Durante la próxima década la aceleración de las innovaciones digitales, golpeará a todos los negocios establecidos y exitosos con enormes disrupciones, creando oportunidades que lamentablemente no sabrán, en su mayoría, aprovechar. Esta nueva realidad creara nuevos espacios para Startups ágiles y dinámicas que podrán capturar la oportunidad de crear nuevo valor económico y social. En esta conferencia el Profesor invitado de ESPAE, Carlos Baradello, podrá conectar las tecnologías emergentes de Silicon Valley con la realidad empresarial de América Latina.

1. Carlos S. Baradello, PhD
General Partner, Alaya Capital Partners
Managing Partner, Sausalito Ventures
Professor of Global Innovation & Entrepreneurship
Innovaciones Tecnológicas:
Oportunidades y Riesgos
las disrupciones que acosan las empresas!

5. Evangelize
for
Exponential
Adoption
Lead the
Change
of the
“Order
of
Things”
Disrupt
Incumbents
who
benefitted
from the
“Prior
Order”

6. Evangelize
for
Exponential
Adoption
Lead the
Change
of the
“Order
of
Things”
Disrupt
Incumbents
who
benefitted
from the
“Prior
Order”
Better & Faster

7. 1. Favorable rules of the game -- pro-business formation.
2. Knowledge intensity -- pro new ideas.
3. A high-quality and mobile work force.
4. Results-oriented meritocracy -- Talent and skills are king.
5. A climate that rewards risk-taking and tolerates failure.
6. Open business environment -- win-win exchanges of
knowledge.
7. Universities and research institutes that interact with industry.
8. Collaborations among business, government, and nonprofits.
9. High quality of life -- a beautiful place to work, live and play.
10.Specialized business infrastructure: Financial, Legal,
Headhunters, Accounting, Consultants, etc.
(1) The Silicon Valley Edge, Edited by Chong-Moon Lee, William F. Miller, M. Gong Hancock, and Henry S. Rowen, Stanford University Press, 2000.
Ten Key enabling characteristics of
Silicon Valley (SV) propelling new
ventures(1)?

8. Framing The Perfect Storm
Established
Order of Things
New
Order of Things
Linear
50+ Years of
MOORE LAW Exponential
Physical
100+ Years of
METCALFE LAW Virtual
People LOVE or HATE Machine
Ownership
SHARING
ECONOMY Access
Scarcity
Marginal
ZERO COST Abundance
Disconnected
POWER OF
COMBINATORIAL Connected
ANALOG DIGITAL

9. Framing The Perfect Storm
Established
Order of Things
New
Order of Things
Linear
50+ Years of
MOORE LAW Exponential
Physical
100+ Years of
METCALFE LAW Virtual
People LOVE or HATE Machine
Ownership
SHARING
ECONOMY Access
Scarcity
Marginal
ZERO COST Abundance
Disconnected
POWER OF
COMBINATORIAL Connected
ANALOG DIGITAL

10. Framing The Perfect Storm
Established
Order of Things
New
Order of Things
Linear
50+ Years of
MOORE LAW Exponential
Physical/atoms
100+ Years of
METCALFE LAW Virtual/bits
People LOVE or HATE Machine
Ownership
SHARING
ECONOMY Access
Scarcity
Marginal
ZERO COST Abundance
Disconnected
POWER OF
COMBINATORIAL Connected
ANALOG DIGITAL

11. Framing The Perfect Storm
Established
Order of Things
New
Order of Things
Linear
50+ Years of
MOORE LAW Exponential
Physical/atoms
100+ Years of
METCALFE LAW Virtual
People LOVE or HATE Machine
Ownership
SHARING
ECONOMY Access
Scarcity
Marginal
ZERO COST Abundance
Disconnected
POWER OF
COMBINATORIAL Connected
ANALOG DIGITAL

12. Framing The Perfect Storm
Established
Order of Things
New
Order of Things
Linear
50+ Years of
MOORE LAW Exponential
Physical/atoms
100+ Years of
METCALFE LAW Virtual/bits
People LOVE or HATE Machine
Ownership
SHARING
ECONOMY Access
Scarcity
Marginal
ZERO COST Abundance
Disconnected
POWER OF
COMBINATORIAL Connected
ANALOG DIGITAL

13. Framing The Perfect Storm
Established
Order of Things
New
Order of Things
Linear
50+ Years of
MOORE LAW Exponential
Physical/atoms
100+ Years of
METCALFE LAW Virtual/bits
People LOVE or HATE Machine
Ownership
SHARING
ECONOMY Access
Scarcity
Marginal
ZERO COST Abundance
Disconnected
POWER OF
COMBINATORIAL Connected
ANALOG DIGITAL

14. Framing The Perfect Storm
Established
Order of Things
New
Order of Things
Linear
50+ Years of
MOORE LAW Exponential
Physical/atoms
100+ Years of
METCALFE LAW Virtual/bits
People LOVE or HATE Machine
Ownership
SHARING
ECONOMY Access
Scarcity
Marginal
ZERO COST Abundance
Disconnected
POWER OF
COMBINATORIAL Connected
ANALOG DIGITAL

15. Framing The Perfect Storm
Established
Order of Things
New
Order of Things
Linear
50+ Years of
MOORE LAW Exponential
Physical/atoms
100+ Years of
METCALFE LAW Virtual/bits
People LOVE or HATE Machine
Ownership
SHARING
ECONOMY Access
Scarcity
Marginal
ZERO COST Abundance
Disconnected
POWER OF
COMBINATORIAL Connected
ANALOG DIGITAL
The
Established
Firm:
“The
Incumbent”
The
Young
Startup:
“The
Disruptor”
Vs.

16. Are Corporations Worried About
Disruptions to their Businesses? = YES!YES!
How risky is your company of being disrupted
by emerging technologies/companies?
41.4 %Extremely or very much at risk

17. Are Corporations Worried About
Disruptions to their Businesses? = YES!
Doing something about preventing it?
YES!
NO!

18. Board of Directors

19. Why Successful Corporations are Unable to do
something about preventing disruptions?WHY?
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Bigger the corporation higher the importance
given to INNOVATION

20. Why Successful Corporations are Unable to do
something about preventing disruptions?WHY?
1. Fear to cannibalize their own business
2. Risk adverse… Too much to lose,
3. Installed in the comfort zone:
culture, processes, knowledge
of technology & markets,
4.
5.
6.

21. Why Successful Corporations are Unable to do
something about preventing disruptions?WHY?
1. Fear to cannibalize their own business
2. Risk adverse… Too much to lose,
3. Installed in the comfort zone:
culture, processes, knowledge
of technology & markets,
4.
5.
6.

22. . 22

23. Mario Andretti (1940 - )
Formula 1, IndyCar, World Sportcar & NSCAR Winner
“If everything seems
under control,
you’re just
not going
fast enough”

24. 1. Favorable rules of the game -- pro-business formation.
2. Knowledge intensity -- pro new ideas.
3. A high-quality and mobile work force.
4. Results-oriented meritocracy -- Talent and skills are king.
5. A climate that rewards risk-taking and tolerates failure.
6. Open business environment -- win-win exchanges of
knowledge.
7. Universities and research institutes that interact with
industry.
8. Collaborations among business, government, and
nonprofits.
9. High quality of life -- a beautiful place to work, live and
play.(1) The Silicon Valley Edge, Edited by Chong-Moon Lee, William F. Miller, M. Gong Hancock, and Henry S. Rowen, Stanford University Press, 2000.
Ten Key enabling characteristics of
Silicon Valley (SV) propelling new
ventures(1)?

25. Today’s Business Disruptions should….
Speed
of
Change
Large
Economic
Impact
Large
Society
Impact
Affect Large
Global
Markets
1B =
109
Life
Changing
½ - ¼
of a
Life-
time
$1T =
1012
Enabled by
Rapidly
Improving
Technologies
Change
the
Status-Quo

26. Today’s Business Disruptions should….
Speed
of
Change
Large
Economic
Impact
Large
Society
Impact
Affect Large
Global
Markets
1B =
109
Life
Changing
½ - ¼
of a
Life-
time
$1T =
1012
Enabled by
Rapidly
Improving
Technologies
Change
the
Status-Quo

27. Disruptions enabled by Innovation:
We are living Exponential Times
• Ability to impact large markets (1B people)
• Ability to create large new wealth ($1B)
• Ability to create impact many times in a
lifetime (every 10 years)
• Leverage exponential technologies
• Adoption happens faster and new uses
identified
• Everything and everyone connected
• National boundaries and identity eroding

28. Disruptions enabled by Innovation:
We are living Extraordinary Times
• Paradigm shifts: No more “sacred cows”
• Democratization of access to information,
markets, finance, knowledge, etc.
• Deconstruction and Reconstruction of established
businesses and industries
• Global phenomena…many participants
• It is more than wealth creation, it is a lifestyle,
driven by innovation and empowerment!
• Often enabled by an emerging disruptive
technologies…

29. HIGH COST
$€£¥̗$
Markets Ripe for Disruption
ASYMETRIC
INFORMATION
MISALIGNED
INCENTIVES

30. 1. Disintermediation
2. Mobilization
3. Digitalization
4. Datafication
5. Cognification
6. Automation
7. Robotization
8. Anticipation
9. Personalization
10. Platformization
11. Augmentation
12. Virtualization
13. Demonetization
14. Democratization
15. Unbundling
New
Disruptive
Business
Models
Enabling
Disruptive
Technologies

31. Exponential Fall of the Cost of Key Technologies
↓ x(0.44/yr.)N
↓ x(0.42/yr.)N
↓ x(0.62/yr.)N
↓ x(0.84/yr.)N
↓ x(0.61/yr.)N
↓ x(0.45/yr.)N
↓ x(0.37/yr.)N
↓ x(0.31/yr.)N
Reduction Factor (Y)N
Y = reduction factor in one year
N = number of years
0<Y<1 and N is an integer > 1

32. History Lesson: Successful
Firms can die FAST!
… and this is just the beginning!
Remember if there is an asymmetry, there is an
opportunity…

33. Business Life Cycle
Incubation
&
Acceleration
Value Creation Value Destruction

34. Business Life Cycle:
Time compression

35. Business Life Cycle:
Time compression

37. VP R&D CEO CFO COO

38. Technology Tipping Point #1: 90% of the
population will have unlimited and free data storage by 2020
 90% of the data has been created in the last two years,
 Google Photos and Amazon already moving into that direction,
 Next step will be free ad-supported,
 Enabled by continuous drop of hard drive cost per Gigabyte.

39. Technology Tipping Point #2 : 90% of the
population will have a supercomputer in their pockets by 2023
 Around the world, in particular in emerging countries, increasingly
people are using their smartphone more than PC’s; and is
becoming the natural connection to the internet,
 As its exponentially gains computing power and price continues to
drop, the speed of adoption increases.
 Moore’s Law makes it cheaper/more powerful, while Metcalfe Law
makes it more valuable!

40. Technology Tipping Point #3: The first robotic
pharmacist will arrive in the USA by 2019
 Robots have already a big presence in manufacturing and
behind-the-scene activities,
 New roles for robots will emerge in the service sector,
 Pharmacy dispensers will be just one of them.

41. Technology Tipping Point #4 : More than 50% of
the Internet residential traffic will be from by 2024
 Today most of the residential internet traffic is for personal
consumption in the form of communication or entertainment,
 This will quickly change in the coming years in favor of home
automation, security, productivity tools, etc.

42. Technology Tipping Point #5: One Trillion sensors
connected to the internet by 2022
 The exponential decrease of the networking and sensor costs will
enable all kind of devices to become connected,
 From the clothes you wear to your bottle of wine to be on-line,
 Every physical product could eventually become connected to
ubiquitous communication infrastructure.

43. Technology Tipping Point #6:
10% of the world population -- that is about 1B -- will be
wearing connected clothes by 2022
 The exponential decrease of the networking and sensor costs will
enable all kind of devices to become connected,
 From the clothes you wear to your bottle of wine to be on-line,
 Every physical product could eventually become connected to
ubiquitous communication infrastructure.

44. Technology Tipping Point #7:
The first 3D-printed car will be in production by 2022
 3D Printers increasingly becoming more powerful printing more
complex objects from all kind of materials,
 3D printing prototypes in the car industry is already common,
 Audi has already shown the ability to print complex metal parts,
 Local Motors, plans to sell printed cars, shown above.

45. Technology Tipping Point #8: The first implantable
mobile phone will become commercially available by 2025
 Being attached to your smart phone will take a whole new
meaning,
 The device will not only communicate with other persons or
objects, but it will track and report biological data, health
conditions, and will include brainwave communications,
 Nothing to be surprised, as pacemakers and cochlear implants are
now-a-days daily occurrence…

46. Technology Tipping Point #9: The first
transplanted of a 3D-printed liver will occur by 2024
 3D-printers are in use across multiple applications in health care.
From dentistry to orthopedics, physicians are replicating human
parts with 3D-printers.
 Bio-printing which combines bioengineering with 3D-printing is
actively seeking to grow useable artificial organs.

47. Technology Tipping Point #10: 10% of the reading
glasses will become connected by 2023
 Google had a first approximation with Google Glass.
 A new way of interacting with information sources as the
connected glasses become widely used,
 Users will have direct access to internet applications for an
enhanced/augmented reality experience,
 Eye-tracking technology will allow to control the interface hands-
free

48. Incremental vs. Radical Innovations
MANAGING KNOWN
KNOWLEDGE
MANAGING UNKNOWN
KNOWLEDGE
78% 22%
Innovation Portfolios allocated to
continuous/incremental improvements
iterating on the status-quo :
1. Cost reductions,
2. Productivity/operational
efficiencies,
3. Improve customer satisfaction,
4. Enhancing existing products/
services,
5. Repositioning existing products
Innovation Portfolios allocated to
disruptive innovations:
1. Developing new products and
services,
2. New business models,
3. New markets enabled by new
Technology/Business Models
4. New to the firm P/S,
5. New to the world P/S.

49. Innovation Sources
BEING PART OF THE “RIGHT” CONVERSATIONS
Incremental
Conversations
Disruptive
Conversations
YOU
&
Your Firm

50. KEY FINDINGS
CORPORATIONS
Talk the talk
Don’t walk the walk
85% 78%
SAY Innovation
Critical
DO Incremental
Changes
High-Performing
CORPORATIONS
are First Movers
35% x2
ARE
first movers
Risk
Takers

51. The Firm Corporate Entrepreneurship Program

52. Every Industry Is Being Digitally Disrupted
 World’s largest taxi company owns no taxis
 Largest accommodation provider owns no real estate
 Largest phone companies owns no telco infrastructure
 World’s most valuable retailer has no inventory
 Most popular media owner creates no content
 World’s largest movie house owns no cinemas
 Largest mobile software vendors don’t write the apps

61. George Bernard Shaw Irish playwright who received
the Nobel Prize for Literature in 1925.
George Bernard Shaw (1856--1950)
“The reasonable man adapts himself to the world;
the unreasonable one persists
in trying to adapt the world
to himself…
Therefore, all progress
depends on
the unreasonable man.”

62. William Ford Gibson, American-Canadian writer who has
been called the "noir prophet" of the cyberpunk subgenre of
science fiction.
William Ford Gibson (1948 -- present)
The future is
already here,
it's just not very
evenly
distributed.

67. Carlos S. Baradello, PhD
Cell: +1 415 342 6663
E-mail: carlos@sausalitoventures.com
Firms:
www.SausalitoVentures.com
www.Alaya-Capital.com
www.Hult.edu
Blog: www.CarlosBaradello.com