In the face of current conflict in Eastern Ukraine, global business leaders are returning to discussions about managing global operations during geopolitical crises. Speaking at the IAOP (International Association of Outsourcing Professionals) Chicago Chapter meeting on July 17th 2014 at DePaul University, Boris Kontsevoi, president and founder of Intetics, a global IT outsourcing and software development company in USA, Germany and Eastern Europe, discussed the impacts geopolitical conflicts have on global business. He analyzed the risks and opportunities the current conflict in Ukraine may bring to providers and outsourcing buyers worldwide. Despite the crisis in Ukraine, the IT sector in industry is staying strong, and is likely to bounce back if the hostilities stop soon. The presentation further describes the relationship between business and geopolitical issues, reviews risks of political instability and suggests several geopolitical risk management strategies. Relying on previous lessons learned from geopolitical issues in places such as India, it becomes clear that the best strategy is to choose a trustworthy company as an outsourcing partner to prevent interference of politics and global business. For more information contact Boris or Intetics at www.intetics.com.

1. WHERE SOFTWARE CONCEPTS COME ALIVE
Outsourcing operations
during political instability
Current business climate in Ukraine and beyond
Copyright © 2014 Intetics Co.

2. AGENDA: IT OUTSOURCING IN POLITICAL INSTABILITY – UKRAINE
Geopolitical concerns: What’s
at stake?
Geopolitical risk management
Lessons from history
Ukraine business climate
Ukraine IT
Crisis impact: fears,
opportunities, future
Closing thoughts

3. SPEAKER: BORIS KONTSEVOI
Founder and President of Intetics Co., IT
outsourcing and software development company
Certified Outsourcing Professional
Speaking at IAOP Chicago Chapter Meeting,
Thursday July 17th 2014
Twitter: @BorisKontsevoi
LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/boriskontsevoi
XING:
https://www.xing.com/profile/Boris_Kontsevoi

4. Established in 1995
Over 450 full time employees
About 130 “crowd” contractors
Customers in 30+ countries
200+ successful projects
INTETICS: IT OUTSOURCING AND SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT COMPANY
Head Office: Chicago, IL
Global Locations:
Düsseldorf, Germany
Tokyo, Japan
Delivery Centers:
Minsk, Belarus
Kyiv, Ukraine
Kharkiv, Ukraine2006-2014 Top Outsourcing 100
2007-2014 Global Services 100
2009-2014 Software 500
2008-2014 Inc 500/5000
2010 European IT Excellence Award
2014 EOA Best Project Award

5. BUSINESS & GEOPOLITICAL CRISES: WHAT’S AT STAKE?
2013 Philippine typhoon: Power outages & delays
“IT-BP operations in the cities of Cebu, Iloilo, and Dumaguete [were]
suspended in preparation for the typhoon. Temporary power outages
and disruption in telecommunications infrastructure led to higher
absenteeism in these cities. Flight connectivity was hampered with the
cancellation of a number of domestic and international flights.”
– Everest Group
2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks: Need for contingency plans
Attacks “will not affect outsourcing, but it is a concern that points to
the prevailing bad condition of Indo-Pak relations; companies need to
assess the risks and make sure they are outlined in their contracts”
– Alsbridge
2014 Ukraine crisis: Falling sales
“It definitely affected the industry. Even though the clients are
sympathetic of what’s going on, and they kind of trust what we say to
them, we did notice that there is a fall in pre-sales.”
- Ciklum, Ukraine

6. BUSINESS & GEOPOLITICAL CRISES: WHAT’S AT STAKE?
Egypt’s Uprisings: Internet shut-off
“When the first response of the government, in times of political crisis, is to shut
down the Web, this has a massive impact on the nation's global sourcing
infrastructure to support global businesses.”
– Phil Fersht, HfS Research
Japan-China island dispute: Limited trade
“As many as 60% of China’s corporate leaders [are] unwilling to do business with
Japanese firms, according to a new poll. Only 13% of Chinese businessmen said that
they were able to separate their work from the current political tensions.”
– Telegraph.co.uk
Argentina debt restructuring: Default?
“If Argentina defaults, the country would be completely excluded from the financial
markets. There would be devaluation, inflation, unemployment, and economic
activity would go down,”
– Marcos Leonetti, economist, La Economia Online
USA-Mexico travel restrictions: Dangerous travel
“U.S. citizens have been the target of violent crimes, such as kidnapping,
carjacking, and robbery by TCOs in various Mexican states.”
–US Department of State

7. BUSINESS & GEOPOLITICAL CRISES: WHAT’S AT STAKE?
How do geopolitical risks affect offshore investors?
Project management:
Project deliverables & workforce productivity
Talent shortage & brain drain
Data loss & security
Communication & connectivity problems
Strategic planning:
Necessary awareness of political risks
Creation of contingency plans
Preventative contract clauses
Financial concerns:
Increased costs
Unexpected transition costs
Canceled projects
Loss of investment
Presence in unstable markets:
Foreign seizure & policy risk (graph)
Opaque policy-making equivalent to 33%
increase in taxation
Loss of communications (like Internet) Emerging markets: Since 1980, foreign companies experience less
seizures, but more political risks like regulatory action

8. BUSINESS & GEOPOLITICAL CRISES: WHAT’S AT STAKE?
Internet communication:
Technological base for
outsourcing and globalization
Internet cables have become as
important as oil pipelines
… raising similar
geopolitical concerns
Location and access to cables
depends on diplomatic relations
with other countries
Implications for big cloud data
centers?
(Google just finished building a
huge one in Finland)
First Internet infrastructure was laid in mid-20th century
Countries with capability of shutting down
national internet:
Russia, China, Syria, Egypt, Iran, Libya,
Maldives, Nepal, Burma, North Korea,
Turkey

9. GEOPOLITICAL RISK MANAGEMENT
“To remain a global
player today, a firm
must be able to
survive not only
economic downturns,
but also geopolitical
shocks.”
– Sven Behrendt &
Parag Khanna
World Economic Forum advisors
“With the political situation between
_______________ tense, analysts
[are] warning clients that have
outsourced operations to ______
companies to ensure they not only
have thorough contingency plans in
place, but that they are in "constant
communication with their vendors" to
make sure that those plans are "viable
and can be executed immediately".
– Information Age, 20__

10. GEOPOLITICAL RISK MANAGEMENT
“With the political situation between
Pakistan and India tense, analysts
[are] warning clients that have
outsourced operations to Indian
companies to ensure they not only
have thorough contingency plans in
place, but that they are in "constant
communication with their vendors" to
make sure that those plans are "viable
and can be executed immediately".
– Information Age, 2006
What can we learn from
history?
How have companies
dealt with this before?

11. Some economic impact is to be expected, but it can be managed
Example: Historically, the India and Pakistan conflict has often
affected the levels of FDI flowing into the country
GEOPOLITICAL RISK MANAGEMENT
2001-02 India-Pakistan
standoff
Dec 2001 – June 2002,
escalation May 2002
26-29 Nov 2008 Mumbai
terrorist attacks
26-30 Dec 2008 conflict
escalation

12. But it seems that what matters most is the commercial partner,
not the geopolitical climate itself
Example:
Stock prices of Infosys and Wipro show no major divergences when compared to
NASDAQ during conflict escalation
GEOPOLITICAL RISK MANAGEMENT
2001-2002 India-Pakistan stand-off 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks

13. GEOPOLITICAL RISK MANAGEMENT
Actions within client’s
control:
Strong project management
Process orientation
Onsite knowledge retention
Good system documentation
Open communication with
vendor
All these things make it
easier to transfer work when
absolutely necessary
Biggest risk is for companies that are
unprepared (typically small companies)
Globalization requires companies to:
Define governance
Be aware of regional vulnerabilities
Protect information and technology
Preparation throughout outsourcing
lifecycle:
Define strategy & operating model
Develop solutions & proposals
translate goals into solution
scenarios; consider risks including
geopolitical risks
Evaluate deal & transactions
Manage transition
Manage relationship

14. UKRAINE: CURRENT SITUATION
Dec 2013-Feb 2014: Mass protests &
ousting of president
March: Annexation of Crimea by Russia
May 25th: Ukraine presidential
elections
July: Fighting in Eastern Ukraine
continues (map)
July 10th map of rebels and
gov’t forces:
Situation now better:
rebels fleeing from
gov’t offensive
Economic cost: Ukraine has borrowed
more money in 2014 than during the
2008 recession

15. UKRAINE: IT INDUSTRY
Talent
30,000 ICT graduates every year; 861 universities
47,000 professionals
4th country with most certified IT professionals
Industry growth
20-25% annual market growth (2013)
$1.3 US$ billion industry
Cost efficiency
Rates in IT are 42% of those in USA
Lower wages than EU members
Developer salaries range $18,000-$48,000 (after tax)
Government support
Intention to become “Silicon Valley of Europe”
Efforts to prevent brain drain; create 100,000 jobs by 2020
Expansion of tax benefits (currently: 5% tax rate for IT companies)
“Innovative Ukraine” initiative to improve IT education & industry

16. UKRAINE: CRISIS IMPACT ON INDUSTRY
Customers are more cautious
Asking about contingency plans & formulating transition strategy
Some are transitioning out of Ukraine and considering new locations
Observed drop in pre-sales and new contracts
Observed drop in stock prices for EPAM and Luxoft; with signs of recovery
“Some clients have voiced concerns over the situation in Ukraine, but queries from customers
tended to seek information on regional plans, rather than worries about the feasibility of
continuing to do business there.” - Luxoft, Ukraine

17. UKRAINE: FEARS & RISKS
Propaganda and “hybrid wars”
Continued instability perpetuated by war propaganda
“Infused” instability
Recession
Economic downturn after conflict
Political instability
IT market fragmentation
Population movement causing permanent fragmentation; small
companies increasingly unable to compete
Personnel shortage & brain drain
Fear of talent shortage caused by military draft
Immigration
Delivery interruption
Infrastructure damages
Developers fleeing troubled regions affect workflow
Monetary loss

18. UKRAINE: FEARS & RISKS
Information and data loss
Need for backup and recovery schemes
Availability of local hardware, connection and project management tools
Loss of bookkeeping, finance, legal support
Network & infrastructure security
Continued support and connection for production and delivery
Retain access to all parts of the system
Employee safety
Employees getting to work on time and unharmed
Communication plans in case of danger
Ability to work from home
Contingency plans
Is there a plan of action in case of imminent danger
What is the worst-case-scenario (at which point does production stop?)
Need to transition project
What are plans to transition work to other locations and assure delivery
continuation
Status of team and employees in case transition becomes necessary
(relocation vs. new team)
Time needed for relocation & restoration of production

19. UKRAINE: NEW OPPORTUNITIES
Fall of Hryvna
Dropping currency can become an extra advantage
(helped in India)
Best offshoring destination
Ukraine remains an attractive IT regions in CEE (provided the conflict is
resolved)
Increased government support
To avoid recession, new government is actively trying to support IT
market
Low attrition:
Developers might be more likely to stick with their jobs to avoid insecurity
Moving West-ward
Ukraine has been traditionally split between Russia and the West; Russia
over-stepping its boundaries might propel Ukraine to join the EU and look
to the West
“Traditional” EU acceptance transformation period with high volume of
FDI
Concentration on High-tech
Industry is likely to move further into high-tech development with new
funds from EU

20. UKRAINE: POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCES
Rapidly rising outsourcing location
Became prominent outsourcing location in last 5 years
Became “equal” to other locations like India, Latin America, China,
SEA, Africa
Developing trust…that’s now lost
Clients perceived adequate business conditions
After 25 years free of Soviet rule
Big business finally began to explore the region
First mega deal (EPAM & Barclays ODC for 700 people)
Long-term regional damage
Slower CAGR: mega deals will go elsewhere
Eastern Europe market share: still short/mid-term R&D projects
Puts the region back 10-20 years
Negative perception of Russia rose from 42% in 2013 to 72% in 2014
in US, from 54% to 74% in Europe

21. CLOSING THOUGHTS
Situation improving
Last week S&P changed Ukrainian rating from ‘CCC negative’ to ‘stable’
Rebels flee under Ukrainian government offensive
Rebel forces on May 20th 2014 Rebel forces on July 10th 2014

22. CLOSING THOUGHTS
Service delivery will continue
“Over the longer term -- the next three or more years -- the issues with Russia are unlikely to
have a significant impact on service delivery in Ukraine. Ukraine's proposition as a technology
service location is well-established, particularly for domain-intensive skills.”
— Salil Dani (Everest Group)
“Workers actually stepped up productivity this year, despite distractions. (Or maybe because of
those distractions.)” —Anthony Conte, EPAM Ukraine
Demand on the rise
The demand for talented software engineers is increasing
Very bright future for Ukraine, if situation de-escalates
People will realize it’s not Russia
IT organizations contract with companies, not countries
“IT organizations and CIOs don't contract and outsource to countries, they contract and
outsource to companies. Given that, it's time to stop assessing location-based risk in a vacuum
because sometimes the 'riskiest' suppliers may have the most innovative solutions.”
– Charles Green, Forrester Research
Businesses are politically agnostic
Locations & partners selected based on ROI
Ukraine will be able to provide attractive ROI for many companies even after conflict

23. 809 Ridge Rd. Suite 205
Wilmette, IL 60091
Tel : +1 (312) 625-5669
Fax : +1 (847) 256-3190
Email : contact@intetics.com
Questions?
Connect with Intetics:

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