During 2014, ILC-UK, supported by the specialist insurance company, Partnership Assurance Group plc, is undertaking a series of events to explore the relationship between our changing demography and public policy. The third event in the series explored the demographic implications of Scottish independence. In 2014, Scotland will vote in an independence referendum which could significantly change its relationship with the rest of the United Kingdom. An independent Scotland would have a fully independent NHS, control a significant proportion of the North Sea oil reserves and will take on a percentage of the UK national debt. An independent Scotland would also result in the UK having a new demographic makeup. There are currently a number of marked differences between the two countries which will be highlighted by the division. These include a 2.8 year gap in healthy life expectancy for men, as well as differences in overall life expectancy and mortality rates. Recent figures released by the ONS suggest that the future health of an independent Scotland may actually align with that of the UK. The number of children aged two to 15 either overweight or obese in Scotland is now equal to that of England (30%), and lower than Wales (36%), and Scottish men are significantly more active than their counterparts in both countries. The seminar explored these differences, as well as how the demography of an independent Scotland may change over time, and what future Scottish Governments (with or without independence) may need to do to adapt to these demographic changes. Scottish independence would have a number of age-related policy implications for both Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom. The issue of Scotland’s ageing population has already entered political debate, with the SNP announcing that, if elected, they would make new pensioners £4.40 a month better off than in England, while also pledging to set up a commission looking at the state pension age. The Scottish government has also announced that benefits, tax credits and state pensions would continue to be paid from the first day of independence, but have not addressed how they will meet the challenge of moving schemes from one administration to another.

1. The demographic implications of
Scottish independence
Population Patterns Seminar Series
Friday 2nd May 2014
This event is kindly supported by Partnership
#populationpatterns

2. Welcome
Tim Ellis
Chief Executive
National Records of Scotland
This event is kindly supported by Partnership
#populationpatterns

3. David Sinclair
Assistant Director, Policy and Communications
ILC-UK
This event is kindly supported by Partnership
#populationpatterns

4. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Demographic change in
Scotland
David Sinclair, International Longevity
Centre – UK @ilcuk @sinclairda

5. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
ILC-UK Planning Tomorrow, Today
 think tank
 evidence based
 policy focussed
 balanced
 independent
 respected
 experts
 networked
 international

6. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
We work with…

7. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Our focus is broad

8. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Percentage change in number of people of
‘working age’ 2013-2037

9. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.

10. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Fertility rates per 1,000 females by age group

11. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Percentage change in numbers in employment
relative to 2012

12. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Employment rates by age band

13. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
At birth life expectancy by region (2008-10)

14. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Life expectancy by region 1981-2030

15. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Dependency ratio indexed to 2012

16. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Oil and Gas revenues

17. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
 Spending per person in Scotland is currently higher than in the
UK, at £12,629 per person in 2011/12, compared with £11,381.
 The Institute for Fiscal Studies has modelled what might
happen to the government finances of an independent Scotland
assuming that there is no policy change.
 As a result of demographic trends and slowing oil revenues, the
IFS forecast that public sector net debt in Scotland will exceed
100% of national income by 2033-34. By comparison, the UK
which has some what more favourable demographics and is
less reliant on revenues from fossil fuel, will see net debt to
GDP fall to around 60% over the same time period.

18. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Public Sector net debt projections

19. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
So
 By international standards, the challenges facing
Scotland are not unique
 But with no policy change, Scotland faces
arguably bigger demographic challenges than the
UK as a whole.
 So how should Scottish policymakers (irrespective
of the independence vote) respond?

20. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
David Sinclair
Assistant Director, Policy & Communications
International Longevity Centre
Davidsinclair@ilcuk.org.uk
02073400440
Twitter: @ilcuk and @sinclairda

21. Richard Willets
Director of Longevity
Partnership
This event is kindly supported by Partnership
#populationpatterns

22. Welcome by Partnership
Richard Willets
International Longevity Centre – 2 May 2014

23. Life expectancy trends in different countries
May 14
23
• Source: www.mortality.org
• In which pair of countries have trends in life expectancy been most
similar?
• Used figures taken from the Human Mortality Database* for OECD
countries covering a 50-year period (1960 to 2009)
• Considered life expectancy at age 65 (for males and females
separately)
• Compared figures in 28 countries (i.e. 378 pairs)
• Calculated correlation coefficient between life expectancy figures for
each pair of countries

24. Countries included in the analysis
May 14
24
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Hungary
Israel
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovakia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland USA
New Zealand
England & Wales
Scotland Northern Ireland

25. The least similar pair of countries…
May 14
25
• Source: www.mortality.org
• Japan & Slovakia (least similar – 378th out of 378)
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Japan
Slovaki
a
Male life
expectanc
y at age
65

26. Similar, but not the most similar…
May 14
26
• Source: www.mortality.org
• Spain and Portugal (ranked 38th)
• Sweden and Finland (ranked 67th)
• France and Belgium (ranked 53rd)
• Australia and New Zealand (ranked 73rd)
• USA and Canada (ranked 34th)
• Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland (ranked 106th)

27. The most similar pair of countries …
May 14
27
• Source: www.mortality.org
• England & Wales and Scotland
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
England & Wales
Scotland
Male life
expectanc
y at age
65

28. Summary
May 14
28
• Source: www.mortality.org
• For males England & Wales and Scotland have the most similar
trend
• For females the same pair are ranked 8th of 378
• Interesting to see whether trends will be as similar over next 50
years…

29. Thank you
May 14
29
Partnership is a trading style of the Partnership group of Companies, which includes; Partnership Life Assurance Company Limited
(registered in England and Wales No. 05465261), and Partnership Home Loans Limited (registered in England and Wales No.
05108846).
Partnership Life Assurance Company Limited is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial
Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Partnership Home Loans Limited is authorised and regulated by the
Financial Conduct Authority. The registered office for both companies is Heron Tower, 5th Floor, 110 Bishopsgate, London, EC2N 4AY.

30. Kirsty MacLauchlan
Head of Demography
National Records of Scotland
This event is kindly supported by Partnership
#populationpatterns

31. Implications of the referendum
on demographic change
Kirsty MacLachlan
Head of Demography
2 May 2014

32. • Recent changes in demography
• How might the referendum impact on
demography in the future?
– Population
– Life expectancy
– Fertility
– Migration
– Age structure
Overview

33. How has Scotland’s population
changed over time?

34. An average Scot
In the late 1850s
– were called John Smith or Mary
Macdonald
– had a 1 in 7 chance of dying before
their first birthday
– lived almost 2 to a room, with a 1 in
3 chance of sharing the room with
the whole family
– got married at 27 (John) and 25
(Mary)
– had a 1 in 3 chance of being
married in their 20s
– had a life expectancy at birth of 40
(John) and 44 (Mary)
At end of the 20th Century
– were called Lewis Smith or Emma
Brown
– had a 1 in 200 chance of dying
before their first birthday
– each had 2 rooms to live in
– got married at 32 (Lewis) and 29
(Emma)
– had a 1 in 7 chance of being
married in their 20s
– had a life expectancy at birth of 76
(Lewis) or 81 (Emma)

35. Estimated population of Scotland on
30 June 2013 was 5,327,700
An increase of 14,100 since mid-2012 - the highest ever recorded
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
Population(thousands)
Year

36. Population Change 1953-2013
•Mid-2012 to Mid-2013: Natural change: +900 Net migration: +10,000
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003 2013
Persons(thousands)
Year
Natural change (births - deaths) Net migration

37. Scotland Performs Purpose Target
To match average European (EU15) population growth over the
period from 2007 to 2017

39. What are the factors
influencing changes in the
composition of the
population?

40. Fertility

41. Live births per 1,000 women, by age
0
50
100
150
200
250
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
Age of mother
Fertilityrate
1951
1964
1977
1991
2012
1
Rate for age 15 includes births at younger ages
and for age 44 for births at older ages

42. 0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Births
Calendar Year
Births in Scotland to mothers born outside the UK, by mother’s country of birth, 2002
to 2012
Other EU pre-2004 EU Accession States Commonwealth Other countries

43. 0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Births
Calendar Year
Births in Scotland, by mother's country of birth, 2002 to 2012
Scotland Rest Of the UK Outside UK

45. 0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Hungary
Romania
Poland
Latvia
Portugal
Germany
Spain
Croatia
Italy
Greece
Austria
CzechRepublic
Slovakia
Bulgaria
Estonia
Slovenia
EuropeanUnion(27countries)
SCOTLAND
Denmark
Lithuania
Netherlands
Belgium
Finland
Norway
Sweden
Wales
UnitedKingdom
England
France
Iceland
Ireland
NorthernIreland
Total Fertility Rate, selected
European countries, 2011

46. Life Expectancy

47. Average age at death, selected causes, Scotland, 1978-2012
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2012
Year
Averageage
All causes
Stroke
Ischaemic heart disease
Cancer

49. 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Years
MALE FEMALE
SCOTLAND
Least
deprived
Most
deprived
Ordered by lowest male life expectancy to highest
Life Expectancy at birth, 2008-2010

50. Migration

51. Rest of UK migration +7,900
An increase of 4,900 from the previous year
47,700 in-migrants, 39,800 out-migrants
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Persons(thousands)
Year
Out In Net

52. Overseas migration +2,100
Net migration fell by 7,600. In-migration fell by 7,700
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Persons(thousands)
Year
Out to overseas In from overseas Net

53. Net migration

54. •Country of birth
7 per cent of people living in Scotland were born outside of the UK
increase of 3 percentage points since 2001
55 per cent of those born outside of the UK arrived between 2004
and 2011
69 per cent were of working age (aged 16-64) when they arrived
38 per cent were in their twenties
In Aberdeen City, 1 person in 6 was born outside of the UK
compared with East Ayrshire where 1 person in 44 was born
abroad

55. •Countries of birth outside of the UK

56. Growing ethnic diversity
2001 2011
•Proportion of people reported as belonging to minority ethnic group
•between 2001 and 2011, Scotland

57. European comparisons:
Proportion of foreign born population

58. ONS figures- UK migration

59. UK migration – main reason for
entering UK

60. Impact of
demography on
Households

61. 0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Year
Percentageofallhouseholds
1 person
2 people
3 people
4 people
5+ people
More people are living in smaller households

62. Growth in households has slowed since
the start of the economic downturn
Annual increase in households, 2002-2012
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
Annualincreaseinhouseholds
Start of global economic downturn
Source: Household estimates based on Council Tax data

63. • Numbers are increasing (though slower
than rest of UK and rest of the world)
• Life expectancy is increasing (at similar
rate to rest of UK and EU)
• Fertility dropped in the 70s (and is now
lower than the rest of the UK but still higher
than the EU average)
• Greater urbanisation (and move from West
to East)

64. Implications of the referendum?
• Is fertility likely to increase,
decrease or stay the same?
• Is life expectancy likely to
increase, decrease or stay the
same?
• Is migration likely to increase,
decrease or stay the same?

65. What is the projected
population?

66. Estimated population of Scotland,
actual and projected, 1952-2087
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1952 1967 1982 1997 2012 2027 2042 2057 2072 2087
Year
Persons('000s)
Projected
Footnotes
1) Continuous line shows final population estimates and the broken line (2002 to 2010) shows those years which will be rebased using information from the 2011 Census.
2) 2012 based projection.

67. Key points: 2012-2022
• The population of Scotland is projected
to increase from an estimated 5.31
million to 5.52 million over the ten years
• Increase in population
– natural increase : 28%
– net migration : 72%

68. Scotland’s changing age distribution
300,000 200,000 100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90+
Age(5yearagegroups)
Population
Female
Male
1861
300,000 200,000 100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90+
Age(5yearagegroups)
Population
Female
Male
1961

69. There is a projected
increase of over
half a million
households over the
next 25 years.
Wide variety in
household growth
across the country.
Projected percentage change
in households, 2010-2035

73. •Variant projections
•High migration
•High life expectancy
•High fertility
•Low migration
•Low Life expectancy
• Low fertility
• High population
• Low population
•Single component variants •Combination component
variants
•Zero net migration
•Special component variant

74. Actual and projected total population, Scotland,
under the 2012-based principal and selected
variant projections, 1982-2087

75. Change in average (median) age 2012-2037 (variant projections )
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037
Year
Ageinyears
Natural change
Low population
Low fertility
Low migration
High life expectancy
Principal
Low life expectancy
High migration
High fertility
High population

76. -40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
High
Population
High life
expectancy
High
migration
High fertility Principal Low fertility Natural
change only
Low migration Low life
expectancy
Low
Population
Variant
Percentagechange
0-15 16-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75+
Percentage change in age structure 2012-2037 variant projections

77. Projected percentage of population over
75, selected European countries, 2035
Source: ONS (UK and constituent countries) and Eurostat.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Ireland
Luxembourg
Cyprus
Slovakia
Romania
Lithuania
NorthernIreland
Belgium
Denmark
England
CzechRepublic
Estonia
UK
Latvia
Hungary
Spain
Sweden
Austria
Greece
Scotland
Bulgaria
Poland
Portugal
Netherlands
Slovenia
France
Malta
Italy
Wales
Finland
Germany
Percentageaged75+

81. Summary
• Scotland’s population is likely to
continue to increase and age over
the next 25 years regardless of the
outcome of the referendum
• Net migration assumed to be the
main contributor to population
growth

82. Any questions?

83. Professor David Bell
Professor of Economics
University of Stirling
This event is kindly supported by Partnership
#populationpatterns

84. Demographic Implications of Scottish Independence.
PROFESSOR DAVID BELL
DIVISION OF ECONOMICS
STIRLING MANAGEMENT SCHOOL
UNIVERSITY OF STIRLING

85. There has been a substantial increase in the number
of states in the world in recent decades
• The number of sovereign states has been steadily increasing for the last six
decades at least
• Median country size now less than 6m people.
• Scottish population = 5.3m.
0
50
100
150
200
250
1950 1940 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
NumberofSovereign
States

86. Has the Union been bad for Scotland’s population?
Scotland’s Population/England’s Population 1600-2011
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
ScotlandPop/EnglandPop
Year
Act of Union

87. Two areas where demographics are making a
significant impact on the independence debate
• Migration
– Can an independent Scotland’s economy grow consistently faster than
rUK unless it is experiencing at least the same rate of net immigration?
– What policy tools are available and effective in increasing net migration?
• Ageing
– Could an independent Scotland meet the additional costs associated
with population ageing?
– Could these costs be mitigated if Scotland was independent?

88. Ageing
• Higher welfare costs?
• Shorter life expectancy in Scotland
• But fewer people of working age per pensioner
• Estimates of extra costs in Scotland sensitive to assumptions about
future net migration in Scotland and rUK

89. Welfare Spending in Scotland 2011-12

90. Relative Costs of Benefits per Working Age Person
Scotland v Great Britain 2012-13
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Maternity Allowance
Housing Benefit
Council Tax Benefit
DLA (children)
Over 75 TV licences
State Pension
Winter Fuel Payments
Carer's Allowance
Total identified expenditure
Attendance Allowance
Pension Credit
Jobseeker's Allowance
Income Support
Statutory Maternity Pay
Industrial Injuries Benefits
SDA (of which pensioners)
Disability Living Allowance
Severe Disablement Allowance
SDA (of which working age)
DLA(working age)
Employment and Support Allowance
DLA(pensioners)
Incapacity Benefit

91. Differences in Costs of Pensioner Benefits Per
Working Age Person
£0
£1,000
£2,000
£3,000
£4,000
£5,000
£6,000
ExpenditureonPensionerBenefits
PerWorkingAgePerson
Scotland
England

92. Demographic Change
European old-age dependency ratios 2010
Source: Eurostat

93. Old-age Dependency Ratios 2040
Source: Eurostat

94. Ageing
• Costs to society – measure as share of GDP – depends
crucially on relative productivity of Scottish economy
• Private pensions – sensitive to interest rates. Pension funds
will buy Scottish Government bonds. Cheaper/more
expensive than UK bonds?

95. Migration

96. What we know:
Net Migration to Scotland
Source: National Records of Scotland, 2013
*The broken line (2002 to 2011) shows estimates which may be recalculated using the 2011 Census

97. Wages and Proportion of Foreign
Born Residents (2012)
North East
Wales
Scotland
Northern
South West
North West
Yorkshire
East Midlands
West Midlands
South-East
0
5
10
15
20
25
£440 £460 £480 £500 £520 £540 £560 £580
ProportionForeignBorn
Gross Weekly Wage (£)
Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 2012, Annual Population Survey 2012

98. Further evidence: COMPAS public opinion research
October 2013; 4,200+ responses
98
• Scotland: more welcoming/less hostile towards
migration
– Scotland: 58% desire reductions in immigration
– England & Wales: 75% desire reductions in immigration
• Support for Scotland controlling its own immigration
policy
– 60% Scottish Government, 31% UK government
• Yes voters less opposed to immigration than No voters
– 58% of No voters desire a reduction in immigration
– 28% of Yes voters desire a reduction in immigration

99. Voting intentions and attitudes to migration
99
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Too low About right Too high Don't know
Yes
No
Don't know
Voting Intention
Do you think the level of migration into Scotland
in the last decade has been:

100. A Separate Immigration Policy for Scotland
within the UK?
• Requires political consent from both levels of government
– Acceptable to public(s)
– Effectiveness in meeting objective(s)
– Stable within devolved settlement
– Seems to work in Quebec
100

101. Conclusions
• Demographic arguments may favour a more open approach to
immigration in Scotland (whether independent or not)
• Arguably, while an independent policy might have slightly stronger
policy levers, a devolved migration policy might face fewer constraints in
terms of implementation
• Ageing poses a challenge with or without independence
• Risk pooling argument would suggest benefits from continuing to handle
risks at UK level
• But Scotland might be able to put in place a better structured welfare
policy
• Within tight fiscal constraints, difficult to argue that there would not be
losers as well as gainers from a restructuring of welfare
101

102. Professor Carol Jagger
AXA Prof of Epidemiology of Ageing
Institute for Ageing and Health
Newcastle University
This event is kindly supported by Partnership
#populationpatterns

103. Implications of Scotland’s
independence on healthy longevity
Carol Jagger
AXA Professor of Epidemiology of Ageing
Pia Wohand
Senior Research Associate
Institute for Ageing and Health
Newcastle University
ILC UK Debate 2 May 2014

104. Demographic challenge for Scotland
and rest of UK
• Inequalities in Disability-
free life expectancy (DFLE)
– Widening or narrowing?
– What factors explain them?
• Challenges of extending
working life in terms of
– Inequalities in DFLE
– Who cares for whom?
“ Increased longevity without quality of life is an empty prize. Health
expectancy is more important than life expectancy.”
Dr Hiroshi Nakajima, Director-General WHO 1997

105. DFLE inequalities exceed those in LE and are widening
1991 2001 1991 2001
mean 77.5 79.2 62.5 62.4
0.10 76.5 77.3 60.3 59.8
0.90 78.4 80.8 65.1 65.2
10-90% range 1.9 3.5 4.8 5.5
mean 79.2 80.9 63.9 64.6
0.10 77.5 79.1 60.1 59.9
0.90 80.7 82.6 67.0 68.3
10-90% range 3.2 3.5 6.9 8.4
mean 72.0 73.8 59.2 59.4
0.10 69.9 71.8 56.3 56.6
0.90 74.0 75.9 61.8 61.7
10-90% range 4.1 4.1 5.6 5.2
mean 73.8 76.4 60.9 62.2
0.10 71.7 74.0 56.4 56.9
0.90 75.6 78.5 64.5 66.3
10-90% range 3.9 4.5 8.1 9.4WomenMen
LE DFLE
Scotland
England&
Wales
Scotland
England&
Wales

106. Where you live or how you live?

107. Which socio-economic factors explain
variation in DFLE in E&W?
DFLE at birth
Women
1991 2001
Univariable Multivariable Univariable Multivariable
β (SE) p β (SE) p β (SE) p β (SE) p
Social Class IV and V (%) -0.46 (0.02) <0.001 -0.16 (0.03) <0.001 -0.66 (0.02) <0.001 -0.35 (0.03) <0.001
Unemployment rate (%) -0.64 (0.03) <0.001 -0.53 (0.05) <0.001 -1.33 (0.05) <0.001 -0.67 (0.08) <0.001
Retirement migration 1.71 (0.11) <0.001 0.42 (0.11) <0.001 3.18 (0.24) <0.001 1.42 (0.15) <0.001
Population density -0.04 (0.01) <0.001 0.02 (0.01) 0.005 -0.04 (0.01) <0.001 -0.01 (0.01) 0.337
Non-white population (%) -0.08 (0.02) <0.001 0.03 (0.02) 0.063 -0.07 (0.02) <0.001 0.05 (0.01) <0.001
r2 0.70 0.81
Source: Wohland et al 2014, JECH (in press)

108. Ethnic composition 2011 census
75
80
85
90
95
100
ENGLAND SCOTLAND Aberdeen City Edinburgh, City of Glasgow City
Other Ethnic Group
Black / African / Caribbean / Black British
Asian / Asian British: Other Asian
Asian / Asian British: Chinese
Asian / Asian British: Bangladeshi
Asian / Asian British: Pakistani
Asian / Asian British: Indian
Mixed / Multiple Ethnic Groups
Gypsy / Traveller / Irish Traveller
White

109. LE and DFLE at birth by ethnic group, 2001
♀ ♂
AsianWhite Mixed Black Other
Differences compared to White British
Wohland et al 2014, Ethnicity & Health

110. Potential for extending working life UK*, men 2001
Average age at onset of
disability
Regions 65+ (N) <65 (N) <65 (%)
EE 48 0 0
EM 35 5 13
LO 28 4 13
NE 10 13 57
NW 29 14 33
SE 67 0 0
SW 44 0 0
WM 31 3 9
YH 16 5 24
Wales 12 10 45
Total (E&W) 320 54 14
Scotland 22 10 31
*European Union 2005 analysis in Jagger et al, Lancet 2009

111. Need for care
 Critical (requires 24-hour care)
 Short-interval (requires help at
regular times daily)
 Long-interval (requires help less
than daily)
 Independent
Source: Jagger et al. BMC Geriatrics 2011
• 75% in care homes
• If at home main carer child
• 33% in care homes
• If at home main carer spouse
(34%), child (31%)
• 4% in care homes
• If at home main carer child
(37%), no-one (18%)

112. Who are the carers?
Born age 85 child born
child age when
parent 85
1921 2006 1947 59
1931 2016 1956 60
1941 2026 1965 61
1951 2036 1976 60
1961 2046 1986 60
1971 2056 1997 59

113. Conclusions
• Inequalities in healthy ageing
– Between different ethnic groups
– Explained partly by unhealthy behaviours
• Ability to raise SPA and encourage longer working
may be difficult
– In those areas with age at onset of disability <65
• Longer life expectancy and growing 85+
population means working longer will entail
juggling work and unpaid care for parent. This will
disproportionally affect
– women who provide most care

114. Acknowledgements
Newcastle 85+ Study
funded by the Medical Research Council, Biotechnology and Biological
Sciences Research Council and the Dunhill Medical Trust. Additional work has
also been funded by the British Heart Foundation, Unilever Corporate
Research, Newcastle University and NHS North of Tyne (Newcastle Primary
Care Trust).
http://www.ncl.ac.uk/iah/research/areas/biogerontology/85plus/
InHALE
Inequalities in Healthy Active Life Expectancy: the role of time, place, person and
methods
ESRC Research Fund RES-062-23-2970 1 October 2011 - 30 September 2014
http://research.ncl.ac.uk/InHALE

115. Find out more
about healthy
life expectancy
REVES 2014
Edinburgh
28-30 May 2014

116. Implications of Scotland’s
independence on healthy longevity
Carol Jagger
(carol.jagger@ncl.ac.uk)
Pia Wohand
(pia.wohland@ncl.ac.uk)
Institute for Ageing and Health
Newcastle University
ILC UK Debate 2 May 2014

117. The demographic implications of
Scottish independence
Population Patterns Seminar Series
Friday 2nd May 2014
This event is kindly supported by Partnership
#populationpatterns