Readiness
§  Topic Dependence
ASK

Aja Dior M.?
AP News?
ASK

Aja Dior M.?
AP News?
Aja Dior M.
omgg, my aunt tiffany who work for
whitney houston just found whitney
houston dead in the tub. such ashamed
& sad :(

45 min
ASK
I want to create “REACH”
… in order to “SELL”
MEASURE

Measure the
right Data
•  Click Rates – Media
•  Low CPO advertisers
•  Etc..

MEASURE

The world is full of WRONG metrics
Measure
MEASURE

What is RIGHT?

Source: WIkipedia

30
Big Data

MEASURE

even if it is not
Social
Data

Behavioral
Data

Identity
Data

Data Volume

MEASURE

Analytical Challenge &
Complexity

277+ Million Members = a lot of Data
MEASURE
More Data

does not equal

More Insights
MEASURE

We want small data….

Data ELT and
Aggregation

Web API

Reach
Analytics
Portal

or

No Reach

1

Petabyte

2

Terabyte

3

Gigabyte

4

Bit
MEASURE

Calculating Reach via Network Data

1977: Linton C. Freeman, “Centrality based
on Betweenness .”
“SELL”
needs purchase intend

MEASURE

“REACH”
creates awareness
MEASURE
Correlations are

important
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media

MEASURE

What is your behavior?
MEASURE

The issue with the Correlation / Causation
MEASURE
Sometimes data is

not easy

to get.
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media

MEASURE

Social Behavior is ‘unstructured’
New York Weather in April 2013

Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media

MEASURE

It is way easier to work with ‘structured data’
MEASURE
MEASURE
Source: Jeffrey Breen

43
MEASURE

What is RIGHT?

Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media

44
LEARN

Right Actions
and learn from
them.
2
Connections
4%

4
Connections
3%

1
Connection
28%

0
Connections
59%

LEARN

Information vs. Action…
LEARN

Information vs. Action…
4
Connections
2
3%
Connections
4%

1
Connection
28%

0
Connections
59%

47
LEARN

Three Types of actionable Insights

Benchmark

Predictions

Recommendations &
Filter
LEARN
BENCHMARK
LEARN

Competitive Benchmark

Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media

50
LEARN
RECOMMEND & FILTER
People You May Know
Groups You May Like
Ads You Be Interested in
Companies you May Want to Follow
Similar Profiles
Puls

LEARN

LinkedIn Recommendation Products
More than
50% of
connections

LEARN

Recommendations Impact

More than
50% of
group joins

More than
50% job
applications
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media

LEARN

Filter
LEARN
PREDICTIONS
LEARN

Predicting the OSCAR 2013
LEARN

Predicting the OSCAR
Possible other Features:
CROWDSOURCED:
•  Box Office Results
•  Movie Goer Reviews
•  Critics
OTHER “Hard Facts”
•  Genre
•  Payment of Actors
•  Etc.

Source: Farsite

LEARN

Predicting the OSCAR
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media

LEARN

Predicting Box Office
LEARN
Predictions are not easy,
especially if they are about the Future
Behavioral Score = 0.5
Identity Score = 0.3
Emily

Score = 0.9

Social Score = 0.1

Behavioral Score = 0.2
Identity Score = 0.3
Steve

Score = 0.9

... With premium
account, you get
more search
results and access
to …

Social Score = 0.4

... Do you know 5
of you connections
have started to use
premium account
…

LEARN

Propensity to Email Marketing
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media

LEARN

Which Model to use
Google’s Prediction API

LEARN

Which Model to use
Benchmark

Recommendation & Filter

Predict

LEARN

Many more examples…
LEARN
Data Wrangling & Data Science is getting Easier
LEARN

Training

Update
Summary
ASK the right Questions.
Forget Big Data but
MEASURE the right
data.
Take Actions and
from them.

LEARN

?
We are hiring!

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