The document discusses the current state of emerging market economies and the US economy. It notes that the economic momentum in both the US and other OECD countries is currently in an upward phase. It also discusses potential risks on the horizon, including high debt levels, a flattening yield curve, rising recession risks, and dependence on foreign financing for some emerging markets. The document analyzes factors that could impact future economic growth, such as a potential US tax reform, China's credit growth, and volatility in commodity prices.

1. USA – Pays émergents
Tout se passe très bien…
…jusqu’à présent
November 2017
Philippe Ledent
Senior Economist ING Belgium

2. 2
Le momentum économique surprend
positivement

3. 3
Le cycle économique est en phase ascendante
Un indicateur du cycle:
Indicateur avancé de l’OCDE
(calibré à 100 = moyenne de long terme)
USA
OCDE

4. 4
Le cycle économique est en phase ascendante
Un indicateur du cycle:
Indicateur avancé de l’OCDE
(calibré à 100 = moyenne de long terme)

5. 5
Vers une nouvelle accélération de
l’économie américaine?
Croissance PIB yoy %
Nouvelles commandes
3m leading

6. Les entreprises et les ménages restent confiants
6

7. 7
Une réforme fiscale pourrait doper
l’économie US

8. 8
L’inflation sous-jacente proche de son point de
retournement?

9. 9
Mouvement
de taux dans
les 12 mois
QE
Date
prochaines
réunions
Autres
mesures
Politique monétaire
+ 75 bp
Réduit la taille du
bilan
Taux 3M
dans
12M
Taux 10 ans
dans 12M
2,00 2,90
13/12
30/01
Persistently easy monetary policy might also eventually
lead to increased leverage and other developments, with
adverse implications for financial stability. For these
reasons, and given that monetary policy affects
economic activity and inflation with a substantial lag, it
would be imprudent to keep monetary policy on hold
until inflation is back to 2 percent.

10. 10
Here are some of Trump’s promises
Pull out of TPP
Build a wall with
Mexico / tariffs
Curtail immigration
Label China a currency
manipulator / tariffs
Pull out of WTO
Renegotiate / rip up
NAFTA
Protect US manufacturing
jobs
Cut taxes (household /
business)
Invest in infrastructure
Rebuild the military
$
$
$
Key:
Security Fiscal Trade

11. • The US government hit its $19.8 trillion debt
level in March and has been using
“extraordinary measures” to continue
operations
• The deadline for a deal is now around
December 8, but contentious issues, such as
border wall/immigration means a deal may
not be reached
• If no agreement they could extend current
spending authority through fiscal year 2018
• Tensions in Washington could result in
government shutdown and possible debt
default fears
11
Government shutdown fears

12. 12
La volatilité des marchés est faible, les spreads
de crédit sont au plus bas

13. La yield curve reste trop plate…
13

14. L’indice de risque de récession de la Fed de NY est
encore faible…mais il augmente
14

15. L’endettement est très élevé
15

16. 16
Le cycle du crédit s’est déjà retourné
Corporate debt
(inverted scale)
Loan Survey:
Credit demand

17. Taux de défaut sur les emprunts hypothécaires
(% du total)
17

18. 18
Chine: l’économie “Stop and Go”

19. Evolution de l’économie chinoise
19
Activité dans
l’industrie et la
construction
Activité
dans les
services

20. 20
Le commerce extérieur chinois redémarre
Hundreds millions USD

21. Pression sur les prix des matières
premières
21
Prix des matières premières au cours
des 12 derniers mois
Demande Chinoise et prix des matières
premières

22. Stabilisation dans les pays BRIC
22

23. 23
Le boom du crédit chinois peut faire
peur…
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
Spain housing crash Japan bubble
Thailand during Asian crisis China credit surgeSource: IMF
Ratio crédit/PIB lors de précédentes crises

24. Beaucoup de pays émergents sont tributaires de
financements extérieurs
24
Current Account (% GDP)

25. Certain of the statements contained in this release are statements of
future expectations and other forward-looking statements. These
expectations are based on management’s current views and assumptions
and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Actual results,
performance or events may differ materially from those in such statements
due to, among other things, (i) general economic conditions, in particular
economic conditions in ING’s core markets, (ii) changes in the availability
of, and costs associated with, sources of liquidity such as interbank
funding, as well as conditions in the credit markets generally, including
changes in borrower and counterparty creditworthiness, (iii) the frequency
and severity of insured loss events, (iv) mortality and morbidity levels and
trends, (v) persistency levels, (vi) interest rate levels, (vii) currency
exchange rates, (viii) general competitive factors, (ix) changes in laws and
regulations, and (x) changes in the policies of governments and/or
regulatory authorities. ING assumes no obligation to update any forward-
looking information contained in this document.
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