Throughout 2014, ILC-UK, supported by specialist insurance company, Partnership Assurance Group plc, is undertaking a series of events to explore the relationship between our changing demography and public policy.
The fourth event in this 'Population Patterns Seminar Series' considered the findings of our ‘Factpack’ of UK demographic statistics.
We all know that people are living longer but how is that likely to change our society? How will pensions be affected? How will we care for our growing older society when the traditional “working age” population is shrinking?
These types of debates are increasingly being played out in the media and in political circles but in order for such debates to be productive, they have to be well informed.
ILC-UK believes its 2014 ‘Factpack’ will support this process by highlighting the most recent evidence of our rapidly ageing society. Not only does it provide statistics on a range of critical topics from life expectancy to housing supply; and pensions to long-term care, it also includes a special focus on the current and potential future state of pensioner poverty.
The event was chaired by Baroness Sally Greengross (ILC-UK) with a welcome from Steve Haberman (Dean of the Cass Business School). We were delighted that Gregg McClymont MP, Shadow Minister (Work and Pensions), spoke at at the launch event. We also heard presentations from Professor Les Mayhew (Professor of Statistics, Cass Business School), Steve Groves (Chief Executive of Partnership), Ben Franklin (Research Fellow at ILC-UK) and a response from Tom Younger of the Department for Work and Pensions.
During the discussion we explored:
How the UK’s demography has changed since the release of the 2013 Factpack and how it might change in the future,
How demographic change is reshaping our society,
The challenge of pensioner poverty,
Regional variations in the experiences of older people,
How policy makers should respond to these findings.
Agenda
16:00 - 16:30 Registration
16:30 - 16:35 Welcome by Chair, Baroness Sally Greengross (ILC-UK)
16:35 - 16:40 Welcome by the Dean of Cass Business School, Professor Stete Habberman
16:40 - 16:50 Presentation from Richard Willets (Partnership)
16:50 - 17:10 Presentation from Gregg McClymont MP (Shadow Minister for Work and Pensions)
17:10 - 17:20 Presentation from Ben Franklin (ILC-UK)
17:20 - 17:30 Presentation from Professor Les Mayhew (Cass Business School) Presentation
17:30 - 17:35 Response from Tom Younger (Department for Work and Pensions)
17:35 - 18:25 Discussion/Q&A
18:25 - 18:30 Close by Chair, Baroness Sally Greengross (ILC-UK)
18:30 - 19:15 Drinks reception
1. ILC-UK 2014 Factpack launch
A Population Patterns Seminar Series
event, supported by Partnership
Thursday 17th July 2014
This event is kindly hosted by
#populationpatterns
6. • Changes to the pension regime were announced in the March 2014 Budget
• Pensioners will have more choice in managing their finances in retirement
• Most people underestimate their likely lifespan in retirement
• The factpack highlights the fact that the oldest pensioners are most likely to
be in relative low income
• Steve Webb (Pensions Minister): people should be given estimates of how
long they are likely to live in retirement (April 2014)
• Agree – but ‘life expectancy’ is only an average
A further angle
July 14
6
7. Under-estimation of post-retirement lifespan
July 14
7
• Survey responses are based on research commissioned by Partnership (2014). Projected survival probabilities have been derived using the ONS ‘2012-based’ population projections for the UK.
Frequency distribution of expected lifespan (at age 65), UK females
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Up to 5
years
6 - 10
years
11 - 15
years
16 - 20
years
21 - 25
years
26 - 30
years
31 - 35
years
Over 35
years
Survey responses
Actual (projected)
8. Under-estimation of post-retirement lifespan
July 14
8
• Survey responses are based on research commissioned by Partnership (2014). Projected survival probabilities have been derived using the ONS ‘2012-based’ population projections for the UK.
Frequency distribution of expected lifespan (at age 65), UK females
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Up to 5
years
6 - 10
years
11 - 15
years
16 - 20
years
21 - 25
years
26 - 30
years
31 - 35
years
Over 35
years
Survey responses
Actual (projected)
9. • The most common survey response was 16-20 years – however the most
likely lifespan in retirement is 29 years
• 14% of survey respondents thought they are likely to live more than 25 years.
However, 55% of females are projected to live longer than 25 years.
• 6% of survey respondents thought they are likely to live more than 30 years.
However, 36% of females are projected to live longer than 30 years.
Under-estimation of post-retirement lifespan
July 14
9
• Survey responses are based on research commissioned by Partnership (2014). Projected survival probabilities have been derived using the ONS ‘2012-based’ population projections for the UK.
10. • People tend to underestimate their lifespan and do not appreciate the degree
of variance in post-retirement life expectancy
• 36% of survey respondents said they would put their pension fund in the bank
and use it “as and when needed” (if they were to receive their fund in cash on
retirement)1
• Countries with flexible retirement regimes are experiencing issues with
pensioners depleting their funds (or borrowing against them)
– US: Nearly one half of Baby Boomers are “at risk” of being unable to meet “basic” retirement expenditures2
– Australia: total pension savings less household debt = zero3
• The new regime gives consumers increased choice and flexibility, but the
possibility that pensioners will exhaust their pension savings too soon4,5,6
• With greater choice there is greater need for
information/education/guidance/advice on longevity
The challenge
July 14
10
• Sources: 1 Partnership (2014); 2 Employee Benefit Research Institute (2010); 3 CPA Australia (2013); 4 David Blake as reported in FT (2014); Pablo Antolin as reported in FT (2014); Chris Daykin as reported in FT (2014)
11. Thank you
July 14
11
All information contained in this document is confidential and should be treated as confidential. No disclosure, use, copying or circulation of this
document should occur without the permission of Partnership.
Partnership retains all intellectual property interests association with this document.
The content of this document is intended to provide general information. Examples and other materials contained within this document are for
illustrative purposes and should not be relied upon. Partnership takes no responsibility for any errors or omissions in this document.
This document shall not form the basis of, or be relied upon, in connection with any offer or act as an inducement to enter into any contract. No
representation or warranty is given, express or implied, as to the accuracy of the information contained in this document.
Partnership is a trading style of the Partnership group of Companies, which includes; Partnership Life Assurance Company Limited (registered
in England and Wales No. 05465261), and Partnership Home Loans Limited (registered in England and Wales No. 05108846).
Partnership Life Assurance Company Limited is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct
Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Partnership Home Loans Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct
Authority. The registered office for both companies is Heron Tower, 110 Bishopsgate, London, EC2N 6AY.
12. Gregg McClymont MP
Shadow Minister (Work and Pensions)
This event is kindly hosted by
#populationpatterns
14. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Mapping demographic change
A factpack of statistics from the ILC-UK
#populationpatterns
Ben Franklin, Research Fellow
International Longevity Centre – UK @ilcuk
15. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Annual compendium of statistics mapping demographic
change.
Produced as part of Population Patterns Series in
association with Partnership.
Covers issues from population growth to pensions, housing
and fiscal sustainability.
Sets the agenda for the ILC-UK’s future work.
This year’s focus is on pensioner poverty.
What is the factpack and what does it cover?
16. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
How many of us are there?
Some key highlights from this years’ pack
17. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
…the shifting age structure of the UK’s population
18. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Will I be poor in old age?
19. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
…comparisons across different households
20. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Working age households have been particularly badly
impacted by downturn
21. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
…retirement income has held up partly due to reliance on
state pension which has risen in line with living costs
22. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
…benefit income particularly important for low income
households
23. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Spending on pensioner benefits to rise nearly 9% of
GDP over long term
24. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
UK population set to continue growing to over 70 million by 2028.
Working age population will continue to rise in England but not other
UK nations.
Pensioner poverty has fallen but can this fall be sustained especially in
face of rising working age poverty and rising costs of benefit provision
for older adults?
All govt spending projections are linked to projections of labour
productivity growth (2.2% per annum) but this may be overly
optimistic.
Raises questions about credibility of long-term spending commitments.
Key takeaways
25. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Many thanks
Ben Franklin
Research Fellow
International Longevity Centre - UK
benfranklin@ilcuk.org.uk
02073400440
Twitter: @ilcuk
27. Adjusting to increases in life
expectancy–
Opportunities and challenges
Les Mayhew
Faculty of Actuarial Science and Insurance
Cass Business School
28. Questions arising
• Will life expectancy continue to rise at its
present rate?
• How long will I live?
• Will I have enough money to see me
through?
• Is the financial services sector being
innovative enough?
29. Male and female life expectancy at age 60
Life expectancy at 60 has almost doubled since records began.
Until1980 men were increasingly lagging behind but now they are rapidly
catching up and may converge with females by 2030.
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
Lifeexpectancyatage60
Males
Females
30. 0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
Differenceinfemale-malelife
expectancyatage60(years)
This chart illustrates the rate of
convergence between men and women
Until 1900 the difference in male-female life expectancy at age 60 was less than one year. The
gap then grew reaching a maximum in 1977, since when it has been falling rapidly, But how
high can life expectancy climb and which ages are most affected?
Gap highest
in 1977
31. Splitting life expectancy into small
chunks
• While we don’t know the limits to life we
can estimate the chances of surviving a
defined number of years
• E.g. using decomposition techniques we
can calculate how many of the next ten
years we might live
• This has important uses e.g. inheritance
planning, downsizing, pensions,
insurance, paying for social care
32. 10-year male life expectancy at age 60
Males aged 60 can expect to live another 9.5 years compared with 8.5 years in
1950 so it effectively means they have a 95% chance of reaching age 70. So not
much room for improvement here.
50 year
olds
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
10-yearmalelifeexpectancyatage60
60 to 70
9.5 years
33. 10-year male life expectancy at age 70
Males aged 70 can expect to live 7.5 years of the next 10. This is up 2.6 years
compared with 1950 when there was only a 50% chance of making 70. By 2050
it could be close to 100% if trends continue.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
10-yearmalelifeexpectancyatage60
60 to 70
70-80
7.5 years
34. 10-year male life expectancy at age 80
Males aged 80 can expect to live 4 years out of the next 10. This is 3 years
more compared with 1950. By 2050 they could live 9.3 years if trend
continues.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
10-yearmalelifeexpectancyatage60
60 to 70
70-80
80-90
4 years
35. 10-year male life expectancy at age 90
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
10-yearmalelifeexpectancyatage60
60 to 70
70-80
80-90
90-100
A male aged 90 can expect to live only one year out of the next 10, but
this is poised to change if current if trend continues, However, this
prediction is less well founded
1 year
36. 10-year male life expectancy at 100+
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
10-yearmalelifeexpectancy
60 to 70
70-80
80-90
90-100
100+
Less than
one year
At age 100 there is still very little sign of growth but
cannot be ruled out
37. ‘Jam-jar’ model of life
The process can be likened to a series of jam-jars gradually filling up
over time. Since 1990 they have been filling up much more rapidly.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
60-70 70-80 80-90 90-100 100+
Age group
Yearsoutof10
Available years
Years to be added 2010 to 2030
Actual years added 1950 to 2010
Completed years by 1950
38. With or without centenarians?
The future uncertainty is mainly due to not knowing the contribution of
centenarians to life expectancy at age 60. Until 2040 it does not make much
difference to the predictions but it is still relevant to people turning 60 from now
on.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Year
Malelifeexpectancyatage60
Scenario 1: Few centenarians
Actual male life expectancy at 60
39. With or without centenarians?
The future uncertainty is mainly due to not knowing the future contributions of
centenarians to life expectancy at age 60. However, at least to 2040 it does
not make much difference but this is still relevant to people turning 60 now
and in the future
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Year
Malelifeexpectancyatage60
Scenario 1: Few centenarians
Scenario 2: Many centenarians
Actual male life expectancy at 60
40. Key conclusions – a summary
• Most future growth in life expectancy in
retirement will come between ages 70 and 90
• Life expectancy beyond 100 years of age is
increasing very slowly and so will not contribute
as much as was thought
• Age at death will tend to increasingly cluster in
early 90s as the age of death of men and
women converge
• Decomposition gives us more precision and
flexibility in terms future trends and is another
tool for retirement planning
41. Income draw down and the life
expectancy conundrum
Assume a person takes his or her pension pot worth £100,000 at age 60 and
decides on income draw down. How should they budget?
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
age
Malelifeexpectancyonreachinggivenage
42. Income draw down and the life
expectancy conundrum
At age 60 a male could expect to live another 23 years so crudely he
would spend down at a rate of 1/23rd of his pot each year before
interest or tax
0
5
10
15
20
25
60 70 80 90 100 110
age
femalelifeexpectancyonreachinggivenage
43. Income draw down and the life
expectancy conundrum
Life expectancy is an average. Each year he survives he gets another
extension e.g. if he survives to when he was supposed to die at 83 he gets
another 7 years. Someone has put more grains of sand in the egg-timer!
0
5
10
15
20
25
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
age
Malelifeexpectancyonreachinggivenage
44. Income draw down and the life
expectancy conundrum
By the time he reaches 90 what was previously life expectancy at
83 has jumped by another 4 years.
0
5
10
15
20
25
60 70 80 90 100 110
age
Malelifeexpectancyonreachinggivenage
45. Income draw down and the life
expectancy conundrum
So what started out as a simple budgeting problem has turned into
something more complex – which is why annuities were invented!
0
5
10
15
20
25
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
age
Malelifeexpectancyonreachinggivenage
Selection
effect
46. Income draw down plan at 60
based on life expectancy
A person with a pot of £100k could draw down some money each year and re-
invest the rest. By considering his life expectancy at each age and proportioning
his spend accordingly his profile could look like this. But by age 71 the pot will
have shrunk by half.
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
Age
Annualdrawdown£s
Pension pot
half-life
47. Income draw down plan at 60
based on life expectancy
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
Age
Annualdrawdown£s
If he kept his remaining pot in an interest bearing account he could extend
his budget and his pot considerably but pot would still shrink to half its size
by age 80.
Pension pot
half-life
48. Income draw down plan from 60
based on life expectancy
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
Age
Annualdrawdown£s
For the longest lived there could be an income gap. One solution to this would
be to annuitize or draw down a proportion of the value in the home using equity
release e.g. see ‘The Equity Bank – Towards income security in old age’
Income
gap
49. How well are we prepared?
• We are living longer,
but are we planning
for it better?
50. How well are we prepared?
• We are living longer
but are we planning
for it better?
• New flexibilities imply
greater choice and
discretion
51. How well are we prepared?
• We are living longer but
are we planning for it
better?
• New flexibilities place
greater responsibility
and provide greater
choice
• Average pension pots
are small and must last
for longer
52. How well are we prepared?
• Using the value in the
home becomes more
important, more so in
later retirement
53. How well are we prepared?
• Using the value in the
home becomes more
important, more so in
later retirement
• Downsizing may
not suit everybody
54. How well are we prepared?
• Using the value in the
home becomes more
important, more so in
later retirement
• Downsizing may not
suit everybody
• Well there is always
the children!
55. Tom Younger
Head of Contributory State Pensions Analysis
Department for Work and Pensions
This event is kindly hosted by
#populationpatterns
56. ILC-UK 2014 Factpack launch
A Population Patterns Seminar Series
event, supported by Partnership
Thursday 17th July 2014
This event is kindly hosted by
#populationpatterns