When every song, every movie, every book and every image can easily be found and shared via high-speed digital networks, and any actual control of the flow of content becomes a thing of the past, how will content creators and their respective industries generate growing revenues, in the future? When search becomes media, and advertising becomes content, what's the future of creativity? Which precise new generatives (>Kevin Kelly) can be nurtured to build this new ecosystem of search, content and communications, based on access to content rather than copies?
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The End Of Control and the Future of Content: Futurist Gerd Leonhard Authors@Google (San Francisco)
1. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The End of Control &
The Future of Content
Gerd Leonhard @Google San Francisco March 2 2009
www.mediafuturist.com
www.endofcontrol.com
2. Some recommended resources
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Wikinomics (Don Tapscott)
The Wealth of Networks (Yochai Benkler)
Here Comes Everybody (Clay Shirky)
Crowdsourcing (Jeff Howe)
The Technium (Kevin Kelly)
3. The global economic fabric has changed
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Some trusted old business models
seem to have suddenly stopped
working
Dominance becomes much harder to achieve
Collaboration emerges as
essential success paradigm
Open systems are starting to âwin-
winâ everywhere
4. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Yochai Benkler (The Wealth of Networks):
âCollaborative projects like Wikipedia and
Linux represent the next stage of
human organizationâ
6. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Production Competition Authority
Copyright Ownership Control
âDevelopingâ Countries âDevelopedâ Countries
Empowered Individuals Incumbent Companies
Authorized Professionals
Professional Amateurs
8. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Defining Control
Own the customer...
Control distribution...
Target and hit consumers...
Fight competition...
I win you lose
13. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Together, Broadband Culture, Mobility
and Convergence are quickly re-
defining how we think about:
⢠Privacy
⢠Authority
⢠Ownership / Copyright
⢠Value (period) i.e. âSellingâ and Marketing
⢠R&D, and Production
⢠Work
⢠Education
16. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Imagine using a software that encodes detailed
specifications of something and then seeing
that object emerge from a box on your desk no
bigger than a microwave oven...(source: ECommerce Times)
17. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
One of Googleâs challenges is to
guide content creators
and owners into this new world
19. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
How to reach the people
How not to be formerly known as
commoditized? consumers?
How to make sure they
How to maintain value? keep coming back?
What to give away
and what to sell?
20. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Content 2.0: a new ecosystem
Content and application players connect
with search engines, web portals, social
networks, brands and telecoms to
determine a new balance of power.
21. Starting in 2009:
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
⢠Total convergence of Telecom & Web Layers
⢠Deep collaboration becomes the KEY
requirement for creating new business opps
⢠Over-the top layers (search, social media...)
must come down, telecoms must move up!
22. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
All of a sudden
COMMU-
MEDIA
NICATION
&
ADVER- &
SEARCH CONTENT ENTER-
TISING TAIN-
TELE- MENT
COM
24. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The printing press
gave birth to
Copyright
The Internet
gives birth to
Sharing Rights
25. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The Sharing Economy Logic
...the Output (i.e. publish, re-
mix, co-create, life-stream...)
the Input (i.e. remuneration in
cash, attention, reputation...)
... the Thruput (i.e. usage
data, meta content, attention
trails >> New Data Economics)
32. A A really new Content Economy
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
t Ads 2.0
3rd Party
t
Data Usage
Pays
e
Affiliates
n
t
Premiums
i
I Pay UGC
o
Sharing
n Bundles
35. Imho,
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Google needs to get involved
in making âfreeâ Internet
content legal and
monetizable
36. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The Future of Content: Attention-based Income Explodes
Copy Based Revenues Attention Based Revenues
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
0
Was Is Soon Near Future Mid-term Future
47. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Uncorking the Trust Economy
http://flickr.com/photos/ryananderson/
48. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Value of âa Copyâ Value of CONTEXT
Value of Meta-Content Value of Experiences
Value of Packaging
Value Trends (by Gerd Leonhard)
Value of Context
100%
Value of Experience
Value of Meta-Content
Value of Packaging
75%
50%
25%
Value of âa Copyâ
0%
Was Is Soon The Future
49. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
21st century content economics
influenced by Kevin Kelly, Chris Anderson, Don Tapscott, Yochai Benkler...
Conversation
Convenience
Selection / Filtering
Packaging
Individualization
Immediacy
Trust
50. Content Economy Trends
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Music Video Games Books Mags & Print
Percentage of Revenues from Digital Services
100%
75%
50%
25%
0%
2008 2009 2010 2012 2015
51. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Filter Failure
Clay Shirky, author of quot;Here Comes Everybodyquot; and
professor of new media at New York University:
We suffer quot;not from information
overload but filtering failureâ
52. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The Ubiquity of Content creates
the increasing need for Filtering &
Packaging - and in some cases,
Filters will be paid-for
while the Content
may...not!
http://flickr.com/photos/meganmcintosh/
53. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
2009: The Redefinition of âTelecomâ
Experience Platform
Service Pipe
Content Pipe
Data
Pipe
54. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Telecom Control Level
Google Opportunity
10
7.5
5
2.5
0
Calls SMS Data Content Services Experiences
56. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Information > Conversation
Interruption > Engagement
Annoyance > Entertainment
This is an Ad > This is Content
57. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
⢠Display ads are the past -
engagement, involvement
and interactivity are the future
⢠The currency is Personal
Information & Data: getting it /
buying it, renting it, borrowing
it, selling it... keeping it
⢠The new, old deal: in
exchange for value, we
surrender valuable data
⢠The new creative mission:
products and services that
have advertising and
marketing built-in!
62. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Source: Flickr.com/unknown
Hollywoodâs Control
Crisis is a huge
opportunity.
63. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The fight for Control was a fight for
Distribution.
The flight for Attention is a fight for
Trust.
The beneficiaries of Control were
Monopolies.
The beneficiaries of Trust are those
that Collaborate
64. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Thanks for listening
Gerd Leonhard
www.mediafuturist.com
Twitter.com/gleonhard
gerd@mediafuturist.com