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Syndicate 5 (Ape Syndicate)
           Yuliana Irmina             29110389
           Decky Prasakti             29110391
           Resti Athayani             29110402
           Lamya Nur Zahidah          29110406
           Harry Riusxander           29110408
           Wisnumurti Rahardjo        29110412
           Ronaldo Bagus Putra        29110404




      Ethan Berman at
RiskMetrics Group (A)
Origins of RMG at JP Morgan

• RMG started as an in-house division of
  JP Morgan, institutional investment
  bank.
• 1990, Dennis Weatherstone, Chair of
  Morgan  concise the daily report that
  measured the company’s proprietary
  risk at the end of each day
Origins of RMG at JP Morgan
• 1994, Morgan made their RiskMetrics database
  available gratis to their clients, the reasons are :
• Make market risk more obvious & apparent to
  investors & manager
• Make risk management tools available to users
  who lacked the resources to develop their own
  systems
• Established their var system as the industry
  standard
Spinning off
Mid 1990, investment banks were closing down their risk-
management groups because of concern over liability



October 1998, the RMG spunout from JP Morgan, its board of
directors consisted of Steve Thieke (from Morgan), Krishna
Biltoo (from Reuters), and two employee seats (one filled by
Berman)

A condition of spin off was that all employees would be
shareholders in the company
ETHAN BERMAN

 He studied in London, was an artist in Paris, was a
  businessperson in New York and Tokyo.
 Graduated from Williams College as a theater
  and psychology double-major
 Berman made Managing Director at J.P Morgan in
  New York, trading zero-coupn bonds and options
 From a stint in India, he proposed a business plan
 for a risk management group at Morgan
 Berman brought his drive and passion to
 RiskMetrics, inspiring the same in his employees.
THE BUSINESS OF RISKMETRICS GROUP




 By mid-1990s, corporation faced heightened
global competition, increased financial risk,
exposure and individuals managed their own
assets through online brokerages, banking
service, and financial planning tools.
THE BUSINESS OF RISKMETRICS GROUP


    Many players in the risk management software industry
     differentiated themselves with a variety of approach to
     account for and measure risk exposure, as :
       • Industry giant Algorithmics, used VaR calculations
       • BARRA, used beta measures
    The important way in which they distinguished themselves
     was in size of clients they sought and the range of services
     offered
    Success in the industry was predicted upon brand
     exposure, client relations and benchmark products, all
     factors that were up for grabs at the time of RiskMetrics
     spin-off from Morgan
THE BUSINESS OF RISKMETRICS GROUP




   By the end of the 1990s, large financial service
   firms routinely :
        invested in foreign markets
        Understanding the risk implications of such
          investments was critical
       Becoming more so as the “global economy”
         came into being
Culture
• Riskmetrics have a friendly, comfortable, and
  family environment

• People have a high morale

• Every decision discussed at a consensus driven
  meeting with brainstorming, which the entire
  company participated
Forming an Organization
• There is a meeting for discuss current issues and make
  consensus base decisions
• 7 company’s visionary :
    Ability to make decisions with few necessary information
    Organization need to be become bad news organization
    Innovative companies must be willing to cannibalize their
     existing business
    Create strong and consistent messages
    Maintain our culture
    Delivery of the product
    Information is power
Forming an Organization

• Organized into six working department
  Research : designing the model and methodologies
   used in their risk products
  Product management : responsible to managing the
   flow of the product from initial development to the
   client
  Software development :programming core of the
   firms
  Data
  Sales : sought new clients
  Administration : do administrative things
• Business philosophy  Provide high-quality
  service (efficient, low cost) to build long-
  lasting client relations.
• Business Model
       Short-term software leasing.
       Educating client
• Product  Risk Manager, Credit Metrics,
  Corporate Metrics.
The First Year Anniversary
• Anniversary event  Combine art
  exhibition with multiday client event “get
  client into our office, and explain our
  product       and     delivery    schedule”
  “communicate our mission and message to
  client and give each other feedback”
• Revenue were $6million and hired 40 new
  people at R&D.
• RMG management style and lack of a
  formal structure was hindering the firm’s
  long-term growth and revenue.
The Problem of The
 Berman was unclear as
  to how he should go                              Senior Hire
about the hiring process.
     There are three           An “Ethan-Clone”
 possibilities for senior      more vision, more
poses could be needed :     ideas, great at inspiring
                             others both in closing
                              deals and talking to
                                     clients              An Expert

 A “Day-to-day Manager”                                 someone highly
                                                          experience in
                                                        sales, marketing,
     more detail and                                       and product
     process oriented                                       promotion
The Problem of The
                 Senior Hire
• Berman worried that instituting a second
  level of management would force him
  away from current relationship with his
  employees.
• At last, Berman arranged an informal
  hiring committee, selected unofficial
  representative from each of the six
  working groups to discuss the goals in
  making new senior hires and interview
  possible candidates.
Strategic Decision for 2000
 There are a number of different paths along Berman could
 take the firm:

Continue to market their risk management software to
medium-sized firms and develop new products for their
institutional clients
1. A significant shift in corporate focus

   2. More aggressive business strategy to grow the firm

3. A change with which not all employees were comfortable

            4. Firm’s ability to enter new arena

                5. IPO plan within next year

      6. Do the firm “Get it right” and “Get big fast”?
ANALYSIS
Risk Identification
No Risk                         Cause                        Category
1   Slow decision making        Inability of employees       Business
2   Slow software development   Inability of employees       Business
3   Loss market                 Competitor’s online system   Business
4   Loss sales                  Cracked software             Business
                                Lack of marketing strategy
5   Employee turnover           Lack of career path          Human resource
6   Hiring process              Company’s culture            Human Resource
7   Lack of funds               Loss of net income           Financial
                                Bigger sales cost
Severity
Score   Indicator
5       Bankcruptcy
4       Bigger debt or loss
3       Decreasing market share
2       Instability of company’s performance
1       Not growing performance




Probability
                       Score   Indicator
                       5       <= Weekly
                       4       Monthly
                       3       Quarterly
                       2       Semester
                       1       >= Yearly
Risk Scoring
No                     Risk                Severity   Probability   Score
1     Slow decision making                     2          4           8
2     Slow software development                3          3           9
3     Loss market                              3          4          12
4     Loss sales                               4          5          20
5     Employee turnover                        2          4           8
6     Hiring process                           1          3           3
7     Lack of funds                            5          1           5




Risk Category
    Score          Category       Information
1–5          Low Risk             Risk Tolerance
6 – 10       Medium Risk
11 – 15      High Risk
16 – 25      Very High Risk
RISK MAP

    Severity                                         No   Risk
5                                                    1    Slow decision making
         7
                                                     2    Slow software development
4                       3                        4   3    Loss market

                                                     4    Loss sales
3
                        2                            5    Employee turnover

                                                     6    Hiring process
2                                    1   5
                                                     7    Lack of funds

1
                        6

     1         2   3             4           5
                   Probability
Mitigation
               Hire new executive officer
    Severity                                            No   Risk
5                                                       1    Slow decision making
         7
                                                        2    Slow software development
4                             3            4            3    Loss market

                                                        4    Loss sales
3
                   2                                    5    Employee turnover

                                                        6    Hiring process
2                  1                       5
                                                        7    Lack of funds

1
                              6

     1         2          3            4       5
                         Probability
Mitigation
         Go to online system and long term contract
    Severity                                                  No   Risk
5                                                             1    Slow decision making

                                                              2    Slow software development
4          3         4                                        3    Loss market

                                                              4    Loss sales
3
          7                     2                             5    Employee turnover

                                                              6    Hiring process
2                                            1   5
                                                              7    Lack of funds

1
                                6

     1           2          3            4           5
                           Probability
Mitigation
     Employee’s contract and additional career path
    Severity                                              No   Risk
5                                                         1    Slow decision making
             7
                                                          2    Slow software development
4                             3                       4   3    Loss market

                                                          4    Loss sales
3
                              2                           5    Employee turnover

                                                          6    Hiring process
2        5                                 1
                                                          7    Lack of funds

1
                              6

     1           2        3            4       5
                         Probability
Mitigation
         Knowledge sharing and benchmarking
    Severity                                              No   Risk
5                                                         1    Slow decision making
         7
                                                          2    Slow software development
4                                                    4    3    Loss market

                                                          4    Loss sales
3
                                                          5    Employee turnover

                                                          6    Hiring process
2                            3           1
                                                          7    Lack of funds

1
                         2    6              5

     1         2        3            4           5
                       Probability
After Mitigation - Risk Map
    Severity
                                              No   Risk
5
                                              1    Slow decision making

4                                             2    Slow software development
         4
                                              3    Loss market

3                                             4    Loss sales
         7
                                              5    Employee turnover
2        3          1                         6    Hiring process

                                              7    Lack of funds
1
         5          2        6

     1          2       3             4   5
                        Probability
RECOMMENDATION

Hire new executive officer


Go to online system and
  long term contract

Employee’s contract and
 additional career path

 Knowledge sharing and
    benchmarking
Lesson learned
• Identification of risk is a systematic effort to determine
  the threat to the project plan. The goal is to avoid risks
  whenever possible, and avoid it at any time necessary.

• Identification of risk accurately and completely is vital
  in risk management. One important aspect in the
  identification of risk is a list of possible risks as much
  as possible.

• All investment activities create risk exposures, but the
  risk types and levels depend upon the activity
  conducted.
• Effective investment activity oversight requires accurate risk
  measurement. Without periodic assessments, management can
  not determine the success of its investment strategies.

• Risk measurement should be tailored to the cash flow
  characteristics of each particular instrument type.

• The determination of the probability of occurrence of an event
  is more subjective and based on reason and experience.

• Some risk is easy to measure, but it is difficult to ascertain the
  probability of an event is extremely rare.
• Risk mitigation is a systematic reduction in the extent
  of exposure to a risk and/or the likelihood of its
  occurrence. Also called risk reduction.
• Risk mitigation is usually carried out in compliance
  with the lowest cost approach (least-cost approach) and
  implement the control or the most appropriate control
  (the most Appropriate controls) so as to reduce the risk
  to the acceptable level with the most minimal risk
  (minimal adverse impact) on resources and
  organizational objectives.
Risk Analysis of RiskMetrics Group

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Risk Analysis of RiskMetrics Group

  • 1. Syndicate 5 (Ape Syndicate) Yuliana Irmina 29110389 Decky Prasakti 29110391 Resti Athayani 29110402 Lamya Nur Zahidah 29110406 Harry Riusxander 29110408 Wisnumurti Rahardjo 29110412 Ronaldo Bagus Putra 29110404 Ethan Berman at RiskMetrics Group (A)
  • 2. Origins of RMG at JP Morgan • RMG started as an in-house division of JP Morgan, institutional investment bank. • 1990, Dennis Weatherstone, Chair of Morgan  concise the daily report that measured the company’s proprietary risk at the end of each day
  • 3. Origins of RMG at JP Morgan • 1994, Morgan made their RiskMetrics database available gratis to their clients, the reasons are : • Make market risk more obvious & apparent to investors & manager • Make risk management tools available to users who lacked the resources to develop their own systems • Established their var system as the industry standard
  • 4. Spinning off Mid 1990, investment banks were closing down their risk- management groups because of concern over liability October 1998, the RMG spunout from JP Morgan, its board of directors consisted of Steve Thieke (from Morgan), Krishna Biltoo (from Reuters), and two employee seats (one filled by Berman) A condition of spin off was that all employees would be shareholders in the company
  • 5. ETHAN BERMAN  He studied in London, was an artist in Paris, was a businessperson in New York and Tokyo.  Graduated from Williams College as a theater and psychology double-major  Berman made Managing Director at J.P Morgan in New York, trading zero-coupn bonds and options  From a stint in India, he proposed a business plan for a risk management group at Morgan  Berman brought his drive and passion to RiskMetrics, inspiring the same in his employees.
  • 6. THE BUSINESS OF RISKMETRICS GROUP  By mid-1990s, corporation faced heightened global competition, increased financial risk, exposure and individuals managed their own assets through online brokerages, banking service, and financial planning tools.
  • 7. THE BUSINESS OF RISKMETRICS GROUP  Many players in the risk management software industry differentiated themselves with a variety of approach to account for and measure risk exposure, as : • Industry giant Algorithmics, used VaR calculations • BARRA, used beta measures  The important way in which they distinguished themselves was in size of clients they sought and the range of services offered  Success in the industry was predicted upon brand exposure, client relations and benchmark products, all factors that were up for grabs at the time of RiskMetrics spin-off from Morgan
  • 8. THE BUSINESS OF RISKMETRICS GROUP By the end of the 1990s, large financial service firms routinely :  invested in foreign markets  Understanding the risk implications of such investments was critical Becoming more so as the “global economy” came into being
  • 9. Culture • Riskmetrics have a friendly, comfortable, and family environment • People have a high morale • Every decision discussed at a consensus driven meeting with brainstorming, which the entire company participated
  • 10. Forming an Organization • There is a meeting for discuss current issues and make consensus base decisions • 7 company’s visionary :  Ability to make decisions with few necessary information  Organization need to be become bad news organization  Innovative companies must be willing to cannibalize their existing business  Create strong and consistent messages  Maintain our culture  Delivery of the product  Information is power
  • 11. Forming an Organization • Organized into six working department Research : designing the model and methodologies used in their risk products Product management : responsible to managing the flow of the product from initial development to the client Software development :programming core of the firms Data Sales : sought new clients Administration : do administrative things
  • 12. • Business philosophy  Provide high-quality service (efficient, low cost) to build long- lasting client relations. • Business Model  Short-term software leasing.  Educating client • Product  Risk Manager, Credit Metrics, Corporate Metrics.
  • 13. The First Year Anniversary • Anniversary event  Combine art exhibition with multiday client event “get client into our office, and explain our product and delivery schedule” “communicate our mission and message to client and give each other feedback” • Revenue were $6million and hired 40 new people at R&D. • RMG management style and lack of a formal structure was hindering the firm’s long-term growth and revenue.
  • 14. The Problem of The Berman was unclear as to how he should go Senior Hire about the hiring process. There are three An “Ethan-Clone” possibilities for senior more vision, more poses could be needed : ideas, great at inspiring others both in closing deals and talking to clients An Expert A “Day-to-day Manager” someone highly experience in sales, marketing, more detail and and product process oriented promotion
  • 15. The Problem of The Senior Hire • Berman worried that instituting a second level of management would force him away from current relationship with his employees. • At last, Berman arranged an informal hiring committee, selected unofficial representative from each of the six working groups to discuss the goals in making new senior hires and interview possible candidates.
  • 16. Strategic Decision for 2000 There are a number of different paths along Berman could take the firm: Continue to market their risk management software to medium-sized firms and develop new products for their institutional clients
  • 17. 1. A significant shift in corporate focus 2. More aggressive business strategy to grow the firm 3. A change with which not all employees were comfortable 4. Firm’s ability to enter new arena 5. IPO plan within next year 6. Do the firm “Get it right” and “Get big fast”?
  • 19. Risk Identification No Risk Cause Category 1 Slow decision making Inability of employees Business 2 Slow software development Inability of employees Business 3 Loss market Competitor’s online system Business 4 Loss sales Cracked software Business Lack of marketing strategy 5 Employee turnover Lack of career path Human resource 6 Hiring process Company’s culture Human Resource 7 Lack of funds Loss of net income Financial Bigger sales cost
  • 20. Severity Score Indicator 5 Bankcruptcy 4 Bigger debt or loss 3 Decreasing market share 2 Instability of company’s performance 1 Not growing performance Probability Score Indicator 5 <= Weekly 4 Monthly 3 Quarterly 2 Semester 1 >= Yearly
  • 21. Risk Scoring No Risk Severity Probability Score 1 Slow decision making 2 4 8 2 Slow software development 3 3 9 3 Loss market 3 4 12 4 Loss sales 4 5 20 5 Employee turnover 2 4 8 6 Hiring process 1 3 3 7 Lack of funds 5 1 5 Risk Category Score Category Information 1–5 Low Risk Risk Tolerance 6 – 10 Medium Risk 11 – 15 High Risk 16 – 25 Very High Risk
  • 22. RISK MAP Severity No Risk 5 1 Slow decision making 7 2 Slow software development 4 3 4 3 Loss market 4 Loss sales 3 2 5 Employee turnover 6 Hiring process 2 1 5 7 Lack of funds 1 6 1 2 3 4 5 Probability
  • 23. Mitigation Hire new executive officer Severity No Risk 5 1 Slow decision making 7 2 Slow software development 4 3 4 3 Loss market 4 Loss sales 3 2 5 Employee turnover 6 Hiring process 2 1 5 7 Lack of funds 1 6 1 2 3 4 5 Probability
  • 24. Mitigation Go to online system and long term contract Severity No Risk 5 1 Slow decision making 2 Slow software development 4 3 4 3 Loss market 4 Loss sales 3 7 2 5 Employee turnover 6 Hiring process 2 1 5 7 Lack of funds 1 6 1 2 3 4 5 Probability
  • 25. Mitigation Employee’s contract and additional career path Severity No Risk 5 1 Slow decision making 7 2 Slow software development 4 3 4 3 Loss market 4 Loss sales 3 2 5 Employee turnover 6 Hiring process 2 5 1 7 Lack of funds 1 6 1 2 3 4 5 Probability
  • 26. Mitigation Knowledge sharing and benchmarking Severity No Risk 5 1 Slow decision making 7 2 Slow software development 4 4 3 Loss market 4 Loss sales 3 5 Employee turnover 6 Hiring process 2 3 1 7 Lack of funds 1 2 6 5 1 2 3 4 5 Probability
  • 27. After Mitigation - Risk Map Severity No Risk 5 1 Slow decision making 4 2 Slow software development 4 3 Loss market 3 4 Loss sales 7 5 Employee turnover 2 3 1 6 Hiring process 7 Lack of funds 1 5 2 6 1 2 3 4 5 Probability
  • 28. RECOMMENDATION Hire new executive officer Go to online system and long term contract Employee’s contract and additional career path Knowledge sharing and benchmarking
  • 29. Lesson learned • Identification of risk is a systematic effort to determine the threat to the project plan. The goal is to avoid risks whenever possible, and avoid it at any time necessary. • Identification of risk accurately and completely is vital in risk management. One important aspect in the identification of risk is a list of possible risks as much as possible. • All investment activities create risk exposures, but the risk types and levels depend upon the activity conducted.
  • 30. • Effective investment activity oversight requires accurate risk measurement. Without periodic assessments, management can not determine the success of its investment strategies. • Risk measurement should be tailored to the cash flow characteristics of each particular instrument type. • The determination of the probability of occurrence of an event is more subjective and based on reason and experience. • Some risk is easy to measure, but it is difficult to ascertain the probability of an event is extremely rare.
  • 31. • Risk mitigation is a systematic reduction in the extent of exposure to a risk and/or the likelihood of its occurrence. Also called risk reduction. • Risk mitigation is usually carried out in compliance with the lowest cost approach (least-cost approach) and implement the control or the most appropriate control (the most Appropriate controls) so as to reduce the risk to the acceptable level with the most minimal risk (minimal adverse impact) on resources and organizational objectives.