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The Future of the Offshore Drilling Industry to 2015 -
   Market Analysis, Capital Spend and Competitive Landscape
 Reference Code: GBIGE00026MR                                                                               Publication Date: February 2010
                                        Global offshore drilling market has experienced a slowdown in 2009 following the hectic activity
  The global drilling                   witnessed in the previous years. The growth of the offshore drilling market is being driven by high
  expenditure is forecast to            demand and the prices of crude oil and natural gas. The increase in the demand for oil and natural
  grow at an annual                     gas due to the high economic growth during the period from 2004 to 2008 was responsible for the
  average growth rate of                continuous increase of crude oil and natural gas prices until mid 2008. The demand for oil and gas
  about XX% in the forecast             and the sustained high prices stimulated increased activity in the offshore drilling market.
  period of 2009 to 2015
                                        However, since the economic slowdown and the collapse of the oil and gas prices from record
                                        levels of 2008, many of the offshore projects have become uneconomical and have since been
                                        delayed or cancelled. This is because the offshore drilling expenditure is directly dependent on the
                                        exploration and production capital spending of the international oil companies, national oil
                                        companies and independent producers. The tight credit situation and an uncertain outlook for the
                                        oil and gas global demand have affected the capital expenditure plans of the exploration and
                                        production companies. These factors had a negative effect on the offshore drilling spend in 2009.
                                        However, future outlook for offshore drilling is encouraging and the expenditure is expected to
                                        steadily increase to 2015.
                                        Global Offshore Drilling Expenditure Is Expected To Grow To More Than $XX Billion in The
                                        Period From 2009 To 2015
                                        The global offshore drilling expenditure has increased in recent years especially during the period
                                        from 2004 to 2008. According to GBI Research’s estimates, approximately $XX billion was spent
                                        on offshore drilling from 2000 to 2008. The regions accounting for the major share of the spending
                                        were the US Gulf of Mexico (USGOM), West Africa, Brazil and Asia Pacific. The offshore drilling
                                        expenditure peaked in 2007- 2008.
                                        The global drilling expenditure is forecast to grow at an annual average growth rate of about XX%
                                        in the forecast period of 2009 to 2015. The depletion of the reserves in onshore and shallow waters
                                        and the advancement in seismic and drilling technologies are driving the increased drilling activities
                                        in deepwater offshore regions. This trend is most visible in the offshore areas of the USGOM, Brazil
                                        and West Africa. The discovery of deep water and subsalt reserves is expected to drive
                                        investments in the sector.
                                        As a result of the increasing demand and the decline of the reserves of crude oil and natural gas,
                                        the prices of crude oil and natural gas are expected to continue to rise. However, factors such as
                                        decreases in service costs as the offshore regions mature, and advances in technology leading to
                                        increased efficiency and a reduction in extraction costs, will combine to reduce the total E&P
                                        investments. Nonetheless, the positive factors leading to increases in investments are likely to
                                        outweigh the negative factors, thereby significantly increasing the offshore drilling expenditure in
                                        the future.




The Future of the Offshore Drilling Industry to 2015 - Market                                              GBIGE00026MR /Published FEB 2010
Analysis, Capital Spend and Competitive Landscape
                                                                                                                                          Page 1
                                                                           © GBI Research. This is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
1         Table of Contents
                                        1      Table of Contents .................................................................................................................... 6
                                            1.1      List of Tables.................................................................................................................. 8
                                            1.2      List of Figures................................................................................................................. 9
                                        2      The Future of the Offshore Drilling Industry to 2015 .............................................................. 10
                                            2.1      Report Guidance .......................................................................................................... 10
                                        3      Introduction To The Offshore Drilling Industry ....................................................................... 12
                                            3.1      Importance of Offshore Oil and Gas Production and Major Offshore Areas................. 13
                                            3.2      Offshore Drilling Industry Structure and the Process of Offshore Drilling ..................... 14
                                            3.3      Types of Rigs and Support Services ............................................................................ 14
                                               3.3.1     Mobile Bottom Supported Rigs................................................................................ 15
                                               3.3.2     Floating Rigs ........................................................................................................... 15
                                               3.3.3     Key Technologies Used As Supporting Mechanisms in Floating Rigs .................... 15
                                               3.3.4     Subsea Production and Processing Systems.......................................................... 16
                                        4      Key Trends And Challenges In The Offshore Drilling Industry............................................... 17
                                            4.1      Key Drivers of the Offshore Drilling Industry ................................................................ 17
                                               4.1.1     Growth In Oil And Gas Demand In The Long Term And The Increase In The
                                                         Offshore Oil And Gas Production are Driving The Growth Of The Offshore Drilling
                                                         Industry.................................................................................................................... 17
                                               4.1.2     The Shift in Investment to New and Emerging Offshore Regions such as Asia and
                                                         Brazil is Driving the Growth of Offshore Drilling on these Regions .......................... 17
                                               4.1.3     Increasing Trend towards Deep and Ultra Deep Water Exploration and Production is
                                                         Driving the Growth of the Offshore Drilling Industry................................................. 17
                                               4.1.4     Rapid Technology Advances are a Key Driver of the Development of the Offshore
                                                         Drilling Industry........................................................................................................ 18
                                            4.2      Major Challenges in The Offshore Drilling Industry ...................................................... 19
                                               4.2.1     Global Economic Slowdown and Low Commodity Prices are a Challenge for the
                                                         Growth of the Offshore Drilling Industry in the Short Term ...................................... 19
                                               4.2.2     Decreases in Exploration and Production Capital Expenditure is a Major Challenge
                                                         for the Offshore Drilling Contractors ........................................................................ 20
                                               4.2.3     Geopolitical Risks and Terrorist Threats Might Have a Major Impact on the Offshore
                                                         Drilling Activities In Particular Countries .................................................................. 21
                                               4.2.4     Highly Competitive Drilling Industry with Intense Price Competition in Addition to the
                                                         Decrease in the Drilling Activity will be a Major Challenge ...................................... 22
                                            4.3      Offshore Drilling Units Planned and Under Construction ............................................. 22
                                            4.4      Mergers and Acquisitions in the Global Offshore Drilling Industry................................ 27
                                        5      Global Offshore Drilling Expenditure Forecasts To 2015 ....................................................... 29
                                            5.1      Global Offshore Drilling Expenditure Forecasts To 2015 ............................................. 29
                                            5.2      Global Exploratory and Development Drilling Expenditure........................................... 31
                                            5.3      Competitive Analysis of the Offshore Drilling Industry, 2009........................................ 34
                                               5.3.1     Competitive Structure .............................................................................................. 34
                                               5.3.2     Market Share Analysis of the Global Offshore Drilling Industry, 2009 ..................... 34
                                            5.4      Profiles of the Major Offshore Drilling Contractors ....................................................... 35
                                               5.4.1     Transocean Ltd. ...................................................................................................... 35
                                               5.4.2     Noble Corporation ................................................................................................... 36
                                               5.4.3     Diamond Offshore Drilling ....................................................................................... 37
                                               5.4.4     Ensco International.................................................................................................. 37
                                               5.4.5     Seadrill .................................................................................................................... 38
                                        6      North America Offshore Drilling Expenditure Forecasts To 2015 .......................................... 40
                                            6.1      North America Drilling Expenditure Forecasts To 2015 ............................................... 40
                                            6.2      North America Exploratory Drilling Expenditure ........................................................... 41
                                            6.3      North America Development Drilling Expenditure ........................................................ 42
                                            6.4      Major Offshore Oil and Gas Projects In North America ................................................ 44
                                            6.5      Exploration and Production Companies’ Offshore Activity in North America................ 44
                                               6.5.1     North America, Top Lease Holders In 2009 ............................................................ 44


The Future of the Offshore Drilling Industry to 2015 - Market                                                                         GBIGE00026MR /Published FEB 2010
Analysis, Capital Spend and Competitive Landscape
                                                                                                                                                                               Page 6
                                                                                          © GBI Research. This is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
7     South And Central America Offshore Drilling Expenditure Forecasts To 2015 ...................... 46
                                           7.1      South and Central America Drilling Expenditure Forecasts To 2015 ........................... 46
                                           7.2      South and Central America Exploratory Drilling Expenditure ....................................... 47
                                           7.3      South and Central America Development Drilling Expenditure .................................... 49
                                           7.4      Major Offshore Oil and Gas Projects in South and Central America ............................ 50
                                           7.5      Offshore Activity of the Exploration and Production Companies in South and Central
                                                    America ........................................................................................................................51
                                              7.5.1    South and Central America, Top Lease Holders In 2009 ........................................ 51
                                        8     Europe Offshore Drilling Expenditure Forecasts To 2015...................................................... 54
                                           8.1      Europe Drilling Expenditure Forecasts To 2015........................................................... 54
                                           8.2      Europe Exploratory Drilling Expenditure....................................................................... 55
                                           8.3      Europe Development Drilling Expenditure.................................................................... 57
                                           8.4      Major Offshore Oil and Gas Projects in Europe ........................................................... 58
                                           8.5      Offshore Activity of Exploration and Production Companies in Europe ........................ 59
                                              8.5.1    Europe, Top Lease Holders in 2009 ........................................................................ 59
                                        9     Middle East And Africa Offshore Drilling Expenditure Forecasts To 2015 ............................. 62
                                           9.1      The Middle East and Africa Drilling Expenditure Forecasts to 2015............................. 62
                                           9.2      The Middle East and Africa Exploratory Drilling Expenditure ....................................... 63
                                           9.3      The Middle East and Africa Development Drilling Expenditure .................................... 65
                                           9.4      Major Offshore Oil and Gas Projects in the Middle East and Africa ............................. 66
                                           9.5      Offshore Exploration and Production Activity in the Middle East And Africa ................ 68
                                              9.5.1    Middle East and Africa, Top Lease Holders in 2009................................................ 68
                                        10    Asia Pacific Offshore Drilling Expenditure Forecasts To 2015............................................... 70
                                           10.1     Asia Pacific Drilling Expenditure Forecasts To 2015.................................................... 70
                                           10.2     Asia Pacific Exploratory Drilling Expenditure................................................................ 72
                                           10.3     Asia Pacific Development Drilling Expenditure............................................................. 73
                                           10.4     Major Offshore Oil and Gas Projects in Asia Pacific .................................................... 74
                                           10.5     Offshore Exploration and Production Activity in Asia Pacific ........................................ 75
                                              10.5.1       Asia Pacific, Top Lease Holders in 2009 ............................................................ 75
                                        11    Appendix................................................................................................................................ 78
                                           11.1     Methodology................................................................................................................. 78
                                              11.1.1       Coverage ............................................................................................................ 78
                                              11.1.2       Secondary Research .......................................................................................... 79
                                              11.1.3       Primary Research ............................................................................................... 79
                                              11.1.4       Expert Panel Validation ...................................................................................... 79
                                           11.2     Units of Measure .......................................................................................................... 79
                                           11.3     Contact Us ................................................................................................................... 80
                                           11.4     About GBI Research .................................................................................................... 80
                                           11.5     Disclaimer .................................................................................................................... 80




The Future of the Offshore Drilling Industry to 2015 - Market                                                                         GBIGE00026MR /Published FEB 2010
Analysis, Capital Spend and Competitive Landscape
                                                                                                                                                                               Page 7
                                                                                          © GBI Research. This is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
1.1     List of Tables
                                        Table 1:      Global, Oil & Gas Spending ($ Bn), 2005-2009............................................................ 21
                                        Table 2:      Global, Semi-Submersibles Under Construction to 2012 ............................................. 23
                                        Table 3:      Global, Drillships Under Construction to 2012 ............................................................. 24
                                        Table 4:      Global, Jackup Rigs Under Construction to 2012......................................................... 26
                                        Table 5:      Merger & Acquisitions and Asset Transaction Activity in the Offshore Drilling Industry
                                                      ($ M), 2007 – 2009....................................................................................................... 28
                                        Table 6:      Global, Offshore Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 ............................................. 30
                                        Table 7:      Global, Offshore Exploratory Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 .......................... 32
                                        Table 8:      Global, Offshore Developmental Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 .................... 33
                                        Table 9:      Global Offshore Drilling Industry, Competitive Analysis, 2009 ..................................... 35
                                        Table 10:     Transocean Ltd., Key Statistics, 2008.......................................................................... 36
                                        Table 11:     Noble Corporation, Key Statistics, 2008....................................................................... 37
                                        Table 12:     Diamond Offshore Drilling., Key Statistics, 2008.......................................................... 37
                                        Table 13:     Ensco International. Key Statistics, 2008 ..................................................................... 38
                                        Table 14:     Seadrill Limited. Key Statistics, 2008 ........................................................................... 38
                                        Table 15:     North America, Offshore Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015................................. 41
                                        Table 16:     North America, Offshore Exploratory Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015.............. 42
                                        Table 17:     North America, Offshore Development Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015........... 43
                                        Table 18:     North America, Major Offshore Oil and Gas Projects, 2010-2015................................ 44
                                        Table 19:     North America, Top Offshore Lease Holders, 2009 ..................................................... 45
                                        Table 20:     South and Central America Offshore Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015.............. 47
                                        Table 21:     South and Central America Offshore Exploratory Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn),
                                                      2000-2015 .................................................................................................................... 48
                                        Table 22:     South and Central America Offshore Development Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn),
                                                      2000-2015 .................................................................................................................... 50
                                        Table 23:     South and Central America, Major Offshore Oil and Gas Projects, 2010-2015............ 51
                                        Table 24:     South and Central America, Top Offshore Lease Holders, 2009 ................................. 53
                                        Table 25:     Europe Offshore Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 ............................................. 55
                                        Table 26:     Europe Offshore Exploratory Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 .......................... 56
                                        Table 27:     Europe Offshore Development Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 ....................... 58
                                        Table 28:     Europe, Major Offshore Oil and Gas Projects, 2010-2015 ........................................... 59
                                        Table 29:     Europe, Top Offshore Lease Holders, 2009................................................................. 61
                                        Table 30:     Middle East and Africa Offshore Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015..................... 63
                                        Table 31:     Middle East and Africa Offshore Exploratory Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015.. 64
                                        Table 32:     Middle East and Africa, Offshore Development Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015..
                                                        ................................................................................................................................... 66
                                        Table 33:     Middle East and Africa, Major Offshore Oil and Gas Projects, 2010-2015................... 67
                                        Table 34:     Middle East and Africa, Top Offshore Lease Holders, 2009 ........................................ 69
                                        Table 35:     Asia Pacific Offshore Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 ...................................... 71
                                        Table 36:     Asia Pacific Offshore Exploratory Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 ................... 73
                                        Table 37:     Asia Pacific Offshore Development Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 ................ 74
                                        Table 38:     Major Offshore Oil and Gas Projects in Asia Pacific, 2010-2015 ................................. 75
                                        Table 39:     Asia Pacific Top Offshore Lease Holders, 2009........................................................... 77




The Future of the Offshore Drilling Industry to 2015 - Market                                                                          GBIGE00026MR /Published FEB 2010
Analysis, Capital Spend and Competitive Landscape
                                                                                                                                                                                   Page 8
                                                                                         © GBI Research. This is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
1.2     List of Figures
                                        Figure 1:      Crude Oil Price, Brent and WTI, Natural Gas Price, Henry Hub, December 2008 –
                                                       January 2010 ............................................................................................................. 19
                                        Figure 2:      Oil & Gas Expenditure ($ Bn), 2005–2009................................................................. 21
                                        Figure 3:      Merger & Acquisitions and Asset Transaction Activity in the Offshore Drilling Industry
                                                       ($ M), 2007 – 2009 .................................................................................................... 28
                                        Figure 4:      Global, Offshore Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 ........................................... 30
                                        Figure 5:      Global, Offshore Exploratory Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 ........................ 32
                                        Figure 6:      Global, Offshore Development Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 ..................... 33
                                        Figure 7:      Global Offshore Drilling Industry, Competitive Analysis, 2009 ................................... 35
                                        Figure 8:      North America, Offshore Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 .............................. 40
                                        Figure 9:      North America, Offshore Exploratory Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 ........... 42
                                        Figure 10:     North America, Offshore Development Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015......... 43
                                        Figure 11:     North America, Top Offshore Lease Holders, 2009 ................................................... 45
                                        Figure 12:     South and Central America Offshore Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015............ 46
                                        Figure 13:     South and Central America Offshore Exploratory Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn),
                                                       2000-2015.................................................................................................................. 48
                                        Figure 14:     South and Central America Offshore Development Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn),
                                                       2000-2015.................................................................................................................. 49
                                        Figure 15:     South and Central America, Top Offshore Lease Holders, 2009 ............................... 52
                                        Figure 16:     Europe Offshore Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 ........................................... 54
                                        Figure 17:     Europe Offshore Exploratory Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 ........................ 56
                                        Figure 18:     Europe Offshore Development Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 ..................... 57
                                        Figure 19:     Europe, Top Offshore Lease Holders, 2009............................................................... 60
                                        Figure 20:     Middle East and Africa Offshore Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 ................... 62
                                        Figure 21:     Middle East and Africa Offshore Exploratory Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 64
                                        Figure 22:     Middle East and Africa Offshore Development Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015
                                                       ................................................................................................................................... 65
                                        Figure 23:     Middle East and Africa, Top Offshore Lease Holders, 2009....................................... 68
                                        Figure 24:     Asia Pacific Offshore Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 .................................... 71
                                        Figure 25:     Asia Pacific Offshore Exploratory Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 ................. 72
                                        Figure 26:     Asia Pacific Offshore Development Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 .............. 74
                                        Figure 27:     Asia Pacific Top Offshore Lease Holders, 2009......................................................... 76
                                        Figure 28:     GBI Research Methodology, 2010............................................................................. 78




The Future of the Offshore Drilling Industry to 2015 - Market                                                                         GBIGE00026MR /Published FEB 2010
Analysis, Capital Spend and Competitive Landscape
                                                                                                                                                                                  Page 9
                                                                                        © GBI Research. This is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
4       Key Trends And Challenges In The Offshore Drilling Industry
                                        4.1     Key Drivers of the Offshore Drilling Industry
                                        4.1.1     Growth In Oil And Gas Demand In The Long Term And The Increase In The
   The global offshore crude
   oil production is expected
                                                  Offshore Oil And Gas Production are Driving The Growth Of The Offshore
   to increase to XX million                      Drilling Industry
   barrels by 2015 and the              The global demand for oil and gas witnessed a decrease in late 2008 and 2009 due to the global
   global offshore natural gas          economic slowdown. However, with the expected recovery of the global economy led by emerging
   production is expected to            economies of India and China, the demand for oil and gas is likely to recover in 2010. Further,
   increase to XX bcf by                corresponding to the global economic growth, the demand for oil and gas is also expected to
   2011                                 continue to increase in the future. This will result in a corresponding increase in the production,
                                        especially from the offshore regions. With the global crude oil and natural gas demand not
                                        expected to subside and the onshore reserves facing depletion, the offshore crude oil and natural
                                        gas production is only expected to increase in the future. The global offshore oil and gas industry is
                                        expected to continue to increase in the future. The global offshore crude oil production was XX
                                        million barrels and the global offshore natural gas production was XX bcf in 2008. With a positive
                                        outlook and the continuing growth of the offshore industry, the global offshore crude oil production
                                        is expected to increase to XX million barrels by 2015. The global offshore natural gas production is
                                        expected to increase to XX bcf by 2011. This increase in offshore production is expected to be a
                                        key driver of the growth of the offshore drilling industry in the future.
                                        4.1.2     The Shift in Investment to New and Emerging Offshore Regions such as
                                                  Asia and Brazil is Driving the Growth of Offshore Drilling on these Regions
                                        In recent years, new and emerging offshore areas in Brazil, Asia and West Africa have attracted
                                        increasing investments. The offshore areas in the US Gulf of Mexico and the North Sea in Europe
                                        were the hotspots for investment in the last decade. However, the recent discoveries of offshore
                                        fields with huge reserves in various other regions of the world has started a shift in investments
                                        from mature regions such as the North Sea to nascent offshore areas in Brazil, West Africa and
                                        Asian countries such as China and Vietnam.




                                        4.1.3     Increasing Trend towards Deep and Ultra Deep Water Exploration and
                                                  Production is Driving the Growth of the Offshore Drilling Industry
                                        In recent years, there has been an increasing trend towards deep and ultra deep water exploration.
                                        With the decline in the available resources in the onshore areas, there has been a marked shift
                                        towards increased offshore exploration. Initially, the offshore exploration was mainly in shallow
                                        waters. However, in recent years, with the near complete exploitation of the shallow water
                                        resources worldwide, companies have begun drilling deeper in the oceans.




The Future of the Offshore Drilling Industry to 2015 - Market                                              GBIGE00026MR /Published FEB 2010
Analysis, Capital Spend and Competitive Landscape
                                                                                                                                         Page 17
                                                                           © GBI Research. This is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
Figure 5:                                 Global, Offshore Exploratory Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015




                                           Offshore Drilling Spend ($ bn)


                                                                            2000

                                                                                     2001

                                                                                            2002

                                                                                                   2003

                                                                                                          2004

                                                                                                                 2005

                                                                                                                        2006

                                                                                                                               2007

                                                                                                                                      2008

                                                                                                                                             2009

                                                                                                                                                     2010

                                                                                                                                                            2011

                                                                                                                                                                   2012

                                                                                                                                                                          2013

                                                                                                                                                                                 2014

                                                                                                                                                                                         2015
                                         Source: GBI Research



                                         Table 7:                            Global, Offshore Exploratory Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015
                                         Year                                                                                                                 Exploratory Drilling spend
                                         2000
                                         2001
                                         2002
                                         2003
                                         2004
                                         2005
                                         2006
                                         2007
                                         2008
                                         2009
                                         2010
                                         2011
                                         2012
                                         2013
                                         2014
                                         2015
                                         Source: GBI Research




The Future of the Offshore Drilling Industry to 2015 - Market                                                                                       GBIGE00026MR /Published FEB 2010
Analysis, Capital Spend and Competitive Landscape
                                                                                                                                                                                        Page 32
                                                                                                            © GBI Research. This is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
9                    Middle East And Africa Offshore Drilling Expenditure Forecasts
   West Africa has some of
   the most promising areas                                  To 2015
   for offshore oil and gas             West Africa is one of the world’s emerging offshore regions. There have been huge discoveries in
   exploration and the recent           recent years which have increased the attractiveness of the region for exploration and production
   discoveries of subsalt               companies. The West African region is expected to drive the offshore drilling expenditure in the
   reserves are only                    years ahead. On the other hand, there has been relatively little offshore activity in the Middle East
   expected to add to the               region.
   attractiveness of the
   region for increased                 9.1                  The Middle East and Africa Drilling Expenditure Forecasts to 2015
   drilling expenditure
                                        In recent years, Africa has emerged as one of the major regions for offshore oil and gas exploration
                                        and development. West Africa, which includes Angola, Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea and Côte
                                        d’Ivoire, is an important emerging region in the global offshore oil and gas industry and has
                                        combined reserves of XX mmboe. New offshore fields and the desire of many governments to
                                        develop the rich petroleum resources in the region has led to the increase in production and
                                        thereby an increase in the drilling activity in recent years. With the region’s governments keen to
                                        capitalize on their oil and gas resources, the region is expected to continue to attract huge
                                        investments in offshore exploration and development activity in the future. The Middle East region,
                                        which has enormous onshore reserves, also has considerable offshore potential. About XX million
                                        barrels of oil were produced from the Middle East region in 2000, which increased to XX million
                                        barrels in 2008. With the increased prospects in offshore areas, especially in West Africa,
                                        exploration and production activity is expected to increase thereby attracting investments in drilling
                                        in the future.
                                        According to GBI Research’s estimates, the offshore drilling expenditure in the Middle East and
                                        Africa was more than $XX billion during the period from 2000 to 2008. This is expected to increase
                                        to more than $XX billion during the period from 2009 to 2015 with West Africa accounting for a
                                        major share. West Africa has some of the most promising areas for offshore oil and gas exploration
                                        and the recent discoveries of subsalt reserves are only expected to add to the attractiveness of the
                                        region for increased drilling expenditure. Along with Brazil, the West African region is expected to
                                        be a high growth market for offshore drilling.

                                         Figure 20:                         Middle East and Africa Offshore Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015
                                              Drilling Expenditure

                                                                     2000

                                                                              2001

                                                                                     2002

                                                                                            2003

                                                                                                   2004

                                                                                                          2005

                                                                                                                 2006

                                                                                                                        2007

                                                                                                                               2008

                                                                                                                                      2009

                                                                                                                                             2010

                                                                                                                                                    2011

                                                                                                                                                           2012

                                                                                                                                                                  2013

                                                                                                                                                                         2014

                                                                                                                                                                                2015




                                         Source: GBI Research




The Future of the Offshore Drilling Industry to 2015 - Market                                                                                GBIGE00026MR /Published FEB 2010
Analysis, Capital Spend and Competitive Landscape
                                                                                                                                                                                  Page 62
                                                                                                     © GBI Research. This is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
11        Appendix
                                        11.1 Methodology
                                        GBI Research’s dedicated Research and Analysis Teams consists of experienced professionals
                                        with a pedigree in marketing, market research, consulting backgrounds in the energy industry and
                                        advanced statistical expertise.
                                        GBI Research adheres to the Codes of Practice of the Market Research Society (www.mrs.org.uk)
                                        and the Society of Competitive Intelligence Professionals (www.scip.org).
                                        All GBI Research databases are continuously updated and revised. The following research
                                        methodology is followed for all databases and reports.

                                            Figure 28: GBI Research Methodology, 2010




                                            Source: GBI Research



                                        11.1.1 Coverage
                                        The objective of updating GBI Research’s coverage is to ensure that it represents the most up to
                                        date vision of the industry possible.
                                        Changes to the industry taxonomy are built on the basis of extensive research of company,
                                        association and competitor sources.
                                        The company coverage is based on three key factors: market capitalization, revenues and media
                                        attention/innovation/market potential.

                                              An exhaustive search of 56 member exchanges is conducted and companies are prioritized on
                                               the basis of their market capitalization.

                                              The estimated revenues of all major companies, including private and government, are
                                               gathered and used to prioritize coverage.

                                              Companies which are making the news, or which are of particular interest due to their
                                             innovative approach are prioritized.
                                        GBI Research aims to cover all major news events and deals in the energy industry, updated on a
                                        daily basis.




The Future of the Offshore Drilling Industry to 2015 - Market                                                  GBIGE00026MR /Published FEB 2010
Analysis, Capital Spend and Competitive Landscape
                                                                                                                                             Page 78
                                                                               © GBI Research. This is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
The coverage is further streamlined and strengthened with additional input from GBI Research’s
                                        Expert Panel (see below).
                                        11.1.2 Secondary Research
                                        The research process begins with exhaustive secondary research on internal and external sources
                                        being carried out to source qualitative and quantitative information relating to each market.
                                        The secondary research sources that are typically referred to include, but are not limited to:

                                            Company websites, annual reports, financial reports, broker reports, investor presentations
                                             and SEC Filings

                                            Industry trade journals and other literature

                                            Internal and external proprietary databases

                                            National government documents, statistical databases and market reports

                                            News articles, press releases and web-casts specific to the companies operating in the market


                                        11.1.3 Primary Research
                                        GBI Research conducts hundreds of primary interviews a year with industry participants and
                                        commentators in order to validate its data and analysis. A typical research interview fulfills the
                                        following functions:

                                            It provides first-hand information on the market size, market trends, growth trends, competitive
                                             landscape, future outlook etc.

                                            Helps in validating and strengthening the secondary research findings.

                                            Further develops the Analysis Team’s expertise and market understanding.
                                        Primary research involves e-mail correspondence, telephone interviews as well as face-to-face
                                        interviews for each market, category, segment and sub-segment across geographies.
                                        The participants who typically take part in such a process include, but are not limited to:

                                            Industry participants: CEOs, VPs, business development managers, market intelligence
                                             managers and national sales managers

                                            Outside experts: investment bankers, valuation experts, research analysts and key opinion
                                             leaders specializing in oil and gas markets.
                                        11.1.4 Expert Panel Validation
                                        GBI Research uses a panel of experts to cross verify research and forecast methodologies and
                                        drive its analytical content.
                                        The GBI Research expert panel comprises marketing managers, product specialists, international
                                        sales managers from energy companies; academics and geologists from research universities,
                                        consultants from venture capital funds and distributors/suppliers of oil and gas goods and services.
                                        Details of the make up of the expert panel can be viewed through website, and are available to
                                        clients on request.

                                        11.2 Units of Measure
                                        AAGR- Annual Average Growth Rate
                                        BCM-Billion cubic meters
                                        B/d-Barrels of oil per day
                                        Bcf-Billion Cubic Feet
                                        Mcf-Thousand cubic feet


The Future of the Offshore Drilling Industry to 2015 - Market                                                 GBIGE00026MR /Published FEB 2010
Analysis, Capital Spend and Competitive Landscape
                                                                                                                                            Page 79
                                                                              © GBI Research. This is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
MMcf-Million Cubic Feet
                                        MMbbls-Million Barrels of Oil
                                        MMBTU- Million British thermal units
                                        Tcf- Trillion cubic feet
                                        MMTPA – Million Metric Tonnes per Annum
                                        (1 MMTPA = 20081.55 B/d)
                                        Mtoe – Million Tonnes Oil Equivalent

                                        11.3 Contact Us
                                        If you have any queries about this report or would like further information, please contact at the
                                        below given telephone numbers or email address.
                                            North America:                +1 646 395 5460
                                            Europe:                       +44 207 753 4299 (OR) +44 161 227 0669
                                            Asia Pacific:                 +91 40 6616 6700
                                            Email:                        info@gbiresearch.com

                                        11.4 About GBI Research
                                        GBI Research is a premium business information brand specializing in industry analysis.
                                        This report was originally published as a GBI Research branded report and has been reproduced
                                        with permission as part of the subscription offering provided by GBI Research at
                                        www.gbiresearch.com.

                                        11.5 Disclaimer
                                        All Rights Reserved.
                                        No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any
                                        form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior
                                        permission of the publisher, GBI Research.
                                        The facts of this report are believed to be correct at the time of publication but cannot be
                                        guaranteed. Please note that the findings, conclusions and recommendations that GBI Research
                                        delivers will be based on information gathered in good faith from both primary and secondary
                                        sources, whose accuracy we are not always in a position to guarantee. As such GBI Research can
                                        accept no liability whatever for actions taken based on any information that may subsequently
                                        prove to be incorrect.




The Future of the Offshore Drilling Industry to 2015 - Market                                             GBIGE00026MR /Published FEB 2010
Analysis, Capital Spend and Competitive Landscape
                                                                                                                                        Page 80
                                                                          © GBI Research. This is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied

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The Future of the Offshore Drilling Industry to 2015 - Market Analysis, Capital Spend and Competitive Landscape

  • 1. The Future of the Offshore Drilling Industry to 2015 - Market Analysis, Capital Spend and Competitive Landscape Reference Code: GBIGE00026MR Publication Date: February 2010 Global offshore drilling market has experienced a slowdown in 2009 following the hectic activity The global drilling witnessed in the previous years. The growth of the offshore drilling market is being driven by high expenditure is forecast to demand and the prices of crude oil and natural gas. The increase in the demand for oil and natural grow at an annual gas due to the high economic growth during the period from 2004 to 2008 was responsible for the average growth rate of continuous increase of crude oil and natural gas prices until mid 2008. The demand for oil and gas about XX% in the forecast and the sustained high prices stimulated increased activity in the offshore drilling market. period of 2009 to 2015 However, since the economic slowdown and the collapse of the oil and gas prices from record levels of 2008, many of the offshore projects have become uneconomical and have since been delayed or cancelled. This is because the offshore drilling expenditure is directly dependent on the exploration and production capital spending of the international oil companies, national oil companies and independent producers. The tight credit situation and an uncertain outlook for the oil and gas global demand have affected the capital expenditure plans of the exploration and production companies. These factors had a negative effect on the offshore drilling spend in 2009. However, future outlook for offshore drilling is encouraging and the expenditure is expected to steadily increase to 2015. Global Offshore Drilling Expenditure Is Expected To Grow To More Than $XX Billion in The Period From 2009 To 2015 The global offshore drilling expenditure has increased in recent years especially during the period from 2004 to 2008. According to GBI Research’s estimates, approximately $XX billion was spent on offshore drilling from 2000 to 2008. The regions accounting for the major share of the spending were the US Gulf of Mexico (USGOM), West Africa, Brazil and Asia Pacific. The offshore drilling expenditure peaked in 2007- 2008. The global drilling expenditure is forecast to grow at an annual average growth rate of about XX% in the forecast period of 2009 to 2015. The depletion of the reserves in onshore and shallow waters and the advancement in seismic and drilling technologies are driving the increased drilling activities in deepwater offshore regions. This trend is most visible in the offshore areas of the USGOM, Brazil and West Africa. The discovery of deep water and subsalt reserves is expected to drive investments in the sector. As a result of the increasing demand and the decline of the reserves of crude oil and natural gas, the prices of crude oil and natural gas are expected to continue to rise. However, factors such as decreases in service costs as the offshore regions mature, and advances in technology leading to increased efficiency and a reduction in extraction costs, will combine to reduce the total E&P investments. Nonetheless, the positive factors leading to increases in investments are likely to outweigh the negative factors, thereby significantly increasing the offshore drilling expenditure in the future. The Future of the Offshore Drilling Industry to 2015 - Market GBIGE00026MR /Published FEB 2010 Analysis, Capital Spend and Competitive Landscape Page 1 © GBI Research. This is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
  • 2. 1 Table of Contents 1 Table of Contents .................................................................................................................... 6 1.1 List of Tables.................................................................................................................. 8 1.2 List of Figures................................................................................................................. 9 2 The Future of the Offshore Drilling Industry to 2015 .............................................................. 10 2.1 Report Guidance .......................................................................................................... 10 3 Introduction To The Offshore Drilling Industry ....................................................................... 12 3.1 Importance of Offshore Oil and Gas Production and Major Offshore Areas................. 13 3.2 Offshore Drilling Industry Structure and the Process of Offshore Drilling ..................... 14 3.3 Types of Rigs and Support Services ............................................................................ 14 3.3.1 Mobile Bottom Supported Rigs................................................................................ 15 3.3.2 Floating Rigs ........................................................................................................... 15 3.3.3 Key Technologies Used As Supporting Mechanisms in Floating Rigs .................... 15 3.3.4 Subsea Production and Processing Systems.......................................................... 16 4 Key Trends And Challenges In The Offshore Drilling Industry............................................... 17 4.1 Key Drivers of the Offshore Drilling Industry ................................................................ 17 4.1.1 Growth In Oil And Gas Demand In The Long Term And The Increase In The Offshore Oil And Gas Production are Driving The Growth Of The Offshore Drilling Industry.................................................................................................................... 17 4.1.2 The Shift in Investment to New and Emerging Offshore Regions such as Asia and Brazil is Driving the Growth of Offshore Drilling on these Regions .......................... 17 4.1.3 Increasing Trend towards Deep and Ultra Deep Water Exploration and Production is Driving the Growth of the Offshore Drilling Industry................................................. 17 4.1.4 Rapid Technology Advances are a Key Driver of the Development of the Offshore Drilling Industry........................................................................................................ 18 4.2 Major Challenges in The Offshore Drilling Industry ...................................................... 19 4.2.1 Global Economic Slowdown and Low Commodity Prices are a Challenge for the Growth of the Offshore Drilling Industry in the Short Term ...................................... 19 4.2.2 Decreases in Exploration and Production Capital Expenditure is a Major Challenge for the Offshore Drilling Contractors ........................................................................ 20 4.2.3 Geopolitical Risks and Terrorist Threats Might Have a Major Impact on the Offshore Drilling Activities In Particular Countries .................................................................. 21 4.2.4 Highly Competitive Drilling Industry with Intense Price Competition in Addition to the Decrease in the Drilling Activity will be a Major Challenge ...................................... 22 4.3 Offshore Drilling Units Planned and Under Construction ............................................. 22 4.4 Mergers and Acquisitions in the Global Offshore Drilling Industry................................ 27 5 Global Offshore Drilling Expenditure Forecasts To 2015 ....................................................... 29 5.1 Global Offshore Drilling Expenditure Forecasts To 2015 ............................................. 29 5.2 Global Exploratory and Development Drilling Expenditure........................................... 31 5.3 Competitive Analysis of the Offshore Drilling Industry, 2009........................................ 34 5.3.1 Competitive Structure .............................................................................................. 34 5.3.2 Market Share Analysis of the Global Offshore Drilling Industry, 2009 ..................... 34 5.4 Profiles of the Major Offshore Drilling Contractors ....................................................... 35 5.4.1 Transocean Ltd. ...................................................................................................... 35 5.4.2 Noble Corporation ................................................................................................... 36 5.4.3 Diamond Offshore Drilling ....................................................................................... 37 5.4.4 Ensco International.................................................................................................. 37 5.4.5 Seadrill .................................................................................................................... 38 6 North America Offshore Drilling Expenditure Forecasts To 2015 .......................................... 40 6.1 North America Drilling Expenditure Forecasts To 2015 ............................................... 40 6.2 North America Exploratory Drilling Expenditure ........................................................... 41 6.3 North America Development Drilling Expenditure ........................................................ 42 6.4 Major Offshore Oil and Gas Projects In North America ................................................ 44 6.5 Exploration and Production Companies’ Offshore Activity in North America................ 44 6.5.1 North America, Top Lease Holders In 2009 ............................................................ 44 The Future of the Offshore Drilling Industry to 2015 - Market GBIGE00026MR /Published FEB 2010 Analysis, Capital Spend and Competitive Landscape Page 6 © GBI Research. This is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
  • 3. 7 South And Central America Offshore Drilling Expenditure Forecasts To 2015 ...................... 46 7.1 South and Central America Drilling Expenditure Forecasts To 2015 ........................... 46 7.2 South and Central America Exploratory Drilling Expenditure ....................................... 47 7.3 South and Central America Development Drilling Expenditure .................................... 49 7.4 Major Offshore Oil and Gas Projects in South and Central America ............................ 50 7.5 Offshore Activity of the Exploration and Production Companies in South and Central America ........................................................................................................................51 7.5.1 South and Central America, Top Lease Holders In 2009 ........................................ 51 8 Europe Offshore Drilling Expenditure Forecasts To 2015...................................................... 54 8.1 Europe Drilling Expenditure Forecasts To 2015........................................................... 54 8.2 Europe Exploratory Drilling Expenditure....................................................................... 55 8.3 Europe Development Drilling Expenditure.................................................................... 57 8.4 Major Offshore Oil and Gas Projects in Europe ........................................................... 58 8.5 Offshore Activity of Exploration and Production Companies in Europe ........................ 59 8.5.1 Europe, Top Lease Holders in 2009 ........................................................................ 59 9 Middle East And Africa Offshore Drilling Expenditure Forecasts To 2015 ............................. 62 9.1 The Middle East and Africa Drilling Expenditure Forecasts to 2015............................. 62 9.2 The Middle East and Africa Exploratory Drilling Expenditure ....................................... 63 9.3 The Middle East and Africa Development Drilling Expenditure .................................... 65 9.4 Major Offshore Oil and Gas Projects in the Middle East and Africa ............................. 66 9.5 Offshore Exploration and Production Activity in the Middle East And Africa ................ 68 9.5.1 Middle East and Africa, Top Lease Holders in 2009................................................ 68 10 Asia Pacific Offshore Drilling Expenditure Forecasts To 2015............................................... 70 10.1 Asia Pacific Drilling Expenditure Forecasts To 2015.................................................... 70 10.2 Asia Pacific Exploratory Drilling Expenditure................................................................ 72 10.3 Asia Pacific Development Drilling Expenditure............................................................. 73 10.4 Major Offshore Oil and Gas Projects in Asia Pacific .................................................... 74 10.5 Offshore Exploration and Production Activity in Asia Pacific ........................................ 75 10.5.1 Asia Pacific, Top Lease Holders in 2009 ............................................................ 75 11 Appendix................................................................................................................................ 78 11.1 Methodology................................................................................................................. 78 11.1.1 Coverage ............................................................................................................ 78 11.1.2 Secondary Research .......................................................................................... 79 11.1.3 Primary Research ............................................................................................... 79 11.1.4 Expert Panel Validation ...................................................................................... 79 11.2 Units of Measure .......................................................................................................... 79 11.3 Contact Us ................................................................................................................... 80 11.4 About GBI Research .................................................................................................... 80 11.5 Disclaimer .................................................................................................................... 80 The Future of the Offshore Drilling Industry to 2015 - Market GBIGE00026MR /Published FEB 2010 Analysis, Capital Spend and Competitive Landscape Page 7 © GBI Research. This is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
  • 4. 1.1 List of Tables Table 1: Global, Oil & Gas Spending ($ Bn), 2005-2009............................................................ 21 Table 2: Global, Semi-Submersibles Under Construction to 2012 ............................................. 23 Table 3: Global, Drillships Under Construction to 2012 ............................................................. 24 Table 4: Global, Jackup Rigs Under Construction to 2012......................................................... 26 Table 5: Merger & Acquisitions and Asset Transaction Activity in the Offshore Drilling Industry ($ M), 2007 – 2009....................................................................................................... 28 Table 6: Global, Offshore Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 ............................................. 30 Table 7: Global, Offshore Exploratory Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 .......................... 32 Table 8: Global, Offshore Developmental Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 .................... 33 Table 9: Global Offshore Drilling Industry, Competitive Analysis, 2009 ..................................... 35 Table 10: Transocean Ltd., Key Statistics, 2008.......................................................................... 36 Table 11: Noble Corporation, Key Statistics, 2008....................................................................... 37 Table 12: Diamond Offshore Drilling., Key Statistics, 2008.......................................................... 37 Table 13: Ensco International. Key Statistics, 2008 ..................................................................... 38 Table 14: Seadrill Limited. Key Statistics, 2008 ........................................................................... 38 Table 15: North America, Offshore Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015................................. 41 Table 16: North America, Offshore Exploratory Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015.............. 42 Table 17: North America, Offshore Development Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015........... 43 Table 18: North America, Major Offshore Oil and Gas Projects, 2010-2015................................ 44 Table 19: North America, Top Offshore Lease Holders, 2009 ..................................................... 45 Table 20: South and Central America Offshore Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015.............. 47 Table 21: South and Central America Offshore Exploratory Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 .................................................................................................................... 48 Table 22: South and Central America Offshore Development Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 .................................................................................................................... 50 Table 23: South and Central America, Major Offshore Oil and Gas Projects, 2010-2015............ 51 Table 24: South and Central America, Top Offshore Lease Holders, 2009 ................................. 53 Table 25: Europe Offshore Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 ............................................. 55 Table 26: Europe Offshore Exploratory Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 .......................... 56 Table 27: Europe Offshore Development Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 ....................... 58 Table 28: Europe, Major Offshore Oil and Gas Projects, 2010-2015 ........................................... 59 Table 29: Europe, Top Offshore Lease Holders, 2009................................................................. 61 Table 30: Middle East and Africa Offshore Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015..................... 63 Table 31: Middle East and Africa Offshore Exploratory Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015.. 64 Table 32: Middle East and Africa, Offshore Development Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015.. ................................................................................................................................... 66 Table 33: Middle East and Africa, Major Offshore Oil and Gas Projects, 2010-2015................... 67 Table 34: Middle East and Africa, Top Offshore Lease Holders, 2009 ........................................ 69 Table 35: Asia Pacific Offshore Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 ...................................... 71 Table 36: Asia Pacific Offshore Exploratory Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 ................... 73 Table 37: Asia Pacific Offshore Development Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 ................ 74 Table 38: Major Offshore Oil and Gas Projects in Asia Pacific, 2010-2015 ................................. 75 Table 39: Asia Pacific Top Offshore Lease Holders, 2009........................................................... 77 The Future of the Offshore Drilling Industry to 2015 - Market GBIGE00026MR /Published FEB 2010 Analysis, Capital Spend and Competitive Landscape Page 8 © GBI Research. This is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
  • 5. 1.2 List of Figures Figure 1: Crude Oil Price, Brent and WTI, Natural Gas Price, Henry Hub, December 2008 – January 2010 ............................................................................................................. 19 Figure 2: Oil & Gas Expenditure ($ Bn), 2005–2009................................................................. 21 Figure 3: Merger & Acquisitions and Asset Transaction Activity in the Offshore Drilling Industry ($ M), 2007 – 2009 .................................................................................................... 28 Figure 4: Global, Offshore Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 ........................................... 30 Figure 5: Global, Offshore Exploratory Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 ........................ 32 Figure 6: Global, Offshore Development Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 ..................... 33 Figure 7: Global Offshore Drilling Industry, Competitive Analysis, 2009 ................................... 35 Figure 8: North America, Offshore Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 .............................. 40 Figure 9: North America, Offshore Exploratory Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 ........... 42 Figure 10: North America, Offshore Development Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015......... 43 Figure 11: North America, Top Offshore Lease Holders, 2009 ................................................... 45 Figure 12: South and Central America Offshore Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015............ 46 Figure 13: South and Central America Offshore Exploratory Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015.................................................................................................................. 48 Figure 14: South and Central America Offshore Development Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015.................................................................................................................. 49 Figure 15: South and Central America, Top Offshore Lease Holders, 2009 ............................... 52 Figure 16: Europe Offshore Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 ........................................... 54 Figure 17: Europe Offshore Exploratory Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 ........................ 56 Figure 18: Europe Offshore Development Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 ..................... 57 Figure 19: Europe, Top Offshore Lease Holders, 2009............................................................... 60 Figure 20: Middle East and Africa Offshore Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 ................... 62 Figure 21: Middle East and Africa Offshore Exploratory Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 64 Figure 22: Middle East and Africa Offshore Development Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 ................................................................................................................................... 65 Figure 23: Middle East and Africa, Top Offshore Lease Holders, 2009....................................... 68 Figure 24: Asia Pacific Offshore Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 .................................... 71 Figure 25: Asia Pacific Offshore Exploratory Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 ................. 72 Figure 26: Asia Pacific Offshore Development Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 .............. 74 Figure 27: Asia Pacific Top Offshore Lease Holders, 2009......................................................... 76 Figure 28: GBI Research Methodology, 2010............................................................................. 78 The Future of the Offshore Drilling Industry to 2015 - Market GBIGE00026MR /Published FEB 2010 Analysis, Capital Spend and Competitive Landscape Page 9 © GBI Research. This is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
  • 6. 4 Key Trends And Challenges In The Offshore Drilling Industry 4.1 Key Drivers of the Offshore Drilling Industry 4.1.1 Growth In Oil And Gas Demand In The Long Term And The Increase In The The global offshore crude oil production is expected Offshore Oil And Gas Production are Driving The Growth Of The Offshore to increase to XX million Drilling Industry barrels by 2015 and the The global demand for oil and gas witnessed a decrease in late 2008 and 2009 due to the global global offshore natural gas economic slowdown. However, with the expected recovery of the global economy led by emerging production is expected to economies of India and China, the demand for oil and gas is likely to recover in 2010. Further, increase to XX bcf by corresponding to the global economic growth, the demand for oil and gas is also expected to 2011 continue to increase in the future. This will result in a corresponding increase in the production, especially from the offshore regions. With the global crude oil and natural gas demand not expected to subside and the onshore reserves facing depletion, the offshore crude oil and natural gas production is only expected to increase in the future. The global offshore oil and gas industry is expected to continue to increase in the future. The global offshore crude oil production was XX million barrels and the global offshore natural gas production was XX bcf in 2008. With a positive outlook and the continuing growth of the offshore industry, the global offshore crude oil production is expected to increase to XX million barrels by 2015. The global offshore natural gas production is expected to increase to XX bcf by 2011. This increase in offshore production is expected to be a key driver of the growth of the offshore drilling industry in the future. 4.1.2 The Shift in Investment to New and Emerging Offshore Regions such as Asia and Brazil is Driving the Growth of Offshore Drilling on these Regions In recent years, new and emerging offshore areas in Brazil, Asia and West Africa have attracted increasing investments. The offshore areas in the US Gulf of Mexico and the North Sea in Europe were the hotspots for investment in the last decade. However, the recent discoveries of offshore fields with huge reserves in various other regions of the world has started a shift in investments from mature regions such as the North Sea to nascent offshore areas in Brazil, West Africa and Asian countries such as China and Vietnam. 4.1.3 Increasing Trend towards Deep and Ultra Deep Water Exploration and Production is Driving the Growth of the Offshore Drilling Industry In recent years, there has been an increasing trend towards deep and ultra deep water exploration. With the decline in the available resources in the onshore areas, there has been a marked shift towards increased offshore exploration. Initially, the offshore exploration was mainly in shallow waters. However, in recent years, with the near complete exploitation of the shallow water resources worldwide, companies have begun drilling deeper in the oceans. The Future of the Offshore Drilling Industry to 2015 - Market GBIGE00026MR /Published FEB 2010 Analysis, Capital Spend and Competitive Landscape Page 17 © GBI Research. This is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
  • 7. Figure 5: Global, Offshore Exploratory Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 Offshore Drilling Spend ($ bn) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: GBI Research Table 7: Global, Offshore Exploratory Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 Year Exploratory Drilling spend 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: GBI Research The Future of the Offshore Drilling Industry to 2015 - Market GBIGE00026MR /Published FEB 2010 Analysis, Capital Spend and Competitive Landscape Page 32 © GBI Research. This is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
  • 8. 9 Middle East And Africa Offshore Drilling Expenditure Forecasts West Africa has some of the most promising areas To 2015 for offshore oil and gas West Africa is one of the world’s emerging offshore regions. There have been huge discoveries in exploration and the recent recent years which have increased the attractiveness of the region for exploration and production discoveries of subsalt companies. The West African region is expected to drive the offshore drilling expenditure in the reserves are only years ahead. On the other hand, there has been relatively little offshore activity in the Middle East expected to add to the region. attractiveness of the region for increased 9.1 The Middle East and Africa Drilling Expenditure Forecasts to 2015 drilling expenditure In recent years, Africa has emerged as one of the major regions for offshore oil and gas exploration and development. West Africa, which includes Angola, Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea and Côte d’Ivoire, is an important emerging region in the global offshore oil and gas industry and has combined reserves of XX mmboe. New offshore fields and the desire of many governments to develop the rich petroleum resources in the region has led to the increase in production and thereby an increase in the drilling activity in recent years. With the region’s governments keen to capitalize on their oil and gas resources, the region is expected to continue to attract huge investments in offshore exploration and development activity in the future. The Middle East region, which has enormous onshore reserves, also has considerable offshore potential. About XX million barrels of oil were produced from the Middle East region in 2000, which increased to XX million barrels in 2008. With the increased prospects in offshore areas, especially in West Africa, exploration and production activity is expected to increase thereby attracting investments in drilling in the future. According to GBI Research’s estimates, the offshore drilling expenditure in the Middle East and Africa was more than $XX billion during the period from 2000 to 2008. This is expected to increase to more than $XX billion during the period from 2009 to 2015 with West Africa accounting for a major share. West Africa has some of the most promising areas for offshore oil and gas exploration and the recent discoveries of subsalt reserves are only expected to add to the attractiveness of the region for increased drilling expenditure. Along with Brazil, the West African region is expected to be a high growth market for offshore drilling. Figure 20: Middle East and Africa Offshore Drilling Expenditure ($ Bn), 2000-2015 Drilling Expenditure 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: GBI Research The Future of the Offshore Drilling Industry to 2015 - Market GBIGE00026MR /Published FEB 2010 Analysis, Capital Spend and Competitive Landscape Page 62 © GBI Research. This is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
  • 9. 11 Appendix 11.1 Methodology GBI Research’s dedicated Research and Analysis Teams consists of experienced professionals with a pedigree in marketing, market research, consulting backgrounds in the energy industry and advanced statistical expertise. GBI Research adheres to the Codes of Practice of the Market Research Society (www.mrs.org.uk) and the Society of Competitive Intelligence Professionals (www.scip.org). All GBI Research databases are continuously updated and revised. The following research methodology is followed for all databases and reports. Figure 28: GBI Research Methodology, 2010 Source: GBI Research 11.1.1 Coverage The objective of updating GBI Research’s coverage is to ensure that it represents the most up to date vision of the industry possible. Changes to the industry taxonomy are built on the basis of extensive research of company, association and competitor sources. The company coverage is based on three key factors: market capitalization, revenues and media attention/innovation/market potential.  An exhaustive search of 56 member exchanges is conducted and companies are prioritized on the basis of their market capitalization.  The estimated revenues of all major companies, including private and government, are gathered and used to prioritize coverage.  Companies which are making the news, or which are of particular interest due to their innovative approach are prioritized. GBI Research aims to cover all major news events and deals in the energy industry, updated on a daily basis. The Future of the Offshore Drilling Industry to 2015 - Market GBIGE00026MR /Published FEB 2010 Analysis, Capital Spend and Competitive Landscape Page 78 © GBI Research. This is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
  • 10. The coverage is further streamlined and strengthened with additional input from GBI Research’s Expert Panel (see below). 11.1.2 Secondary Research The research process begins with exhaustive secondary research on internal and external sources being carried out to source qualitative and quantitative information relating to each market. The secondary research sources that are typically referred to include, but are not limited to:  Company websites, annual reports, financial reports, broker reports, investor presentations and SEC Filings  Industry trade journals and other literature  Internal and external proprietary databases  National government documents, statistical databases and market reports  News articles, press releases and web-casts specific to the companies operating in the market 11.1.3 Primary Research GBI Research conducts hundreds of primary interviews a year with industry participants and commentators in order to validate its data and analysis. A typical research interview fulfills the following functions:  It provides first-hand information on the market size, market trends, growth trends, competitive landscape, future outlook etc.  Helps in validating and strengthening the secondary research findings.  Further develops the Analysis Team’s expertise and market understanding. Primary research involves e-mail correspondence, telephone interviews as well as face-to-face interviews for each market, category, segment and sub-segment across geographies. The participants who typically take part in such a process include, but are not limited to:  Industry participants: CEOs, VPs, business development managers, market intelligence managers and national sales managers  Outside experts: investment bankers, valuation experts, research analysts and key opinion leaders specializing in oil and gas markets. 11.1.4 Expert Panel Validation GBI Research uses a panel of experts to cross verify research and forecast methodologies and drive its analytical content. The GBI Research expert panel comprises marketing managers, product specialists, international sales managers from energy companies; academics and geologists from research universities, consultants from venture capital funds and distributors/suppliers of oil and gas goods and services. Details of the make up of the expert panel can be viewed through website, and are available to clients on request. 11.2 Units of Measure AAGR- Annual Average Growth Rate BCM-Billion cubic meters B/d-Barrels of oil per day Bcf-Billion Cubic Feet Mcf-Thousand cubic feet The Future of the Offshore Drilling Industry to 2015 - Market GBIGE00026MR /Published FEB 2010 Analysis, Capital Spend and Competitive Landscape Page 79 © GBI Research. This is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
  • 11. MMcf-Million Cubic Feet MMbbls-Million Barrels of Oil MMBTU- Million British thermal units Tcf- Trillion cubic feet MMTPA – Million Metric Tonnes per Annum (1 MMTPA = 20081.55 B/d) Mtoe – Million Tonnes Oil Equivalent 11.3 Contact Us If you have any queries about this report or would like further information, please contact at the below given telephone numbers or email address.  North America: +1 646 395 5460  Europe: +44 207 753 4299 (OR) +44 161 227 0669  Asia Pacific: +91 40 6616 6700  Email: info@gbiresearch.com 11.4 About GBI Research GBI Research is a premium business information brand specializing in industry analysis. This report was originally published as a GBI Research branded report and has been reproduced with permission as part of the subscription offering provided by GBI Research at www.gbiresearch.com. 11.5 Disclaimer All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher, GBI Research. The facts of this report are believed to be correct at the time of publication but cannot be guaranteed. Please note that the findings, conclusions and recommendations that GBI Research delivers will be based on information gathered in good faith from both primary and secondary sources, whose accuracy we are not always in a position to guarantee. As such GBI Research can accept no liability whatever for actions taken based on any information that may subsequently prove to be incorrect. The Future of the Offshore Drilling Industry to 2015 - Market GBIGE00026MR /Published FEB 2010 Analysis, Capital Spend and Competitive Landscape Page 80 © GBI Research. This is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied