Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability in Food Systems
1. Climate Change 2022
Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
in Food Systems
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
April 28, 2023 , IPCC outreach event, Bangkok, Thailand
Key messages from Ch 5 Food, fibre and other ecosystem products
Dr. Toshi Hasegawa, Coordinating Lead Author
2. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
• Increasing extreme events have put millions of people at risk of acute food
insecurity, particularly in Africa, Asia, Central and South America, Small
Islands and the Arctic.
• Human-induced climate change has slowed the agricultural growth over the
past 50 years globally with regionally different impacts.
• Vulnerable groups, such as women, children, low-income households,
Indigenous or other minority groups and small-scale producers, are often at
higher risk of malnutrition, livelihood loss, rising costs and competition over
resources.
Compared with the previous report, more robust & widespread evidence of observed
impacts, particularly around climate-related hazards
3. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Multiple climate hazards cause multiple impacts,
interacting to compound risks to food security,
nutrition and human health.
• Simultaneous reductions in food production
across crops, livestock, and fisheries
• Heat- related loss of labour productivity
• Increased food contamination from toxins
• Cascading impacts on food prices and
household incomes, and reduced access to
safe and nutritious food
Greater evidence of complex & cascading events undermining food security and nutrition
4. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Action on adaptation has increased
Effective options:
• Cultivar improvements
• Agroforestry
• Farm and landscape diversification
• Community-based adaptation
• Strengthening biodiversity
Wider benefits:
• Food security and nutrition
• Health and well-being
• Livelihoods
[Jacquelyn Turner / CCAFS CC BY-NC-SA 2.0; FAO / Riccardo De Luca]
5. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
More evidence of adaptation limits, maladaptation and financial constraints
Limits to adaptation
Even effective adaptation
cannot prevent all losses
and damages, and limits
will be reached at higher
levels of global warming.
e.g.
• By 2°C it will be challenging
to farm multiple staple crops
in many current growing
areas.
Financial constraints
• Current global financial flows
are insufficient
• Most finance targets
emissions reductions rather
than adaptation
• Climate impacts can slow
down economic growth
Maladaptation
Adaptation that results in
unintended consequences. The
most disadvantaged groups are
most affected.
e.g.
• Large-scale and/or groundwater-
dependent irrigation projects or
programs can reduce long-term
availability and increase salinity
and water costs.
6. “There are increasing gaps
between adaptation action taken
and what’s needed.
These gaps are largest among
lower income populations.
They are expected to grow.
7. “To avoid mounting losses, urgent
action is required to adapt to
climate change.
At the same time, it is essential to
make rapid, deep cuts in greenhouse
gas emissions to keep the maximum
number of adaptation options open.
8. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
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For More Information: Follow Us:
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Dr. Toshi Hasegawa
National Agriculture and Food Research Organization (NARO)
thase@affrc.go.jp
#IPCCReport
Editor's Notes
The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change which focuses on climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability.
What we see here is an example of how heat and drought combine to cause reductions in crop yields, made worse by reduced productivity because of heat stress among farm workers.
Reduced yields lead to reductions in household incomes, increased food prices locally and, potentially globally, affecting food trade.
These interacting impacts will lead to health risks of malnutrition and climate-related mortality, especially in tropical regions.
Risks to food safety from climate change will further compound the risks to health by increasing food contamination of crops from mycotoxins and contamination of seafood from harmful algal blooms, mycotoxins, and chemical contaminants. Weather and climate extremes are causing economic and societal impacts across national boundaries through supply-chains, markets, and natural resource flows, with increasing transboundary risks projected across the water, energy and food sectors.
Since the previous report, significantly more evidence has become available on adaptation action and planning.Food security can be enhanced by making the food system more resilient, for example through adopting stress-tolerant crops and livestock, agroforestry and diversification on farms.
Community-based adaptation that is locally driven, that respects local and Indigenous knowledge systems, and is adequately resourced can also be effective.
Strengthening biodiversity can improve pest control, pollination, carbon storage and it can provide shade for temperature-sensitive crops such as coffee and cacao.
This all brings a range of other benefits for nutrition, health and wellbeing and livelihoods.
We know that there are adaptation limits. Adaptation cannot prevent all losses and damages, and even with effective adaptation, limits will be reached with higher levels of warming.
Some natural solutions will no longer work above 1.5C warming.
Above 1.5C a lack of freshwater could mean that people living on small islands and those dependent on glaciers and snowmelt can no longer adapt.
And by 2C it may be especially challenging to farm multiple staple crops in many current growing areas, particularly in tropical regions.
We have evidence of maladaptation – adaptation that results in unintended consequences, for example increased climate-related risks, or increased greenhouse gas emissions.
Large-scale, groundwater-dependent irrigation projects or programs: may reduce long-term availability and increase salinity and water costs.
Climate change-induced migration: may increase the workload of those left behind (often women), exacerbating rural livelihoods and food insecurity. It can lead to insecure urban living conditions, food security, and poverty, and can increase vulnerability to flooding in urban areas.
Installation of coastal revetments, levees, canals, riverbed drainage, and embankments to reduce flood risk: may be effective in the short term, but in the long term may lead to degradation of coastal ecosystems, depletion of open freshwater fisheries, river sedimentation, reduced fish diversity, increased flood risk to certain vulnerable populations, and reduced support for other more sustainable measures
The most disadvantaged groups are most affected by maladaptation.
Indigenous Peoples, ethnic minorities and disadvantaged groups – for example low-income households and those living in informal settlements – are some of the most affected by maladaptation.
This reinforces and entrenches existing inequity.
If we focus on financial constraints, we see that current global financial flows are insufficient, especially in developing countries. The overwhelming majority of global-tracked climate finance was targeted at emissions reductions while a small proportion went on adaptation.
Climate impacts that result in higher levels of losses and damages also slow down economic growth and thus reduce the availability of financial resources.
HANS
However, there are increasing gaps between adaptation action taken and what’s needed.
These gaps are largest among lower income populations.
At the current rate of planning and implementation, these adaptation gaps will continue to grow.
HANS
To avoid mounting losses, urgent action is required to adapt to climate change. But that’s not enough.
At the same time, it is essential to make rapid, deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions to keep the maximum number of adaptation options open.
