CAR: Fragile progress

Slide 1: CAR: Fragile progress 06/13/08 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 1

Slide 2: Landlocked in a troubled neighbourhood Chad Sudan Nigeria Darfur CAR Cameroon DRC Uganda Congo Gabon Rebellion or internal conflict 06/13/08 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 2

Slide 3: Desperately poor… Percent of population living on less than one dollar a day 73 70 67 64 61 61 59 Mali Nigeria CAR Zambia Niger Burkina Faso Gambia Source: World Bank (2002) 06/13/08 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 3

Slide 4: Getting poorer Income per head (PPP) grew by less than 10% in CAR, but by 80% in Sub-Saharan Africa GDP growth, Base = 100 (1985) +80% Sub-Saharan Africa CAR +60% +40% +20% 100 -20% 1995 1985 1990 2000 2005 Source: IMF (2007) 06/13/08 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 4

Slide 5: Violence in 2006-07 displaced 300,000 out of 4 million 3 SUDAN 20 CHAD DARFUR 50 35 % 3 8 28 Vakaga 17 % 60 45 24 17 Bamingui- 22 % Bangoran 25 11 % 18 % 6% Nana- Ouham- Grébizi Haute-Kotto CAMEROON Pendé 10 % Ouham Nana- Mambéré Bangui IDPs Refugees in thousands in thousands DRC % of pop. CONGO Source: HDPT CAR (October 2007) * Estimated 25,000 pastoralists have been displaced from their territory. Not shown here. Oct-07 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 5

Slide 6: Bandits endanger return and recovery 06/13/08 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 6

Slide 7: Reaching MDGs an enormous challenge Share of people living in poverty unlikely to fall by half MDG 75% 67% Current trend 62% 50% 31% 25% 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: Human Development Report (2006) * at least $135 million of additional yearly requirements according to Gleneagles scenario 06/13/08 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 7

Slide 8: HEALTH Shattered health system struggles to cope with epidemics Health quick facts Epidemics and disease outbreaks 2007/08 • 76% of population live more than 10 km Meningitis in Kaga-Bandoro from nearest health centre Yellow fever in Ouham-Pendé • Life expectancy fell from 49 years in 1988 to 43 years in 2003 Typhoid* in Nana-Mambéré • 56% of births not assisted • Maternal mortality at 1,102 per 100,000 • Infant-mortality rate at 132 per 1,000 • Malaria leading cause of morbidity (40%) and mortality (14%) Hepatitis in Basse-Kotto Polio in Bangui Hepatitis in Ombella-Mpoko Source: Govt. Briefing Paper, (www.car-conference.net), UNFPA (2007), MICS (2006) * disease outbreak, not officially declared an epidemic 06/13/08 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 8

Slide 9: HEALTH And with HIV/AIDS The highest prevalence rate in the region HIV/AIDS prevalence by prefecture in % • 6.2% of the population (15-49 years old) HIV-positive, with over 10% infected in 10.7 7.4 8.4 some prefectures 4.1 2.6 • Women significantly more affected, with 3.1 13.6 7.8% infected, versus 4.3% for men 4.2 • Prevalence roughly twice as high in urban 7.3 3.6 areas as in rural areas. 7.2 3.2 3.1 7.8 • Estimated 140,000 children orphaned by 6.9 6.3 HIV/AIDS Top 7 regions by total Women Men Total • Prevalence of contraceptives only 6.9% Haut-Mbomou 13.5 13.8 13.6 Bamingui-Bangoran 15.1 6.0 10.7 Nana-Gribizi 11.4 4.9 8.4 Bangui 10.3 5.1 7.8 Haute-Kotto 8.3 6.4 7.4 Ombella-M’Poko 9.8 4.5 7.3 Mambéré-Kadéï 10.6 3.2 7.2 Source: Govt. Briefing Paper, (www.car-conference.net), UNFPA (2007), MICS (2006) 06/13/08 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 9

Slide 10: WATER 3 out of 4 million cannot access safe drinking water Water and sanitation quick facts % of pop. using improved sanitation (HDI bottom 10) • Most water pumps in disrepair Mali 46 • Only 26% of population has Sierra L. 39 access to safe drinking water • About 73% of population without Guinea-B. 35 access to sanitation facilities Mozambique 32 • Open-air defecation common DRC 30 • No waste management system CAR 27 Burkina F. 13 Niger 13 Ethiopia 13 Chad 9 Source: UN (2007) Suivi des OMD en RCA, UNDP HDR 2007/08 Source: UNDP HDR 2007/08 06/13/08 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 10

Slide 11: WATER Drinking water a health hazard 06/13/08 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 11

Slide 12: FOOD SECURITY AND AGRICULTURE Agriculture in disarray Food security and agriculture quick facts Children suffer: severely retarded growth • Global acute malnutrition for children 30% under 5 years at 10% • Global moderate malnutrition rate 25% 20 percent higher than in 1995 • 15 million ha arable land but only 600,000 20% ha cultivated • 94% of farming is subsistence farming 15% • Agricultural production in the north came to a virtual halt, no seeds, no tools 10% 5% Months 9 18 30 42 54 Source: Govt. Briefing Paper on Rural Development (www.car-conference.net), MICS Source: MICS-3, WHO (2007) 06/13/08 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 12

Slide 13: FOOD SECURITY AND AGRICULTURE Food security paradox: fertile soils yet malnutrition rife 06/13/08 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 13

Slide 14: EDUCATION One of the world’s weakest educational systems Education quick facts Pupils per teacher in Sub-Saharan Africa • Only 1.45% of GDP spent on education, 100 almost 50% below African average 92 • Primary enrolment rates have not 83 improved in 15 years 80 72 • Pupil to teacher ratio 92:1 in primary 66 63 62 education 60 • Almost 50% of teachers are parents • Only 32% of pupils completed primary 40 education in 2005 • Adult literacy rate 51% for men, 32% for women 20 CAR Congo Ethiopia Mozam. Chad Rwanda Source: Govt. Briefing Paper on Education (www.car-conference.net) Source: UNESCO (2005), Pupil-teacher ratio in primary education (X:1) 06/13/08 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 14

Slide 15: EDUCATION Communities resort to bush schools and parent-teachers 06/13/08 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 15

Slide 16: Three ‘make or break’ issues to enhance stability in 2008 Central African people expect government and donors to deliver Inclusive Security Political Sector Dialogue Reform Poverty Reduction Strategy 06/13/08 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 16

Slide 17: Inclusive Political Dialogue: consolidating fragile peace Photo Align with top grey line and bottom black bar 06/13/08 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 17

Slide 18: Inclusive Political Dialogue: consolidating fragile peace Timeline of peace agreements A truly inclusive political dialogue • February 2007: centre-north • Release of UFDR spokesman and chairman created a favourable climate Front démocratique pour le peuple centrafricain (FDPC) • APRD finally takes part in negotiations, • April 2007: north-east so three main militant groups at the table Union des Forces Démocratiques pour le • Preparatory committee prepares ground Rassemblement (UFDR) for dialogue in July 2008 • May 2008: north-west • Regional mediation offers international Armée Populaire pour la Restauration de recognition and improves neutrality la République et la Démocratie (APRD) • June 2008: global agreement expected 06/13/08 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 18

Slide 19: Security sector reform: governance; stability; safety Photo Align with top grey line and bottom black bar 06/13/08 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 19

Slide 20: Security and development for a resilient state Dire state of security services in CAR Security sector reform (SSR) elements • Forces armées centrafricaines (FACA), the national army; roughly 5,000 soldiers (at Army and least 10% over retirement age) Gendarmerie • Impunity of armed forces has been a Police and powerful factor for internal displacement Paramilitary Customs • Police force has lost 60% of its staff since forces 1981; roughly 1,350 officers active SSR • Only 1 magistrate per 40,000 Central Africans; vast majority in the capital • Customs Service has only 396 staff Justice Good system Governance • None of the services have the required equipment or training Public • Salary arrears impede performance Finances 06/13/08 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 20

Slide 21: Progress on Security Sector Reform A gateway to stability Need for action • Decision to transform security and justice • Failure would signal to armed forces to providers into legitimate and effective continue to act with impunity institutions under democratic control • Reform is critical for protecting territory, • Government demonstrates strong resources and population in volatile region political will, working openly and closely • Failure could discredit and isolate the with partners, facilitated by UNDP government from international support • Landmark SSR seminar held in April • Follow-up and continued donor engagement 2008, kick-starting process and outlining is key after April seminar concrete actions for next two years. 06/13/08 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 21

Slide 22: Aid effectiveness: getting back on track to reduce poverty 06/13/08 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 22

Slide 23: Aid effectiveness: getting back on track to reduce poverty Key steps towards aid effectiveness Paris Declaration Principles in CAR • Sept 2007: Paris Declaration • Ownership CAR government commits to aid Government now stepping forward to lead effectiveness principles aid coordination • Sept 2007: HIPC decision point • Alignment CAR becomes eligible for debt relief, HIPC Transitioning from donor to national triggers focus on accountability development priorities • Oct 2007: Poverty Reduction Strategy • Harmonisation CAR government presents national Integrating humanitarian and priorities to international community development coordination • Managing for results Strengthening national monitoring and evaluation capacity • Mutual accountability Implementing aid management system 06/13/08 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 23

Slide 24: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) An inclusive strategy for development High stakes for government and donors • Landmark document published in 2007 • Serious government efforts need to be after wide public engagement matched by stronger donor engagement • Estimated costs at $3.5 billion for period • Lack of action on the PRSP could 2008-2010 contribute to popular disillusionment and renewed tensions • Donor Round Table raised significant • Linking humanitarian and development aid expectations among the population critical to avoid recovery gap 06/13/08 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 24

Slide 25: The aid gap is growing: Why is that and what can you do? Development aid to Sub-Saharan Africa rose by 87% since 1985, but fell by 49% for CAR ODA Growth, Base = 100 (1985) +100% Sub-Saharan Africa CAR +80% +60% +40% +20% 100 -20% -40% -60% -80% 1995 1985 1990 2000 2005 Source: OECD (2007), Development Assistance Disbursements (constant USD), All donors 06/13/08 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 25

Slide 26: Because of political instability? CAR scores -1.69 on the World Bank’s political instability index -2.5 -1.0 0 1.0 2.5 South Africa Rwanda Angola Uganda Central African Republic Chad Nigeria Cote d’Ivoire Sudan Congo, Dem. Republic of Somalia Source: World Bank (2007), Worldwide Governance Indicators, Selection 06/13/08 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 26

Slide 27: Because of a lack of strategic natural resources? Sudan Chad Darfur Cameroon Bangui Diamonds Gold DRC Timber Congo Uranium 06/13/08 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 27

Slide 28: Because of corruption? CAR scores -1.06 on the World Bank’s corruption control index -2.5 -1.0 0 1.0 2.5 South Africa Rwanda Ethiopia Uganda Central African Republic Sudan Angola Chad Nigeria Congo, Dem. Republic of Somalia Source: World Bank (2007), Worldwide Governance Indicators, Selection 06/13/08 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 28

Slide 29: Because of an overly repressive regime? CAR scores -1.06 on the World Bank’s voice and accountability index -2.5 -1.0 0 1.0 2.5 South Africa Uganda Central African Republic Ethiopia Rwanda Nigeria Chad Zimbabwe Congo, Dem. Republic of Sudan Somalia Source: World Bank (2007), Worldwide Governance Indicators, Selection 06/13/08 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 29