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February 12, 2013

    The Whole Picture:
     Where America’s
   Broadband Networks
       Really Stand
Richard Bennett
Senior Research Fellow
rbennett@itif.org
Motivation for the Report
 European Commission VP Neelie Kroes says U.S. is
  pulling ahead:
   High speed networks now pass more than 80 percent of U.S.
    homes, a figure that quadrupled in three years
   Though the public sector can help, the real heavy lifting must be
    done by private investment
 American critics say we’re falling behind:
   U.S. is 22nd and falling in broadband – Susan Crawford
   U.S. in 29th place and falling fast – David Cay Johnson
 Who’s right?
                                                                        2
Four Dimensions of Broadband Policy
Deployment: What share of postal addresses
 does the network cover?

Adoption: What share of households subscribe?

Performance: How fast are downloads and
 uploads?

Price: What does it cost to use the service?
                                                 3
America’s Circumstances
Long copper loop PSTN
Cable TV system alongside the PSTN
Low population density, especially in urban
 areas
Plethora of entertainment choices, but low
 computer ownership
Close to most key Internet resources
Technology-flexible mobile policy
                                               4
Broad Deployment of DSL and Cable
96.3 percent have access to some form
 of wired broadband
 ~96 percent have access to cable
  modem
 ~85 percent have access to DSL
 ~18 percent have access to fiber

                                         5
DSL and Cable in OECD
120%


100%


80%


60%


40%


20%


 0%




          Cable deployment   DSL deployment
                                              6
Broad Deployment of DSL and Cable
Third highest rate of wired intermodal
 competition in OECD (behind Belgium and
 Netherlands)
 Fiber-based broadband (FiOS and U-verse)
  is growing faster than cable modem
 Long-loop DSL is losing subscribers
 Market share is 57% cable, 43% telco

                                             7
Intense Fiber Installation

America is installing more
 fiber optic cable than all of
 Europe



                                 8
OECD Fiber Deployment
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
 0%




                          9
America Leads in 4G/LTE
America leads the world in the
 adoption of 4G/LTE mobile
 broadband

Only Korea is close

Very helpful for rural broadband
                                    10
Adoption Remains an Issue
Broadband adoption is not as high as we would
 like it to be, but:
     U. S.: 68.2%
     EU-15: 66.9%
Adoption is best measured by computer-owning
 homes
     U. S.: 88.6%
     EU-15: 85.9%
Spread between top nation Iceland and U.S. for
 computer homes is less than 5%
                                                  11
High Adoption by Computer Homes
 88.6% adoption by U.S. computer-owning homes




                                                 12
Reasons for Non-Adoption
                                       6%
                                       6%
                                      10%                            Other
                                      12%                            Availability
                                                                     Price
                                      18%
                                                                     No Computer
                                                                     Usability
                                                                     Relevance
                                     48%


Source: Pew survey: Americans’ main reasons for not using the Internet, 2010
                                                                                    13
Speed: Overall
 Traditional Speed leaders:
  Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, Netherlands, and
   Denmark
 U. S. average network (peak) rate is 29.6 Mbps
 Top 10 Nations are less than 10 Mbps ahead
  Average peak for the other Top 10 nations is 37.9
   Mbps
  American speeds are improving faster than world-
   leading speeds.
                                                       14
Speed: High Speed Adoption
 7th in the world and 6th in OECD in percentage of users with
  connections faster than 10 Mbps




                                                                 15
Speed: 100 Mbps Proliferation
82% of American homes are passed by DOCSIS
 3
  Capable of 100 – 160 Mbps
  DOCSIS 3.1 will be even faster

Vectored DSL may soon bring a second 100
 Mbps service to the market

LTE Advanced is another possible 100 Mbps pipe
                                              16
Price: Overall
Entry-level pricing for American
 broadband is the second lowest in
 the OECD and fourth lowest in
 ITU survey

U.S. rank in prices for higher speeds
 is lower
                                         18
0.0%
                     0.1%
                     0.2%
                     0.3%
                     0.4%
                     0.5%
                     0.6%
                     0.8%
                     0.9%

                     0.7%
           Macao     1.0%
          Monaco
            Israel
     United States
     Liechtenstein
      San Marino
     Luxembourg
      Switzerland
       Hong Kong
          Canada
          Norway
              UK
          Belgium
            Japan
                            Price: Low Entry-Level Prices




         Romania
          Sweden
      Netherlands
           France
         Denmark
        Singapore
19
Price: Benkler’s Pricing Insight




                                   20
Factors for Price: Low U.S. Subsidies
Low-price, high-speed nations have
 committed heavy subsidies to
 private firms

Despite subsidized fiber, Japan’s
 adoption level is no higher than ours

                                         22
Factors for Price: High Costs
America is an expensive nation to serve because
 of low overall urbanization and low-rise cities
  U.S. has 27th lowest rate of urbanicity (urban
   density) in the OECD
  Costs of broadband are Mbps/mile
  U.S. has to spend many more dollars per capita
   on cable and electronics to produce speedup
   effects than Japan, Korea, or Hong Kong

                                                    23
The Policy Battle
                    The railroad
                    corporations will
                    either own the
                    people or the
                    people must own
                    the railroads. –

                    Omaha
                    Platform, 1893
                                        24
Conclusions
U.S. is a facilities-based deployment leader in
 cable, fiber, and LTE

Korea and Singapore are adoption leaders

U.S. is isn’t far behind for computer-owning
 homes

                                                25
Conclusions – cont’d
Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, Netherlands, and
 Denmark are consistent speed leaders
  U. S. is in Top 10 and rising

U.S. is a low-price leader at entry-level, but U.S.
 prices are higher at the high end than most
 OECD nations
  Subsidies and urbanicity play a role, profits not
   so much
                                                       26
Issues to Tackle
Internet engagement, digital
 literacy, computer ownership
Subsidy programs for poor and rural
 residents, following Connect America model
Use of smart auctions to allocate subsidies
Spectrum remains scare due to government
 over-allocation

                                           27
Verdict
Neelie Kroes Wins




                     28
Thank You
 rbennett@itif.org
    Follow ITIF:
facebook.com/innovationpolicy
www.innovationfiles.org
www.youtube.com/techpolicy
www.itif.org
@iPolicy

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The Whole Picture: Where America’s Broadband Networks Really Stand

  • 1. February 12, 2013 The Whole Picture: Where America’s Broadband Networks Really Stand Richard Bennett Senior Research Fellow rbennett@itif.org
  • 2. Motivation for the Report  European Commission VP Neelie Kroes says U.S. is pulling ahead:  High speed networks now pass more than 80 percent of U.S. homes, a figure that quadrupled in three years  Though the public sector can help, the real heavy lifting must be done by private investment  American critics say we’re falling behind:  U.S. is 22nd and falling in broadband – Susan Crawford  U.S. in 29th place and falling fast – David Cay Johnson  Who’s right? 2
  • 3. Four Dimensions of Broadband Policy Deployment: What share of postal addresses does the network cover? Adoption: What share of households subscribe? Performance: How fast are downloads and uploads? Price: What does it cost to use the service? 3
  • 4. America’s Circumstances Long copper loop PSTN Cable TV system alongside the PSTN Low population density, especially in urban areas Plethora of entertainment choices, but low computer ownership Close to most key Internet resources Technology-flexible mobile policy 4
  • 5. Broad Deployment of DSL and Cable 96.3 percent have access to some form of wired broadband ~96 percent have access to cable modem ~85 percent have access to DSL ~18 percent have access to fiber 5
  • 6. DSL and Cable in OECD 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Cable deployment DSL deployment 6
  • 7. Broad Deployment of DSL and Cable Third highest rate of wired intermodal competition in OECD (behind Belgium and Netherlands) Fiber-based broadband (FiOS and U-verse) is growing faster than cable modem Long-loop DSL is losing subscribers Market share is 57% cable, 43% telco 7
  • 8. Intense Fiber Installation America is installing more fiber optic cable than all of Europe 8
  • 10. America Leads in 4G/LTE America leads the world in the adoption of 4G/LTE mobile broadband Only Korea is close Very helpful for rural broadband 10
  • 11. Adoption Remains an Issue Broadband adoption is not as high as we would like it to be, but:  U. S.: 68.2%  EU-15: 66.9% Adoption is best measured by computer-owning homes  U. S.: 88.6%  EU-15: 85.9% Spread between top nation Iceland and U.S. for computer homes is less than 5% 11
  • 12. High Adoption by Computer Homes  88.6% adoption by U.S. computer-owning homes 12
  • 13. Reasons for Non-Adoption 6% 6% 10% Other 12% Availability Price 18% No Computer Usability Relevance 48% Source: Pew survey: Americans’ main reasons for not using the Internet, 2010 13
  • 14. Speed: Overall  Traditional Speed leaders:  Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, Netherlands, and Denmark  U. S. average network (peak) rate is 29.6 Mbps  Top 10 Nations are less than 10 Mbps ahead  Average peak for the other Top 10 nations is 37.9 Mbps  American speeds are improving faster than world- leading speeds. 14
  • 15. Speed: High Speed Adoption  7th in the world and 6th in OECD in percentage of users with connections faster than 10 Mbps 15
  • 16. Speed: 100 Mbps Proliferation 82% of American homes are passed by DOCSIS 3  Capable of 100 – 160 Mbps  DOCSIS 3.1 will be even faster Vectored DSL may soon bring a second 100 Mbps service to the market LTE Advanced is another possible 100 Mbps pipe 16
  • 17.
  • 18. Price: Overall Entry-level pricing for American broadband is the second lowest in the OECD and fourth lowest in ITU survey U.S. rank in prices for higher speeds is lower 18
  • 19. 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.9% 0.7% Macao 1.0% Monaco Israel United States Liechtenstein San Marino Luxembourg Switzerland Hong Kong Canada Norway UK Belgium Japan Price: Low Entry-Level Prices Romania Sweden Netherlands France Denmark Singapore 19
  • 21.
  • 22. Factors for Price: Low U.S. Subsidies Low-price, high-speed nations have committed heavy subsidies to private firms Despite subsidized fiber, Japan’s adoption level is no higher than ours 22
  • 23. Factors for Price: High Costs America is an expensive nation to serve because of low overall urbanization and low-rise cities  U.S. has 27th lowest rate of urbanicity (urban density) in the OECD  Costs of broadband are Mbps/mile  U.S. has to spend many more dollars per capita on cable and electronics to produce speedup effects than Japan, Korea, or Hong Kong 23
  • 24. The Policy Battle The railroad corporations will either own the people or the people must own the railroads. – Omaha Platform, 1893 24
  • 25. Conclusions U.S. is a facilities-based deployment leader in cable, fiber, and LTE Korea and Singapore are adoption leaders U.S. is isn’t far behind for computer-owning homes 25
  • 26. Conclusions – cont’d Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, Netherlands, and Denmark are consistent speed leaders  U. S. is in Top 10 and rising U.S. is a low-price leader at entry-level, but U.S. prices are higher at the high end than most OECD nations  Subsidies and urbanicity play a role, profits not so much 26
  • 27. Issues to Tackle Internet engagement, digital literacy, computer ownership Subsidy programs for poor and rural residents, following Connect America model Use of smart auctions to allocate subsidies Spectrum remains scare due to government over-allocation 27
  • 29. Thank You rbennett@itif.org Follow ITIF: facebook.com/innovationpolicy www.innovationfiles.org www.youtube.com/techpolicy www.itif.org @iPolicy