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Who pays for mobile broadband?Open Mobile Summit, June 8th 2011 London, UK.,[object Object],Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology EconomicsTechnology, Deutsche Telekom.,[object Object]
A bygone time … not so long ago ...When 1 + 1 was close to 2.,[object Object],Blablabla,[object Object],... Bla …,[object Object],Mobile Network,[object Object],We talked (a lot),[object Object],Rarely did we use the (mobile) web.,[object Object],We SMS’ed (even more),[object Object],2,[object Object],Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Mobile Open Summit 2011, June 8th, 2011, London, UK.,[object Object]
A new paradigm … 1 + 1 is no longer “just” 2 ... Applications have “taken over” the communications.,[object Object],1,[object Object],User,[object Object],1+,[object Object],Device,[object Object],Many applications,[object Object],User & application initiated bandwidth demand.,[object Object],Device & application (IP addr, keep alive, …) driven signaling resources.,[object Object],3,[object Object],Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Mobile Open Summit 2011, June 8th, 2011, London, UK.,[object Object]
Its all in the data package ... Mobile revenues in an Apps centric world could decline rapidly.,[object Object],Western Europe ARPU development in Euro,[object Object],Illustration,[object Object],CS Voice,[object Object],SMS & MMS,[object Object],PS Data,[object Object],23.0,[object Object],22.4,[object Object],By 2015,[object Object],more than 70%,[object Object],of users have ,[object Object],a smartphone,[object Object],6.2,[object Object],?,[object Object],3.3,[object Object],3.4,[object Object],3.8,[object Object],12.7,[object Object],15.7,[object Object],13.0,[object Object],6.2,[object Object],6.5,[object Object],2010A,[object Object],2015E,[object Object],Mobile,[object Object],centric,[object Object],2015E,[object Object],Apps,[object Object],centric,[object Object],Source 2010 & 2015 Pyramid Research March 2011 Western Europe.,[object Object],4,[object Object],Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Mobile Open Summit 2011, June 8th, 2011, London, UK.,[object Object]
When the mobile network becomes a bit-pipe ... Apple iTune promotion in NL ... free downloads.,[object Object],9× increase in peak throughput.,[object Object],More than twice the total volume.,[object Object],30+ thsd downloads in the peak.,[object Object],Promotion day,[object Object],Normal,[object Object],5,[object Object],Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Mobile Open Summit 2011, June 8th, 2011, London, UK.,[object Object]
Smartphone traffic tsunami ...  and growth expected to continue for quite a few years more...,[object Object],Smartphone indicators,[object Object],×7,[object Object],Data signaling,[object Object],Problems!,[object Object],May – June 2010 (Netherlands).,[object Object],“iPhone overload T-Mobile (NL)  network” (Volkskrant, May 2010).,[object Object],“T-Mobile (NL) gives compensation”. ,[object Object],(2 month no data charge & iPhone users gets €30.),[object Object],“T-Mobile (NL) admits not able to handle data growth in its mobile network“ (Tweakers.net).,[object Object],×6,[object Object],Smartphones,[object Object],×4,[object Object],Throughput,[object Object],×5,[object Object],Volume,[object Object],December 2008 to December 2010,[object Object],Illustration,[object Object],6,[object Object],Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Mobile Open Summit 2011, June 8th, 2011, London, UK.,[object Object]
Smartphone usage ... 2GB = unlimited ... for most.,[object Object],Monthly volume relative to Average usage:,[object Object],>2GB,[object Object],3% of users with,[object Object],30% of volume,[object Object],Outside bundle:,[object Object],4% of users with,[object Object],35% of volume,[object Object],Illustration,[object Object],Laptops,[object Object],Today,[object Object],	ca. 20% unlimited subscriptions takes ca. 60% of data volume.,[object Object],Less than 2% of Laptops,[object Object],takes more than 20% of data volume.,[object Object],7,[object Object],Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Mobile Open Summit 2011, June 8th, 2011, London, UK.,[object Object]
The profitability Squeeze.,[object Object],Cash pressure by un-controllable,[object Object],mobile data growth,[object Object],As it looks today,[object Object],Mobile data growth will be very challenging to support with HSPA-only.,[object Object],Free cash flow,[object Object],Trends,[object Object],[object Object]
 LTE deployment will be accelerated.
 In-door off-loading to WiFi and Femto.HSPA only ,[object Object],-,[object Object],No LTE,[object Object],HSPA, with LTE deployment,[object Object],HSPA+LTE, 50% off,[object Object],-,[object Object],load,[object Object],2010,[object Object],2012,[object Object],2014,[object Object],2016,[object Object],2018,[object Object],2020,[object Object],Operator illustration,[object Object],8,[object Object],Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Mobile Open Summit 2011, June 8th, 2011, London, UK.,[object Object]
Network sharing a way to profitability and cash.,[object Object],> 7 years,[object Object],< 5 years,[object Object],4 – 8 years,[object Object],The best sharing strategy depends on the business cycle and,[object Object], technology age.,[object Object],LTE,[object Object],UMTS  & GSM -> LTE,[object Object],HSPA / UMTS,[object Object],HSPA+,[object Object],Rollout Phase,[object Object],    (primarily coverage),[object Object],           Steady State,[object Object],(capacity & in-fill),[object Object],         Modernization,[object Object],         (replacement),[object Object],Illustration,[object Object],Rollout,[object Object],Steady state,[object Object],Modernization,[object Object],Significant Capex savings.,[object Object],Substantial Opex prevention.,[object Object],Best shared network.,[object Object],Little Capex benefits.,[object Object],Substantial Opex savings.,[object Object],Significant write-offs & re-structuring costs.,[object Object],Significant Capex savings.,[object Object],Substantial Opex savings.,[object Object],Minor write-off.,[object Object],Re-structuring costs.,[object Object],9,[object Object],Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Mobile Open Summit 2011, June 8th, 2011, London, UK.,[object Object]
The smartphone … The “killer” device and its “killer” applications…,[object Object],The smartphone … The “killer”device and its “killer”applications…,[object Object],10,[object Object],Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Mobile Open Summit 2011, June 8th, 2011, London, UK.,[object Object]

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Who pays for mobile broadband?

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