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International Data Centre Page 1
The DPRK 2013 underground test and Chebarkul meteorite:
joint interpretation of seismic, infrasound,
acoustoseismic, and seismoacoustic waves
Kitov, I., D. Bobrov, M. Rozhkov, and K. Sitnikov
International Data Centre
Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive
Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization
Provisional Technical Secretariat
Vienna International Centre
P.O. Box 1200
A-1400 Vienna
AUSTRIA
ivan.kitov@ctbto.org
International Data Centre Page 2
Outline
1. The 2013 DPRK underground test
• Seismic wavefield. Cross comparison
• Seismoacoustic effect in the epicentral zone
• Local seismoacoustic wave
2. Chebarkul meteorite
• Source function
• Peak energy release. Acoustic (low-amplitude shock) wave
• Infrasound source vs. seismic source
• Acoustoseismic waves: Pn, Lg, LR, LQ
• Comparison with atmospheric nuclear tests: Love and Rayleigh
waves
• Comparison with the 1987 Chulym meteorite.
International Data Centre Page 3
Seismic waves: cross comparison
2013 vs. 2009 : KSRS and USRK
2009
2013
2009
2013
International Data Centre Page 4
Seismic waves: cross correlation relative location
Final location is based on reciprocal cross-
correlation when the estimate is based on mutual
master-slave permutation. Distance between events is
590 meters for 4 stations, and 570 meters for 22
stations. X and Y distances are 470 and 360 meters
for 4 stations, and 400 and 410 meters for 22
stations.
2009
2013
2009
2013
2006
4 regional arrays
22 IMS arrays
Joint relative location
Initial master event is DPRK-2009, primary slave is
DPRK-2013, and secondary slave is DPRK-2006 .
International Data Centre Page 5
DPRK 2013: LR
Ms(IDC)=3.9
USRK
KSRS
TLY
Z
H1
H2
Z
H1
H2
Z
H1
H2
International Data Centre Page 6
DPRK 2013: LR
Ms(IDC)=3.9
OBN
BVAR
AKTO
SPITS
LQ?
Z
H1
H2
International Data Centre Page 7
Epicentral seismoacoustic waves:
total energy
R
u(0)
r
u(r)
P(r) = ρCu(r)
u(r) = Ar-n
n>1
u(r) = v(R) h/R
ρ - air density
C – sound speed
u(r) – vertical velocityv(R)
v(R) = Bh-1/4 Y1/3/R
Ei/Es ~ 10-4 ; Ei – infrasound energy, Es - seismic energy
Ei ~ 10-3 kt
h
P(0)
V(R) – radial velocity; Y – yield; B - constant
International Data Centre Page 8
Local seismoacoustic waves
seismic vs. infrasound waveforms
Infrasound channel measures particle velocity
I45RU
USRK
USRK
I45RU
International Data Centre Page 9
Chebarkul meteorite: source and energy
Ek = mV2/2 Ek = 1.62 · 1016 J
m0 = 108 kg 1 kt = 4.18 · 1012 J
V0 = 1.8 ·104 m/s W = 380 kt
Dynamic traction: Pdyn = ρ(h)CDV2
Aerodynamic deceleration dV/dt = - ρ CDV2 /m(t)
Dissipation of kinetic energy dE = 0.5V2dm + mVdV
Ablation dm/dt = 0.413AΓρV3/Hvap
Luminous flux F = -(τV2/8πZ2)dm/dt
Energy release history
Total energy
International Data Centre Page 10
Chebarkul meteorite: source and energy
Flight time ~20 s; Flight distance ~350 km
Flight height change ~90 km
Height of peak light emission ~ between 30 km and 20 km
Duration of peak emission ~ 3 s
Length of peak emission ~ 35 km
Average energy release per km 380kt/350km =1.1 kt/km (1.1 t/m)
Peak energy release ~6 kt/km or 200 kt in total
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
height,km
dV/dt, m/s·s
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
height,km
ρ/ρ0
Peak light emission
Normalized Air Density Acceleration
International Data Centre Page 11
Chebarkul meteorite: source and energy
V(1km) = 2500 m/s
m(1km) = 3,700 tons
Ek(1km) = 27 kt
E30 to 20 = 150 kt0
20
40
60
80
100
1.E+10 1.E+11 1.E+12 1.E+13 1.E+14 1.E+15
height,km
dE/dt, J/s
0.5*V*V*dm
m*V*dV
30 km
20 km
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
height,km
dE/dt
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0100200300400
height,km
Distance, km
P
Shock wave
Normalized energy release
International Data Centre Page 12
Chebarkul meteorite: seismic source
h
RP2/P1
r
(P2-P1)/P1 < 0.1 (high altitude explosion)
P1 - surface atmospheric pressure; P 2 – shock wave pressure
ΔP(r,t)/P1 = (ΔP(R0)/P1 )max(1-ta/L+)exp(-ta/L+)
ΔP = P2-P1 ; R0 – radius of peak overpressure; t – time;
a – sound speed near the surface; L+ - the length of shock wave
impact
t0
t1
t2
Acousto-
seismic
source region
P2/P1Shock wave
Source shape and evolution
Nuclear test
t1-t0 ~70 sec
Δ~100 km
Shock wave
International Data Centre Page 13
Chebarkul meteorite: seismic observations,
Pn, ML=2.4; (ML(REB)=2.2)
Z
ARU N
E
Z
AKTO H1
H2
BVAR
KURK
MKAR
International Data Centre Page 14
Chebarkul meteorite: seismic observations
Pn and LgNot the impact!
International Data Centre Page 15
Chebarkul meteorite: seismic observations
No LR associated in the REB!
ARU
AKTO
BVAR
KURK
AAK
OBN
MKAR
KBZ
International Data Centre Page 16
Chebarkul meteorite: seismic observations,
LR: offline estimation
# STA Phase Delta, deg Ms Ms res
1 BVAR LR 5.22 4.21 0.25
2 ZALV LR 13.53 4.35 0.39
3 AAK LR 14.17 4.11 0.15
4 OBN LR 14.65 3.20 -0.76
5 MKAR LR 14.91 4.35 0.39
6 KVAR LR 16.05 3.91 -0.05
7 KBZ LR 16.12 4.02 0.06
8 GNI LR 18.05 3.94 -0.02
9 NRIK LR 19.33 4.07 0.11
10 AKASG LR 20.07 4.06 0.11
11 FINES LR 20.23 3.23 -0.73
12 BRTR LR 23.79 3.72 -0.24
13 MLR LR 24.47 4.18 0.22
14 HFS LR 26.33 4.02 0.07
15 NOA LR 27.41 3.96 0.00
16 VRAC LR 28.05 4.00 0.05
17 SPITS LR 28.88 3.75 -0.21
18 GERES LR 29.95 4.21 0.26
19 EIL LR 31.17 3.87 -0.09
20 DAVOX LR 33.22 4.28 0.32
21 JMIC LR 34.09 3.71 -0.24
22 BORG LR 40.55 3.91 -0.05
23 CMAR LR 45.55 3.79 -0.17
24 KSRS LR 47.21 4.23 0.27
25 BBB LR 73.81 3.87 -0.09
25 stations (+ARU, AKTO,
and KURK)
Ms(IDC)max = 4.35 (ZALV
and MKAR)
Ms(IDC)min =3.20 (OBN)
Ms(IDC)ave =3.95 (±0.06)
Ms(met) > Ms(DPRK2013)
Δmax= 74º !
International Data Centre Page 17
Chebarkul meteorite: seismic observations,
LR
1. Ms(IDC) = 3.95
2. ML (REB)=2.2
3. IDC rule: no LR associated for large Ms-mb differences
4. IDC rule: no LR associated without mb
5. Ignores physics of seismic wave generation
6. Ignores historical observations from atmospheric tests
7. What CTBT monitoring misses?
• Accurate hypocenter location of atmospheric tests
with LR azimuths and travel times
• Altitude estimate from periods of LR and LQ
• Size estimate from amplitudes and periods
• Fusion of seismic and infrasound wavefield
• Interpretation of the event nature (nuclear tests vs. meteorites)
A major gap in IDC processing at the development stage
International Data Centre Page 18
Chebarkul meteorite: seismic observations,
LQ
ARU
AKTO
BVAR
KURK
OBN
AAK
MKAR
KBZ
International Data Centre Page 19
Chebarkul meteorite: seismic observations,
LQ
NRIK
SPITS
International Data Centre Page 20
Atmospheric test: seismic observations,
LQ
E-W
Z
time
LQ
LR
Δ =3660 km
1 min
From: Pasechnik, I.P. (1970). Characteristic of seismic waves from nuclear explosions
and earthquakes, Nauka (in Russian)
International Data Centre Page 21
Location
Pn : 55.06 º N, 60.92º E, Smax=23.5 km, Smin =15.3 km
LR/LQ : 54.81º N, 62.23º E, Smax=2.5 km, Smin =1.6 km (no modelling error)
I : 53.52º N, 66.59º E, Smax=376 km, Smin =197 km
REB : 54.06º N, 61.80º E, Smax=51 km, Smin =13 km
Disintegrated
meteorite
impact zone
International Data Centre Page 22
Chulym meteorite, 1984
26.02.1984, 13:40:00
57.5º N, 85.1º E
mLg = 3.39
Ek ~10 kt
(From: Ovchinnikov and Pasechnik, Meteoritika 47,1988)
International Data Centre Page 23
Local acoustoseismic wave
ARU Z
ARU N
ARU E
Station ARU: acoustoseismic wave 15 min after Pn
Δ(Pn) ~ 200 km; Δ(LR/LQ) ~ 280 km
Travel time (Pn) = 10 min
Travel time (LR/LQ) = 14 min;
No signal
Signal stronger than Lg
October 20, 1962, t0=09-21-45.6, =50.4227, =77.723, Y=6.7 kt, HOB=635 m
NCE (328 km). (By the courtesy of Sokolova I.N., IGR Kazakhstan, T2-P57)
~18 min
International Data Centre Page 24
Conclusions
• Infrasound signal from a relatively small underground explosion can be
measured at near-regional distances
• Local infrasound signal generated by seismic wave can be used for relative
calibration of seismic and infrasound sensors
• The energy of infrasound and seismic sources associated with a meteorite
may differ by a factor of 2
• The impact of the Chebarkul meteorite is unlikely. Debris reached the surface
• There were at least three sources different in space and time: infrasound, LR
and LQ, and Pn waves.
• These three sources are located along the trajectory
• Local acoustoseismic waves were measured at seismic station ARU
• The IDC has a major hole in joint processing of infrasound and seismic
waves from atmospheric explosions. In fact, this type of nuclear tests is
practically excluded from seismic monitoring
• The IDC misses important information on surface wave magnitude of
acoustoseismic events, which can be used for screening

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Joint interpretation of seismic, infrasound, acoustoseismic, and seismoacoustic waves from DPRK test and Chebarkul meteorite

  • 1. International Data Centre Page 1 The DPRK 2013 underground test and Chebarkul meteorite: joint interpretation of seismic, infrasound, acoustoseismic, and seismoacoustic waves Kitov, I., D. Bobrov, M. Rozhkov, and K. Sitnikov International Data Centre Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization Provisional Technical Secretariat Vienna International Centre P.O. Box 1200 A-1400 Vienna AUSTRIA ivan.kitov@ctbto.org
  • 2. International Data Centre Page 2 Outline 1. The 2013 DPRK underground test • Seismic wavefield. Cross comparison • Seismoacoustic effect in the epicentral zone • Local seismoacoustic wave 2. Chebarkul meteorite • Source function • Peak energy release. Acoustic (low-amplitude shock) wave • Infrasound source vs. seismic source • Acoustoseismic waves: Pn, Lg, LR, LQ • Comparison with atmospheric nuclear tests: Love and Rayleigh waves • Comparison with the 1987 Chulym meteorite.
  • 3. International Data Centre Page 3 Seismic waves: cross comparison 2013 vs. 2009 : KSRS and USRK 2009 2013 2009 2013
  • 4. International Data Centre Page 4 Seismic waves: cross correlation relative location Final location is based on reciprocal cross- correlation when the estimate is based on mutual master-slave permutation. Distance between events is 590 meters for 4 stations, and 570 meters for 22 stations. X and Y distances are 470 and 360 meters for 4 stations, and 400 and 410 meters for 22 stations. 2009 2013 2009 2013 2006 4 regional arrays 22 IMS arrays Joint relative location Initial master event is DPRK-2009, primary slave is DPRK-2013, and secondary slave is DPRK-2006 .
  • 5. International Data Centre Page 5 DPRK 2013: LR Ms(IDC)=3.9 USRK KSRS TLY Z H1 H2 Z H1 H2 Z H1 H2
  • 6. International Data Centre Page 6 DPRK 2013: LR Ms(IDC)=3.9 OBN BVAR AKTO SPITS LQ? Z H1 H2
  • 7. International Data Centre Page 7 Epicentral seismoacoustic waves: total energy R u(0) r u(r) P(r) = ρCu(r) u(r) = Ar-n n>1 u(r) = v(R) h/R ρ - air density C – sound speed u(r) – vertical velocityv(R) v(R) = Bh-1/4 Y1/3/R Ei/Es ~ 10-4 ; Ei – infrasound energy, Es - seismic energy Ei ~ 10-3 kt h P(0) V(R) – radial velocity; Y – yield; B - constant
  • 8. International Data Centre Page 8 Local seismoacoustic waves seismic vs. infrasound waveforms Infrasound channel measures particle velocity I45RU USRK USRK I45RU
  • 9. International Data Centre Page 9 Chebarkul meteorite: source and energy Ek = mV2/2 Ek = 1.62 · 1016 J m0 = 108 kg 1 kt = 4.18 · 1012 J V0 = 1.8 ·104 m/s W = 380 kt Dynamic traction: Pdyn = ρ(h)CDV2 Aerodynamic deceleration dV/dt = - ρ CDV2 /m(t) Dissipation of kinetic energy dE = 0.5V2dm + mVdV Ablation dm/dt = 0.413AΓρV3/Hvap Luminous flux F = -(τV2/8πZ2)dm/dt Energy release history Total energy
  • 10. International Data Centre Page 10 Chebarkul meteorite: source and energy Flight time ~20 s; Flight distance ~350 km Flight height change ~90 km Height of peak light emission ~ between 30 km and 20 km Duration of peak emission ~ 3 s Length of peak emission ~ 35 km Average energy release per km 380kt/350km =1.1 kt/km (1.1 t/m) Peak energy release ~6 kt/km or 200 kt in total 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 height,km dV/dt, m/s·s 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 height,km ρ/ρ0 Peak light emission Normalized Air Density Acceleration
  • 11. International Data Centre Page 11 Chebarkul meteorite: source and energy V(1km) = 2500 m/s m(1km) = 3,700 tons Ek(1km) = 27 kt E30 to 20 = 150 kt0 20 40 60 80 100 1.E+10 1.E+11 1.E+12 1.E+13 1.E+14 1.E+15 height,km dE/dt, J/s 0.5*V*V*dm m*V*dV 30 km 20 km 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 height,km dE/dt 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0100200300400 height,km Distance, km P Shock wave Normalized energy release
  • 12. International Data Centre Page 12 Chebarkul meteorite: seismic source h RP2/P1 r (P2-P1)/P1 < 0.1 (high altitude explosion) P1 - surface atmospheric pressure; P 2 – shock wave pressure ΔP(r,t)/P1 = (ΔP(R0)/P1 )max(1-ta/L+)exp(-ta/L+) ΔP = P2-P1 ; R0 – radius of peak overpressure; t – time; a – sound speed near the surface; L+ - the length of shock wave impact t0 t1 t2 Acousto- seismic source region P2/P1Shock wave Source shape and evolution Nuclear test t1-t0 ~70 sec Δ~100 km Shock wave
  • 13. International Data Centre Page 13 Chebarkul meteorite: seismic observations, Pn, ML=2.4; (ML(REB)=2.2) Z ARU N E Z AKTO H1 H2 BVAR KURK MKAR
  • 14. International Data Centre Page 14 Chebarkul meteorite: seismic observations Pn and LgNot the impact!
  • 15. International Data Centre Page 15 Chebarkul meteorite: seismic observations No LR associated in the REB! ARU AKTO BVAR KURK AAK OBN MKAR KBZ
  • 16. International Data Centre Page 16 Chebarkul meteorite: seismic observations, LR: offline estimation # STA Phase Delta, deg Ms Ms res 1 BVAR LR 5.22 4.21 0.25 2 ZALV LR 13.53 4.35 0.39 3 AAK LR 14.17 4.11 0.15 4 OBN LR 14.65 3.20 -0.76 5 MKAR LR 14.91 4.35 0.39 6 KVAR LR 16.05 3.91 -0.05 7 KBZ LR 16.12 4.02 0.06 8 GNI LR 18.05 3.94 -0.02 9 NRIK LR 19.33 4.07 0.11 10 AKASG LR 20.07 4.06 0.11 11 FINES LR 20.23 3.23 -0.73 12 BRTR LR 23.79 3.72 -0.24 13 MLR LR 24.47 4.18 0.22 14 HFS LR 26.33 4.02 0.07 15 NOA LR 27.41 3.96 0.00 16 VRAC LR 28.05 4.00 0.05 17 SPITS LR 28.88 3.75 -0.21 18 GERES LR 29.95 4.21 0.26 19 EIL LR 31.17 3.87 -0.09 20 DAVOX LR 33.22 4.28 0.32 21 JMIC LR 34.09 3.71 -0.24 22 BORG LR 40.55 3.91 -0.05 23 CMAR LR 45.55 3.79 -0.17 24 KSRS LR 47.21 4.23 0.27 25 BBB LR 73.81 3.87 -0.09 25 stations (+ARU, AKTO, and KURK) Ms(IDC)max = 4.35 (ZALV and MKAR) Ms(IDC)min =3.20 (OBN) Ms(IDC)ave =3.95 (±0.06) Ms(met) > Ms(DPRK2013) Δmax= 74º !
  • 17. International Data Centre Page 17 Chebarkul meteorite: seismic observations, LR 1. Ms(IDC) = 3.95 2. ML (REB)=2.2 3. IDC rule: no LR associated for large Ms-mb differences 4. IDC rule: no LR associated without mb 5. Ignores physics of seismic wave generation 6. Ignores historical observations from atmospheric tests 7. What CTBT monitoring misses? • Accurate hypocenter location of atmospheric tests with LR azimuths and travel times • Altitude estimate from periods of LR and LQ • Size estimate from amplitudes and periods • Fusion of seismic and infrasound wavefield • Interpretation of the event nature (nuclear tests vs. meteorites) A major gap in IDC processing at the development stage
  • 18. International Data Centre Page 18 Chebarkul meteorite: seismic observations, LQ ARU AKTO BVAR KURK OBN AAK MKAR KBZ
  • 19. International Data Centre Page 19 Chebarkul meteorite: seismic observations, LQ NRIK SPITS
  • 20. International Data Centre Page 20 Atmospheric test: seismic observations, LQ E-W Z time LQ LR Δ =3660 km 1 min From: Pasechnik, I.P. (1970). Characteristic of seismic waves from nuclear explosions and earthquakes, Nauka (in Russian)
  • 21. International Data Centre Page 21 Location Pn : 55.06 º N, 60.92º E, Smax=23.5 km, Smin =15.3 km LR/LQ : 54.81º N, 62.23º E, Smax=2.5 km, Smin =1.6 km (no modelling error) I : 53.52º N, 66.59º E, Smax=376 km, Smin =197 km REB : 54.06º N, 61.80º E, Smax=51 km, Smin =13 km Disintegrated meteorite impact zone
  • 22. International Data Centre Page 22 Chulym meteorite, 1984 26.02.1984, 13:40:00 57.5º N, 85.1º E mLg = 3.39 Ek ~10 kt (From: Ovchinnikov and Pasechnik, Meteoritika 47,1988)
  • 23. International Data Centre Page 23 Local acoustoseismic wave ARU Z ARU N ARU E Station ARU: acoustoseismic wave 15 min after Pn Δ(Pn) ~ 200 km; Δ(LR/LQ) ~ 280 km Travel time (Pn) = 10 min Travel time (LR/LQ) = 14 min; No signal Signal stronger than Lg October 20, 1962, t0=09-21-45.6, =50.4227, =77.723, Y=6.7 kt, HOB=635 m NCE (328 km). (By the courtesy of Sokolova I.N., IGR Kazakhstan, T2-P57) ~18 min
  • 24. International Data Centre Page 24 Conclusions • Infrasound signal from a relatively small underground explosion can be measured at near-regional distances • Local infrasound signal generated by seismic wave can be used for relative calibration of seismic and infrasound sensors • The energy of infrasound and seismic sources associated with a meteorite may differ by a factor of 2 • The impact of the Chebarkul meteorite is unlikely. Debris reached the surface • There were at least three sources different in space and time: infrasound, LR and LQ, and Pn waves. • These three sources are located along the trajectory • Local acoustoseismic waves were measured at seismic station ARU • The IDC has a major hole in joint processing of infrasound and seismic waves from atmospheric explosions. In fact, this type of nuclear tests is practically excluded from seismic monitoring • The IDC misses important information on surface wave magnitude of acoustoseismic events, which can be used for screening