The document discusses Turkey's relationship with Armenia based on economic data and public opinion surveys. It finds that while Turkey makes up a small percentage of Armenia's imports and exports, attitudes toward economic cooperation with Turkey are more positive than political cooperation. Survey data shows Armenians view Turks more negatively than other groups, but attitudes vary by income and education level, with higher income and education associated with more positive views of Turks. Opinions on resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict also remain polarized between Armenians and Azerbaijanis.

1. How
Turkey
is
Perceived
in
Armenia:
Some
findings
from
the
Caucasus
Barometer
Surveys
June
4th,
2012
Yerevan
heghine@crrc.am

2. Outline
• Armenia-­‐Turkey:
General
Overview
and
Economic
relaDons
• Some
findings
from
the
CB
surveys:
– AKtudes
towards
Armenia-­‐Turkey
relaDons
– AKtudes
in
Armenia
and
Azerbaijan
towards
soluDon
of
NK
conflict
• Some
findings
from
the
TESEV
survey

3. Armenia
and
Turkey
Comparison
Armenia
Turkey
• Area
29,743
sq
km
• Area
780,580sq
km
• PopulaDon
3.2
mln*
• PopulaDon
74.7
mln*
• GDP(2011)
10.1
bln
• GDP(2011)
US$
772.3
billion
• GDP
p/c
3,100
US$
• GDP
p/c
(2011)
US$
10,444
*As
of
Oct
2011
vs.
3.5
mln
in
1914
*
As
of
Jan
2012
vs.
13.6mln
in
1927

4. Current
Access
to
Turkey
from
Armenia
Source: Beilock, et al, 2007, AJPP

5. Foreign
Trade
(Exp
&
Imp)
Between
Turkey
and
South
Caucasus
Countries:
Armenia
trading
trough
Georgia?
1400 60.4
1200
Armenia Georgia Azerbaijan 572
40.2
1000
37.9
800 503
45.9 59.8 429
42
600 34.8
39.6
240 255 41.3
12.3 287
271 241
400 207
4.9 142
118
200 93
18 57
0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
*Calculations were made to comment the paper “Exploring Complementarities …” presented by Prof. Sema Kalaycioglu in
AIPRG conference in January 2007.

6. Official
StaDsDcs
on
Trade:
Share
of
Turkey
in
Armenia’s
Export
and
Import
(%
of
total)
6.3
6.2
6.1
5.3
5
Imports
Exports
4.5
4.3
4.4
3.9
4.0
3.8
3.3
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.0
1.3
0.9
0.7
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source:
NSS
of
RA
(hkp://armstat.am/file/arDcle/l_2nish_10_2.pdf)

7. Caucasus
Barometer:
Methodology
• Almost
2,000
people
in
Armenia,
Georgia
and
Azerbaijan
(per
country)
starDng
from
2004
• RepresentaDve
of
total
adult
(18+)
populaDon
• ProporDonate
representaDon
of
demographic
and
geographic
groups
• MulD-­‐stage
cluster
sampling
• Household
selecDon:
Random
walk
method
• Respondent
selecDon:
Kish
table
• Face-­‐to-­‐face
interviews
in
local
languages

8. Caucasus
Barometer
2006:
APtudes
on
cooperation
in
poliQcal
sphere
with
Turkey
(%
of
total)
35.1 DK & Refuse
SC 15.6
15.9
Fully supportive
30.0
Georgia 19.3
21.9
Rather supportive
40.7
Azerbaijan 10.9 Neutral
9.5
30.4 Rather oppose
Armenia 28.5
21.7
Fully oppose

9. Caucasus
Barometer
2006:
APtudes
on
cooperation
in
economic
sphere
with
Turkey
DK &
43.5 Refuse
SC 20.2
16.2
Fully
supportive
33.5
Georgia 20.6
19.5 Rather
supportive
Neutral
59.4
Azerbaijan 19.1
10.9
Rather
oppose
28.6
Armenia 24.1
21.7 Fully
oppose

10. CB
2009-­‐2010:
APtudes
towards
doing
business
with
Turks
2009-­‐2010
(%
of
total)

12. Would
you
approve
or
disapprove
doing
business
with...
(%,
CB
2011,
weighted)
Approve
Disapprove
Armenians
93
5
Russians
86
11
Americans
73
22
English
72
24
Greeks
68
26
Georgians
66
30
Jews
60
34
Kurds,
Yezidis
56
40
Turks
40
57
Azerbaijanis
32
64

19. CB
2010:
PopulaQon
of
Turkey’s
general
aPtude
towards
Armenians?
Mean
value
on
a
scale
from
1
(completely
negaQve)
to
5
(completely
posiQve),
by
household
Income
More
than
USD
1200
2.3
USD
801
-­‐
1200
2.6
USD
401
-­‐
800
2.2
USD
251
-­‐
400
2.0
USD
101
-­‐
250
1.9
USD
51
-­‐
100
1.8
Up
to
USD
50
2.0
0
1.8
Country
Average
2.0

20. CB
2010:
PopulaQon
of
Turkey’s
general
aPtude
towards
Armenians?
Mean
value
on
a
scale
from
1
(completely
negaQve)
to
5
(completely
posiQve)
by
EducaQon
Post-­‐graduate
degree
2.5
Completed
higher
educaQon
2.2
Incomplete
higher
educaQon
2.1
Secondary
technical
educaQon
2.0
Completed
secondary
educaQon
1.9
Incomplete
secondary
educaQon
1.7
Primary
educaQon
1.7
No
primary
educaQon
1.7
Country
Average
2.0

21. А
recent
touchstone:
Nagorny
Karabakh
AKtudes
in
Armenia
and
Azerbaijan
regarding
soluDon
of
NK
conflict
from
the
2011
Caucasus
Barometer.

22. Polarized
beliefs
on
sedlement
of
conflicts:
Ideas
for
sedling
the
Nagorny
Karabakh
conflict
-­‐
AZERBAIJAN
(CB
2011,
%)
Definitely
favor
Accept
under
certain
circumstances
Never
accept
DK
Have
Nagorny
Karabakh
in
Azerbaijan
without
4
4
autonomy
Have
Nagorny
Karabakh
with
a
high
degree
of
autonomy
27
40
8
within
Azerbaijan
Create
a
special
administraQve
region
that
will
be
jointly
5
84
9
governed
by
Azerbaijan
and
Armenia
Have
Nagorny
Karabakh
as
an
independent
country
7
81
8
Have
Nagorny
Karabakh
as
a
formal
part
of
Armenia
94
4

23. Polarized
beliefs
on
sedlement
of
conflicts:
Ideas
for
sedling
the
Nagorny
Karabakh
conflict
-­‐
ARMENIA
(CB
2011,
%)
Definitely
favor
Accept
under
certain
circumstances
Never
accept
DK
RA
Have
Nagorny
Karabakh
as
a
formal
part
of
Armenia
18
13
8
Have
Nagorny
Karabakh
as
an
independent
country
20
15
9
Create
a
special
administraQve
region
that
will
be
4
77
17
jointly
governed
by
Azerbaijan
and
Armenia
Have
Nagorny
Karabakh
with
a
high
degree
of
3
77
17
autonomy
within
Azerbaijan
Have
Nagorny
Karabakh
in
Azerbaijan
without
2
74
18
autonomy

24. Ethnic
intolerance:
Approval
of
doing
business
with…(CB-­‐2011,
%)
Approve
Disapprove
Don't
know
Refuse
to
answer
Azerbaijanis
64
3
Armenia
Georgians
30
4
Armenians
99
1
Azerbaijan
Georgians
37
2
Azerbaijanis
21
7
Georgia
Armenians
26
7

25. APtudes
in
Turkey:
Findings
from
a
survey
by
Turkish
Economic
and
Social
Studies
FoundaQon
(TESEV)

26. TESEV
Survey
Overview
• Survey
focused
on
opinions
on
various
Turkish
foreign
policy
issues,
not
just
Armenia.
• The
fieldwork
for
the
project
was
carried
out
on
6-­‐14th
December
2010.
• 1906
households
were
successfully
contacted,
with
906
of
them
refusing
to
answer
the
quesDonnaire.
•
The
survey
has
a
+/-­‐2.54%
margin
of
error
with
a
confidence
level
of
95%.
• Link
to
report:
hkp://www.tesev.org.tr/Upload/PublicaDon/
d40ab847-­‐5676-­‐4864-­‐8f99-­‐37fcb58ffc34/Foreign%20Policy%20PercepDons%20in%20Turkey_05.2011.pdf

29. Foreign
Policy
PercepDon
in
Turkey
|
KA
Research
Limited
|
December
2010
Reasons
for
supporDng
economic
rapprochement
with
Armenia
Q44a.
Could
you
tell
me
why
you
support
the
economic
rapprochement
between
Turkey
and
Armenia?
Good
for
Turkish
economy
39
To
resolve
the
conflict
17
Turkey
and
Armenia
are
neighboring
countries
14
Good
for
both
countries'
economies
7
People
living
in
Turkey
and
in
Armenia
have
a
common
past
2
So
the
two
countries
support
each
other
2
Would
be
good
for
the
economy
of
Armenia
2
Would
help
to
reduce
unemployment
1
Since
there
are
many
Armenians
living
in
Turkey
1
Other
9
DK/Refused
14
Base:
492
(Respondents
who
“strongly/somewhat
support”
economical
rapprochement
with
Armenia)
p.29

30. Foreign
Policy
PercepDon
in
Turkey
|
KA
Research
Limited
|
December
2010
Reasons
for
opposing
economic
rapprochement
with
Armenia
Q43a.
Could
you
tell
me
why
you
do
not
support
the
economic
rapprochement
between
Turkey
and
Armenia?
Armenians
are
hosQle
to
Turks
21
Armenia
is
a
small
economy,
would
provide
no
benefit
13
Past
betrayal
8
Because
of
Azerbaijan
problem
8
I
do
not
trust
Armenia
6
Genocide
allegaQons
4
I
do
not
like
Armenians,
I
do
not
want
any
kind
of
3
Territorial
demands
2
Since
Armenians
think
only
of
their
own
benefits
2
Since
it
may
harm
Turkey
1
Because
of
the
past
1
Religion
1
Other
14
DK/Refused
20
Base:
381
(Respondents
who
“strongly/somewhat
oppose”
to
economical
rapprochement
with
Armenia)
p.30

31.
THANK
YOU!