"Armed violence reduction within the post-2015 agenda" Regional Review Conference on the Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence and Development Geneva, Switzerland | 8-9 July 2014

1. 9 July 2014
Tim Midgley, Conflict and Security
Advisor, Saferworld
tmidgley@saferworld.org.uk
Armed violence & the post-2015
development agenda

2. Impacts of conflict & violence on development
‘A country that experienced major violence over the period from 1981 to
2005 has a poverty rate 21 percentage points higher than a country that
saw no violence’
World Development Report 2011
‘32 of the 46 countries at the bottom of the HDI are conflict-affected’
Global CSO joint statement, September 2012
‘We project that, by 2025, the locus of global poverty will overwhelmingly
be in fragile, mainly low-income and African, states’
Andrew Rogerson & Homi Kharas

3. How best to integrate peace across the framework?

4. Three-sided
indicators
Combine
measures of
 Capacity
 ‘Objective’
situation
 Perceptions

5. Three-sided
indicators
Tell us:
 The effort
going in
 Progress in
terms of ‘real
events’
 Whether the
public is
satisfied

6. Illicit financial
flows target

7. Arms, drugs &
conflict
commodities
target

8. Thanks for listening!
More information:
saferworld.org.uk/what/post-2015
Contact:
tmidgley@saferworld.org.uk

10. Impacts of conflict & violence on MDGs
Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
 Countries affected by violence account for:
 60% undernourished
 61% impoverished
 For every ten places that a country rises up the
Global Peace Index, per capita income↑ US$3,100

11. Impacts of conflict & violence on MDGs
Achieve universal primary education
 Countries affected by violence account for:
 77% of children not in primary school
 59% of children not in secondary school
 Somalia: loss of a generation of higher education
described as a ‘national disaster’
 DRC 70% of children no access to school
 Timor-Leste conflict: 90% of schools
destroyed/badly damaged

12. Impacts of conflict & violence on MDGs
Promote gender equality and empower
women
 Institute for Economics & Peace: less peaceful
countries have lower levels of gender equality
 GBV a particularly abhorrent aspect of conflict (S
Sudan, Chechnya, Algeria, NE India, Sierra Leone,
Sri Lanka, Bosnia, Kosovo…)
 Post conflict: post-war Cambodia – est. 75% of
women experienced domestic violence

13. Impacts of conflict & violence on MDGs
Reduce child mortality
 Countries affected by violence account for:
 70% of infant deaths
 71% of child under 5 deaths
 UNICEF: 8 of the 10 countries with the highest
under-5 mortality are in conflict/fragile situations

14. Impacts of conflict & violence on MDGs
Improve maternal health
 Economic Commission for Africa: 2008 all 8
countries with the highest maternal mortality ratio
were in/post-conflict
 South Sudan: 2011 preliminary est. of maternal
mortality - 2,054 deaths per 100,000 live births
(the highest in the world)

15. Impacts of conflict & violence on MDGs
Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases
 Countries affected by violence account for:
 43% of persons living w/ HIV/AIDS
 Geneva Declaration:
 poor living conditions, sexual violence, prostitution &
infection of combatants can assist spread of disease
 correlation between homicide & HIV infection rates
 Conflict-disease relationship is complex - evidence
not clear

16. Impacts of conflict & violence on MDGs
Ensure environmental sustainability
 Countries affected by violence account for:
 65% of people w/o access to improved sanitation
 Geneva Declaration:
 Conflict and armed violence accelerate growth of
slums
 Changes in the proportion of pop. using improved
drinking water sources & sanitation significantly
correlated with levels of violence

17. Goal areas & targets suggested by peacebuilding CSOs to OWG April 2014
Peaceful and non-violent societies
• Reduce by x% the number of violent deaths per 100,000 and reduce the number
of people from all social groups affected by all forms of violence
• People from all social groups feel safe and have confidence in security provision
• People from all social groups have effective remedies to injustice, and access to
and confidence in effective, accountable and impartial justice provision
• Tensions, grievances and disputes within society are being resolved peacefully,
inclusively and constructively
Governance, rule of law and capable institutions
• Ensure that people from all social groups enjoy freedoms of speech, association,
peaceful protest, civic engagement and access to information
• Ensure people from all social groups can participate in and affect political
processes and decision making without fear, at national, sub-national and local
levels
• Reduce by X% bribery and corruption and ensure that all those involved are held
accountable

18. Gender equality and women’s empowerment
• Prevent and eliminate all forms of violence against women, girls and boys, and
hold perpetrators to account
• Increase women’s economic empowerment and women’s political participation
and influence on decision-making at all levels
Employment and decent work for all
• People from all social groups, and especially youth, have opportunities for decent
livelihoods, the ability to develop skills and accumulate economic assets, and an
equitable share in economic growth
Environmental sustainability
• Ensure fair, transparent, and sustainable management of natural resources,
including land, oil and minerals, and the equitable sharing of benefits from their
use, at national, sub-national and local levels
• Ensure that people from all social groups have secure land tenure and decisions
are taken through an open and accountable process
• Ensure, at local, national and regional levels, that environmental and natural
disasters are effectively managed and mitigated
Social services
• People from all social groups have fair access to social services and resources