1. The document is a presentation on using process behavior charts (PBCs) like X-charts and MR-charts to analyze time-series data and detect signals.
2. It uses the Halloween theme of "trick-or-treaters" data as an example to demonstrate how to construct PBCs, set natural process limits, and interpret the charts to determine if processes are in-control or if special causes are present.
3. The presentation emphasizes that PBCs can help organizations filter noise from signals, avoid overreacting to normal variation, and focus on improving processes when meaningful issues are detected.
Memorándum de Entendimiento (MoU) entre Codelco y SQM
Don't Let Metrics & Stats Scare You
1. Metrics & Statistics
Don't Have to be Scary
Mark Graban
Mark@KaiNexus.com
@MarkGraban
Matt Banna
Matt.Banna@KaiNexus.com
@MattBanna
2. The Hellish Webinar Boogistics
! Presentation (45 minutes)
" Or until the end of time
! Q&A (10 minutes)
! Use the GoToWebinar
Meeting Panel to
submit a question at
any time – if you dare!
! A ghoul will deliver recording link & slides via email
" Check your spooky spam folder
! Also – see the “Handouts” feature and Chat box
18. 1. Are we
achieving our
target or
goal?
2. Are we
improving?
3. How do we
improve?
Do we have a crystal ball?
19. A run Chart Can Help
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003
Run Chart (Trick or Treaters)
20. Three Key Questions
1. Are we
achieving our
target or
goal?
2. Are we
improving?
3. How do we
improve?
22. Signals vs. Noise
“While every data set contains noise,
some data sets may contain signals.
Therefore, before you can detect a signal
within any given data set,
you must first filter out the noise."
"Process
Behavior
Charts"
23. Process Behavior Charts Help
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
X Chart (# of Trick or Treaters)
Lower Natural Process Limit
Upper Natural Process Limit
Average
25. Is the Math Scary?
It’s not scary…
but you have to dare to enter…
26. Calculate Mean & Moving Ranges
! Calculate mean of the X
baseline data points
! Calculate the moving
range of the X-1 data
points
" =ABS(B3-B2)
26
Data
Moving
Range (MR)
1980 36
1981 40 4
1982 42 2
1983 35 7
1984 43 8
1985 46 3
1986 38 8
1987 43 5
1988 45 2
1989 42 3
1990 47 5
27. Calculate Natural Process Limits
! Calculate “MR-bar”
" Average of the baseline
! Calculate the Limits
" Lower = Average – 3*(MR bar)/1.128
" Upper = Mean + 3*(MR bar)/1.128
27
Data
Moving
Range
(MR) Average MR Bar
Lower
Natural
Process
Limit
Upper
Natural
Process
Limit
1980 36 41.55 4.70 29.04 54.05
1981 40 4 41.55 4.70 29.04 54.05
1982 42 2 41.55 4.70 29.04 54.05
1983 35 7 41.55 4.70 29.04 54.05
1984 43 8 41.55 4.70 29.04 54.05
1985 46 3 41.55 4.70 29.04 54.05
1986 38 8 41.55 4.70 29.04 54.05
1987 43 5 41.55 4.70 29.04 54.05
28. Draw the X Chart
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003
X Chart (# of Trick or Treaters)
Lower Natural Process Limit
Upper Natural Process Limit
Average
55. Noooo! The horror!
! Overreacting to noise
! Missing signals
! Confusing Natural Process
Limits with a target
! Using a calculated
Standard Deviation to
calculate the limits…
61. Next Webinar – Wednesday November 28
http://www.kainexus.com/webinars
How One Community Hospital is Creating
a Culture of Continuous Improvement
Mike McGowan
Director, Process Excellence at Marietta Memorial Hospital
63. Credits
Special thanks to all the people who made and released
these awesome resources for free:
! Presentation template by SlidesCarnival
! Photographs by Unsplash