1. Hands on tracking our SCRUM improving process
 Planning for uncertainty
 'Finished' does not mean 'complete'
 Observing the changes to be able to adapt
Nov, 2011 Agile tour 2011 – Hands on tracking our SCRUM improving process Mircea Puiu

2. 2
• Traditional planning asks:
(the father of
modern What is most likely to happen?
management)
Peter Drucker
• It is essential to frame things in a new way
• Planning for uncertainty asks instead:
What has already happened that will create the future?
SCRUM's Inspect & Adapt
Nov, 2011 Agile tour 2011 – Hands on tracking our SCRUM improving process

3. 3
 Early warning not visible during transition
 Planning: either effective or less effective: constant effect not related to planning
(always after 4 days of a sprint)
CAUSE: 'Something' not accounted for when planning
Nov, 2011 Agile tour 2011 – Hands on tracking our SCRUM improving process

4. 4
We ignored uncertainty
The Cone of Uncertainty: a project management term used to describe the level of uncertainty
existing at different stages of a project
Nov, 2011 Agile tour 2011 – Hands on tracking our SCRUM improving process

5. 5
We ignored uncertainty
User Stories not INVEST shaped
We really had We didn't know enough
no idea of at that point to define
what's required the work
Not an 'effort estimating' issue!
BUT
 a scoping issue
 a risk management issue
Nov, 2011 Agile tour 2011 – Hands on tracking our SCRUM improving process

6. 6
Steps to manage uncertainty
1. Name, face, and accept uncertainties
 understand that uncertainty cannot be wished or planned
away
 go for a balance between attempts to reduce the uncertainty
and attempts to accommodate it
2. Plan for uncertainty
 Use a wider range estimate to reflect the greater uncertainty
 Keep room for unplanned incoming work
 Break the work down into smaller units
o Update the completion criteria based on better written user
stories
3. Adopt a deliberative or communicative approach
 Make sprint execution visible to management
o Make sprint execution visible to customers
Nov, 2011 Agile tour 2011 – Hands on tracking our SCRUM improving process

7. 7
Steps to manage uncertainty – we started planning for uncertainty
Accounting for:
• knowledge transfer throughout the team
• gaining skills
• risk analysis
Nov, 2011 Agile tour 2011 – Hands on tracking our SCRUM improving process

8. 8
Steps to manage uncertainty – first sign that we went the right way
 Good start in sprint
o Waiting for end of sprint to see if the unwanted effect is away
Nov, 2011 Agile tour 2011 – Hands on tracking our SCRUM improving process

9. 9
Steps to manage uncertainty – the confirmation
 Well done at the end of the sprint
Nov, 2011 Agile tour 2011 – Hands on tracking our SCRUM improving process

10. 10
'Finished' does not mean 'complete'
Nov, 2011 Agile tour 2011 – Hands on tracking our SCRUM improving process

11. 11
'Finished' does not mean 'complete'
The customer is not interested in "completed" activities on a
planning chart
The customer is interested in delivered functionality (new or
repaired)
SCRUM's Inspect
SCRUM's Adapt
Updating the completion criteria based on better written user stories
Nov, 2011 Agile tour 2011 – Hands on tracking our SCRUM improving process

12. 12
Updating the completion criteria based on better written user stories
Incorrect theme Hard to track
PBI = just a placeholder for 'something'
intended to be done
Epic's polar map
'Finished' does not mean 'complete' Further repairing foreseen
for the next sprint(s)
Easier to track the
Repaired functionality delivered "still to be done" work
Nov, 2011 Agile tour 2011 – Hands on tracking our SCRUM improving process

13. 13
'Finished' does not mean 'complete'  a matter of wise decision
vs.
Larger sprints ReTasking
– The longer the sprint, the  By keeping the sprints short,
harder for the feedback to the stakeholders see more
come from the stakeholders seldom the results
 The more seldom they see
results, the more they feel
their investment is returned
 ReTasking fits very well to
dynamic changes of
requirements
Nov, 2011 Agile tour 2011 – Hands on tracking our SCRUM improving process

14. 14
'Finished' does not mean 'complete'  building confidence
The more seldom the stakeholders see results ...
... the more they feel their investment is returned
... the bigger the deal each sprint review will be to the team
win
Managers
win win
Customers Devs
Nov, 2011 Agile tour 2011 – Hands on tracking our SCRUM improving process

15. 15
Observing the changes to be able to adapt
Nov, 2011 Agile tour 2011 – Hands on tracking our SCRUM improving process

16. 16
Observing the changes to be able to adapt
During each daily stand-up meeting, apart from answering to the
classical three questions regarding "did", "impediments" and
"will do", our team members answered to a fourth question:
How confident are you that the team will accomplish its objectives at the end of the sprint?
Objectives:
 Estimate how responsive the team is to ReTasking (the newly introduced
SBT state);
 Estimate the trust within the team;
 Estimate how confident the team is in PO's support in case of ReTasking, as
any incoming work during the sprint execution is a disturbance to the
running sprint process that the team must handle with success.
Nov, 2011 Agile tour 2011 – Hands on tracking our SCRUM improving process

17. 17
Observing the changes to be able to adapt
Nov, 2011 Agile tour 2011 – Hands on tracking our SCRUM improving process

18. 18
Observing the changes to be able to adapt
Good news:
 The team is very responsive to any disturbance to the sprint execution process. The
team members paid attention to the inputs and outputs.
 The trust within the team continues to increase. Approaching the sprint end and
having tasks that have been linking the team members one to each other (in the sense
that the start of one's work was dependent on the end of other's work), the team
became pretty confident (a rating of 4 out 5) that they reach their goals at the end of
the sprint.
 When coming to ReTasking, the support received from the PO is highly important. And
here, the team sensed positively the presence of PO's support. Even though the sprint
end was approaching and J continued to receive extra-work, while some of his current
work needed to be ReTasked, the team was aware of the quick response of the PO in
analyzing and handling the ReTasking, and expressed its trust in a good reaction (in due
time) of the team and PO as a whole. In those conditions, the evaluation of the team
for the chances to finish the sprint with success went up to 4!
Nov, 2011 Agile tour 2011 – Hands on tracking our SCRUM improving process

19. 19
Conclusions
2 1 Accept uncertainty and plan for it
1 3
2 „Finished“ ≠ „Complete“ update the completion
criteria based on better written user stories
o INVEST
o ReTask
3 Observe the changes in order to be able to adapt
References:
o Drucker on Management: Planning for Uncertainty, The Wall Street Journal, October 21, 2008.
o Agile Estimation and the Cone of Uncertainty, Agile 101 at: http://agile101.net/2009/08/18/agile-
estimation-and-the-cone-of-uncertainty/
o The cone of uncertainty, Construx Software Development Best Practices at:
http://www.construx.com/Page.aspx?cid=1648
o The INVEST Model for User Stories, at: http://agilewisdom.wordpress.com/2011/01/21/the-
invest-model-for-user-stories/
o The Risks of SCRUM, Ralph Jocham, December 8, 2009 at:
http://www.slideshare.net/choose/ralph-jocham-the-risks-of-scrum-handout
o Iterative, Incremental development - Continuous refactoring, Richard Kronfält, September 25,
2008, at: http://scrumftw.blogspot.com/2008/09/iterative-incremental-development.html
o Scrum is a triple win proposition, Joseph Pelrine at:
http://www.metaprog.com/blogs/2009/02/scrum-is-a-triple-win-proposition/#comments
Nov, 2011 Agile tour 2011 – Hands on tracking our SCRUM improving process

20. 20
Thank you for your attention .....
....please, debate
Mircea Puiu, Dpl.Eng, Ph.D , SCRUM Master
E-mail: mircea.puiu@techteam.com
Mobile: ++40 751 155 217
Nov, 2011 Agile tour 2011 – Hands on tracking our SCRUM improving process